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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 10, 2018 11:02:54 GMT -5
There have been 2 players in the last 150 years of baseball that has done both sides of baseball (pitching and hitting) to a all-star level. Two. That's even if Ohtani can actually keep hitting. The probability of it happening more often is like hitting the powerball. I don't know why teams would all of a sudden change their approach in terms of drafting because of Ohtani reaching and excelling in MLB. Madison Bumgarner feels disrepected Bumgarner isn't a good hitter though....
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2018 11:04:08 GMT -5
Madison Bumgarner is a career .185/.232/.322 hitter. That sort of illustrates the point. The best hitting pitcher of the last 20 years isn't even Jeff Mathis at the plate.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 10, 2018 11:09:41 GMT -5
There have been 2 players in the last 150 years of baseball that has done both sides of baseball (pitching and hitting) to a all-star level. Two. That's even if Ohtani can actually keep hitting. The probability of it happening more often is like hitting the powerball. I don't know why teams would all of a sudden change their approach in terms of drafting because of Ohtani reaching and excelling in MLB. I get that the probability of that is extremely low, but that's also partially due to the fact that these guys aren't developed that way and not 100% because the skill set is so rare. Surely if they developed more guys that way there would be more of them. Referencing Chris last post there's a good reason why this is the case; more guys would probably be screwed up and you'd be left with a less developed system overall. Now, this doesn't mean that this ability and that level of athleticism would also be rare even if guys were developed in such a way. I still think it would be a rare ability, but I think we'd see it more often. If I had to completely make a up a number and pull it out of my arse I'd say we'd probably see 1-2 guys do this at an elite level every decade. Now again, I think Chris has made the point that guys aren't developed this way for good reason, and the more I think about it the more I agree with that. I guess the one angle I didn't think about in my original post was the fact that Otani was already developed this way and a team didn't invest the time and resources in that. Also, Otani has a long way to go with barely a week of MLB experience under his belt. I'm sorry if this concept seems very far-fetched, or my post seems a little redundant it's just that I'm very fascinated by the whole concept of Shohei Otani.
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Post by 180054giant on Apr 10, 2018 11:18:37 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 10, 2018 11:18:42 GMT -5
Even if teams didn't screw up the player development side of the ball, the chances of a player being good enough on both sides of the ball is non existent. A player might be able to hit, but not be able to throw strikes for example. Or a pitcher might be good enough to start or be a reliever and might hit enough to be a utility player. However, you're not going to use a pitcher like that if he's only a utility type with the bat.
This just doesn't happen. It's a phenomenon. That is why Ohtani is fun to watch. You're seeing something that might not be done for another 100 years MAYBE.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2018 11:29:46 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed. This is basically what Brooks Kieschnick tried to do, but PFF's point is the central issue - it's REALLY hard to become an MLB-caliber player on one side of the ball. The chances a guy actually is that good on both sides of the ball are just incredibly small. Take, say, Bobby Dalbec. He almost certainly is a good enough pitcher that they could run him out there in the minors, at least, and if it doesn't work for him at third base, maybe that's a fallback for him someday. But consider how hard he's having to work to make it on one side of the ball. Now consider he's going to have to lose dev time to bullpens, starts, etc. He's just decreasing his chances of making it in either role because he's not progressing as quickly. Guys that are mop-up relievers or defensive replacements were the best players on their high school or college teams. It's really, really hard. I agree that kind of versatility could be valuable, but it's just really hard to find and cultivate.
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Post by soxfando on Apr 10, 2018 11:53:55 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed. The sox already have that in Steven Wright
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 15, 2018 6:35:22 GMT -5
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 17, 2018 9:12:08 GMT -5
I knew we were close to signing him out of HS back then but I've never thought we were real close to getting him! Shohei Ohtani almost signed with the Red Sox once. Side note: Eddie Romero is a beast and should never ever leave this organisation hehe
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 17, 2018 9:45:08 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed. This is basically what Brooks Kieschnick tried to do, but PFF's point is the central issue - it's REALLY hard to become an MLB-caliber player on one side of the ball. The chances a guy actually is that good on both sides of the ball are just incredibly small. Take, say, Bobby Dalbec. He almost certainly is a good enough pitcher that they could run him out there in the minors, at least, and if it doesn't work for him at third base, maybe that's a fallback for him someday. But consider how hard he's having to work to make it on one side of the ball. Now consider he's going to have to lose dev time to bullpens, starts, etc. He's just decreasing his chances of making it in either role because he's not progressing as quickly. Guys that are mop-up relievers or defensive replacements were the best players on their high school or college teams. It's really, really hard. I agree that kind of versatility could be valuable, but it's just really hard to find and cultivate. I agree, but it's an interesting experiment, right? Dalbec is a neat example, because the path for Dalbec to make it is really, really narrow. He needs to take a Joey Gallo path, where he hits so many homers that teams pitch him carefully (leading to a few more walks), and overcoming the fact that he strikes out so much that he probably won't hit .200. He profiles well defensively, but if he's not a starter with the bat then it's hard to keep a backup infielder who doesn't play shortstop. But... that wouldn't be true if he could pitch every so often, right? So, if it makes it peaking at one side harder, but it widens the path, might it be worth it? I'd argue no with someone of the upside of Casey Kelly or Frankie Rodriguez or Trey Ball. But those were guys who, if things hit right, scouts saw as potential All-Stars. It's hard to see that with a fringier type like Dalbec. If Dalbec ends up a .180/.260/.405 hitter going one way then he's not playing in the majors. But if he's a guy with a .180-.200 Iso (rather that .225ish if he focused entirely on developing that hitting) , good defense, AND he pitches? I dunno, that seems like a semi-valuable bench player, given a manager who knew how to pick his spots. And I'm using Dalbec as a prototype rather than discussing his skills specifically, but fits a type. Also, it seems like this would only work for a player who they saw at least primarily as a hitter, because I'd think the focus would need to be on hitting in the lower minors. I could even see a program where you re-introduce a fringy bench prospect to pitching after a couple years, because losing a couple years on the mound wouldn't seem as detrimental as losing a couple at the plate. EDIT: Re-reading my post, I want to make ABSOLUTELY clear that I am not advocating trying to develop Bobby Dalbec as a two-way player. I'm really interested in the thought experiment and what a development program for such a player would look like, and Dalbec is a convenient example.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 17, 2018 12:59:15 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed. I remember the Red Sox trying that a little bit in 2004 with Dave McCarthy. He was a good solid defensive 1b, a guy who could spell Millar at 1b late in the game, but the Sox also let him try to become a lefty reliever who could pitch a bit in blowouts. I think he pitched in Fenway's Opening Day game with the Sox down but not totally out. By the time McCarthy was done pitching the Sox were out of the game. Rookie manager Tito Francona got some criticism for pitching him in a game that wasn't a total blowout and I don't think he pitched more than a couple of times after that. As it was, if memory serves, McCarty did hit a GW HR at some point early in the year, but unfortunately for him, the Sox acquired Mientkiewicz who took his job. If they hadn't McCarty might have had the honor of corralling the out that made the Sox champs for the first time in 86 years instead of Mientkiewicz. Before McCarthy the Sox had Ron Mahay who I believe homered in his first game as a CF. Without looking it up I think it was around '96 or '97. Soon thereafter he came back to the Red Sox, but by then had been converted to a LH reliever, and he actually carved out a bit of career for awhile being a LOOGY, and he was pretty decent at it - I believe he pitched for Texas and Minnesota at some point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2018 14:17:06 GMT -5
A true two-way starter doubling as a SP and middle-of-the-order power hitter may be a once in a lifetime talent but I wonder about a more moderate example, like a position player who is decent enough on the mound to eat up innings routinely in mop-up duty, or a pitcher who could sub in as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as needed. I remember the Red Sox trying that a little bit in 2004 with Dave McCarthy. He was a good solid defensive 1b, a guy who could spell Millar at 1b late in the game, but the Sox also let him try to become a lefty reliever who could pitch a bit in blowouts. I think he pitched in Fenway's Opening Day game with the Sox down but not totally out. By the time McCarthy was done pitching the Sox were out of the game. Rookie manager Tito Francona got some criticism for pitching him in a game that wasn't a total blowout and I don't think he pitched more than a couple of times after that. As it was, if memory serves, McCarty did hit a GW HR at some point early in the year, but unfortunately for him, the Sox acquired Mientkiewicz who took his job. If they hadn't McCarty might have had the honor of corralling the out that made the Sox champs for the first time in 86 years instead of Mientkiewicz. Before McCarthy the Sox had Ron Mahay who I believe homered in his first game as a CF. Without looking it up I think it was around '96 or '97. Soon thereafter he came back to the Red Sox, but by then had been converted to a LH reliever, and he actually carved out a bit of career for awhile being a LOOGY, and he was pretty decent at it - I believe he pitched for Texas and Minnesota at some point. McCarty is probably a good example of why it doesn't work too though. He wasn't good enough to keep a roster spot in either role, so that just made him one below-replacement level guy instead of two on the same roster. Good memory though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 17, 2018 15:57:05 GMT -5
The only interesting aspect to the whole Ohtani aspect with how Ohtani could change the game is the whole WAR concept.
I mean, let's say Ohtani is a 20-25 homerun bat with a .250 average with a .330 on base over a full season for him (400-450 at bats). Then let's imagine he's a 3-3.50 ERA guy with around 200 strikeouts in around 160-180 innings this year.
That is still *easily* still the most valuable player in baseball, right?
In 6 years, if he stays healthy, what's all that worth AAV wise? 50 million a year?!!
All of that is really fascinating to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2018 16:36:02 GMT -5
The only interesting aspect to the whole Ohtani aspect with how Ohtani could change the game is the whole WAR concept. I mean, let's say Ohtani is a 20-25 homerun bat with a .250 average with a .330 on base over a full season for him (400-450 at bats). Then let's imagine he's a 3-3.50 ERA guy with around 200 strikeouts in around 160-180 innings this year. That is still *easily* still the most valuable player in baseball, right? In 6 years, if he stays healthy, what's all that worth AAV wise? 50 million a year?!! All of that is really fascinating to me. So how would that change the concept of wins above replacement? EDIT: And actually, consider the fact that offensively, he's only going to hit in about half of their games, and will only DH. I think the 400-450 you're talking about isn't reasonable at the rate he's playing. He's got 33 PA in the Angels' first 26 games. That projects for 205 PA. Looking for comps, the pitcher you describe is basically Jimmy Nelson or Zach Greinke, which we can peg at about 5 WAR. As for the hitter part, that's tougher because his positional adjustment is going to sap his value provided, and that value will only be in half a season. But let's throw another 1.5 WAR on him at the plate maybe? So 6.5 WAR wouldn't make him easily the most valuable player in baseball, but I think that's right. The hitter you described, adjusting for how much Ohtani is actually going to hit, really isn't THAT valuable. He provides no defensive value and is kind of a dime-a-dozen hitter - basically Matt Adams or something. Perhaps this doesn't account for the fact you're getting a free Matt Adams on your roster without taking up a roster space. I'm not quite sure how you account for that though. The extra roster spot is probably being used on a bench bat or bullpen arm, right?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 17, 2018 16:56:33 GMT -5
Is there a positional adjustment for pitchers batting for position player WAR? Do position players pitching in mopup games get held against them for total WAR? And do pitchers batting also get held against them for total WAR?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2018 17:05:17 GMT -5
Is there a positional adjustment for pitchers batting for position player WAR? Do position players pitching in mopup games get held against them for total WAR? And do pitchers batting also get held against them for total WAR? So I mean, WAR isn't some mysterious thing that all of the statistics from every game goes into and punches out some unknown number. For hitters, we don't include things like pitching stats. And vice versa - Bumgarner's pitching WAR doesn't include his hitting - there's a separate tab or table on his Fangraphs or B-Ref page for that. (Interestingly, Bumgarner's been worth as much as 1.3 WAR at the plate in recent seasons. Kind of funny and not something I'd thought about.) That said, for Ohtani, his positional adjustment at the plate would be that for a DH, which is the correct way to treat him, not for a pitcher. If he were in the NL and hitting on days he pitched like this, he'd obviously get much more credit for those games. That's how Bumgarner gets 1.3 WAR for his 78 plate appearances hitting .258/.286/.470 with 4 HR - there's probably an immense positional adjustment. For Ohtani, a DH with the hypothetical numbers thrown out by PFF above isn't really going to be benefitting much from the positional adjustment. Like I went back and added before you made your post, the question is whether there's unaccounted-for value added by Ohtani being both Zach Greinke and Matt Adams, to use what PFF is basically suggesting, in one roster spot. I'm not sure how to account for that or if it's even a thing - does the fact that his total WAR is the combination of the two account for it? I'm sure someone can Google articles that the folks at FG or BP have written about this.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 17, 2018 17:08:30 GMT -5
Is there a positional adjustment for pitchers batting for position player WAR? Do position players pitching in mopup games get held against them for total WAR? And do pitchers batting also get held against them for total WAR? Yeah I'm not sure the answers to any of these questions and Ohtani is going to unravel a lot of answers with all of this. Chris is right though, I guess with no position for Ohtani and not enough at bats, he won't be as valuable as I would have thought. There's just no value in DH's unless they are truly elite. There isn't enough value with pitchers who don't throw as many innings I don't think either. Still all really fascinating stuff to unravel though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2018 17:13:07 GMT -5
Is there a positional adjustment for pitchers batting for position player WAR? Do position players pitching in mopup games get held against them for total WAR? And do pitchers batting also get held against them for total WAR? Yeah I'm not sure the answers to any of these questions and Ohtani is going to unravel a lot of answers with all of this. Chris is right though, I guess with no position for Ohtani and not enough at bats, he won't be as valuable as I would have thought. There's just no value in DH's unless they are truly elite. There isn't enough value with pitchers who don't throw as many innings I don't think either. Still all really fascinating stuff to unravel though. To be clear, the answers to the questions are: Yes (but it doesn't apply to Ohtani when he is the DH). No. No. Of note, on Fangraphs, he's been worth .5 WAR on each side of the ball. Prorated over the course of the season, that's 10.1 WAR and yeah, he'd be easily the most valuable player. That said, he's not going to keep hitting .367/.424/.767, of course. Thinking it through further, he's not going to throw 180 innings either. He's making his 3rd start in the Angels' 17th game. Extrapolate that out to 28 or 29 starts, he'll have to be going deep into games on the reg to make it to 180 innings. 160 might be a safer estimate.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 17, 2018 17:24:40 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not sure the answers to any of these questions and Ohtani is going to unravel a lot of answers with all of this. Chris is right though, I guess with no position for Ohtani and not enough at bats, he won't be as valuable as I would have thought. There's just no value in DH's unless they are truly elite. There isn't enough value with pitchers who don't throw as many innings I don't think either. Still all really fascinating stuff to unravel though. To be clear, the answers to the questions are: Yes (but it doesn't apply to Ohtani when he is the DH). No. No. Of note, on Fangraphs, he's been worth .5 WAR on each side of the ball. Prorated over the course of the season, that's 10.1 WAR and yeah, he'd be easily the most valuable player. That said, he's not going to keep hitting .367/.424/.767, of course. Thinking it through further, he's not going to throw 180 innings either. He's making his 3rd start in the Angels' 17th game. Extrapolate that out to 28 or 29 starts, he'll have to be going deep into games on the reg to make it to 180 innings. 160 might be a safer estimate. Ohh okay, so my guess of his value is right, just my soft guessing projections are way off. Got it. Lol. I wonder how much that'd all be worth too.
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