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Post by mantush on Aug 1, 2014 10:55:41 GMT -5
Tangentially related --
Will (can) the Mariners offer Hisashi Iwakuma a QO? Obviously he pitches in one of the game's most pitcher friendly parks, but his peripherals are outstanding. He would probably make a great addition to a contending Red Sox team.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2014 10:56:45 GMT -5
He has a team option for 2015.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 11:00:31 GMT -5
It would be an outrage for the Sox to sign Scherzer after what happened with Lester. Lester is the more valuable pitcher now. In addition, Lester had better agents to deal with. Shields will come to the sox on 4 yr. deal for $80 million. A terrible overpay which will highlight what a mistake sox made with Lester.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 1, 2014 11:03:55 GMT -5
We are probably going to be closer to pick 1 than pick 12.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 11:06:38 GMT -5
4/80 for Shields maybe a slight overpay (looking at WAR $), but not one that cripples the team. If Shields would take that I would be fine with it. .359 SIERA this year. No signs of decline, and hes always been a horse.
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Post by mantush on Aug 1, 2014 11:07:26 GMT -5
He has a team option for 2015. Darn! For some reason, cots doesn't have the asterisk next to his name like they do for other potential free agents with an option, so I thought he'd be available. This would mean that, outside Lester, the free agent market for left-handed starters is pretty thin. What are the chances the Sox enter the 2015 season without a left-handed starter?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2014 11:35:05 GMT -5
Thoughts on innings limits: Potential issues with innings limits: RDLR - 91.2 (2013), 114.1 (2014) - assume 135 IP as innings limit (ie, 4 more starts) Webster - 135.1 (2013), 127.1 (2014) - assume 170 IP as innings limit (ie, 7 more starts) No potential issues with innings limits: Ranaudo - 140.0 (2013), 119.1 (2014) - assume 175 IP as innings limit (prob ok until end of year) Workman - 142.2 (2013 reg. season only), 112.0 (2014) - assume 175 IP as innings limit (prob ok until end of year) Wright - 148.2 (2013), 75.2 (2014) - assume no innings limit Guys who likely will not be called up to help, either for innings limits or 40-man roster considerations: Escobar - 128.2 (2013), 117.0 (2014) - assume 160 IP as innings limit (prob ok until end of minor league year) Barnes - 113.1 (2013), 86.0 (2014) - assume 145 IP as innings limit (prob ok until end of year) (not on 40-man roster but will need to be added in fall) Owens - 135.0 (2013), 121.0 (2014) - assume 165 IP as innings limit (prob ok until end of minor league year) (not on 40-man roster)
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 1, 2014 11:45:47 GMT -5
No it is not a good thing if they get hammered. But you have to think hammered is more likely than dominate. I am hoping to see signs that they can do a decent job at the back of the rotation next year. Hopefully we get two good guys for the top of the rotation this offseason. I have given up on counting on Clay for anything I am tired of being let down. At least next year they will have options on some pitchers so they can move them up and down if need be.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Aug 1, 2014 12:27:44 GMT -5
Very excited to see Ranaudo tonight. Need to allow RDLR, Webster, Ranaudo and Wright get some innings at MLB level and begin audition for next year's rotation. Usually, this involves taking some lumps along the way which will assist with our goal to end up with top 10 protected pick for 2015 draft so that when we do sign at least one free agent starter who may have a QO attached it won't cost us our first pick.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 12:30:50 GMT -5
4/80 for Shields maybe a slight overpay (looking at WAR $), but not one that cripples the team. If Shields would take that I would be fine with it. .359 SIERA this year. No signs of decline, and hes always been a horse. Nothing but a gut instinct but I think some moron owner ends up going 5 years on Shields.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 12:35:31 GMT -5
Very excited to see Ranaudo tonight. Need to allow RDLR, Webster, Ranaudo and Wright get some innings at MLB level and begin audition for next year's rotation. Usually, this involves taking some lumps along the way which will assist with our goal to end up with top 10 protected pick for 2015 draft so that when we do sign at least one free agent starter who may have a QO attached it won't cost us our first pick. Following the rotation will be the most interesting and probably the most telling point on how we are going to do next year. Really hoping 2 of them put a foothold on the job out of; Rubby, Webster, Ranaudo and Workman. Figure Buchholz is a starter next year along with Joe Kelly. We either trade for or sign a bigger name top of the rotation guy. I'm confident the new everyday players will help. Xander, JBJ and Vazquez have a lot to work on too. Should be a decent couple of months instead of drudgery.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 1, 2014 12:36:32 GMT -5
For the remainder of the season, I would like to see Rubby and Webster continue to get starts while also finding opportunities for Steven Wright and Anthony Ranaudo as well. Workman on the other hand has not done anything this year to inspire confidence in his ability to start. I would put him back in the pen, where his stuff plays up and see if he can become a late inning rhrp.
During the offseason, I would advocate Boston flexing their new financial flexibility to sign Lester to something in the ballpark of 7/155 and James Shields to somewhere around 4/80. That would leave us with the following entering 2015:
Lester Shields Odd Year Clay Bucholz Kelly Rubby De La Rosa
You would need to keep some of the depth we have accumulated (Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar, Johnson, Diaz)but I would not hesitate to use that depth in addition to guys like Bradley, WMB, or even Swihart to either acquire a dynamic young outfielder like Jayson Heyward, Mike Stanton, or even possibly Jorge Soler.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 1, 2014 12:46:53 GMT -5
The market for FA pitchers this year is really good. Not sure I'd go after Scherzer on a ridiculous contract when there are other options who could give you more bang for the buck.
Jorge de la Rosa Jason Hammel Colby Lewis Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana
All good second tier options.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 12:59:18 GMT -5
I like Santana but think he'd get a QO. Also not a great fit for Fenway or the division. Pass on him.
I could see us making a run at Masterson for sure. Good rebound candidate. Has been injured this year. I think he'd be a good but low guy with #3 upside.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 15:42:42 GMT -5
4/80 for Shields maybe a slight overpay (looking at WAR $), but not one that cripples the team. If Shields would take that I would be fine with it. .359 SIERA this year. No signs of decline, and hes always been a horse. I've heard "Shields" more in the last 24 hours than I have since "300" came out. So people are fine with Shields to age 37 because he's a horse, but thought paying Lester relatively same AAV for 5 years to age 35 is "risky"? Really? If the Sox are willing to go 4 years on Shields then they SHOULD go 5 on Lester (and should've gone 5 years when they made him that ratty offer in the spring).
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Post by ellisburks12 on Aug 1, 2014 15:54:12 GMT -5
This offseason, we are going to have lots of money and only starting pitching spend it on, so why not get the best guy on the market? We have enough money to get both him and Lester and he would be the best pitcher we've had in years, much better than Lester. I'd go 7/168 and I think that would get it done. Greetings both him and Lester would make us serious WS contenders next year while also taking away from the 2 other best teams in the AL(not really a consideration, Just an added bonus) Living in Motown as a Sox fan, and having followed Scherzer, this is a disaster waiting to happen. Tigers can count their blessings he did NOT accept their offer. Verlander is heading to toastville at age 30 and Tigers will ride that albatross of a contract. Scherzer benefits playing in a pitcher friendly park, extremely weak division (KC, Indians, CWS) and a hitting loaded team. Watch him sign with the Spankees and get sliced wide open playing in AL Eastand in that banjo New Spankees Stadium Rather have Lester back and go after a few middle tier pitchers on the other hand would it shock me if Sox signed Scherzer and Lester for combined 50million/yr, nope. They've got lot of flexibility with money given the youngsters on the team and the ready pipeline of pitchers down in Pawtucket
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 1, 2014 16:02:18 GMT -5
The market for FA pitchers this year is really good. Not sure I'd go after Scherzer on a ridiculous contract when there are other options who could give you more bang for the buck. Jorge de la Rosa Jason Hammel Colby Lewis Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana All good second tier options. We're not going to win a world series with one of those guys though, our chances with Scherzer would shoot way up, and what are we going to spend the millions of dollars we have on anyway? We'll still probably have like 50 million left even if we sign Lester
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 16:05:27 GMT -5
Pitches thrown in MLB (so far)
Shields 28,313 Hamels 26770 Lester 25142 Scherzer 19697
Obviously each has different genetics and mechanics but if you ascribe to the theory that more use = higher potential of injury in all of this then…well, then you didn't see all the young pitchers go down this year…but it is part of the evaluation matrix in front offices.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 16:09:02 GMT -5
How good will Scherzer be when his fastball is down to 90.something? He has lost 1.5mph in last two years down to 92.7.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 16:25:31 GMT -5
I'd prefer Lester, who has shown he can pitch quite well (actually "pitching better) with reduced velo.
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Post by buffs4444 on Aug 1, 2014 22:08:50 GMT -5
Lester and Masterson. Not sure Scherzer is ideal for Fenway
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 1, 2014 22:27:40 GMT -5
The market for FA pitchers this year is really good. Not sure I'd go after Scherzer on a ridiculous contract when there are other options who could give you more bang for the buck. Jorge de la Rosa Jason Hammel Colby Lewis Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana All good second tier options. I like where your heads at but I wouldn't say Colby Lewis is a good option at all.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 1, 2014 22:35:52 GMT -5
The market for FA pitchers this year is really good. Not sure I'd go after Scherzer on a ridiculous contract when there are other options who could give you more bang for the buck. Jorge de la Rosa Jason Hammel Colby Lewis Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana All good second tier options. I like where your heads at but I wouldn't say Colby Lewis is a good option at all. I can see the Red Sox make a run at Santana, i think he would be a great asset to the rotation. 4 years for 70 million should get it done.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 2, 2014 0:28:43 GMT -5
The market for FA pitchers this year is really good. Not sure I'd go after Scherzer on a ridiculous contract when there are other options who could give you more bang for the buck. Jorge de la Rosa Jason Hammel Colby Lewis Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana All good second tier options. I like where your heads at but I wouldn't say Colby Lewis is a good option at all. Maybe not the best, but he's another buy low guy that I wouldn't mind taking a run at. He was pretty good (not great, but pretty good) before he got hurt and missed 2013 and has struggled this year. Obviously, I'm not looking to give him a lot of money and I certainly wouldn't give him more than a 1 year deal with an option, but I think he could be a good candidate to be a solid pitcher in 2015.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 2, 2014 2:52:39 GMT -5
Lester and Masterson. Not sure Scherzer is ideal for Fenway I haven't seen Masterson pitch once this year. What's been his situation this year? His numbers are a mess. So is his velocity. He's been a mess is an understatement. Remember when he had lester like velocity in Boston? Both would sit 93-5 and touch 97? He is sitting upper 80's games I have seen, a couple. Caight more than that last year with him and he was throwing harder than that. Have worries there are issues he's hiding. Who knows?
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