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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 13, 2015 15:27:55 GMT -5
Some under-the-radar-type bullpen names that caught my attention at a cursory glance: - Ronald Belisario: terrible ERA last year (5.56), but pretty good peripherals (3.54 FIP/3.69 xFIP) and has been a pretty solid reliever over his career (career 94 FIP-). Not a big strikeout guy, but gets a ton of ground balls (career 60.4%). He has huge splits (career 3.08 FIP vs. RHH, 4.50 FIP vs. LHH), which means he's probably better suited to be a matchup middle reliever than a true setup guy. Should be cheap (the $3m range), though.
- John Axford: very homer-prone in recent years (1.24 HR/9 over the last three years), which is weird considering his ability to get tons of Ks combined with an above-average ground ball rate (over the same period, 10.52 K/9 and 47.9% GB). ERA estimators think he's been much better than his ERA (3.57 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA compared to a 4.24 ERA over the last three years). There were reports last offseason that he was tipping pitches, though he continued to give up a good number of home runs in 2014 (though less than in prior years; instead, his issue last year was a ballooning walk rate). He does still throw hard (94.4 mph last year), though that's a little down from his peak years. Interesting note: he has neutral-to-reverse splits over his career (career 3.24 FIP vs. LHH, 3.60 FIP versus RHH, though the xFIP splits are 3.39/L and 3.20/R), meaning he'd be a good fit for a Red Sox bullpen lacking a reliable lefty.
- Joba Chamberlain: don't laugh. Blew it in the playoffs but had a pretty good regular season. Gets strikeouts and ground balls, and is still only 29. Another guy with relatively neutral L/R splits.
At this point the Red Sox have locked in Breslow, Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, and Vavarro. That leaves Layne, Britton, Boggs, Workman, and Wright as the likely candidates for the final two spots. The Red Sox would prefer to have a lefty in one of those spots and you'd also like to have someone who can pitch some innings in there too. To sign a guy to a major league deal, he has to be an obviously better candidate than these guys because you will have to cut a player to get him on the roster. I just don't see a guy on your list who is worth that given the current state of the bullpen. The Red Sox should sign some more pitchers to minor league deals to compete with the group mentioned above and I suspect they will. I think that all three pitchers that you list will get major league deals somewhere or a minor league deal where they are all but assured of a major league job.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 15, 2015 8:45:34 GMT -5
I don't think Breslow is locked in anywhere. He was too bad last year for that guarantee. I also think, if his medicals look alright, then they should be all over Ogando. The bullpen is way too important and, I feel they've left it way too vulnerable at this point. Ogando is a guy who can dominate and has, when healthy. It's a huge upside play with very low risk. I'm sure he will get a chunk of change, but almost certainly a 1 year deal. They have the money and ability to spend it, they should go for it. He's the one guy that could conceivably be a dominant late innings guy and if he doesn't live up to it you're still in the same spot as now.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 15, 2015 10:40:05 GMT -5
He would have to pitch pretty badly in the spring or be injured not to make the team at this point. As I have said before his troubles last year can easily be explained by his post-season workload 2013 workload. By the end of the World Series you could easily see that he was laboring.
Note that Ogando had a real injury and Breslow did not. I'd sign him to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training and an opt out at the end of the spring. If he makes the team give him $3M. If you want to wink at him and tell him that he'll make the team as long as he's healthy and not getting completely bombed then that's fine too. The Sox are in a spot where they don't want to cut anyone right now but they are going to have a roster spot or two open at the end of the spring.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Feb 3, 2015 13:03:19 GMT -5
Am I the only one who's worried about Koji?
There were/are some decent arms available late that could have been had for cheap. (Axford, Perez, Janssen). None are great options, but they would have cost pennies on the dollar compared to what we gave Koji.
Ogando I like. Should be a productive player for our pen.
So locks are: Koji, Mujica, Taz, Ogando, Breslow, Vavarro.
So that leaves, Ross, Layne, Workman, Barnes, and Boggs for the final spot.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 3, 2015 13:30:56 GMT -5
I think Ross is more of a lock than Breslow.
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 3, 2015 13:50:35 GMT -5
I think Ross is more of a lock than Breslow. No doubt about it. Regarding Koji, no I'm not worried. It's hard to see him replicating the success he's had the past two seasons, but a complete fall off is unlikely. Even if he struggles, bullpens are volatile, so someone will emerge as closer. Lest us not forget that Koji only emerged as closer in June of 2013 after Hanrahan and Bailey failed to secure the job. If Koji struggles, reasonable closing options are Tazawa, Mujica, Ogando, Ross, and potential wild cards in Hembree, Barnes, etc.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 24, 2015 18:14:07 GMT -5
Ogando I like. Should be a productive player for our pen. So locks are: Koji, Mujica, Taz, Ogando, Breslow, Vavarro. So that leaves, Ross, Layne, Workman, Barnes, and Boggs for the final spot. Farrell was recently quoted as describing the first five of your locks as "the core" of the bullpen, which naturally led lazy media types to assume that there were two jobs open. But Varvaro is really good and is out of options. He indeed has a spot unless something very strange happens. It's very, very likely that the seventh spot goes to a second lefty, either Ross, Layne, or (since they both have an option left) Dana Eveland. In my book that leaves Wright, Workman, Boggs, and the other two LHR (three might be even better than two) as potentially worthy candidates who look likely to get shut out no matter how well they pitch. (While Barnes could well be in the MLB pen by year's end, there's no way he's even in the mix in ST given all the depth ahead of him, and the fact that he still projects as a mid-rotation starter given last year's improvement in his curve.) For that reason, dealing Mujica seems like a very viable ST move, as has been speculated ever since we signed Ogando.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 24, 2015 21:19:26 GMT -5
jmei
•Joba Chamberlain: don't laugh. Blew it in the playoffs but had a pretty good regular season. Gets strikeouts and ground balls, and is still only 29. Another guy with relatively neutral L/R splits.
jmei, sorry I do have to laugh. What we don't need is another Ramiro Mendoza, the original "imbedded Yankee".
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 25, 2015 9:36:46 GMT -5
Chamberlain resigns with Tigers.....Whew.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 2:49:06 GMT -5
Chamberlain resigns with Tigers.....Whew. Yes but as a reliever. Anybody remember: "Any idiot knows that a guy that throws that fast is a starter." ? The Tigers also have one more guy with nipple rings than the Sox.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2015 19:00:07 GMT -5
Bumping this thread just because I think it's big news that we've committed Barnes to the bullpen seemingly full-time. Hopefully he adjusts quickly, because a young plus reliever would provide huge relief to this bullpen. This is particularly true because our bottom couple of options are so bad (Mujica, Breslow) that replacing them with a plus reliever would be a major turnaround.
6th inning: Ogando 7th inning: Barnes 8th inning: Tazawa 9th inning: Uehara
This isn't a bad setup if Barnes proves to be a good reliever. If some LHP steps up as a lefty killer (Layne, maybe Escobar down the road when healthy), the pen would be in solid shape.
Really rooting for Barnes to adjust quickly and that his stuff plays up in relief.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2015 19:55:55 GMT -5
I tend to think the top three guys currently in line for high-leverage innings (Ogando, Tazawa, and Uehara) are at least league averagish, and it's the squishy middle and back of the bullpen that's the issue. Guys like Mujica, Breslow, Ross, Layne, etc. are pretty much replacement level, which is an issue when your starters aren't going deep into games and your closer is old/fragile. I agree that Barnes and Escobar are intriguing internal options, and there are always decent bullpen arms available at the deadline.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2015 20:16:30 GMT -5
Of some relevance, here is MGL's twitter sermon for today:
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Post by James Dunne on May 6, 2015 20:21:13 GMT -5
Except for the Royals. The Royals bullpen is stupid good.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2015 20:25:41 GMT -5
Except for the Royals. The Royals bullpen is stupid good. You were of course not the only person with that thought. Jason Coleman @jayhawkjac · 4h4 hours ago @mitchellichtman So if I were to say that I think that the Royals have a really good bullpen and will going forward, you would say to me... Mitchel Lichtman @mitchellichtman @jayhawkjac Now, if you happen to have 3 very good relievers and you can use them for 3-4 innings every day in a playoff situation... Mitchel Lichtman @mitchellichtman @jayhawkjac ..that's a different situation. Jason Coleman @jayhawkjac · 3h3 hours ago @mitchellichtman so is asking about a bullpen as a whole asking the wrong question? Do only the guys who pitch in high levg really matter? Jason Coleman @jayhawkjac · 3h3 hours ago @mitchellichtman what does it matter how your 5-7 guys out of the pen do? They don't pitch much when it matters. Is this false? Mitchel Lichtman @mitchellichtman · 2h2 hours ago @jayhawkjac They matter more, but the other guys don't NOT matter. Games are rarely blowouts. All relievers get some decent and high lev Mitchel Lichtman @mitchellichtman · 2h2 hours ago @jayhawkjac situations. You won't see 5-7 relievers having average leverage of like .5 or .6. It doesn't work that way.
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Post by mookiemagicfan on May 7, 2015 9:04:40 GMT -5
Sox have finally DFA mujica!
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 7, 2015 9:32:42 GMT -5
The problems with that bullpen analysis is that it does not take the individual needs of teams into account and because it is using averages, it does not take into account the fact that you can get the same average from having one or two phenomenally good RPs and the rest mediocre or worse as you can from six guys basically average.
And so even if a team's bullpen is average, it may not be what that team needs. A team with starting pitchers who go deep into games needs to have maybe two really good RPs, including a shutdown closer. Because they wouldn't pitch that much, the rest could be mediocre.
A team like the Sox, with starters who struggle to even get quality starts, needs a BP composed of more RPs of above average quality, but not necessarily a shut-down closer. They need RPs who can be brought into the game in earlier innings and then can shut down rallies. If the other teams keep scoring four, five or six runs off starters in the first five innings, who the team has as a closer is not as important as who can be brought in to stop that scoring. Mediocre RPs, like several the Sox have, don't have that ability.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 7, 2015 9:42:51 GMT -5
I'd like to have two lefties and a long-man after; Koji, Tazawa, Ogando and Barnes. Masterson will be the long-man after E-Rod gets a few more starts. Masterson can be used when teams use righty-heavy line-ups against Miley and E-Rod.
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Post by mgoetze on May 7, 2015 9:51:52 GMT -5
The problems with that bullpen analysis is that it does not take the individual needs of teams into account and because it is using averages, it does not take into account the fact that you can get the same average from having one or two phenomenally good RPs and the rest mediocre or worse as you can from six guys basically average. If by "that analysis", you mean MGL's twitter comments that I posted, you seem to have missed the part where he stated, "I then weighted that performance by approximate leverage." And if you have oh-so-many starters that "can go deep into games", you will often enough have the situation where your top guy is unavailable because he already pitched 2 days in a row. More importantly, "can go deep into games" doesn't mean "will go deep into games" - the former describes almost every MLB starter and the latter describes almost none of them. There is no such thing anymore as a starter who will consistently manage 7 innings.
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2015 10:00:18 GMT -5
Except maybe Price and Kershaw.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2015 10:24:23 GMT -5
With Barnes-Mujica seemingly happening, the next move I'd like to see is a long man for the rest of the month. Give the rotation a couple more weeks to work out the kinks, but in the meantime, have a guy around to take some innings so you stop blowing out the bullpen every time a starter fails to go five. I'd say one of the lefties down, Wright up. Then maybe in June, if one of the kids is ready, Masterson to the pen to make room for either Rodriguez or Johnson (DFA Spruill).
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Post by mattpicard on May 7, 2015 10:51:13 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 10s10 seconds ago Everyone keeps saying expect Barnes to replace Mujica on the roster. PawSox radio guys just said Barnes is in the dugout in Toledo.
#Varvaro
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2015 11:15:43 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 10s10 seconds ago Everyone keeps saying expect Barnes to replace Mujica on the roster. PawSox radio guys just said Barnes is in the dugout in Toledo. #Varvaro Red Sox have an offday today. Call up would come tomorrow.
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Post by Coreno on May 7, 2015 11:29:37 GMT -5
That might actually be an indicator that he is headed to Toronto considering he's in the dugout and not the bullpen
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2015 11:59:40 GMT -5
That might actually be an indicator that he is headed to Toronto considering he's in the dugout and not the bullpen He pitched last night. He's not available probably.
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