SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
|
Post by nomar on Oct 6, 2014 16:06:45 GMT -5
FWIW Cecchini was a better hitter than Vazquez at both levels this year according to wRC+.
Also with Cecchini being a below average - average defensive 3B, there is a lot of pressure on him to hit, whereas Vazquez being an elite defensive catcher has much less pressure on his bat. If they're anywhere close to each other offensively, Vazquez will be a lot more valuable than Cecchini. We need a good 3B more than we need a catcher, and Vazquez has a floor of being elite defensively and poor offensively, whereas Cecchini could struggle on both sides next year.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 6, 2014 20:28:16 GMT -5
My bet is that Cechinni would hit significantly better than Vasquez even in 2015. No doubt Vasquez is the better defender but what will it cost to get a good player at 3rd and what will it cost to get a good player at catcher? We don't know those variables yet. My hope is that they don't go cheap at catcher, even if it is a 1-2 year deal with someone they trade for.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 6, 2014 21:39:15 GMT -5
The Sox have a good player at catcher, and another coming. Neither of them is Lavarnway. Neither of them will be replaced by Russell Martin either. The team has been positioning Vazquez and Swihart as viable backstops for years. Now they get to reap the rewards. My own opinion is that they should have brought the former up even earlier than they did. There's a reason why they traded Saltalamacchia and released Pierzynski. It wasn't to go big on catcher in the off-season. They've got holes to fill, but the one behind the plate doesn't exist any longer.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan1994 on Oct 7, 2014 1:34:38 GMT -5
I would not be mad about Vasquez hitting .220....I expect it. If he hit .230-.240 I would be pumped. He's never gonna come close to anchoring this lineup and nobody expects him to. The way he keeps this job is if he produces defensively, and from everything I have seen from his "small" sample size, he has. He has the aggressiveness, the confidence, and the arm to be a strong defensive catcher.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 7, 2014 6:31:57 GMT -5
VarneyGuy, can I just ask, why are you so focused on the small major league sample size as it relates to Vazquez's defense? You realize they have his entire minor league body of work when making this evaluation, and that the major league numbers corroborate what his minor league numbers probably show, right? I'm not sure I buy the "he beat up on awful pitchers in September" argument without data. If you want, here's his numbers by pitcher: www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?batter=vazquch01. I'm not seeing anything like an 0-fer against any decent MLB pitching (see, for example, the 2-for-5 against Weaver), or that he significantly padded his numbers against scrubs. I could certainly be wrong. Is one of the more stat-inclined folks interested in doing something with this data? But at any rate, again, I don't think anyone here is expecting him to be above-average at the plate. He just needs to not be a total black hole. As far as the Cecchini comparison goes, to me there's Vazquez, whose carrying tolls and skills relate to his defense and who just had a superlative defensive season across AAA and MLB, and then there's Cecchini, whose carrying tools and skills relate to his offense and just had a season in Triple-A in which he had a months-long slump. That's the major difference, to me. Finally, just to address the Middlebrooks and JBJ comparisons you mention: 1) Actually, this being an outcome for Middlebrooks wasn't beyond the pale really. There were many on this forum that weren't convinced he'd hit based on the same issues we've seen him have in the majors. I'll admit to not being one of them, although I didn't think he'd be an all-star or anything. I think we tend to overrate what people thought of him because he was the system's top prospect at a time it was severely lacking in high-end prospects. 2) We can all admit that nobody saw JBJ's disaster of a season coming (right?), but in my opinion, he was so much of an outlier in that respect - not that he struggled, as many MLB rookies struggled this year, but to the degree that he was probably the worst offensive player in the game - that he almost can't be used as a comparison. I got reports that there were some scouts who saw a fourth outfielder, but I don't think anyone thought he'd be this bad. And nobody is saying Vazquez is going to be Mookie Betts, so I'm not sure what the reason is for bringing him up.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2014 7:03:56 GMT -5
Not sure what happened to this thread, but it's of much lower quality than usual for this forum and is not far off an argument between people who demand "we need a catcher who can hit dingerz!" vs. people with a brain.
Sorry, that didn't raise the quality.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Oct 7, 2014 7:50:51 GMT -5
Catcher? Non issue. Next discussion, please.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 7, 2014 9:02:15 GMT -5
Not sure what happened to this thread, but it's of much lower quality than usual for this forum and is not far off an argument between people who demand "we need a catcher who can hit dingerz!" vs. people with a brain. Sorry, that didn't raise the quality. If you don't like it, you don't have to continue reading it. I obviously disagree with lavarnwayguy on this one, but his posts clearly meet the minimum threshold of intelligibility we ask posters to adhere to. That said, if you find yourself raising the same points over and over again, it's likely that the discussion at hand has run its course and it's time for everyone to move on. If you're not adding any new analysis, just accept that others disagree with you and you won't change their minds by repeating something you've already said.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 7, 2014 9:51:47 GMT -5
My bet is that Cechinni would hit significantly better than Vasquez even in 2015. No doubt Vasquez is the better defender but what will it cost to get a good player at 3rd and what will it cost to get a good player at catcher? We don't know those variables yet. My hope is that they don't go cheap at catcher, even if it is a 1-2 year deal with someone they trade for. It's not just that Vazquez is a better defender, it's that he's a MUCH better defender at the most important defensive position on the field, by far. Cecchini could be Adrian Beltre at third and still not be as valuable defensively as Vazquez. As an aside, Vazquez, Swihart, and Butler are all top-notch defenders; the Red Sox clearly prioritized that in their player development. And it's not like Swihart came in with the reputation as an elite defender ... I wonder what it is about their system that is producing this string of really strong defensive catchers. Just an interesting thing to watch going forward.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 7, 2014 11:11:27 GMT -5
As an aside, Vazquez, Swihart, and Butler are all top-notch defenders; the Red Sox clearly prioritized that in their player development. And it's not like Swihart came in with the reputation as an elite defender ... I wonder what it is about their system that is producing this string of really strong defensive catchers. Just an interesting thing to watch going forward. Luck and good coaching I guess? Only sort of kidding, but if you look at the three of them: Vazquez came in with a rep as a strong defender and has maximized his talent in that respect, it seems. Swihart had barely played the position, but had shown the athleticism to potentially be a good defender. He also has maximized his defensive potential, but at the time he was acquired, he was seen as a guy whose bat could play at an infield position like 3B if he couldn't hack it at catcher. Butler was a good defensive catcher, but he was basically a high-end JAG acquired at least in part because there was a need at catcher in Lowell. The Spinners began their season with a catching trio of Chia-Chu Chen (who sucked), Sean Killeen (JAG who got hurt), and Michael Thomas (who was needed in Greenville after the promotion of Tim Federowicz to Salem). Vazquez and Carson Blair were later promoted to Lowell, but Blair was still being taught the position, and Vazquez still couldn't hit his way out of a box. That Butler even reached Triple-A is a great ROI for the organization. You could add Tim Federowicz to the list as a slightly earlier example, but I don't think there's any particular focus on defensive catchers in the acquisition phase. Swihart, for example, came in as more the opposite. Same could be said for Ryan Lavarnway and Jon Denney. And they've also done plenty of moving guys to catcher (Blair, Ben Moore). Trying to think if there are any flameouts at catcher. Mark Wagner maybe? It's likely that credit falls on the coaching, led by Chad Epperson, who we've long heard is an outstanding coach. I'm surprised he's stayed in his catching coordinator role for as long as he has, as he was seen as a guy that could move up the ladder when he was managing. Must be getting paid well and love instructing that part of the game. The Sox really have done a great job historically of getting quality instructors in the system, and that's something we often overlook. Ralph Truel, the pitching coordinator, and Tim Hyers, the hitting coordinator, are others that come to mind as well-respected coaches.
|
|
|
Post by brockholtsuperstar on Oct 7, 2014 21:06:28 GMT -5
Would like to point out that the original topic of discussion was who would back-up Vasquez not advocating for a Russel Martin signing.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 7, 2014 21:52:46 GMT -5
I think I made it clear that I'd rather spend the money at catcher than 3rd. No one agreed. So be it. I hope you guys are right about Vasquez. I don't think he hits much higher than .220-.230 but if you are ok with that we can move on. We can put Mookie at 3rd, or Cechinni, Holt, Middlebrooks, maybe even Castillo. I'd roll the dice with what we have at 3rd and spend more at catcher, particularly in a 1-2 year deal. We could sign someone like JJ Hardy for SS and move Xander to 3rd. I could live with that. I'd prefer that to Headley and Sandoval but if it comes down to Headley or Sandoval at over 4 years and $60 mil, I'd be looking at Martin...
I wish I saw more good options as the back up catcher at least in the FA market. I think it's very likely that slot is one of several black holes maybe unless a significant trade is made or FA talent is signed, and even $50 mil goes fast. We need some offense given the numbers we put up this year. Jaso would be a good fit to me, considering how badly we need left handed bats, but even he is a significant cost maybe which probably involves at least one starting pitching prospect. When we are struggling against RH pitching all freaking year in 2015 maybe we will place a higher priority on the need for a quality LH bat at reserve catcher or some kind of offensive force at catcher. I keep hearing that we just need to fill the hole with a near journeyman level guy. I don't think so.
Right now look at the left handers in the lineup: a 39 year old Ortiz, an unproven Holt, a 3rd baseman to be named later (Headley or Sandoval maybe with all their shortcomings and cost ), Nava, and a reserve catcher (insert no good FA options here). And there are a whole lot more RH pitchers, than left handers in mlb. We may be in a bidding war with the Yanks and others for Headley. Sandoval looks like a major risk to me for the reasons jmei has clearly shown. And they want to contend in 2015?
I think we should be thinking outside the box on this one. The catching slot screams for looking outside the FA market to me, unless they do make a run at Martin, which we all think is extremely unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 11, 2014 22:19:16 GMT -5
While a veteran sounds really good as a compliment to Vazquez, I still like butler as the backup because we can make varitek available to mentor Vazquez all season long if need be.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 12, 2014 0:33:04 GMT -5
If there is a need to create a spot on the 40 man this winter, and I'm pretty sure there will be, Butler and Hassan are my first 2 slots opened up. About the only thing Butler has in his favor is that he has more options than Lavarnway, who is basically out of options now as I understand it, but Lavarnway is clearly worth more than Butler to me. I think they would prefer keeping Lavarnway but being out of options is probably the kiss of death for him .
Someone needs to be injury depth at least for a while, and it may be Butler, but I wouldn't count on it.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2014 15:56:00 GMT -5
Given the free agent choices and the team's presumed willingness to go with Vazquez next year, I would go with Butler and play him once every 5 games or so. Unless you can get Ross for around $1M and only play him once every 5-6 games but I don't think Farrell could control himself.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Oct 13, 2014 18:24:23 GMT -5
I don't think Farrell could control himself. Depends whether Lester is back I suppose.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 13, 2014 21:36:07 GMT -5
Given the free agent choices and the team's presumed willingness to go with Vazquez next year, I would go with Butler and play him once every 5 games or so. Unless you can get Ross for around $1M and only play him once every 5-6 games but I don't think Farrell could control himself. Ross's performance was very weak this year and the 34 percent k rate says he has lost a ton of bat speed.
|
|
|
Post by garnotte12 on Oct 14, 2014 11:12:47 GMT -5
1-Castillo CF 2-Pedroia 2B 3-Cespedes RF 4-Ortiz DH 5-Napoli 1B 6-Bogearts SS 7-Russell Martin C 8-Victorino or Craig LF 9-Betts 3B
UT Holt OF-1B Nava C Vazquez
Pretty good line-up!!! Sign Russell Martin. He has been playing in the majors for 9 years...help his team make the playoffs 7 times. Pitchers loves him. Has best CS rate in MLB, best blocker and top 3 in framing...and hits too...with some pop!! What else do we want. We could use Swihart in a package in a big trade for a top SP.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 11:18:48 GMT -5
1-Castillo CF 2-Pedroia 2B 3-Cespedes RF 4-Ortiz DH 5-Napoli 1B 6-Bogearts SS 7-Russell Martin C 8-Victorino or Craig LF 9-Betts 3B UT Holt OF-1B Nava C Vazquez Pretty good line-up!!! Sign Russell Martin. He has been playing in the majors for 9 years...help his team make the playoffs 7 times. Pitchers loves him. Has best CS rate in MLB, best blocker and top 3 in framing...and hits too...with some pop!! What else do we want. We could use Swihart in a package in a big trade for a top SP. Martin seems hardly necessary to me. Is that a good place to allocate our resources when our needs are clearly on the pitching side? Martin, before his 2014 season where he posted a BABIP 50 points higher than he has in any of the five previous seasons, was a .702 OPS guy (92 OPS+). He turns 32 before the 2015 season, plays the most demanding position, and already has injury concerns. We have a young, elite defensive catcher with more offensive upside than people give him credit already on the major league squad, and the number one prospect in our system is a highly promising catcher in AAA.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 16, 2014 12:07:47 GMT -5
FWIW:
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 46s46 seconds ago pirates plan to extend qualifying offer to star catcher russell martin.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 16, 2014 12:24:10 GMT -5
FWIW: Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 46s46 seconds ago pirates plan to extend qualifying offer to star catcher russell martin. ...which means you'd have to offer the guy a multi-year deal at a minimum of $12 million (depending on how much of a discount off the $15 million QO he'd give you for committing additional years to him). And you lose a draft pick - though not the first rounder in the Sox' case which is protected. That's probably about one-fourth of what the team has available to spend this year without going over the cap. After which they relegate Vazquez to the bench. Everybody on board with that?
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Oct 16, 2014 14:56:48 GMT -5
Given that the team passed on retaining Saltalamacchia last winter so as not to block Vazquez and Swihart in 2015 and beyond, I'm curious why some think they would now commit multiple years to a guy like Martin.
Vazquez plus a solid veteran backup is the plan, at least until Swihart is ready to challenge him.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 16, 2014 17:46:08 GMT -5
Given that the team passed on retaining Saltalamacchia last winter so as not to block Vazquez and Swihart in 2015 and beyond, I'm curious why some think they would now commit multiple years to a guy like Martin. Vazquez plus a solid veteran backup is the plan, at least until Swihart is ready to challenge him. nuffced, I am in total agreement. What a luxury it would be to have Vasquez and Swihart a year or two from now. Both are very good defensive catchers and Swihart is a good hitter (S/H) with power. Vasquez will get better too with the bat. I have constantly championed patience. Let's let it happen and not force matters. I don't care much if we are in the playoffs next year if we are positioned for 4-5 years thereafter.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 16, 2014 21:38:34 GMT -5
Given that the team passed on retaining Saltalamacchia last winter so as not to block Vazquez and Swihart in 2015 and beyond, I'm curious why some think they would now commit multiple years to a guy like Martin. Vazquez plus a solid veteran backup is the plan, at least until Swihart is ready to challenge him. nuffced, I am in total agreement. What a luxury it would be to have Vasquez and Swihart a year or two from now. Both are very good defensive catchers and Swihart is a good hitter (S/H) with power. Vasquez will get better too with the bat. I have constantly championed patience. Let's let it happen and not force matters. I don't care much if we are in the playoffs next year if we are positioned for 4-5 years thereafter. I really hope swihart gets a full season at Pawtucket. I think he needs those at bats and that experience. For 2016 if Ortiz is retired, it does open up dh at bats for whoever is not catching.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 16, 2014 21:41:15 GMT -5
nuffced, I am in total agreement. What a luxury it would be to have Vasquez and Swihart a year or two from now. Both are very good defensive catchers and Swihart is a good hitter (S/H) with power. Vasquez will get better too with the bat. I have constantly championed patience. Let's let it happen and not force matters. I don't care much if we are in the playoffs next year if we are positioned for 4-5 years thereafter. I really hope swihart gets a full season at Pawtucket. I think he needs those at bats and that experience. For 2016 if Ortiz is retired, it does open up dh at bats for whoever is not catching. So if Ortiz is retired and Swihart is catching, you'd want Vazquez to DH? I'm not sure that makes any sense. I think he's a better hitter than he's shown, but not good enough that I'd want him to DH. Sooner or later one of those two, and I would think it would be Vazquez, would be dealt. They're both catchers who should be catching 120 or so games per year. Swihart's bat might allow him to DH on off-days, but I don't think that's the case with Vazquez.
|
|
|