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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 20, 2014 3:30:42 GMT -5
rjp13jr, Matt Picard,
Thanks for the responses, but I disagree.
Brock Holt is an above replacement player; there is relatively limited risk. His ceiling is farther above 2014 WMB, than Panda is above any reasonable estimate of Holt's 2015 season.
Also Holt is left-handed (as is Cecchini)
I can't see how Sandoval is worth anywhere near what he is likely to be paid to the Red Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2014 7:45:18 GMT -5
WMB has one last chance in AAA to improve his trade value or else he's a minor league free agent next year. No, he'll be on the MLB 40-man roster but without an option to use next spring, as Britton and Lavarnway are now. That's why I said it. Without options and without improving in AAA this year, he'll be a minor league free agent next year. If he does improve, he'll be traded.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2014 9:43:10 GMT -5
I'm really not worried at all about the RHH-heavy lineup. Ortiz is a very good left-handed hitter. There are platoon options as the lineup is currently built. And a lot of the right-handers hit righties quite well. Betts killed righties last year. Cespedes has historically had a lower walk rate against righties, but everything else shows no split at all. Napoli strikes out more against righties but otherwise hits them nearly as well as lefties. I'm confident in Bogaerts' ability to bounce back and handle RHPs effectively. Pedroia has been good against righties in the past, but has been gradually hitting them worse over the last few years.
The Rangers of 2010/2011 were very RHP-heavy and one of the best hitting teams in the league. Of course the current Red Sox don't have the same talent in the lineup, but I just don't buy that the Red Sox right-handedness is a problem.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 20, 2014 10:39:43 GMT -5
I'm really not worried at all about the RHH-heavy lineup. Ortiz is a very good left-handed hitter. There are platoon options as the lineup is currently built. And a lot of the right-handers hit righties quite well. Betts killed righties last year. Cespedes has historically had a lower walk rate against righties, but everything else shows no split at all. Napoli strikes out more against righties but otherwise hits them nearly as well as lefties. I'm confident in Bogaerts' ability to bounce back and handle RHPs effectively. Pedroia has been good against righties in the past, but has been gradually hitting them worse over the last few years. The Rangers of 2010/2011 were very RHP-heavy and one of the best hitting teams in the league. Of course the current Red Sox don't have the same talent in the lineup, but I just don't buy that the Red Sox right-handedness is a problem. Sox management does apparently care though.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Nov 20, 2014 10:44:56 GMT -5
I'm not a Panda fan. I think he has value in the short term, but the end of his deal could prove to be a big problem.
I really love the idea of bringing back Beltre. Texas might be inclined to deal him since their top prospect is a 3rd baseman. Not sure what it'd take to get him, but he'd be a great addition to the lineup and defensively as long as he doesn't cost the farm.
I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not all that interested in Tulo. His away splits are pretty scary. I know he is in the NL West with some large parks, but still makes me nervous. Obviously, his defense is spectacular, and he wouldn't be awful at the plate, but probably wouldn't be worth the big time prospects it'd take to land him.
Headley is my top FA choice if we're to go that route. I think he'd be more likely to get a shorter deal for reasonable money.
Internally - I think the smartest thing to do is get Mookie some reps at 3rd. At least TRY him there. If not him, I think Cecchini would out-perform WMB and/or Francisco.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 20, 2014 15:51:57 GMT -5
“@gordonedes: Despite a report to contrary, Michael Sandoval, Pablo's brother and one of his agents, said Sox have yet to make offer”
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Nov 20, 2014 18:36:57 GMT -5
No, he'll be on the MLB 40-man roster but without an option to use next spring, as Britton and Lavarnway are now. That's why I said it. Without options and without improving in AAA this year, he'll be a minor league free agent next year. If he does improve, he'll be traded. No. If Mbks is not traded, Sox can try to clear waivers in or after Dec 2015 and then he would outrighted and scheduled for mlfb free agency in Nov 2016. So Sox likely control him for at least 2 more seasons. Of course, they could add him back to 40-man in Oct 2016 and carry him to spring 2017, if they choose.
Yes, April 2017 could be the Sox drop dead date on Mdbks.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 21, 2014 0:07:49 GMT -5
Huzzah!! “@nickcafardo: Among Red Sox, Giants and Padres - little separation on money being offered to Sandoval - in that 5-year, $90-95m range. Jays wavering..”
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 21, 2014 1:36:11 GMT -5
I'm not a Panda fan. I think he has value in the short term, but the end of his deal could prove to be a big problem. I really love the idea of bringing back Beltre. Texas might be inclined to deal him since their top prospect is a 3rd baseman. Not sure what it'd take to get him, but he'd be a great addition to the lineup and defensively as long as he doesn't cost the farm. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not all that interested in Tulo. His away splits are pretty scary. I know he is in the NL West with some large parks, but still makes me nervous. Obviously, his defense is spectacular, and he wouldn't be awful at the plate, but probably wouldn't be worth the big time prospects it'd take to land him. . Not to pick on you specifically as I have seen this mentioned several times now, but there is no way that Texas would hand the third base job to a guy who struck out in 40% of his plate appearance in AA. Joey Gallo is likely the most over-hyped prospect in baseball. Don't get me wrong; I think he is a very good prospect, but people are getting way too entranced with power and are not honestly questioning his hit skill. Also that second part should be nominated for understatement of the year. Tulo had a 126 WRC+ away from Coors last season. And his career WRC+ differential is only -14 away from Home. His bat plays anywhere on the diamond yet alone at Short. The only question is and will always be his health.
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Post by soxsb10 on Nov 21, 2014 6:33:57 GMT -5
Panda or bust. Sign him quickly. He is 28. He is a 3-4 hitter. He plays solid defense. His jerseys will pay for his contract as well.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 21, 2014 7:38:25 GMT -5
I'll take Bust over Panda. I can't see paying a $18 to $20 million a year for a guy who hits 13 to 15 Hrs, drives in about 70 runs and has waist line which expands during the season. His lack of discipline and a huge multi year contract is not going age well with that body type (think Kevin Mitchell). I'd much rather have them sign Headley who likely will cost about $5 million less per year and 4 year contract.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 21, 2014 8:08:33 GMT -5
Panda or bust. Sign him quickly. He is 28. He is a 3-4 hitter. He plays solid defense. His jerseys will pay for his contract as well. To put this in perspective a little. Over the last two seasons, Papi slugged .541. Sandoval slugged .416, which is less than Ellsbury. There must be some kind of alternate reality where Sandoval is 100 times better than the numbers I'm looking at because I really don't get it.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 21, 2014 9:08:02 GMT -5
With all numbers being roughly equal, I have a hard time believing Panda won't go back to SF
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Nov 21, 2014 9:12:00 GMT -5
I'll take Bust over Panda. I can't see paying a $18 to $20 million a year for a guy who hits 13 to 15 Hrs, drives in about 70 runs and has waist line which expands during the season. His lack of discipline and a huge multi year contract is not going age well with that body type (think Kevin Mitchell). I'd much rather have them sign Headley who likely will cost about $5 million less per year and 4 year contract. at ages 31-32 Kevin Mitchell had an ops of about 1.000 though he played less than 100 games each year
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 21, 2014 9:14:36 GMT -5
Agree with dirty water. He's made comments to wanting to return to the Giants before. Then, for PR purposes, Larry can say they made a "competitive" offer but the Panda's heart was in San Francisco.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 21, 2014 9:14:40 GMT -5
Listen Panda did what he had to to get the Giants scarred . He is staying there gonna pay him and that's that. What a ploy.
I have mixed feelings. We need an anchor for the rotation and I feel comfortable with Lester.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 21, 2014 9:44:49 GMT -5
Panda or bust. Sign him quickly. He is 28. He is a 3-4 hitter. He plays solid defense. His jerseys will pay for his contract as well. Recommended reading: jmei's post at the top of this page.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Nov 21, 2014 10:56:10 GMT -5
I'm not a Panda fan. I think he has value in the short term, but the end of his deal could prove to be a big problem. I really love the idea of bringing back Beltre. Texas might be inclined to deal him since their top prospect is a 3rd baseman. Not sure what it'd take to get him, but he'd be a great addition to the lineup and defensively as long as he doesn't cost the farm. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not all that interested in Tulo. His away splits are pretty scary. I know he is in the NL West with some large parks, but still makes me nervous. Obviously, his defense is spectacular, and he wouldn't be awful at the plate, but probably wouldn't be worth the big time prospects it'd take to land him. . Not to pick on you specifically as I have seen this mentioned several times now, but there is no way that Texas would hand the third base job to a guy who struck out in 40% of his plate appearance in AA. Joey Gallo is likely the most over-hyped prospect in baseball. Don't get me wrong; I think he is a very good prospect, but people are getting way too entranced with power and are not honestly questioning his hit skill. Also that second part should be nominated for understatement of the year. Tulo had a 126 WRC+ away from Coors last season. And his career WRC+ differential is only -14 away from Home. His bat plays anywhere on the diamond yet alone at Short. The only question is and will always be his health. Thanks for clarifying, sdiaz. I'm not saying the rangers would give away Beltre, but I think he could be had for the right price. As far as Tulo is concerned, you're right about the numbers, I just always worry about guys leaving Coors field. It's the same way I feel about pitchers coming from the NL to the AL.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 21, 2014 10:59:51 GMT -5
Panda or bust. Sign him quickly. He is 28. He is a 3-4 hitter. He plays solid defense. His jerseys will pay for his contract as well. Recommended reading: jmei's post at the top of this page the entire thread in which someone is posting. Seriously. Post better, folks.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 21, 2014 15:31:58 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 7s8 seconds ago Source: #Padres making offer to Sandoval today.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 21, 2014 15:59:58 GMT -5
Third base is a shallow position and in the shallow position grouping Sandoval has been ok. He's basically been between the 10th and 15th best third baseman in the league. I have a hard time wrapping my head around him being worth 5 or 6 years at 18M+...
The whole "what else can you do?" argument doesn't sit well as a good reason to overpay a guy. I respect what he's done in the post season and that shouldn't be ignored and will be the only thing that gives me any hope it's worth while.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 21, 2014 21:49:07 GMT -5
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 22, 2014 2:11:33 GMT -5
I think that Red Sox offer is testing the theory that Sandoval is just using the Sox interest to leverage SF, where he wants to stay. If the Sox were not suspicious, I think they would have made a closing offer of somewhat more. The Giants should have no trouble matching this offer.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Nov 22, 2014 4:31:39 GMT -5
There's no question to me that 6 120 would get it done but I do think 5 95 might be enough.
There was a report that he was eager to move on and not favoring sf at all.
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 22, 2014 8:10:36 GMT -5
I'll take Bust over Panda. I can't see paying a $18 to $20 million a year for a guy who hits 13 to 15 Hrs, drives in about 70 runs and has waist line which expands during the season. His lack of discipline and a huge multi year contract is not going age well with that body type (think Kevin Mitchell). I'd much rather have them sign Headley who likely will cost about $5 million less per year and 4 year contract. As pointed out by Keith Law during his chat this week, most of the heavier players who had an earlier decline, like Mitchell, were also poor athletes. Sandoval is a very good athlete. Still wish he were thinner, but that mitigates the issue somewhat.
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