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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 24, 2015 13:31:57 GMT -5
What's the board's thoughts on Hector Olivera? Perhaps they felt they got out-bid for Moncada and reallocated their resources to ensure they locked up their plan B? He's probably above average hitting but just ok in the field. Given that he's 29 and has played 29 games in the last 3 years, I'm really glad to be staying away. That seems like a lot of years for a good deal of money. I don't know what the Dodgers are going to do with him this year since they have Kendrick and Uribe at 2B and 3B. Interesting, well, like I said, they probably had the financial resources already allocated for Moncada and lost out. I wouldn't doubt that they had already accounted for the cost of Moncada and decided to just reallocate the money towards Olivera to ensure they signed what they believe to be the next best import.
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Post by jmei on Mar 24, 2015 13:39:02 GMT -5
What's the board's thoughts on Hector Olivera? Perhaps they felt they got out-bid for Moncada and reallocated their resources to ensure they locked up their plan B? He's probably above average hitting but just ok in the field. Given that he's 29 and has played 29 games in the last 3 years, I'm really glad to be staying away. That seems like a lot of years for a good deal of money. I don't know what the Dodgers are going to do with him this year since they have Kendrick and Uribe at 2B and 3B. This is kind of what the platonic ideal of the big market team should do-- pick up assets that you think are undervalued, figure out how the pieces fit later. If they think he's as good as even a league-average player, this is a pretty good signing (I have no idea how likely that is, though). Kendrick and Uribe are surplus now, but they were on expiring contracts anyways and are easily moved (though Alex Guerrero, their last expensive Cuban middle infielder, is a stickier situation). I see it as pretty similar to the Rusney Castillo signing, though the timeline and players involved (I've read that Olivera is maybe a little better of a hitter, Castillo is a better defender and a little younger) are slightly different.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2015 13:41:41 GMT -5
He's probably above average hitting but just ok in the field. Given that he's 29 and has played 29 games in the last 3 years, I'm really glad to be staying away. That seems like a lot of years for a good deal of money. I don't know what the Dodgers are going to do with him this year since they have Kendrick and Uribe at 2B and 3B. Interesting, well, like I said, they probably had the financial resources already allocated for Moncada and lost out. I wouldn't doubt that they had already accounted for the cost of Moncada and decided to just reallocate the money towards Olivera to ensure they signed what they believe to be the next best import. Olivera is different than Moncada in that he's being signed for right now and will count against the luxury tax. Anyone who needed a 2B probably kicked the tires. The Dodgers probably blew away some of the other teams with that signing bonus, and that probably makes him easier to move towards the end of the contract.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2015 13:44:22 GMT -5
Dodgers have made a habit of overspending for guys who cost nothing but money since this ownership took over. If you're going to go over the luxury tax, you may as well blow by it.
I'd say this has nothing to do with Moncada. One is a 19-year-old prospect who would get a minor league deal, the other turns 30 on opening day and gets a major league deal. Very different.
EDIT: yup, see above.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2015 13:53:12 GMT -5
He's probably above average hitting but just ok in the field. Given that he's 29 and has played 29 games in the last 3 years, I'm really glad to be staying away. That seems like a lot of years for a good deal of money. I don't know what the Dodgers are going to do with him this year since they have Kendrick and Uribe at 2B and 3B. This is kind of what the platonic ideal of the big market team should do-- pick up assets that you think are undervalued, figure out how the pieces fit later. If they think he's as good as even a league-average player, this is a pretty good signing (I have no idea how likely that is, though). Kendrick and Uribe are surplus now, but they were on expiring contracts anyways and are easily moved (though Alex Guerrero, their last expensive Cuban middle infielder, is a stickier situation). I see it as pretty similar to the Rusney Castillo signing, though the timeline and players involved (I've read that Olivera is maybe a little better of a hitter, Castillo is a better defender and a little younger) are slightly different. That just seems like a lot of years. I'd actually be shocked if he's as good as Kendrick. Kendrick's contract was 4/33.5 which bought his last arb year, so maybe call it $10m per on open market, but he signed it at 27 after a 5.3 fWAR season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 24, 2015 13:56:29 GMT -5
I think the biggest issue is health. There's a blood disease which may be responsible for how he tired out during workouts, and the possible shoulder injury, though you'd think LA has that checked out. They've got the money, though there's a bit more risk, than Castillo, I think.
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Post by jmei on Mar 24, 2015 14:00:05 GMT -5
This is kind of what the platonic ideal of the big market team should do-- pick up assets that you think are undervalued, figure out how the pieces fit later. If they think he's as good as even a league-average player, this is a pretty good signing (I have no idea how likely that is, though). Kendrick and Uribe are surplus now, but they were on expiring contracts anyways and are easily moved (though Alex Guerrero, their last expensive Cuban middle infielder, is a stickier situation). I see it as pretty similar to the Rusney Castillo signing, though the timeline and players involved (I've read that Olivera is maybe a little better of a hitter, Castillo is a better defender and a little younger) are slightly different. That just seems like a lot of years. I'd actually be shocked if he's as good as Kendrick. Kendrick's contract was 4/33.5 which bought his last arb year, so maybe call it $10m per on open market, but he signed it at 27 after a 5.3 fWAR season. That's not really an appropriate comparison. Kendrick's contract was widely lauded as being extremely team-friendly, and it wasn't signed in free agency. The better comparison might be to Chase Headley's 4/$52m or Jhonny Peralta's 4/$53m. It is admittedly a lot of years, though.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2015 14:34:25 GMT -5
I wonder if the Dodgers will try to squeeze him lower with the pending physical over his supposedly damaged UCL. Apparently they don't have much faith in Uribe remaining healthy so Olivera is slated for 3B and possibly shifts to 2B next year after Kendrick is gone.
The timing is pretty bad though as he's likely missing all of spring training after playing 29 games in 3 years. I mean we saw what missing 3 years did to Sizemore and what missing spring training did to Stephen Drew. I think a layoff can be as bad if not worse than the actual injuries.
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Post by mgoetze on Mar 24, 2015 20:27:27 GMT -5
What's the board's thoughts on Hector Olivera? I have no thoughts on him. I haven't scouted him and I bet neither has anyone else on this board. Ask me again in a year when he has produced some stats.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 24, 2015 22:13:48 GMT -5
What's the board's thoughts on Hector Olivera? I have no thoughts on him. I haven't scouted him and I bet neither has anyone else on this board. Ask me again in a year when he has produced some stats. Thanks for the insight.
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Post by bookiemetts on Mar 25, 2015 0:29:29 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez @jessesanchezmlb · 3h 3 hours ago Source: A recent MRI on Olivera's elbow showed slight tear in UCL. Led to clause that gives Dodgers a seventh season at $1M if he needs TJ.
That could be bad. Seems like there's a lot of risk in that investment, although its not the same as a pitcher getting TJ.
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Post by jmei on Mar 25, 2015 6:06:43 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez @jessesanchezmlb · 3h 3 hours ago Source: A recent MRI on Olivera's elbow showed slight tear in UCL. Led to clause that gives Dodgers a seventh season at $1M if he needs TJ. That could be bad. Seems like there's a lot of risk in that investment, although its not the same as a pitcher getting TJ. The risk is that if he needs TJ, you're losing a year in his early 30s and gaining a year in his late 30s. Not really a trade you want to make. But it's better than nothing, I suppose.
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Post by michael on Mar 25, 2015 9:52:28 GMT -5
Should this contract clause be named "the Lackey Clause?"
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2015 11:18:03 GMT -5
That Olivera signing seems risky and unnecessary to me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2015 1:15:45 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2015 6:11:02 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 26, 2015 8:38:05 GMT -5
Say it aint so.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2015 8:44:20 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 11:21:07 GMT -5
Former Sox draft pick:
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Orioles RHP Branden Kline sat 96-98 hit 99 mph for 4 innings yesterday, hit 98 mph in other MILB ST outing, 88-90 mph SL was +, CH flashed +
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 27, 2015 15:34:26 GMT -5
Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi 17m17 minutes ago Kyle Drabek to #WhiteSox on waiver claim.
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Post by soxfan06 on Mar 28, 2015 13:29:04 GMT -5
Old friend Felix Doubront released.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 28, 2015 22:04:16 GMT -5
Greg Johns ?@gregjohnsmlb 5m5 minutes ago Sad news: Mariners prospect Victor Sanchez has died in Venezuela, according to his agent. gregjohns.mlblogs.com/ Sometimes life can suck. This is the kid that got hit by a boat while swimming. It's not like as if he was driving drunk or something.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2015 8:32:53 GMT -5
I certainly hope not. He's someone I want back. I highly value late inning power relievers and he has the makings of being a very good and cheap one. I understand why they left him unprotected, but it may cost them.
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Post by jmei on Mar 29, 2015 10:14:43 GMT -5
I freakin' love Ichiro:
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Post by Guidas on Mar 30, 2015 7:39:32 GMT -5
Not sure where to put these, but two interesting pieces on FiveThirtyEight. This one one PEDs: fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-powerlifting-tells-us-about-the-effects-of-peds/With this takeaway that those of us who have studied this issue are aware of but that is often ignored by the sports media: The distinction between the groups’ histories with strength-enhancing drugs is important because these drugs don’t just “flush out” completely — they can leave a lasting impact. Consider this 2008 American Physiological Society study, which found that the benefits of steroids in powerlifters can last several years beyond when the drugs leave their body.
So, even if drugs aren’t in an athlete’s system, he might be lifting heavier because he used PEDs a few years ago. He’s laid down a base of muscle that doesn’t just dry up when the drugs do. It may linger and help him kick ass for years to come.And this one about shoulders vs. elbows in baseball, which adds to the Vazquez/Aiken conversation, although it is pitcher-specific: fivethirtyeight.com/features/at-least-all-these-tommy-john-surgeries-arent-rotator-cuff-surgeries/As we all know the success rate is exponentially greater for elbow/TJ surgery in comparison to shoulder surgery. But this interesting tidbit, as well: Pitchers who underwent UCL reconstruction saw their number of innings pitched decline by an average of about 53 innings in the three years following their return — no small margin. In contrast, pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery experienced a much greater decrease, notching more than 134 fewer innings.
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