SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 12:42:40 GMT -5
The problems with that bullpen analysis is that it does not take the individual needs of teams into account and because it is using averages, it does not take into account the fact that you can get the same average from having one or two phenomenally good RPs and the rest mediocre or worse as you can from six guys basically average. If by "that analysis", you mean MGL's twitter comments that I posted, you seem to have missed the part where he stated, "I then weighted that performance by approximate leverage." And if you have oh-so-many starters that "can go deep into games", you will often enough have the situation where your top guy is unavailable because he already pitched 2 days in a row. More importantly, "can go deep into games" doesn't mean "will go deep into games" - the former describes almost every MLB starter and the latter describes almost none of them. There is no such thing anymore as a starter who will consistently manage 7 innings. It probably would have been useful to have some data before pontificating, and I developed some that I find interesting, and revealing. To define deep into a game today, I think it is pitching at least to the seventh inning, although it should be to the eighth inning. But you are absolutely correct. There are only five starting pitchers in all of baseball averaging 7 or more innings per start, and none averaging 8 or more. Those five are: Scherzer, Gray, Keuchel, Leake and Cueto. All major league teams use five man rotations, and all but a handful have stuck with their initial rotations so far. About 160 of the 485 pitchers who have appeared in games so far this year have made starts. Of those, 64 have averaged at least six six to six plus but less than seven innings per start. All five starters of both the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants are doing that. Four of Detroit's starters also are doing that. St. Louis had three until Wainwright went down. Other teams with three: Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Yankees, and Miami. Average innings per start for the Red Sox: Porcello 6.5 Kelly 5.6 Masterson 5.5 Buchholz 5.2 Miley 4.4 Incidentally, Lester is averaging 5.87 innings per start. De La Rosa is averaging 6.0 for Arizona.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 7, 2015 12:50:02 GMT -5
Sure, but you need to realize that averaging 6 innings means you are likely to go 7 innings one game and 5 innings in the next game. You can't just say "this guy averages 6 innings, so you need 3 relievers for him".
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2015 12:51:02 GMT -5
You also can't compare NL and AL pitchers because of all the free outs they get in the NL along with being taken out for a pitch hitter earlier than they may have been able to go.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 12:54:47 GMT -5
The average innings pitched by Sox starters per game comes out to 5.44. I haven't computed the league average, but it obviously is under six. But I think the Sox average is close to the bottom.
The implications for the Sox of the average innings being pitched by Sox starters is that relief pitchers are having to average nearly 3 2/3 innings per game. That isn't sustainable, at least not with this bullpen. I'm not sure it would be for any.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 12:56:33 GMT -5
Sure, but you need to realize that averaging 6 innings means you are likely to go 7 innings one game and 5 innings in the next game. You can't just say "this guy averages 6 innings, so you need 3 relievers for him". Of course. Averages are averages. But when the entire staff is barely getting through five innings, on average, there is a problem.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2015 12:58:10 GMT -5
It's also way early to be looking at this since they are all on pretty low pitch counts in April because they're still building arm strength. Most have been taken out around 100 pitches. Most will go longer in the summer.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 7, 2015 12:58:40 GMT -5
But when the entire staff is barely getting through five innings, on average, there is a problem. Yes. The problem is John Farrell hooking starters who are pitching well and have a pitch count below 100.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 13:02:47 GMT -5
You also can't compare NL and AL pitchers because of all the free outs they get in the NL along with being taken out for a pitch hitter earlier than they may have been able to go. One of those can cancel out the other. As it turns out there are about 10 more pitchers in the National League averaging six or more innings a start than there are in the American League.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 13:04:07 GMT -5
But when the entire staff is barely getting through five innings, on average, there is a problem. Yes. The problem is John Farrell hooking starters who are pitching well and have a pitch count below 100. I assume you meant to put that in italics unless you simply are being snarky for reasons that escape me.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 7, 2015 13:06:53 GMT -5
Yes. The problem is John Farrell hooking starters who are pitching well and have a pitch count below 100. I assume you meant to put that in italics unless you simply are being snarky for reasons that escape me. Why would you assume that? I'm dead serious. Joe Kelly on April 22nd was particularily egregious. 7 K, 1 BB (two of those ball should have been strikes), hooked after 5+ IP.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 13:08:36 GMT -5
It's also way early to be looking at this since they are all on pretty low pitch counts in April because they're still building arm strength. Most have been taken out around 100 pitches. Most will go longer in the summer. I agree and that's why there have been more than 300 relief pitchers used so far. However, there still are quite a teams that keep their pitchers on pitch counts most of the time. But I think the the count usually varies with the pitcher. Normally, pitchers like Lester or Porcello won't be taken out at a certain number, but younger pitchers, or ones that have a history of rapidly disintegrating after a certain count will be.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 7, 2015 13:22:13 GMT -5
I assume you meant to put that in italics unless you simply are being snarky for reasons that escape me. Why would you assume that? I'm dead serious. Joe Kelly on April 22nd was particularily egregious. 7 K, 1 BB (two of those ball should have been strikes), hooked after 5+ IP. I'm not about to try to explain Farrell's actions. I frequently am confused by them. I remember that game very well. However, it has been a rare occasion this year when a starter has come up while pitching well.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2015 14:32:49 GMT -5
If Ruben Amaro were sane and reasonable, bringing Papelbon back and having him set up Koji would be a massive no-brainer. Not trading him will be inexcusable, so maybe they can work something out.
There are other possible acquisitions -- Francisco Rodriguez and Will Smith of the Brewers, John Axford of the Rockies -- but none of them are in Papelbon's class in terms of quality.
|
|
|
Post by mookiemagicfan on May 14, 2015 10:41:52 GMT -5
I really like that the Sox moved Light to the bp this year. He didn't seem to be clicking as a starter, plus his high 90s FB and his plus split will play up much better out of the bp. His coach down in the Cape in 2012 mentioned his was BTC (born to close) I have the article but am still working on my technical stupidity to be able to post it here. But I finally think the F.O. is starting to catch on to the Royals play of attack of the bp...gas gas and more gas ("how much gas you need!"-Pedro) Maybe having a homegrown bp with pitchers who could potentially be back end starters, but in shorter stints have much better pitches, could be a huge move for the Sox. Maybe not this year, but it seems that this is the trend. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/05/14/red-sox-minor-league-notebook-born-to-close-starter-turned-reliever-pat-light-thriving-in-new-role/Hahahha I got it!
|
|
|
Post by p23w on May 14, 2015 13:13:01 GMT -5
Papelbon would be an intriguing acquisition. I believe he would close, however. Uehara would revert to the 8th inning. JP is "stat" conscious, and he projects to be 8th or 9th all time in saves at the end of 2015.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2015 14:02:23 GMT -5
Is Papelbon's option an automatically-vesting option, or is a player option that vests? Because if it is automatically vesting, he may not want it to - he's still pitching well, and can probably do better than a 1/$13M. In that case, he might welcome a trade to become setup man for Boston - he's in a place he'll be comfortable, his option won't vest, and he won't be eligible for a QO (because of an in-season trade).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 14:54:12 GMT -5
I believe it's a fully automatic vesting option, based on media reports when the deal was first signed and the fact that noone has characterized it as a player option.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on May 14, 2015 15:03:53 GMT -5
If this team continues to be average over the next two months, forget what I'm about to say. But if the lineup starts to click, and we believe we're a SP away from being serious contenders, I'd be all for a Cueto + Chapman acquisition. Would take a lot to get them, but we're going to need a go-to pen arm beyond 2015, and who better to get than Aroldis?
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 14, 2015 15:04:06 GMT -5
Because if it is automatically vesting, he may not want it to - he's still pitching well, and can probably do better than a 1/$13M. If by "better" you mean more years then yes, but I would consider it highly unlikely he touches that AAV. Robertson and Miller got less and they're not pitching any worse than Papelbon. I'm sure the Red Sox would not want the option to vest. As long as Koji is around there's probably nothing Papelbon can do about it, but if Koji goes down and the option can still vest you're probably looking at a grievance hearing.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 15:04:36 GMT -5
That said, I find it hard to believe he could meaningfully beat 1/$13m on the open market. He could get 2/$20m or something like that (which, frankly, is probably inferior to 1/$13m), but older closers aren't breaking the bank. K-Rod got just 2/$13m coming off a pretty decent 2014, Uehara got 2/$18m, Huston Street's extension is 2/$18m, Joe Nathan got 2/$20m. Teams just aren't overpaying for that closer mystique anymore, especially for guys like Papelbon with a lot of mileage on their arm and velo issues.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on May 14, 2015 16:28:38 GMT -5
Sorry if dumb question in advanced, But I know when starters move up the Sox want them to pitch 50 innings per level, But what do they look for in the bullpen? just mastering 2 pitches and swing and miss stuff? Intheory you can move up quick though the levels. I hope Light keeps it up and I love Gunkel.
What is the deal with Noe Ramirez his stikeouts to walks are pretty good. Also Eveland is doing good in AaA. iT looks like the Sox can replenish that bullpen fast.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on May 14, 2015 16:31:27 GMT -5
Pat Light could be a stud in relief. Really rooting for him.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2015 16:43:07 GMT -5
Sorry if dumb question in advanced, But I know when starters move up the Sox want them to pitch 50 innings per level, But what do they look for in the bullpen? just mastering 2 pitches and swing and miss stuff? Intheory you can move up quick though the levels. I hope Light keeps it up and I love Gunkel. What is the deal with Noe Ramirez his stikeouts to walks are pretty good. Also Eveland is doing good in AaA. iT looks like the Sox can replenish that bullpen fast. Well, I disagree that 50 innings per level is a thing. Haven't seen that ever. Promotions are always based on whether the team thinks a player is ready for the next level. Specific development goals are different for every player - it's not like to get to a given level, every pitcher needs to check boxes A, B, and C. It's kind of a mushy standard, but that's because it has to be. It's human development. As for the players you mention, Noe Ramirez was just put on the DL with the dreaded "forearm strain," so we'll see what happens there. Eveland has been ok, but I can't see them bothering to add him to the 40 while they have three lefties in the MLB bullpen unless he's absolutely shoving. Will be something based more on their looks at him than stats, obviously. Strangely, he's got a pretty strong reverse split on the year as well.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on May 15, 2015 0:34:38 GMT -5
Papelbon would be an intriguing acquisition. I believe he would close, however. Uehara would revert to the 8th inning. JP is "stat" conscious, and he projects to be 8th or 9th all time in saves at the end of 2015. What Papelbon thinks is immaterial. Uehara is the better pitcher, and Farrell believes (credibly) that the reason he's been such a great closer is that hitters have a different approach in the 9th, allowing Uehara to throw his splitter more and get it chased more.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on May 15, 2015 6:39:55 GMT -5
Papelbon would be an intriguing acquisition. I believe he would close, however. Uehara would revert to the 8th inning. JP is "stat" conscious, and he projects to be 8th or 9th all time in saves at the end of 2015. What Papelbon thinks is immaterial. Uehara is the better pitcher, and Farrell believes (credibly) that the reason he's been such a great closer is that hitters have a different approach in the 9th, allowing Uehara to throw his splitter more and get it chased more. What Papelbon thinks is not immaterial. He is one of 3 closers to hold all time save records for more than one team (Boston/Philadelphia). Whether Uehara is "better" at this point is debatable. Personally I think this would give Farrell another bullet and he should use either Papelbon or UEhara based on match-ups. I can't speak to the front office's apparent frugality when it comes to the bullpen. Their are less costly options available. I believe Cherrington's mantra of promoting from within is to be taken with a grain of salt, especially if this team evolves into a Pennant contender. On that note I have interest is Noe Raimerez. His stuff is not outstanding, but between the ears he has the making of a solid performer out of the bullpen.
|
|
|