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Discussion of 2014 and 2015 pitching rotations
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 13:58:34 GMT -5
Well first of all, I said highly unlikely, not impossible, but Porcello has no control so he's out and Masterson can't be traded so your idea of turning 2 of Buchholz, Miley and Kelly into a very good starter doesn't seem likely to me. Too much money would be owed to those 2 pitchers. What team would want to take that much money back and give up something? I'd think it would more likely be one of them plus a prospect for a rental. Or Kelly and Craig for a rental, hey wait.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 11, 2014 14:09:09 GMT -5
I'm ok with the rotation as is now. I'm not opposed to improving it, I just don't think we need to force any deals that are short sighted to improve it. It won't be the best rotation in the league but I don't think that is important, especially with the high powered lineup I think we have.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Dec 11, 2014 14:17:51 GMT -5
I'm ok with the rotation as is now. I'm not opposed to improving it, I just don't think we need to force any deals that are short sighted to improve it. It won't be the best rotation in the league but I don't think that is important, especially with the high powered lineup I think we have. I agree with not doing something irrational and short sighted - however I don't think the rotation as currently constructed is good enough. Masterson is a huge question mark. Miley is an innings guy, but not sure how effective he'll be in the AL. Porcello and Buch should be fine. Kelly is ok. I have a feeling Miley is going to get flipped for Hamels. Miley, Marrero, Johnson, Cecchini for Hamels is what a buddy of mine predicts and I kind of agree. Marrero can play SS for them. Miley would be in their rotation, Johnson would prob push for a spot mid-year and Cecchini can play 3rd. Makes a bunch of sense for them IMO.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 11, 2014 14:18:27 GMT -5
I think people criticizing the 5 #3's "makeup" of this rotation should take some time to really look at rotations across the league. This is our competition so far, from Fangraphs Depth Charts with projections.
IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR 188.0 7.9 2.7 0.6 .304 70.8 % 3.46 3.33 2.8 Alex Cobb 179.0 7.8 3.4 0.9 .299 70.7 % 3.93 3.89 1.8 Chris Archer 169.0 8.1 3.2 1.3 .292 75.0 % 3.96 4.34 0.8 Jake Odorizzi 160.0 7.9 3.9 1.0 .291 73.0 % 4.00 4.26 0.8 Matt Moore 122.0 8.1 2.8 1.0 .292 75.4 % 3.50 3.85 1.5 Drew Smyly
IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR 188.0 7.1 2.5 1.0 .299 70.5 % 3.98 3.96 2.3 CC Sabathia 188.0 8.0 1.8 1.0 .297 73.3 % 3.45 3.54 3.2 Masahiro Tanaka 169.0 7.5 2.1 1.3 .295 73.1 % 3.96 4.16 1.9 Michael Pineda 166.0 7.0 2.8 1.0 .302 69.6 % 4.19 4.14 1.5 Ivan Nova 132.0 7.3 3.5 1.2 .298 71.3 % 4.39 4.55 0.8 David Phelps
IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR 188.0 6.9 2.8 1.3 .296 72.1 % 4.23 4.50 1.5 R.A. Dickey 188.0 7.9 2.5 0.9 .308 70.7 % 3.75 3.54 3.2 Marcus Stroman 191.0 5.5 2.2 1.2 .304 70.2 % 4.43 4.48 1.5 Mark Buehrle 166.0 8.6 3.0 1.2 .302 72.8 % 4.07 4.13 1.8 Drew Hutchison 113.0 7.3 4.8 0.9 .306 68.5 % 4.82 4.60 0.5 Aaron Sanchez
IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR 188.0 6.8 2.9 1.3 .293 72.3 % 4.35 4.62 0.9 Chris Tillman 169.0 6.8 2.2 1.3 .291 73.6 % 3.93 4.29 1.5 Wei-Yin Chen 162.0 7.3 3.0 1.2 .297 71.4 % 4.20 4.27 1.4 Kevin Gausman 129.0 6.2 2.9 1.5 .291 72.1 % 4.56 4.94 0.4 Miguel Gonzalez 122.0 7.7 3.1 1.2 .294 72.9 % 4.04 4.33 1.0 Bud Norris
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2014 14:22:01 GMT -5
why, none of those teams are winning the World Series.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2014 14:30:05 GMT -5
This offense could also be really, really good for the next two years, to the point where they could have the firepower to win even without your traditional top flight guy. Obviously I still think getting that "1" is still in the plans for either right now (Hamels), at the deadline, or next offseason, but if guys like Rusney, Betts, and Bogaerts perform like they appear to be capable of, that's a deadly lineup, with potentially the only below average hitter being Vazquez
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2014 14:32:29 GMT -5
This offense could also be really, really good for the next two years, to the point where they could have the firepower to win even without your traditional top flight guy. Obviously I still think getting that "1" is still in the plans for either right now (Hamels), at the deadline, or next offseason, but if guys like Rusney, Betts, and Bogaerts perform like they appear to be capable of, that's a deadly lineup, with potentially the only below average hitter being Vazquez The offense could also be very mediocre; no real guarentees there. I like the offense, but we need to be honest with it.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 11, 2014 14:33:27 GMT -5
why, none of those teams are winning the World Series. That's our division the AL East. See if we win the most games out of all the teams in our division we make the playoffs, and avoid the 1 game wild card playoff. See we will also play each team in our division 18-19 times which is about 45% of our schedule.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 14:34:25 GMT -5
why, none of those teams are winning the World Series. Disagree Ventura fell off this year in the second half. Royals rotation wasn't good. Giants rotation was weak outside of Bumgarner. The playoffs are a crapshoot
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Post by knuckledown on Dec 11, 2014 14:34:49 GMT -5
I think people criticizing the 5 #3's "makeup" of this rotation should take some time to really look at rotations across the league. This is our competition so far, from Fangraphs Depth Charts with projections. Headed in the same direction, all fWAR 2014 steamer projections: Buchholz 2.3 Porcello 2.5 Miley 2.3 Kelly 1.5 Masterson 1.5 That rotation adds up to 10.1, league average last year 8.88. Giants were 9.0. Last year's fWAR for these guys, for reference: Scherzer 4.1 Lester 3.6 Hamels 2.5 Shields 3.0 J Zimmermann 2.8 Fister 2.0 I am pleasantly surprised by this, but not wowed. If Ben adds anybody on that second list (minus the obvious), it would be helpful, but some are more relative to value than others. given the price per WAR, it looks like good business, but still maybe not enough. The Buchholz steamer projection is either laughable or 1.5 WAR low, depending on your crystal ball.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 14:35:31 GMT -5
why, none of those teams are winning the World Series. one of those teams or the Red Sox are winning the division. And then once in the playoffs...
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2014 14:35:38 GMT -5
This offense could also be really, really good for the next two years, to the point where they could have the firepower to win even without your traditional top flight guy. Obviously I still think getting that "1" is still in the plans for either right now (Hamels), at the deadline, or next offseason, but if guys like Rusney, Betts, and Bogaerts perform like they appear to be capable of, that's a deadly lineup, with potentially the only below average hitter being Vazquez The offense could also be very mediocre; no real guarentees there. I like the offense, but we need to be honest with it. Meh, I guess. But if the offense is mediocre, even getting Hamels won't make them a legit contender. There are still plenty of pieces in their lineup that will likely produce very well barring injury. Pedroia at 100% should be a significant step up from last year. Hanley/Sandoval will be major upgrades who have been consistent producers, again health the factor. Mookie was sensational once he got playing time, and Xander came on strong at the end of the season. Sure, mediocre is probably within the realm of possibilities, but I think being very good is far more likely
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Post by dcsoxfan on Dec 11, 2014 14:39:31 GMT -5
I bet they make a serious push for Shields. It would fit perfectly with everything else they have done.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 11, 2014 15:07:03 GMT -5
With Shields, they are up against the Giants, and the Giants outbid the Cubs and the Sox for Lester. I suspect they will make a very strong bid for Shields.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Dec 11, 2014 15:09:12 GMT -5
I see them making another move I think this is a decent rotation. Maybe they move Buchholz or Kelly or one of them to the bullpen.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 11, 2014 15:09:55 GMT -5
I think people criticizing the 5 #3's "makeup" of this rotation should take some time to really look at rotations across the league. This is our competition so far, from Fangraphs Depth Charts with projections. Headed in the same direction, all fWAR 2014 steamer projections: Buchholz 2.3 Porcello 2.5 Miley 2.3 Kelly 1.5 Masterson 1.5 That rotation adds up to 10.1, league average last year 8.88. Giants were 9.0. Last year's fWAR for these guys, for reference: Scherzer 4.1 Lester 3.6 Hamels 2.5 Shields 3.0 J Zimmermann 2.8 Fister 2.0 I am pleasantly surprised by this, but not wowed. If Ben adds anybody on that second list (minus the obvious), it would be helpful, but some are more relative to value than others. given the price per WAR, it looks like good business, but still maybe not enough. The Buchholz steamer projection is either laughable or 1.5 WAR low, depending on your crystal ball. Pitcher projections are very iffy. In this case, it is even worse. How do you project Buchholz? It's simply a guess. The same is true with Masterson. I put no weight on these projections. And I hope the Sox don't either, and get one more SP, a top of the rotation guy.
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Post by knuckledown on Dec 11, 2014 15:32:18 GMT -5
Headed in the same direction, all fWAR 2014 steamer projections: Buchholz 2.3 Porcello 2.5 Miley 2.3 Kelly 1.5 Masterson 1.5 That rotation adds up to 10.1, league average last year 8.88. Giants were 9.0. Last year's fWAR for these guys, for reference: Scherzer 4.1 Lester 3.6 Hamels 2.5 Shields 3.0 J Zimmermann 2.8 Fister 2.0 I am pleasantly surprised by this, but not wowed. If Ben adds anybody on that second list (minus the obvious), it would be helpful, but some are more relative to value than others. given the price per WAR, it looks like good business, but still maybe not enough. The Buchholz steamer projection is either laughable or 1.5 WAR low, depending on your crystal ball. Pitcher projections are very iffy. In this case, it is even worse. How do you project Buchholz? It's simply a guess. The same is true with Masterson. I put no weight on these projections. And I hope the Sox don't either, and get one more SP, a top of the rotation guy. Agreed. Buchholz being the best example of those up there. To me, that's the appeal of steamer, it's a guess and all it does it start a discussion. Add Shields, subtract Kelly, you have 11.6, which would be - according to fWAR - an excellent rotation. As much as we are used to being spoiled Red Sox fans because John Henry can afford shiny things, that doesn't mean that we can just buy and trade for the five best pitchers in the game, which seems to be the attitude around here sometimes. In aggregate, these guys could be really good and I think that's not getting enough play. Shields would probably be a good pickup if the RS can get him, but he will likely deteriorate at the end of his next contract and is therefore worth some caution.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 16:40:50 GMT -5
The more I think about these moves and the more I look at the numbers, I am ecstatic about what Cherington has done. He has barely given anything of value up, has completely filled the rotation with possibly 4 #3 pitchers, all of whom have greater upside. Porcello is 25 and could still be getting better. And he's going to a team with better IF defense. Miley has a good bit of upside as well. He could improve from Vazquez' pitch framing and a better IF defense. Masterson we can hope that he was bad last season because of injury. Even a moderate return to form has him as a #3. Buchholz has nowhere to go but up. Let's hope an entire offseason which he didn't get last year will help him realize some of his upside.
And I still doubt we're done. I would not be surprised to see something crazy done, like a Max Scherzer signing or Kelly or Buccholz, Craig/Victorino for Cueto or Zimmermann or Taijuan Walker/Paxton. They still have the financial maneuverability and prospects to do anything they want and there are way fewer holes to fill.
Brilliant job so far. Could not be more pleased. I would not be surprised if someone like Miley has a better season than Samardzija.
Oh and go get Moncada to replace whichever prospects we trade.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2014 16:57:56 GMT -5
The offense could also be very mediocre; no real guarentees there. I like the offense, but we need to be honest with it. Meh, I guess. But if the offense is mediocre, even getting Hamels won't make them a legit contender. There are still plenty of pieces in their lineup that will likely produce very well barring injury. Pedroia at 100% should be a significant step up from last year. Hanley/Sandoval will be major upgrades who have been consistent producers, again health the factor. Mookie was sensational once he got playing time, and Xander came on strong at the end of the season. Sure, mediocre is probably within the realm of possibilities, but I think being very good is far more likely[/b] ... add to that Pedroia coming back closer to full throttle and perhaps an improvement from Nap following his nasal surgery...We could be back near the top producing offenses. To those who want to trade Kelly....WHAT? The guy has the best arm on our team and great movement. He is a tick or two above Webster across the board and the only real power arm we have. Masterson is a 3 only if his fall-off was due to his knee injury. Has that been rectified? You can't call Buch a 3. He is anywhere from a 2 to a 5+ depending. I think that his struggles have had more to do with mechanics. I have said this for years but I think his fall-off toward the first base line as part of his delivery hurts his accuracy and perhaps velocity which could impact all pitches. To me he seems to utilize more rotational action than most pitchers.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2014 17:18:52 GMT -5
The more I think about these moves and the more I look at the numbers, I am ecstatic about what Cherington has done. He has barely given anything of value up, has completely filled the rotation with possibly 4 #3 pitchers, all of whom have greater upside. Porcello is 25 and could still be getting better. And he's going to a team with better IF defense. Miley has a good bit of upside as well. He could improve from Vazquez' pitch framing and a better IF defense. Masterson we can hope that he was bad last season because of injury. Even a moderate return to form has him as a #3. Buchholz has nowhere to go but up. Let's hope an entire offseason which he didn't get last year will help him realize some of his upside. And I still doubt we're done. I would not be surprised to see something crazy done, like a Max Scherzer signing or Kelly or Buccholz, Craig/Victorino for Cueto or Zimmermann or Taijuan Walker/Paxton. They still have the financial maneuverability and prospects to do anything they want and there are way fewer holes to fill. Brilliant job so far. Could not be more pleased. I would not be surprised if someone like Miley has a better season than Samardzija. Oh and go get Moncada to replace whichever prospects we trade. Yup. Our prospect powder is still relatively dry. Samardzija is a better pitcher than Miley tho...no question in my mind but we need at least one lefty starter. I would still hope to keep one of Owens or Johnson and all the top positional players (Swihart, Devers, Margot). Marrero is not as flashy as Iglesias but just as sure handed. I think he will hit some with more pop than Iggy. I would hate to see him go but offering him up along with Owens and some lower guys for Hamels would make me happy. Getting Moncada would be biblical.
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Post by redsox1534 on Dec 11, 2014 17:48:13 GMT -5
I'm ok with the rotation as is now. I'm not opposed to improving it, I just don't think we need to force any deals that are short sighted to improve it. It won't be the best rotation in the league but I don't think that is important, especially with the high powered lineup I think we have. I agree with not doing something irrational and short sighted - however I don't think the rotation as currently constructed is good enough. Masterson is a huge question mark. Miley is an innings guy, but not sure how effective he'll be in the AL. Porcello and Buch should be fine. Kelly is ok. I have a feeling Miley is going to get flipped for Hamels. Miley, Marrero, Johnson, Cecchini for Hamels is what a buddy of mine predicts and I kind of agree. Marrero can play SS for them. Miley would be in their rotation, Johnson would prob push for a spot mid-year and Cecchini can play 3rd. Makes a bunch of sense for them IMO. I agree I see a similar trade going down. I think Miley holds more value in a deal then De La Rosa and Webster so they could be looking to flip him in another deal to a team like the Nats, who would want a replacement for Zimmerman because they are competing. I think the Phils would want other then Miley, Marrero, Checcini, and Johnson/Rodriguez. Think they might want Margot/Swihart/Betts in any deal tho. Thats prob the hold up in making a deal. Cueto too could be had it would seem. And they just got hosed for Latos ( who im a huge fan of) cant believe they got nothing for him. Id rather let him walk in FA for a 1st rd pick then get back what they did. Cueto and Chapman for Marrero, Middelbrooks, Ranuado, Johnson/Rodriguez, Coyle/Cecchini. We gotta land a ace. Have to.
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Post by redsox1534 on Dec 11, 2014 17:57:56 GMT -5
Love Masterson back he could be great if he is healthy. Procello is gonna be awsome. Hes gonna get better this year. He is finally finding his game after a slow start to his career. If we are smart we honestly try to sign him now. Next years SP FA class might be epic the talent is unreal if they all make it to FA.
Sounded from the rumors and the fact most consider Marrero better then Semien that we could of had Smarajada for Marrero and mybe another good/decent prospect. Which I hate to think we didnt bite.
I like Wade Miley always liked him. He isnt flashy but he is reliable and aint afraid to intiminate guys when on the mound. Hes a great get and makes us better right now and in the future. I believe he could surprise some people.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 18:20:07 GMT -5
I've seen a lot of people hate on number three starters. It's just like how every time a scout projects a guy to be a number three starter, folks think that means the scout is down on the guy. But number three starters don't just grow on trees (neither do number four/five starters, for that matter), and having a rotation filled with guys with above-average median projections is likely to, guess what, get you an above-average rotation.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 11, 2014 18:49:10 GMT -5
I've seen a lot of people hate on number three starters. It's just like how every time a scout projects a guy to be a number three starter, folks think that means the scout is down on the guy. But number three starters don't just grow on trees (neither do number four/five starters, for that matter), and having a rotation filled with guys with above-average median projections is likely to, guess what, get you an above-average rotation. I was told there would be no math on the quiz?
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Post by larrycook on Dec 11, 2014 19:31:38 GMT -5
Love Masterson back he could be great if he is healthy. I wonder how much of his problems last season were due to health, how much due to mechanics and how much was pressure he put on himself to have a great year in his contract year. The mechanics should get a huge boost from working with Farrell again. I still think this was a good signing.
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