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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by borisman on Feb 24, 2015 10:05:27 GMT -5
By the way getting Mondaca basically means it's a lock for a pitcher in the draft at 7. Why? They shouldn't change a thing. Take best player available. These guys are years away and have a good chance of never making it to the majors. You pick talent not needs. If Swanson is the best player at 7 do we still pick him over a prospect who has a little less projection and happens to be a pitcher? It's likely Swanson would be trade bait unless Bogey flounders. I'll wait to see what happens during the amatuer season but I would put it at 75/25 we pick a pitcher. I think that's where most of the talent is right now.
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Post by GyIantosca on Feb 24, 2015 10:09:40 GMT -5
You guys took what I said and totally ran with it and put words in my writing. I never said the things you guys are saying. They signed this kid and I feel there going with a pitcher at 7. Nothing else. That's all I said.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2015 10:14:47 GMT -5
You guys took what I said and totally ran with it and put words in my writing. I never said the things you guys are saying. They signed this kid and I feel there going with a pitcher at 7. Nothing else. That's all I said. You said they're going with a pitcher at 7 because they signed Moncada. I'd say they're going with a pitcher because there probably are going to be a lot more pitchers worth taking at 7, but that has nothing to do with Moncada at all.
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Post by GyIantosca on Feb 24, 2015 10:55:28 GMT -5
Moncada was not a lock to sign they signed him and I feel they can lock down a pitcher at 7. Take it any way you want.. They have a group who they like based on grading them out and they can feel more comfortable grabbing there pitcher they like because there is a lot of uncertainty with pitching . Also no pick in second round. So next pick is at 81. To me they live by you can never have too much pitching.Based on previous drafts and I know they have a new person heading up the draft. So I will go by past drafts and even though in the first round they dont always just draft pitching and coupled with no second rounder and they locked up Moncada . my conclusion is they have an eye on a pitcher at 7 based on these factors.
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Post by juniorp90 on Feb 24, 2015 11:21:20 GMT -5
Although we have too many pitchers on our farm, there are many good and good projection, but we have no projecting future ace and get one in this draft would be best. I think the only position player who is above all those pitchers is Brendan Rodgers and he will not reach the position 7. Then, knowing that the best available pitchers would not Swanson, no Bregman. Possibly Cameron ... And there are pitchers who are underestimating such as Mike Nikorak, love that guy.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 24, 2015 11:32:41 GMT -5
I think there is a good chance the Sox do take a pitcher. But it's because this draft looks pretty strong as far as college arms. It has, without exaggeration, absolutely zero to do with Moncada. They will take the player they like best.
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Post by mmorgan08 on Feb 24, 2015 11:41:00 GMT -5
Exactly. If their board going into the draft is 1-P 2-P 3-P 4-P 5-P 6-P 7-Bregman 8-P
and their 1-6 are already off the board, they'll take Bregman. Has nothing to do with Moncada.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 24, 2015 11:49:22 GMT -5
I think a different issue is whether having invested a lot into one asset, and not having a second round pick, they try to diversify the risk by going "signable" at #7, and allocating more for the #3 and #4 picks (like the Cubs did with the catcher in 2013)
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2015 11:51:58 GMT -5
I think a different issue is whether having invested a lot into one asset, and not having a second round pick, they try to diversify the risk by going "signable" at #7, and allocating more for the #3 and #4 picks (like the Cubs did with the catcher in 2013) I don't think so because you'd be lucky to get a top 100 prospect in the 3rd, no matter if he has signabilty issues or not. I'd rather have a top 7 prospect.
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Post by taftreign on Feb 24, 2015 12:10:14 GMT -5
I think a different issue is whether having invested a lot into one asset, and not having a second round pick, they try to diversify the risk by going "signable" at #7, and allocating more for the #3 and #4 picks (like the Cubs did with the catcher in 2013) I actually think it would be the reverse. The team has landed a first round caliber talent with high ceiling and has a chance to add a second which is a very unusual opportunity rivaled by only what Houston can do this draft or what Arizona did a few years back but both at the expense of not signing a prospect the year prior. What is available in the 3rd round and beyond is much more risky and/or lacks the same ceiling. But perhaps the greatest argument for selecting the best available at 7 is the Boston system has such great depth. The farm system is in a position now to add as many high end high ceiling prospects they can get even at the expense of raising the general level of depth.
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Post by borisman on Feb 24, 2015 13:50:22 GMT -5
There's no way the Sox take a chance that someone slips to 81. No way, no how. If a stud pitcher is there at 7 they will take the best one available. Like already been mentioned there is pitching depth at the top (and probably well into the top half of round 1). We don't know what there will be at 81. The draft doesn't really unfold that way any longer. If we get a shot at a No.2 (with ceiling of a 1), BULLSEYE!!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2015 14:09:47 GMT -5
I think a different issue is whether having invested a lot into one asset, and not having a second round pick, they try to diversify the risk by going "signable" at #7, and allocating more for the #3 and #4 picks (like the Cubs did with the catcher in 2013) If you mean Schwarber, that was last year and he's now BA's #20 prospect, so while he signed under slot, he was also worth the selection. The only draftee ahead of him is Rodon. It's also worth noting that he was the number four pick. The first four pick slot values have money built in to be used elsewhere. With the number seven pick worth more than 1 Million less, it's tougher to spread that around.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 24, 2015 14:28:41 GMT -5
Arms are way better than bats this year. Hard to see Bregman anywhere close to 7, and chances are we'll take an arm unless someone like Cameron or Plummer's stock rises fast.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 24, 2015 14:33:38 GMT -5
I think a different issue is whether having invested a lot into one asset, and not having a second round pick, they try to diversify the risk by going "signable" at #7, and allocating more for the #3 and #4 picks (like the Cubs did with the catcher in 2013) If you mean Schwarber, that was last year and he's now BA's #20 prospect, so while he signed under slot, he was also worth the selection. The only draftee ahead of him is Rodon. It's also worth noting that he was the number four pick. The first four pick slot values have money built in to be used elsewhere. With the number seven pick worth more than 1 Million less, it's tougher to spread that around. Perhaps a more comparable situation to ours would be like the Royals signing of Hunter Dozier in 2013. Although rather than using the excess slot savings on several players, I think the bulk of that money went to signing Sean Manaea (a talent unlikely to be available for our 3rd round selection).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 24, 2015 14:56:53 GMT -5
If you mean Schwarber, that was last year and he's now BA's #20 prospect, so while he signed under slot, he was also worth the selection. The only draftee ahead of him is Rodon. It's also worth noting that he was the number four pick. The first four pick slot values have money built in to be used elsewhere. With the number seven pick worth more than 1 Million less, it's tougher to spread that around. Perhaps a more comparable situation to ours would be like the Royals signing of Hunter Dozier in 2013. Although rather than using the excess slot savings on several players, I think the bulk of that money went to signing Sean Manaea (a talent unlikely to be available for our 3rd round selection). I think, given the depth in the system, the Sox are more likely to go quality over quantity. Just go BPA in each round (except for the senior sign rounds).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2015 15:47:46 GMT -5
If you mean Schwarber, that was last year and he's now BA's #20 prospect, so while he signed under slot, he was also worth the selection. The only draftee ahead of him is Rodon. It's also worth noting that he was the number four pick. The first four pick slot values have money built in to be used elsewhere. With the number seven pick worth more than 1 Million less, it's tougher to spread that around. Perhaps a more comparable situation to ours would be like the Royals signing of Hunter Dozier in 2013. Although rather than using the excess slot savings on several players, I think the bulk of that money went to signing Sean Manaea (a talent unlikely to be available for our 3rd round selection). And, in theory, Jon Denney had he not been picked one spot earlier in the third. Which I think speaks volumes about the risks involved in players who slip out of the first now, especially if you don't pick again until the third. 2010 this is not.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 24, 2015 15:58:41 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 24, 2015 16:02:09 GMT -5
I could definitely get behind a college arm. Matuella will be interesting to follow, because if his injuries are just scary enough to get him out of the top 5, his potential may be too good to pass on at 7. Obviously several to choose from regardless.
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Post by tonyc58 on Feb 25, 2015 9:42:14 GMT -5
Quick Update on Phil Bickford: Last Thursday box score, 5 IP, 15 batters faced, 2 hits, no walks, 13 K's, sat 93-94, heavy scout presence.
He will be there at # 7
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 25, 2015 14:36:21 GMT -5
It's impossible to read anyhing into Bickford's stat lines. For all intents in purposes it's the same as looking at high school stats. If he wasn't putting up video game numbers against that sort of competition it would be worrisome.
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Post by bjb406 on Feb 25, 2015 15:36:44 GMT -5
I just hope they don't pick another guy they like purely because he is tall, and they are under the delusion that is relevant.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 15:50:20 GMT -5
I just hope they don't pick another guy they like purely because he is tall, and they are under the delusion that is relevant. I'd be willing to bet that was never the pure reason they ever drafted anyone.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 25, 2015 16:59:58 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 18:01:33 GMT -5
I just hope they don't pick another guy they like purely because he is tall, and they are under the delusion that is relevant. I'd be willing to bet that was never the pure reason they ever drafted anyone. And besides, height is important. Generally you want to throw your pitches at a downward angle and that's tough to do if you are short. It's the one knock against Allard for me.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 25, 2015 18:17:32 GMT -5
For those interested (actually don't do this to yourselves like I did)...former Red Sox draftees: Seniors 3. Sikes Orvis, 1B, Mississippi, drafted by Red Sox '11 (Round 19) 48. Derek O'Dell, SS, TCU, drafted by Red Sox '11 (Round 41) Juniors 4. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU, drafted by Red Sox '12 (Round 29) 9. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt, drafted by Red Sox '12 (Round 15) Sophomores 7. Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska, drafted by Red Sox '13 (Round 22) Freshman 3. David Peterson, LHP, Oregon, drafted by Red Sox '14 (Round 28) 8. Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt, drafted by Red Sox '14 (Round 30) 10. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt, drafted by Red Sox '13 (Round 13) 26. J.J. Matijevic, 1B/3B, Arizona, drafted by Red Sox '14 (Round 22) Note. This post isn't meant as a complaint or a "I can't believe they let this guy got away." I'm a big fan of the 'draft a fair number of signability guys and hope that we can sign 1 or 2' strategy.
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