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Jon Lester to the Cubs 6/155
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2014 9:00:31 GMT -5
Does anyone here truly believe that Hanley Ramirez is worth $22 million/year but Jon Lester isn't worth a dime more than the $22.5 million/year the Red Sox offered him? Yes. Steamer projects Hanley to be a 4 win player next year, Lester at 3.4, and while Hanley has more injury risk, at worst, they're still fairly comparable players. The Lester contract is also two more guaranteed years, which makes a huge difference when you're talking about a pitcher's age 35-6 seasons. The extra years are HUGE as Jmei notes which is why I'm reiterating it. Sox don't even consider 6 years with Hanley. Comparing AAV with no consideration for years is foolish.
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Post by nothingball on Dec 10, 2014 9:03:08 GMT -5
I, for one, commend the FO for sticking to their guns. They assigned value to Lester and didn't budge. There aren't many first rate times able to do this.
Second, this speaks volumes to the mindset that FO used during the spending spree of December 2011. I think the culprit behind those bloated contracts is much clearer now. While Theo walks around with the "wonderkind"/can do no wrong attitude, I'm much happier knowing our front office can demonstrate the kind of restrain needed to build a well structured team, not only financially, but talent-wise.
While it certainly burns to lose one of our own, that contract we be difficult to stomach in a few years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2014 9:05:03 GMT -5
Right before the trade deadline, amfox1 collected a list of the maximum amount that posters would be willing to offer Jon Lester in an extension. That list is here. Out of 34 responses, none of you went up to $155m or were willing to offer a vesting seventh year, only one of you (congrats, moonstone) was willing to go up to $150m, and only three of you were willing to go up to the $135m that the front office offered in the end. Now, I know that Lester has since put up another three months of excellent pitching after we collected those responses, and so it is reasonable to think that your price will have risen since then. But it certainly shouldn't have risen this much. As such, I think it's important to note that many of you who are now blasting the front office for not matching the Cubs' offer are on record as saying that you would have given Lester a maximum contract of 5/$110m-ish as recently as four months ago. I wanted Lester Back. We need pitching and Lester has been a very good pitcher for us. 155 million over 6 years or 170 million over 7 years. WOW, he had a career year last year, great timing, Cubs are paying him to be that player for the next 6 to 7 years. I am happy the Sox drew the line at 135 over 6 years. That was a very fair offer, heck that was an overpay.
We now get to see how good our GM is. I can't wait to see what he does!!
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2014 9:05:59 GMT -5
The front office now cannot say' "we lost Lester, but we stuck to our principles of not offering long term contracts to pitchers over 30". People need to stop saying these are their principles. They have stated multiple times this is not the case. They have been pretty clear they are very cautious about it and the fact they know Lester so well was obviously a big factor in them going there. Not to mention, if it were a principle at one time, I have no issues with them changing their minds as they see how the landscape changes both internally and externally. One of their advantages is their ability to spend money but they should strategically do so.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Dec 10, 2014 9:10:20 GMT -5
Stop preaching and scolding like some schoolmistress. I think we're all adult enough that we can handle uses of "fraud" Jeesh You guys can go read the Forum Ground Rules BTW this getting to be off topic if you have any problems with my directions contact me via pm. You really need to get these newbies in order. Everyone knows I'm the only one who's allowed to attack you.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Dec 10, 2014 9:19:14 GMT -5
As for the Lester deal, I'm okay with not giving him that kind of money (FTR, I'm not okay with the money Panda got). He's been worth that kind of money for exactly one season ... and it just so happened to be his contract year. That type of thing always makes me a little skeptical.
(I also still despise the owners with every bone in my body - not for messing up this deal, but for being dreadful human beings. That's a whole other story, though.)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 9:20:07 GMT -5
At the end of the day, Lester just took the most money when you consider state taxes and the option year. I was wondering why he picked Chicago over the Giants and that would seem to explain it. The fact that he was obsessing over something like taxes I think highlights the fact it really was about money all along.
I doubt the hometown discount stuff was ever true.
Between this, Theo, and Maddon it will be very easy to root against the Cubs.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 9:27:19 GMT -5
At the end of the day, Lester just took the most money when you consider state taxes and the option year. I was wondering why he picked Chicago over the Giants and that would seem to explain it. The fact that he was obsessing over something like taxes I think highlights the fact it really was about money all along. I doubt the hometown discount stuff was ever true. Between this, Theo, and Maddon it will be very easy to root against the Cubs. What did Lester and Theo do to become unlikable?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 9:28:14 GMT -5
At the end of the day, Lester just took the most money when you consider state taxes and the option year. I was wondering why he picked Chicago over the Giants and that would seem to explain it. The fact that he was obsessing over something like taxes I think highlights the fact it really was about money all along. I doubt the hometown discount stuff was ever true. Between this, Theo, and Maddon it will be very easy to root against the Cubs. What did Lester and Theo do to become unlikable? Left the Red Sox.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 9:29:53 GMT -5
What did Lester and Theo do to become unlikable? Left the Red Sox. Lester was traded, and I think we can all agree that Theo had a dickhead for a boss in Lucchino, so he took a promotion. Are you telling me you wouldn't take a promotion with another company if you had a terrible boss?
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Post by pedey on Dec 10, 2014 9:30:31 GMT -5
Apparently, the Sox offered Lester 135/6. That's an average salary of 22.5. That's only .5 million more a year than what they gave Hanley, who hasn't had a great year since 2010. Lester helped them win 2 world series and posted a sub-3 ERA last year. If I was Lester, I would take that as an insult.
EDIT: I think 22.5 AAV to Lester is a great offer. I just think the Sox grossly overpaid for Hanley. Therefore, I think the sox should have adjusted their payscale to retain Lester.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 9:30:33 GMT -5
To be fair I didn't like Chicago before this.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 9:34:05 GMT -5
Lester was traded, and I think we can all agree that Theo had a dickhead for a boss in Lucchino, so he took a promotion. Are you telling me you wouldn't take a promotion with another company if you had a terrible boss? No, not if I worked for the Red Sox. I don't expect everyone to be like that, but I don't have to care about them when they're gone either. I really don't root for the players. I root for the team.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 9:34:49 GMT -5
Apparently, the Sox offered Lester 135/6. That's an average salary of 22.5. That's only .5 million more a year than what they gave Hanley, who hasn't had a great year since 2010. Lester helped them win 2 world series and posted a sub-3 ERA last year. If I was Lester, I would take that as an insult. EDIT: I think 22.5 AAV to Lester is a great offer. I just think the Sox grossly overpaid for Hanley. 4 years vs 6, doesn't even compare whatsoever.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 9:37:19 GMT -5
Hanley and Sandoval took a discount to come here. Lester didn't.
Think about that for a second.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Dec 10, 2014 9:38:39 GMT -5
Apparently, the Sox offered Lester 135/6. That's an average salary of 22.5. That's only .5 million more a year than what they gave Hanley, who hasn't had a great year since 2010. Lester helped them win 2 world series and posted a sub-3 ERA last year. If I was Lester, I would take that as an insult. The winning 2 world series should have nothing to do with it. It is never a wise business decision to be sentimental and reward past successes. Yes Hanley got a comparable amount (Again at 2 years less which is critical) however similar to what Hatfield pointed out on Twitter last night, the cost of obtaining premier bats (Which Hanley has had terrific years in all years but 2011 and 2012) is higher than pitching given today's market. As such trades involving pitchers often feature below average returns to fanbases. If I was the Sox I would have probably crept up to the $145MM level or so as Lester doesn't cost a pick compared to a James Shields/Ervin Santana/Max Scherzer. But we will see what the ultimate plan is.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 9:41:44 GMT -5
Lester was traded, and I think we can all agree that Theo had a dickhead for a boss in Lucchino, so he took a promotion. Are you telling me you wouldn't take a promotion with another company if you had a terrible boss? No, not if I worked for the Red Sox. I don't expect everyone to be like that, but I don't have to care about them when they're gone either. I really don't root for the players. I root for the team. Cmon man, be serious. Lester and Theo owed nothing to the team or city, they had done plenty. And the hypothetical wasn't referring to you working for the Red Sox, I'm talking about real life, not a fantasy
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 10, 2014 9:54:54 GMT -5
Regardless of how this happened, with spring training negotiations, midseason trade, and free agency, I'm sad we didn't bring Jon back. 155M is has more risk than I would think is acceptable but I'm putting salaries and roster constructions aside for the time being. We saw Jon come through the farm system, beat cancer, win world series, eat chicken and drink bear. He was there for us through good times and bad. I was enamored reading the "evolution of a pitcher" series about him back in 2011 and how he is poised to break through as a Cy Young candidate, and cheerful when he was first announced as our opening day starter. I guess he never did quite reach those Cy Young expectations, but he was a cornerstone of our team for the past six years, and his potential has been rumored about long before that. In my head, every five days when Lester took the hill I perked up and was already chalking that game up as a win, something I won't be able to do anymore. And while this is no where near the Red Sox downfall it is still something that makes me sad. Good luck Jon, I hope you accomplish what you want to in Chicago and wish the best for you and your family.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 10:20:05 GMT -5
Ben Volin ?@benvolin 19s20 seconds ago Call me crazy, but if #RedSox traded Lester in July, then were $20m short in their contract offers, they probably weren't serious about him
Been saying this all along. They wanted to save face. #smearcampaign P.S. He's totally pulling a Bronson Arroyo and blasting one out in his first AB
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 10:23:19 GMT -5
6/135 is a serious offer. I hope you're kidding. John Henry met with him multiple times.
The Cubs just outbid us and Lester went to the highest bidder.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 10, 2014 10:30:15 GMT -5
The front office now cannot say' "we lost Lester, but we stuck to our principles of not offering long term contracts to pitchers over 30". I'll let you in on a little secret: that was never a principle. It was a narrative.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 10, 2014 10:32:56 GMT -5
6 years at $22.5 is about where I'd peg Lester's value.
Can't actually fault the Red Sox for going over that number.
6 years at $25.8 with a 7th year vesting is a lot different.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 10, 2014 10:37:25 GMT -5
I mean, Lester's spin PR crew can play this however he wants, that he wants to make history, but he just plain signed for the most money.
I can't fault him for that, but he is a liar. That's all their is to it. So the people who want to trash our owners and front office, take your crap elsewhere.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,795
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Post by mobaz on Dec 10, 2014 10:39:09 GMT -5
I really think folks are underselling how a move to the NL might extend his career, and thus his long term baseball legacy. I think he'll be able to age better and for the cubs the 36-37 might not look so bad in NL Central as opposed to AL East. To use a football analogy, Vinatieri moving indoors to dreaded Colts; worked out best for both player and team.
Wish he stayed for the Sox final offer though. It was a good price for him and team.
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Post by suttree on Dec 10, 2014 10:47:04 GMT -5
He took the best offer, that scoundrel.
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