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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 11:26:18 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 25, 2015 15:31:54 GMT -5
I'm a total sucker for spring training optimism. I read that and think, "That totally makes sense. JBJ could be quality MLB outfielder this year if needed!" I swear, by the end of spring training I'm gonna have to talk myself out of thinking the Sox could break the Mariners' 2001 record ...
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 16:30:10 GMT -5
The key is keeping Mitchell Boggs if he's pitching with his 95-97 MPH sinker again. If he is, then someone has to be off the 25 man roster and someone has to be off the 40 man. I know that they have said that they want two lefties, but Ross has reverse splits and I am not sure they would want to keep Layne given how bad he is versus righties.
As far as trading Mujica or any other bullpen guy, I fail to see the value in trading any of the bullpen depth unless it makes the major league team better. I don't see how you can trade Mujica and accomplish that goal. Mujica may look expendable now, but they have three relievers, Ross, Ogando, and Breslow coming off of bad seasons, and a 40 year old closer. The object is not just to have the best seven guys in the pen, but to keep as much talent as you possibly can, which is why I think they will find a way to keep Boggs if the stuff has returned.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 25, 2015 19:58:06 GMT -5
The key is keeping Mitchell Boggs if he's pitching with his 95-97 MPH sinker again. If he is, then someone has to be off the 25 man roster and someone has to be off the 40 man. I know that they have said that they want two lefties, but Ross has reverse splits and I am not sure they would want to keep Layne given how bad he is versus righties. As far as trading Mujica or any other bullpen guy, I fail to see the value in trading any of the bullpen depth unless it makes the major league team better. I don't see how you can trade Mujica and accomplish that goal. Mujica may look expendable now, but they have three relievers, Ross, Ogando, and Breslow coming off of bad seasons, and a 40 year old closer. The object is not just to have the best seven guys in the pen, but to keep as much talent as you possibly can, which is why I think they will find a way to keep Boggs if the stuff has returned. This is the classic organizational depth versus quality of MLB roster dilemma, but I think that in his case it's self-correcting. First, the reason why they say they want two lefties is that a second lefty is simply going to be more valuable than a fifth righty set-up guy. Having an in-game choice between, say Mujica (bumped down the pecking order) and Varvaro, versus one of those guys and a LHR -- the latter is sometimes going to give you a significantly better matchup. There are lots of LHB and switch-hitters who struggle against LHP; the difference in their platoon splits more than compensates for the neutral or mild reverse split of the LHR (if that's what he has). So, we have Tazawa, Mujica, Ogando, Boggs, and Varvaro without options, plus Workman, Hembree, Spruill, and Wright with, and later in the year, possibly a Barnes conversion, plus Ramirez and Hinojosa selections. There is a weird, unlikely scenario where the five guys you can't option look great and the group that's starting in AAA looks shaky. That's the only scenario where you might hesitate to trade Mujica in order to both keep Boggs and fit in Ross, Layne, or Eveland. What's far likelier is one of two things: either one of those five is hurt or looks bad, solving the surplus, or the AAA group looks plenty good enough to make trading Mujica entirely moot when it comes to having good MLB relievers. Short version: if Mujica gets bumped to a mop-up role, he is more valuable to other teams than to the Sox, and less valuable to the Sox than a second LHR. If there are subsequent injuries, the difference between Mujica and the best of Workman et al, in low leverage innings, is very unlikely to be large enough to offset that. And any scenario where there is so much doubt about those five that it seems likely that Mujica will pitch in high-leverage means you no longer have the five guys for four spots logjam.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 21:48:10 GMT -5
Ogando I am pretty sure has options.
As for Mujica the arbitrage which you describe isn't self-correcting because baseball isn't a completely liquid market. It maybe that Mujica is more valuable to other teams than to the Red Sox but good luck getting someone to pay you for that difference.
They aren't going to trade depth just because an arbitrage situation exists.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2015 23:16:08 GMT -5
Koji Taz Mujica Varvaro Breslow (L) Ross (L) Ogando Varvaro Boggs
If you stash Ogando in Providence put Ogando on the DL (see eric below), that still leaves 8 pitchers for 7 slots and our two best swingmen candidates, Workman and Wright also at AAA. Mujica makes the most sense as a trade candidate because he has 8th inning value, has no options, is a duplicate role on the Sox, is fairly expensive relative to the other tradeable candidates ($4.25m) and most importantly is a free agent at the end of the year who isn't going to bring back a draft pick.
The Dodgers just lost their closer for half a season and the Brewers were thinking about Papelbon. I'm sure there are several other good fits as well and if everyone on the Sox stays healthy (which is the basis here), it doesn't mean everyone in baseball will remain healthy this spring.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 25, 2015 23:29:51 GMT -5
Ogando I am pretty sure has options. Nope. He was an OF in the A's system in 2003 and '04 (and was their #20 prospect, with Vlad Guerrero comps), appeared to have missed '05, and was taken in that year's Rule 5 draft by the Rangers. They converted him to the mound, and they added him to the 40-man at the end of '06 after he fanned 48 and walked 4 in 34.2 IP while posting an 0.52 ERA in the DSL. (And then they sent him back to the DSL -- illustrating the point that some of us were making in the Rule 5 thread, that the reason why so few good players are available is that most teams have room to protect anyone who might remotely be taken.) He was optioned in '07, apparently hurt in '08, optioned in '09 and '10 (when he was recalled in June). He never made more than the Ranger's BA depth chart (in '07 and '08). Did I say that they would? They would trade apparent depth because a) it would improve the MLB team, and b) the difference between Mujica pitching mop-up versus Workman (or one of half a dozen alternatives) has almost no actual value. If they can get something for him, that's gravy. It's likely that they can get some of his salary paid for, and that would be a gain.
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 26, 2015 5:24:03 GMT -5
Was just watching a bunch of highlights as I always do when impatiently awaiting ST games to start. Of course Mookie could use work w/ routes and reaction time, but the number of highlight reel plays he had in 1/3 of the season is amazing, this being my favorite.That impatience also leads me to browsing fangraphs/BR stats of Red Sox players. I found it astounding that (among players w/ >200 PA's) Mookie ranked: - Contact%: 88.3% (20th)
- O-Swing% (% of pitches swung at outside zone): 20.4% (3rd)
- SwStr% (swing & misses/total pitches): 4.2% (11th)
Here's what I really find fascinating. Mookie's 49.7% zone% (% of pitches in the strike zone) ranked as 9th lowest in baseball among the same guidelines. Additionally, his 36.5% swing% is 2nd lowest in the MLB behind only Matt Carpenter. Yet Mookie still managed a 21/31 BB/K. What that tells me is pitchers consistently attacked the zone, and he willingly took pitches to build the count, yet Betts still managed an excellent K% (14.6 vs. 20.4% 2014 league average) even w/ the stats given. It also shows just how damn good he was at putting the bat on the ball. Mookie's approach is scary good, and only days separate us seeing it live in spring training.
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Post by jmei on Feb 26, 2015 7:39:32 GMT -5
I think it's presumptive to assume that Boggs returns to 2012 form and wins a spot coming out of Spring Training. I see him as much more of a flyer than a sure thing and I certainly wouldn't pencil him in as anything close to a lock. I would also put Ogando and Breslow in the less-than-sure-thing category.
Between that and the ever-present specter of injuries, I'm not too worried about how the bullpen shakes out and in no hurry to trade Mujica or anyone else. Considering his salary and uneven 2014, I don't think you're going to get anything of value for Mujica anyways (besides salary relief, which does not appear to be a priority), and he's not blocking an obviously superior pitcher, so I don't see much point to moving him.
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Post by jmei on Feb 26, 2015 7:41:43 GMT -5
Koji Taz Mujica Varvaro Breslow (L) Ross (L) Ogando Varvaro Boggs If you stash Ogando in Providence put Ogando on the DL (see eric below), that still leaves 8 pitchers for 7 slots and our two best swingmen candidates, Workman and Wright also at AAA. Mujica makes the most sense as a trade candidate because he has 8th inning value, has no options, is a duplicate role on the Sox, is fairly expensive relative to the other tradeable candidates ($4.25m) and most importantly is a free agent at the end of the year who isn't going to bring back a draft pick. The Dodgers just lost their closer for half a season and the Brewers were thinking about Papelbon. I'm sure there are several other good fits as well and if everyone on the Sox stays healthy (which is the basis here), it doesn't mean everyone in baseball will remain healthy this spring. FYI you have Varvaro listed twice here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 9:13:44 GMT -5
That's in case we trade him for Pat Venditte.
Then if we DL Ordono we have 7 pitchers for 7 slots and our best swingmen are in AAA. Mujica is still odds on to be traded.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 9:51:50 GMT -5
@jmastrodonato's hiring announcement looks great on page 3 of today's @bostonherald
Good hire by the Herald.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Feb 26, 2015 10:03:22 GMT -5
Was just watching a bunch of highlights as I always do when impatiently awaiting ST games to start. Of course Mookie could use work w/ routes and reaction time, but the number of highlight reel plays he had in 1/3 of the season is amazing, this being my favorite.Everything about that catch was spectacular, the fact that it was Ellsbury and the Yankees getting robbed, the situation/time of game (leadoff batter of the 8th inning in a one run lead), and of course the play itself. Thanks for posting that, from all the other impatient people here.
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Post by jmei on Feb 26, 2015 10:48:36 GMT -5
Then if we DL Ordono we have 7 pitchers for 7 slots and our best swingmen are in AAA. Mujica is still odds on to be traded. I guess I don't see it as much of a problem if Workman and Wright start the season in Pawtucket. Wright is probably the sixth starter to start the year (it's either him or Barnes, and I think Barnes could use additional time in AAA), and while Workman probably deserves a shot at the majors, he's not good enough that I'm moving a solid reliever for likely nothing but salary relief just to open up a spot for him. I'll also note that for the same reason we want to trade Mujica (because he's not cheap and is more solid than dominating), other teams will be hesitant to acquire him. Is he much better than Joba Chamberlain, who just signed for $1m plus incentives, or Burke Badenhop, who signed for 1/$2.5m, or Casey Janssen, who signed for 1/$5m?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 11:02:19 GMT -5
Then if we DL Ordono we have 7 pitchers for 7 slots and our best swingmen are in AAA. Mujica is still odds on to be traded. I guess I don't see it as much of a problem if Workman and Wright start the season in Pawtucket. Wright is probably the sixth starter to start the year (it's either him or Barnes, and I think Barnes could use additional time in AAA), and while Workman probably deserves a shot at the majors, he's not good enough that I'm moving a solid reliever for likely nothing but salary relief just to open up a spot for him. I'll also note that for the same reason we want to trade Mujica (because he's not cheap and is more solid than dominating), other teams will be hesitant to acquire him. Is he much better than Joba Chamberlain, who just signed for $1m plus incentives, or Burke Badenhop, who signed for 1/$2.5m, or Casey Janssen, who signed for 1/$5m? I wonder how they'll keep Wright stretched out with that Pawtucket rotation so crowded if everyone is healthy. I agree he's probably the first spot starter in the majors, but they already have Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson and Escobar that will be in the AAA rotation.
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 26, 2015 11:13:44 GMT -5
I wonder how they'll keep Wright stretched out with that Pawtucket rotation so crowded if everyone is healthy; I agree he's probably the first spot starter in the majors, but they already have Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson and Escobar that will be in the AAA rotation. (a) Someone always gets hurt in ST. (b) The organization can piggyback innings in April until the starters get stretched out beyond five innings. (c) See (a).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 11:15:49 GMT -5
Actually, yes, he's better, he has closing experience and looked good the second half but that isn't the main thing, we have an entire spring training coming for pitchers to get hurt and those pitchers are no longer available to fill those slots. There are still some out there but the pickings are getting pretty slim. I also doubt if we will want to start Ogando on the DL if he's healthy. $4.25 won't be a deal buster for a team in need and it's actually not even an overpay.
For Victorino and Mujica their trade value will rise if everybody is healthy (and sharp) for the Sox as the spring progresses. Neither is likely to be going anywhere though until mid March.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 26, 2015 11:22:28 GMT -5
I guess I don't see it as much of a problem if Workman and Wright start the season in Pawtucket. Wright is probably the sixth starter to start the year (it's either him or Barnes, and I think Barnes could use additional time in AAA), and while Workman probably deserves a shot at the majors, he's not good enough that I'm moving a solid reliever for likely nothing but salary relief just to open up a spot for him. I'll also note that for the same reason we want to trade Mujica (because he's not cheap and is more solid than dominating), other teams will be hesitant to acquire him. Is he much better than Joba Chamberlain, who just signed for $1m plus incentives, or Burke Badenhop, who signed for 1/$2.5m, or Casey Janssen, who signed for 1/$5m? I wonder how they'll keep Wright stretched out with that Pawtucket rotation so crowded if everyone is healthy. I agree he's probably the first spot starter in the majors, but they already have Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson and Escobar that will be in the AAA rotation. The Wright/Escobar question is an interesting one ... Escobar only has one more option left, and it seems like time is running out on his being a starter. So, in some ways, it makes sense to start converting him to reliever this year. But, some still believe he has a chance to start, so it could be premature. It'd be unorthodox to do something like this at AAA level, I think, but I wonder if they'd consider some sort of piggy-back situation with the two of them. Maybe Wright starts and goes 3/4 innings, then Escobar comes in and goes as long as he can. Wright can jump from 3/4 innings to 6 easier than a conventional pitcher, so he'd still be stretched out enough to come up, and it sorta gives Escobar a hybrid relief/starter role to see which way his development takes him. For the MLB bullpen, it seems pretty clear-cut now: they built their bullpen with the seven obvious guys (including Mujica), built depth at AAA (Workman, Spruill, Layne, Hinojosa, starters), and brought in Boggs as a flier. The only complication comes if Boggs looks really good, like he's all the way back, and no one gets hurt. The likelihood of both of those things happening seems small enough that it's not worth worrying about right now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 11:26:51 GMT -5
Escobar should be interesting. He's got upside but this is his last option year. Are the Sox (and Escobar) better off training him for a role he's unlikely to have (22 year old major league starter) or doing what they did with Britton's final option year, putting him in the pen.
LOL, beaten to it.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 11:53:40 GMT -5
I don't think being the 2nd piggyback starter does much in the way of gaining relieving experience. It's pretty much the same as starting in that you're getting a clean inning and working on all of your pitches and are not tightened up enough for your stuff to improve in short stints and learning how to take advantage of that.
I also have no idea what it takes Wright to go from 2 innings to 6 and if there is any real difference for him. Knuckleball pitchers are from a different planet.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 26, 2015 12:15:29 GMT -5
I really hope JBJ learns how to hit ... it's so much fun watching him play defense.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 26, 2015 13:11:18 GMT -5
Tim Britton ?@timbritton 2 min. Farrell: It's likely that Victorino will swing left-handed in games.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 13:41:37 GMT -5
I really hope JBJ learns how to hit ... it's so much fun watching him play defense. Yeah, I enjoyed watching him so much. He and Holt's OF defense were the most exciting part of the season. I understand the politics of handing out gold gloves, but JBJ should have won it by a landslide over Adam Jones. He makes Jones look like Manny out there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2015 13:54:01 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to try to deal Mujica. He actually pitched pretty well for the Sox in the second half. The guy was coming off an injury toward the end of 2013 and that might explain why he pitched so poorly.
He was pretty good in 2013 until his injury with a fantastic K/BB ratio. If he pitches like that or like he did in the second half of 2014, then Mujica is the guy I'd like to see get the ball for the 8th inning, and if and when, Uehara needs a breather or gets hurt, he'd be a guy I'd trust to pitch the 9th.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2015 14:13:41 GMT -5
Re: Pawtucket logjam, I wouldn't be completely surprised if they sent, say, Rodriguez to Portland for a month if everyone is healthy. A little surprised, but not flabbergasted.
But yeah, that's a big assumption.
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