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Report: Red Sox have agreement for Wade Miley
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2014 2:24:56 GMT -5
I'm absolutely at a loss to understand why you feel that way. The article makes it clear he has a lot to recommend him, and that his numbers have been distorted by his home field. In fact, this is probably the clearest list of his strengths I've seen so far. ...and there's more.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 2:25:49 GMT -5
Another way to look at this to compare Miley with Branden McCarthy and his new 4/48. Both of these pitchers have similar track records and project to have similar seasons next year. But Miley is 3 years younger and has the potential to better over the course of the next 3-4 years and will more than likely cost a fair bit less money over those years. It's basically about buying wins. There are many ways to do it. In this case the sox used prospects to acquire these wins. If Miley pitches the next 3 years at a similar pace to his last 3 (or 3X his 2015 steamer) he will be worth 8 wins. Those wins will come at a much cheaper rate than McCarthys. If he's worth 8 rWAR over the next three seasons it was a good trade, but he's only been worth 4.6WAR over the last three years. In 2012 3.3 WAR, 2013 1.3 and .8 last year. Steamer is projecting him to more like 2012 next year then 2013 and 2014. I hope they are right, I have my doubts.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 2:34:26 GMT -5
but he's going to provide us with 200 invaluable innings of 4+ERA and give up a hit/walk to almost 3 batters every 2 innings. He gave up 18 HR at home, and 5 on the road, despite pitching 20 more innings. Does that strike you as strange in any way? Since you're enamoured of ERA, let's use that. It was 3.17 when not in Arizona. I know all the wet-eyes find it hard to understand, but it really is different in Tuscon, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Reno, Colorado Springs, Phoenix... Oh, and Rubby's ERA was over 7 in September. I don't think he was quite ready for the playoffs. Rubby wore down at the end of the year, not a shock for a guy coming off tommy john surgery that was on a pitch and inning limit last year. His numbers were very impressive before his late season slump. I just really liked Rubby, thought he had a ceiling of a #3 starter, time will tell. As for Webster, sure I love his stuff, but he was just all over the place. He didn't put together strings of good starts like Rubby did. I understand why they made the trade, I just don't like it. If you trade Ranaudo and Webster I would like the trade more. Also what is the player to be named? It better not be a good prospect, heck we should be getting a prospect back!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2014 2:37:19 GMT -5
That's not accurate. Webster had 4 good starts in a row in September. That's where those numbers are from.
Add: ...and my point was that he didn't wear down.
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Post by thursty on Dec 11, 2014 2:40:09 GMT -5
It's getting worse. Pedro Gomez is reporting that there is a hangup on the 3rd player "because there's someone in the Red Sox's system that Arizona really likes and the Red Sox are refusing to give him up"
This is absurd - there simply isn't any #4 starter worth 3 players with high upside; I am not suggesting that RDLR or Webster's expected value is >= Miley's in 2015. That's wrong.
But you need to have basic negotiating skills - there is no way that Arizona has an alternative offer that includes 3 high ceiling prospects; not to mention that I've read that part of the Snakes' motivation is to dump salary.
Here's another consideration: Doubront: 2013 fWAR 2.9 Miley: 2013 fWAR 1.9
Of course the Red Sox essentially DFA'd Doubront this year - if your scouts really liked Miley for some reason, why not trade Doubront straight up for Miley at beginning of last year (2014) (Doubront was younger and cheaper)?
Look - if you're going to adopt a value based approach in baseball ops (and I'm all for it), you have to be cold and flexible enough to identify your own players that are at a peak and move them.
You can't just hope to get lucky with 2013 Victorinos (because they turn into 2014 Victorino or 2014 Sizemores)
Meanwhile, Friedman is running circles around the Red Sox FO.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2014 2:52:14 GMT -5
he's only been worth 4.6WAR over the last three years. In 2012 3.3 WAR, 2013 1.3 and .8 last year. Those numbers don't become less ridiculous just by citing them more often. Honestly I have no idea why they're so low (well except for the fact that addition doesn't seem to be your main strength), but FanGraph's RA9-WAR has Miley at 8.3 over the past 3 years (4.1, 3.0, 1.2). B-Ref has 3.5 + 1.3 + 0.8 = 5.6 (and no I can't tell you why ESPN docked 0.2 WAR off his 2012 campaign) but that just doesn't pass the smell test for me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 11, 2014 3:22:32 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 11m11 minutes ago Wade Miley 2.3 WAR projection ranks directly ahead of McCarthy McHugh Ventura Cole Verlander Fister Gonzalez Bailey Pineda Ross Santana
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 3:28:45 GMT -5
bWAR puts more weight into on field results whereas fangraphs fWAR puts more weight into peripherals and take into account how lucky/unlucky they got (between their defense and park factors).
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2014 3:38:35 GMT -5
bWAR puts more weight into on field results whereas fangraphs fWAR puts more weight into peripherals and take into account how lucky/unlucky they got (between their defense and park factors). Yeah and FG RA9-WAR puts all the weight on field results, so... something else is up with bWAR here.
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Post by cba82 on Dec 11, 2014 3:51:57 GMT -5
So, do we have anything left from the trade with the Dodgers (other than Wade Miley + financial relief)?
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Post by bjb406 on Dec 11, 2014 4:10:18 GMT -5
I officially give up Ben Cherington. Rubby is better than Miley right now.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 4:23:33 GMT -5
I officially give up Ben Cherington. Rubby is better than Miley right now. Nope
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 11, 2014 4:50:39 GMT -5
He gave up 18 HR at home, and 5 on the road, despite pitching 20 more innings. Does that strike you as strange in any way? Since you're enamoured of ERA, let's use that. It was 3.17 when not in Arizona. I know all the wet-eyes find it hard to understand, but it really is different in Tuscon, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Reno, Colorado Springs, Phoenix... Oh, and Rubby's ERA was over 7 in September. I don't think he was quite ready for the playoffs. Rubby wore down at the end of the year, not a shock for a guy coming off tommy john surgery that was on a pitch and inning limit last year. His numbers were very impressive before his late season slump. I just really liked Rubby, thought he had a ceiling of a #3 starter, time will tell. As for Webster, sure I love his stuff, but he was just all over the place. He didn't put together strings of good starts like Rubby did. I understand why they made the trade, I just don't like it. If you trade Ranaudo and Webster I would like the trade more. Also what is the player to be named? It better not be a good prospect, heck we should be getting a prospect back! Rubby didn't wear down last year. He had one good month and was pretty much terrible to mediocre the rest of the season...in only 100 innings. In fact if you look deeper at his stats, you could say he bounced back a bit in September rather than wore down. Here's a look at his month by month stats: Not exactly inspiring.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 5:21:18 GMT -5
Maybe there is a sweetener in there. Let's see. Maybe they flip Miley now for in a package for Cueto or something. Not ready to pass my verdict on this yet. Exactly what I was thinking. He or Kelly with Cespedes can probably get us Iwakuma or Cueto plus a bullpen arm or prospect.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 5:39:13 GMT -5
That is not even close to being true. Again, are the Red Sox trying to win games, or are they trying to develop marginal talent? They can't have it both ways. I don't think Ruby is a marginal talent. Has a high ceiling (#3 starter) and showed flashes last year that he can be a good pitcher. That's part of what a reliable 200 IP pitcher with 3 years of control costs in a trade. We need real major league pitchers more than 18 pitching prospects. We didn't even have room for all of them and they were probably moving to the bullpen because of it.
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Post by seanleary001 on Dec 11, 2014 6:31:28 GMT -5
So, do we have anything left from the trade with the Dodgers (other than Wade Miley + financial relief)? Brock Holt sort of
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 6:31:56 GMT -5
I wouldn't of traded dlr for Miley alone. Absolutely. Terrible, logically indefensible trade. The last thing this team needs is a #4 starter (admittedly a good one), when we have an entire PawSox rotation full of guys who have solid chances to be as good or better, as soon as mid-season. Since RDLR was the presumptive 5th starter, they still need to acquire two more pitchers. Once they do that, Miley is the 5th starter, so they've just traded a probable elite setup guy / potential closer and a lottery-ticket potential top starter in Webster to get a guy whom, if all goes according to hopes and plans, will lose his job to Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, or Johnson by August 1. They have 38 guys on the roster, so they can sign a catcher and a reliever, and a pitcher (edit: not that I like anyone with McCarthy gone), then trade Cespedes, Marrero, and Ranaudo, Hembree, or Wilson for another pitcher. (If Ranaudo is dealt, Escobar moves into the PawSox rotation.) larrycook likes to say that Cherington overvalues his prospects, but the opposite is true. He's completely risk-aversive about them. Peavy was only obtained because they didn't trust Workman. Now they've obtained Miley's workhorse innings because they didn't trust RDLR, Wright, and the aforementioned quartet to fill that job at least as well -- something I would have gambled on unhesitatingly. The silver lining is that I can ignore the Red Sox for the rest of the year and go and finish writing my damn book.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 6:41:06 GMT -5
Like I've been saying, you can't just ignore his best season. It happened, and it should inform his projections. His career marks: 3.79 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA. All are above-average, even when adjusted for league and park. He gets an above-average number of ground balls (career 48.6% GB, up to 51.1% and 52% in the last two years) and while he's not a huge strikeout guy, he's always put up a solid K/BB (career 2.55). His Steamer projection is for a 3.73 FIP and 2.3 WAR. Not great, not terrible. The FIP projection is 3.82 after adjusting for park and the weakness of the NL West.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 7:00:27 GMT -5
The AL East - NL West thing is really overblown here. Team wOBA from 2014: Col - .337LAD - .327Tor - .325 Bal - .323 SF - .308NYY - .305 TB - .305 SD - .283Other than the Padres there doesn't seem to be much difference in terms of the division opposition Miley faced/will face. You can't do it that way. The NL West collectively played .459 ball after correctly adjusting for SoS, while the AL East played .525. All of the NL West wOBAs were put up against weak NL West pitching staffs, whose FIP and ERA were in turn lowered by facing weak NL West hitters ... it needs to be adjusted recursively. The SoS difference for RA between Boston and Arizona was 28.6 (half of the total difference in run differential, which is all you can really know without much more detailed analysis). Miley's share of that is exactly 4 runs, or 0.18 of ERA or FIP, or 0.45 WAR. And that's invisible to all current metrics. (That's an approximation assuming Miley faced the same caliber of opponents as his team in general did.)
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 7:04:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't of traded dlr for Miley alone. Absolutely. Terrible, logically indefensible trade. The last thing this team needs is a #4 starter, when we have an entire PawSox rotation full of guys who have solid chances to be as good or better, as soon as mid-season. Since RDLR was the presumptive 5th starter, they still need to acquire two more pitchers. Once they do that, Miley is the 5th starter, so they've just traded a probable elite setup guy / potential closer and a lottery-ticket potential top starter in Webster to get a guy whom, if all goes according to hopes and plans, will lose his job to Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, or Johnson by August 1. They have 38 guys on the roster, so they can sign a catcher and a reliever, and a pitcher (McCarthy?), then trade Cespedes, Marrero, and Ranaudo, Hembree, or Wilson for another pitcher. (If Ranaudo is dealt, Escobar moves into the PawSox rotation.) larrycook likes to say that Cherington overvalues his prospects, but the opposite is true. He's completely risk-aversive about them. Peavy was only obtained because they didn't trust Workman. Now they've obtained Miley's workhorse innings because they didn't trust RDLR, Wright, and the aforementioned quartet to fill that job at least as well -- something I would have gambled on unhesitatingly. The silver lining is that I can ignore the Red Sox for the rest of the year and go and finish writing my damn book. I think you're underrating Miley. Go look at the numbers again. If the third prospect is Devers or Margot, I'll go ballistic though. Hopefully the trade is only held up because of the Rule 5.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 7:06:15 GMT -5
Do people really just not grok how bad Webster and RDLR have been when given chances at the MLB level? Rubby fell apart after he passed his previous high for IP. Before that, he was pitching at a #2 / #3 starter level. But that's missing the point of why this trade is bad. It's bad because it's acquiring an asset that we already collectively had. I don't think Miley is a significant upgrade over starting the season with RDLR and then moving him to the pen and replacing him with either Wright or the best Pawtucket starter. Miley's a baby blanket for a nervous organization. If this trade is an overreaction to anything, it's to JBJ's failure last year. But if we'd had four or five CF prospects of his caliber, we would have been fine there.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 7:13:27 GMT -5
Do people really just not grok how bad Webster and RDLR have been when given chances at the MLB level? Rubby fell apart after he passed his previous high for IP. Before that, he was pitching at a #2 / #3 starter level. But that's missing the point of why this trade is bad. It's bad because it's acquiring an asset that we already collectively had. I don't think Miley is a significant upgrade over starting the season with RDLR and then moving him to the pen and replacing him with either Wright or the best Pawtucket starter. Miley's a baby blanket for a nervous organization. If this trade is an overreaction to anything, it's to JBJ's failure last year. But if we'd had four or five CF prospects of his caliber, we would have been fine there. What is the opportunity cost of figuring out what we have? We didn't get very good starting pitching last year overall from the combination of Workman/Ranaudo/Webster/De La Rosa while we were figuring out what we had. Miley adds certainty to a rotation that has zero at the moment.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 11, 2014 7:18:18 GMT -5
Sorry, haven't read all pages, but has anyone said Miley:Lester::Offerman:MoVaugn? Minus the clumsy Duqette comment about OBP.
As a first step, I like the Miley trade; the fun dreaming about the ceiling of Webster (esp in SP 13!) or Rubby (whom I saw in AAA at a low point) was always tempered for me by the low probability of their reaching that ceiling.
Hope some other good moves fall into place, but we could play bridesmaid with several SP; motto might have to be "Sox in 16!"
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 11, 2014 7:21:16 GMT -5
I think I'm with Jimed on this one. It's a classic trade of lottery tickets for relative certainty (given that nothing is absolutely certain). I don't feel good or bad about it -- it is what it is.
I can understand the organization's need for relative certainty somewhere, given that they will have two lottery tickets on the field in Castillo and Bogaerts (sorry, after last season a lot of this site's certainty about Xander has worn away.) And some defensive uncertainty with Hanley.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 7:24:31 GMT -5
Here's another consideration: Doubront: 2013 fWAR 2.9 Miley: 2013 fWAR 1.9 Of course the Red Sox essentially DFA'd Doubront this year - if your scouts really liked Miley for some reason, why not trade Doubront straight up for Miley at beginning of last year (2014) (Doubront was younger and cheaper)? Look - if you're going to adopt a value based approach in baseball ops (and I'm all for it), you have to be cold and flexible enough to identify your own players that are at a peak and move them. You can't just hope to get lucky with 2013 Victorinos (because they turn into 2014 Victorino or 2014 Sizemores) Meanwhile, Friedman is running circles around the Red Sox FO. This is some class A trolling. Why didn't we trade Felix Doubront for Anthony Rizzo? Doubront had more 2013 fWAR! Why can't the front office predict the future? This is outrageous!
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