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Report: Red Sox have agreement for Wade Miley
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Post by awall on Dec 11, 2014 7:28:27 GMT -5
I don't think it's a terrible trade, no one we gave up is a sure thing to #1 or #2, but reading stuff like this "Miley is not a hard thrower -- his fastball sits at 91 miles per hour -- and threw his slider last season much more (25.8 percent) than he did in his first two seasons in the rotation. His effectiveness is a product of his control" makes me feel like we just traded two guys for Brian Johnson. Yes, I know he hasn't proved anything yet, but isn't Miley pretty much what Johnson is projected to be?
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 7:30:13 GMT -5
he's only been worth 4.6WAR over the last three years. In 2012 3.3 WAR, 2013 1.3 and .8 last year. Those numbers don't become less ridiculous just by citing them more often. Honestly I have no idea why they're so low (well except for the fact that addition doesn't seem to be your main strength), but FanGraph's RA9-WAR has Miley at 8.3 over the past 3 years (4.1, 3.0, 1.2). B-Ref has 3.5 + 1.3 + 0.8 = 5.6 (and no I can't tell you why ESPN docked 0.2 WAR off his 2012 campaign) but that just doesn't pass the smell test for me. B-R adjusts for defense, and by DRS, Arizona had an elite defense in 2013 and a very good one in 2014. That means that they deduct some of Miley's value because they think replacement level for an ARI pitcher is higher than league-wide replacement level because of the aforementioned defense. They also use a different opponent adjustment that adjusts based on the specific opponents a pitcher faced, and he may have faced teams that had weak offenses over those years.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 7:36:00 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 7:42:25 GMT -5
larrycook likes to say that Cherington overvalues his prospects, but the opposite is true. He's completely risk-aversive about them. Peavy was only obtained because they didn't trust Workman. Now they've obtained Miley's workhorse innings because they didn't trust RDLR, Wright, and the aforementioned quartet to fill that job at least as well -- something I would have gambled on unhesitatingly. I mean, in retrospect, doesn't Cherington look right? Peavy was good enough down the stretch and into the playoffs, while Workman became a useful bullpen arm while seemingly flaming out as a starter. Oh yeah, and they won the goddamn World Series that year. You have this tendency to dream on upside, which is fine. But a front office can't do that, especially when ownership has invested so much money (including likely paying the luxury tax) and is intent on contending right away. As jimed alluded to above, you can't just compare an acquisition to the best of Boston's pitching prospects. Someone is going to have to actually throw those innings, and games in April count in the standings, too. And it's hard to argue that Miley's median projection isn't better than those of RDLR, Webster, Ranaudo, and (yes) Wright (the others could use more AAA reps and won't be ready until midseason at the earliest).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 7:59:41 GMT -5
I think you're underrating Miley. Go look at the numbers again. I did, and I don't think I am. His career xFIP- is 98, and when you adjust for the division, it's 100 or a little higher, and 100 is the border between 4th and 3rd starter. And there's an alarming worsening trend in his hardness of contact (BABIP and HR/FB), which is real stuff that xFIP doesn't measure. However, if that's a familiarity effect, seeing a new group of hitters will help him. OTOH, his splits by batting order position are below average, which means the aforementioned adjustment for quality of opposition is probably too small. He's good insurance against a lost Buchholz season, but if we have that, we're in trouble with or without this trade. I keep coming back to the probability that we had one league-average pitcher between RDLR, Wright and the projected PawSox rotation of Webster, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson. It was very high, I think (and remains high without Webster). And you wouldn't be churning them in and out of the rotation to see who was good; you'd start with RDLR, with good confidence in his being league-average for 100 IP, and you'd have half a season or more to see which of the five PawSox pitchers was the best. I liked the odds that one of those guys would be better than league average. Rookies have been known to do that. If X, Y, and Buchholz are pitching great, Kelly is good, and Miley is league-average, I think there's going to be great reluctance to give the best of the PawSox pitchers a rotation shot no matter how well he's pitching. They've essentially gone out of their way to block four of their top seven prospects.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 11, 2014 8:12:38 GMT -5
Do people really just not grok how bad Webster and RDLR have been when given chances at the MLB level? Rubby fell apart after he passed his previous high for IP. Before that, he was pitching at a #2 / #3 starter level.But that's missing the point of why this trade is bad. It's bad because it's acquiring an asset that we already collectively had. I don't think Miley is a significant upgrade over starting the season with RDLR and then moving him to the pen and replacing him with either Wright or the best Pawtucket starter. Miley's a baby blanket for a nervous organization. If this trade is an overreaction to anything, it's to JBJ's failure last year. But if we'd had four or five CF prospects of his caliber, we would have been fine there. I've never been as high as some on RDLR for next year (and beyond, for that matter) because that's not really what I saw. I saw a guy the hitters adjusted to really fast and then had nowhere to go when they did. This post would be better if I could remember the specific adjustment I saw, but it escapes me at the moment ... I remember first seeing it in the second time he pitched against the Blue Jays, I think. IIRC, the hitters laid off his change and just zeroed in on his fastball. Well, whatever it was, I thought at the time, "this guy's a reliever." That said, I'm a lot higher on Wright then most, so my secret hope was that he was going to grab the 5th spot. Still, though, in the end I like this trade because I've lost confidence in De La Rosa and Webster and think they've already been passed by the next wave of Owens, Rodriquez, and Johnson and probably by Barnes, as well. I'd put them about equal or even a touch below Ranaudo. I'd lay a bet right now that Miley ends up with better career WAR than either of the guys he's traded for, and I'd even likely take a bet that he'll top both combined. This is an inexact science, so maybe RDLR or Webster surprise me, but as of now, I'll go down as good with this trade ... but the D'Backs are crazy if they think they're getting Guerra, Rijo, or Espinoza in addition.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Dec 11, 2014 8:18:52 GMT -5
This is a fair trade for both sides (sure thing in exchange for 2 upside SPs), even if Miley isn't the most exciting pitcher on the planet.
Like FTH said, trading two guys you HOPE will be at least as good as Miley for Miley makes a lot of sense. Sure, Ruby has the upside to be better, but there's always a risk factor with any fair deal.
(Forget about Webster, though. That guy's a throw-in as far as I'm concerned.)
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Dec 11, 2014 8:25:10 GMT -5
I think you're underrating Miley. Go look at the numbers again. I did, and I don't think I am. His career xFIP- is 98, and when you adjust for the division, it's 100 or a little higher, and 100 is the border between 4th and 3rd starter. And there's an alarming worsening trend in his hardness of contact (BABIP and HR/FB), which is real stuff that xFIP doesn't measure. However, if that's a familiarity effect, seeing a new group of hitters will help him. OTOH, his splits by batting order position are below average, which means the aforementioned adjustment for quality of opposition is probably too small. He's good insurance against a lost Buchholz season, but if we have that, we're in trouble with or without this trade. I keep coming back to the probability that we had one league-average pitcher between RDLR, Wright and the projected PawSox rotation of Webster, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson. It was very high, I think (and remains high without Webster). And you wouldn't be churning them in and out of the rotation to see who was good; you'd start with RDLR, with good confidence in his being league-average for 100 IP, and you'd have half a season or more to see which of the five PawSox pitchers was the best. I liked the odds that one of those guys would be better than league average. Rookies have been known to do that. If X, Y, and Buchholz are pitching great, Kelly is good, and Miley is league-average, I think there's going to be great reluctance to give the best of the PawSox pitchers a rotation shot no matter how well he's pitching. They've essentially gone out of their way to block four of their top seven prospects. The odds aren't good that Buchholtz pitches great, let alone for an entire season. The rotation will need minor-league help at some point and there will be opportunities for Owens, Rodriguez, etc. to shine and, if they're really that good, the FO will make space.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 8:27:09 GMT -5
I keep coming back to the probability that we had one league-average pitcher between RDLR, Wright and the projected PawSox rotation of Webster, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson. It was very high, I think (and remains high without Webster). And you wouldn't be churning them in and out of the rotation to see who was good; you'd start with RDLR, with good confidence in his being league-average for 100 IP, and you'd have half a season or more to see which of the five PawSox pitchers was the best. I liked the odds that one of those guys would be better than league average. Rookies have been known to do that. If X, Y, and Buchholz are pitching great, Kelly is good, and Miley is league-average, I think there's going to be great reluctance to give the best of the PawSox pitchers a rotation shot no matter how well he's pitching. They've essentially gone out of their way to block four of their top seven prospects. If we have five healthy, above-average starters next year, I'd be far more concerned about riding them all the way to the World Series than breaking in one of our projected mid-rotation starter prospects, all of whom have multiple options left.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 8:35:17 GMT -5
I mean, in retrospect, doesn't Cherington look right? Peavy was good enough down the stretch and into the playoffs, while Workman became a useful bullpen arm while seemingly flaming out as a starter. Oh yeah, and they won the goddamn World Series that year. Peavy started 10 games down the stretch and gave up 29 ER. How many ER did Workman give up in his first 10 starts in 2013? 29. In about 5 less IP, granted, but that's negligible. (He also gave up 5 UER, but I checked the game logs and they were egregiously unearned.) At the time of the trade I pointed out how terrible Workman would have to be over 10 starts in order to be a win worse than Peavy. Peavy had one good post-season game but two stinkers, and for the most part he simply bumped Doubront out of the rotation, and Doubront outpitched him coming in from the pen (giving us all false hope for 2014). Yeah, they could have used an extra bullpen arm at the deadline if Workman had stayed in the rotation. I don't think they quite needed to trade Iglesias, Montas, and Rondon to get that guy.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 11, 2014 8:35:54 GMT -5
First, Espinoza signed in July and isn't even eligible to be traded until next July. PTBNL must be decided before then. Second, they busted their IL bonus to sign him, and incurr substantial future penalties to do so -- so it makes no sense to trade him now. Guerra and to a lesser extent are too valuable lottery tickets. Sort of like "the Dbacks want a Masserati and the Sox are offering a Yugo." I'm guessing there's a nice Toyota Carolla out there for them to agree upon.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 8:49:53 GMT -5
tinyurl.com/MileyCompsAre people undervaluing a 200 inning league average pitcher with 3 years of control? I'd easily slot that in as a reliable #3. He's a good deal better than Jake Peavy or Ryan Dempster.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 8:50:40 GMT -5
I keep coming back to the probability that we had one league-average pitcher between RDLR, Wright and the projected PawSox rotation of Webster, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson. It was very high, I think (and remains high without Webster). And you wouldn't be churning them in and out of the rotation to see who was good; you'd start with RDLR, with good confidence in his being league-average for 100 IP, and you'd have half a season or more to see which of the five PawSox pitchers was the best. I liked the odds that one of those guys would be better than league average. Rookies have been known to do that. If X, Y, and Buchholz are pitching great, Kelly is good, and Miley is league-average, I think there's going to be great reluctance to give the best of the PawSox pitchers a rotation shot no matter how well he's pitching. They've essentially gone out of their way to block four of their top seven prospects. If we have five healthy, above-average starters next year, I'd be far more concerned about riding them all the way to the World Series than breaking in one of our projected mid-rotation starter prospects, all of whom have multiple options left. My concern is about sticking with an average guy while someone is utterly dominating AAA and simply projects to be better. We've seen that happen, and it's frustrating. It's leaving probable wins on the table, because it's really hard to bump a guy to the pen who's pitching OK. See, I think you're either contradicting yourself or agreeing with me. It sometimes makes sense to make a trade that you lose, WAR-wise, if the players you're trading away are simply never going to play for you. For instance, Cespedes, Marrero, Coyle, and Ranaudo for a year of Cueto is a silly overpay in terms of projected WAR under team control, but in reality the projected WAR of those four guys for the Sox as currently constituted is 0. I agree with you, we may well win this trade WAR-wise, but it strikes me as strategically backwards. If Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson have passed RDLR and Webster, I like the odds of one or two of them passing Miley as well. We should essentially be boiling down excess average talent to yield exceptional talent. Here we acquired more average talent and traded away a quite likely exceptional bullpen arm in RDLR (very valuable in the post-season, as we've seen). Edit: I would, BTW, consider this a solid, risk-reducing move if it were Webster and Ranaudo -- as someone else has already opined. I really want to keep assets who have good chances of being exceptionally good. Simply put, I think it fairly likely that RDLR would be more valuable in next year's post-season, as a lights-out 8th inning guy, than Miley would be as quite possibly our 5th starter.
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Post by sportnik on Dec 11, 2014 8:57:25 GMT -5
Interesting, I've seen Miley described as a "soft thrower", but Pitch FX shows his average fastball was 91.3 last year. This compares to Lester at 91.5. Miley - www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=8779&position=PLester - www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=PBen seems to love pitchers that give up very few walks. Miley has always good control (BB/9 = 2.76 for his career) & showed a pick uptick in K/9 last year (8.1). If this wasn't a fluke, Miley looks like a pretty good pickup. Certainly seems like a better option that giving $150M to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 9:01:40 GMT -5
If we have five healthy, above-average starters next year, I'd be far more concerned about riding them all the way to the World Series than breaking in one of our projected mid-rotation starter prospects, all of whom have multiple options left. My concern is about sticking with an average guy while someone is utterly dominating AAA and simply projects to be better. We've seen that happen, and it's frustrating. It's leaving probable wins on the table, because it's really hard to bump a guy to the pen who's pitching OK. I've complained about that extensively last year when we had Nava in AAA so we could hold Sizemore and Carp. But for pitchers, I see plenty of room for them. There are injuries. And we can easily trade Kelly or Miley if room is needed. Or we can now use one of them with Cespedes to upgrade to just about any rental that may be available to get a top 2 guy. I also don't think that any of Owens, Johnson or Rodriguez are going to be so dominant that we should start their service time clocks early. Barnes and Wright are the most likely candidates.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 11, 2014 9:05:23 GMT -5
Do people really just not grok how bad Webster and RDLR have been when given chances at the MLB level? Rubby fell apart after he passed his previous high for IP. Before that, he was pitching at a #2 / #3 starter level. But that's missing the point of why this trade is bad. It's bad because it's acquiring an asset that we already collectively had. I don't think Miley is a significant upgrade over starting the season with RDLR and then moving him to the pen and replacing him with either Wright or the best Pawtucket starter. Miley's a baby blanket for a nervous organization. If this trade is an overreaction to anything, it's to JBJ's failure last year. But if we'd had four or five CF prospects of his caliber, we would have been fine there. Rather than trying to sort through five pitching prospects to try to find the one who's going to grow up to be Wade Miley, potentially tanking the '15 season in the process, why not just trade a couple of them for Wade Miley?
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 9:16:32 GMT -5
I mean, in retrospect, doesn't Cherington look right? Peavy was good enough down the stretch and into the playoffs, while Workman became a useful bullpen arm while seemingly flaming out as a starter. Oh yeah, and they won the goddamn World Series that year. Peavy started 10 games down the stretch and gave up 29 ER. How many ER did Workman give up in his first 10 starts in 2013? 29. In about 5 less IP, granted, but that's negligible. (He also gave up 5 UER, but I checked the game logs and they were egregiously unearned.) At the time of the trade I pointed out how terrible Workman would have to be over 10 starts in order to be a win worse than Peavy. Peavy had one good post-season game but two stinkers, and for the most part he simply bumped Doubront out of the rotation, and Doubront outpitched him coming in from the pen (giving us all false hope for 2014). Yeah, they could have used an extra bullpen arm at the deadline if Workman had stayed in the rotation. I don't think they quite needed to trade Iglesias, Montas, and Rondon to get that guy. So, yeah, Workman looks like he would have been about a little less than a win worse than Peavy as a starter, so a pretty substantial upgrade for a half season.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 11, 2014 9:19:34 GMT -5
Fun fact: In 2012, Wade Miley and Allen Webster had the same FIP (excluding some odd 9 innings after the trade). Of course, there's a small difference of Miley doing in the majors while Webster done it at AA.
Whenever you trade 2 relievers for a fine starter, you can't really complain.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 11, 2014 9:29:00 GMT -5
Fun fact: In 2012, Wade Miley and Allen Webster had the same FIP (excluding some odd 9 innings after the trade). Of course, there's a small difference of Miley doing in the majors while Webster done it at AA. Whenever you trade 2 relievers for a fine starter, you can't really complain. Solid trade UNLESS we have to throw in someone like Rijo, etc. You may disagree, but I would be fine with 5 Wade Miley's. They all give me slightly above average pitching and 200 innings.....I'd be a happy guy.
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Post by nexus on Dec 11, 2014 9:32:44 GMT -5
I mean, in retrospect, doesn't Cherington look right? Peavy was good enough down the stretch and into the playoffs, while Workman became a useful bullpen arm while seemingly flaming out as a starter. Oh yeah, and they won the goddamn World Series that year. Peavy started 10 games down the stretch and gave up 29 ER. How many ER did Workman give up in his first 10 starts in 2013? 29. In about 5 less IP, granted, but that's negligible. (He also gave up 5 UER, but I checked the game logs and they were egregiously unearned.) At the time of the trade I pointed out how terrible Workman would have to be over 10 starts in order to be a win worse than Peavy. Peavy had one good post-season game but two stinkers, and for the most part he simply bumped Doubront out of the rotation, and Doubront outpitched him coming in from the pen (giving us all false hope for 2014).Yeah, they could have used an extra bullpen arm at the deadline if Workman had stayed in the rotation. I don't think they quite needed to trade Iglesias, Montas, and Rondon to get that guy. See, this is where I think you have been exposed. Even if we believed Doubront were to finally commit to an offseason fitness program, I don't think many of us had as rosy of a 2014 projection as you did. I admire your passion for data trying to prove otherwise, but flashing small samples of pitching brilliance are exactly that: small samples. Besides, Peavy didn't bump Doubront. Doubront was in the pen during the 2013 playoff run because he was gassed. There was almost no evidence to suggest Doubront would finally emerge as this 200+ inning sub 3.50 FIP horse coming into 2014. But you, and only you, had this idea where he could be that guy he was for a two month stretch in 2013 over an entire season and beyond. I applaud your optimism and all, but I think we would all be pleased if any of the almost MLB-ready kids turn into Wade Miley. And we should celebrate if even one turns out to be better, but none with the exception of Rodriguez has a realistic chance.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 11, 2014 9:33:07 GMT -5
I almost tacked "or maaaaaybe Wendell Rijo" on the end of that list I posted last night, but thought better of it thinking he'd be too much. I wouldn't be stunned, but I'd look on the trade far less favorably.
I would be fine with them meeting in the middle with someone of Dubon's ilk, perhaps.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:41:48 GMT -5
I've learned to take these tweets/blogs with a grain of salt but I would be shocked if Ben gave up any of those three upside prospects in addition to Rubby and Webster. I comfortable giving the two pitchers but Guerra who's been getting great reviews across the scouting community, Espinoza who they just blew there next two seasons of International budgets on or Rijo (I guess the more palatable option of the three) who looks like he could develop into something close to a league average 2nd baseman crosses my "too much" line. I agree he needs to hold his ground even if it means walking away. Arizona will come to there senses.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 11, 2014 9:44:40 GMT -5
I think this was a fair deal for both teams. ... though I liked Rubby de la Rosa. On the other hand, Miley sounds delightful. Wouldn't mind having them both. Only 1 year of control difference. De La Rosa started 30 games last season; it's more a question of how deep he will go next season, and Miley is a fair bet for 200. Miley hasn't come close to matching his rookie season numbers; K's are up but so are HRs & walks have doubled. Webster needs innings in the majors, so this is good for him.
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Post by suttree on Dec 11, 2014 9:46:27 GMT -5
It's not a great trade, but I can live with it. Webster was one more bad season shy of having no trade value. This is really a swap of RDLR for Miley. I will take some consistency over a little more upside at this point.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 9:51:32 GMT -5
I've learned to take these tweets/blogs with a grain of salt but I would be shocked if Ben gave up any of those three upside prospects in addition to Rubby and Webster. I comfortable giving the two pitchers but Guerra who's been getting great reviews across the scouting community, Espinoza who they just blew there next two seasons of International budgets on or Rijo (I guess the more palatable option of the three) who looks like he could develop into something close to a league average 2nd baseman crosses my "too much" line. I agree he needs to hold his ground even if it means walking away. Arizona will come to there senses. I normally wouldn't post a comment like that, but the guy who wrote it actually runs the SBN D-Backs blog. I wouldn't expect it to be 100% accurate, but wouldn't be surprised if the general idea and some of the names are the holdup.
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