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4/27-4/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2015 10:02:11 GMT -5
Porcello has undergone the same transformation-- fewer two-seamers, more four-seamers and sliders. Thus the career-high strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) and the career-low GB% (46.2%) this year. It's gone less well for Porcello, since he's given up more home runs and seen a notable uptick in his walk rate. But he still also has a solidly above-average league- and park-adjust xFIP (98 xFIP-). Masterson is also throwing fewer sinkers and more sliders. Miley's actually throwing more two-seamers, as is Buchholz (though his seems more like a pitch categorization error more than anything else). But 3/5 sinkerballs throwing fewer two-seamers and trading ground balls for more strikeouts certainly seems interesting.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 28, 2015 10:09:05 GMT -5
Why all the changes from go-to pitches for most of the pitchers (Masterson's & Porcello's sinkers, esp.) to more sliders? I have to assume pitching coach/Farrell philosophy? Why?
I get that it might be the right thing for Kelly. But Porcello and Masterson might be better off tilting back toward a few more sinkers, no? Or is that the plan?
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Post by okin15 on Apr 28, 2015 10:32:08 GMT -5
Basically this - I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough. For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October. Wait, are you suggesting that's not OK? I think that fans of a team which is behind the Yankees and has the worst run-differential in the division have every right to whine and complain. People keep going on and on about our bad luck in BABIP so far (or whatever else) and I want those same people to understand that we aren't going to lead the league in unearned runs going forward. Unless the Sox play better, they're going to be an 81-85-win team, which is not enough. Take out our 6-2 start (which included a series against the Phillies) and our record matches the keening and whining quite well.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 10:38:37 GMT -5
Basically this - I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough. For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October. Wait, are you suggesting that's not OK? I think that fans of a team which is behind the Yankees and has the worst run-differential in the division have every right to whine and complain. People keep going on and on about our bad luck in BABIP so far (or whatever else) and I want those same people to understand that we aren't going to lead the league in unearned runs going forward. Unless the Sox play better, they're going to be an 81-85-win team, which is not enough. Take out our 6-2 start (which included a series against the Phillies) and our record matches the keening and whining quite well. It's off the charts. Go read this game thread for examples. It's not just whining. It's leaping to absurd conclusions, like they need to replace about 23 players on the roster. They need to demote Mookie. Xander is a bust. Miley is the worst pitcher who ever pitched in the majors. Fire the GM and manager and coaches. They're a bunch of chokers who can't hit with runners on base. They went into a damn slump, that's all. If it happened in the middle of the season, no one would notice. They lost two games by 21 runs, so I'm don't think run differential is a huge deal. They gave up in those games.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,897
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Post by nomar on Apr 28, 2015 10:52:30 GMT -5
Giving up is the new market inefficiency
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Post by okin15 on Apr 28, 2015 10:58:23 GMT -5
Fair enough. And before anyone mentions it, I know you can't just go cherry-picking which games to count for our record. I do stand by the run differential thing. I think it's an issue. I'm curious what our second-order pythag is. Will check back when I find it. Baseball prospectus has it: www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/Terrifyingly, we are outperforming (slightly) all three orders, while the Yanks are underperforming theirs. Sure, it's early, SSS, etc. but I don't think the Sox have played better than a .500 team. And they need to be better than that obviously to win the division.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 28, 2015 12:10:20 GMT -5
Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so. It's almost as if you didn't read the two posts in this thread pointing out his career-high velocity and newly incorporated slider, both indicators that the spike in his strikeout rate is at least somewhat sustainable. I think the slider, in particular, is an important addition ... it's a really, really good pitch, and he seems to have better command of it than his fastball, actually. It looked great yesterday. I guess perhaps the hitters will start to adapt to the slider as they get used to it, but I think there's a little bit of a balance here ... it's not quite a zero-sum thing, but as hitters start to look more for his slider, it might allow his FB to play up a little bit more. I'm actually quite optimistic on Kelly, like others are. I think he's just a better pitcher than he was.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 28, 2015 12:24:28 GMT -5
Just noticed this in 108 stitches: "That said, the Sox appear an unlikely match for Saltalamacchia given the team’s emphasis on pitch-framing at the bottom of the strike zone" I hadn't realized before that the bottom of the zone was more important than other edges. Is this consistent with the conversations we've been having, or is it a new twist on our understanding of pitch framing.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2015 12:51:46 GMT -5
Just noticed this in 108 stitches: "That said, the Sox appear an unlikely match for Saltalamacchia given the team’s emphasis on pitch-framing at the bottom of the strike zone" I hadn't realized before that the bottom of the zone was more important than other edges. Is this consistent with the conversations we've been having, or is it a new twist on our understanding of pitch framing. I think Speier has mentioned the specific bottom of the zone stuff two or three times now (but not written a whole article about it, and he's the only one talking about it). I think it's along the same lines as the stuff we've been discussing.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 28, 2015 12:58:25 GMT -5
Porcello has undergone the same transformation-- fewer two-seamers, more four-seamers and sliders. Thus the career-high strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) and the career-low GB% (46.2%) this year. It's gone less well for Porcello, since he's given up more home runs and seen a notable uptick in his walk rate. But he still also has a solidly above-average league- and park-adjust xFIP (98 xFIP-). Masterson is also throwing fewer sinkers and more sliders. Miley's actually throwing more two-seamers, as is Buchholz (though his seems more like a pitch categorization error more than anything else). But 3/5 sinkerballs throwing fewer two-seamers and trading ground balls for more strikeouts certainly seems interesting. That is interesting ... we'll see if it continues, but it seems too widespread to be random. If they are experimenting with different approaches, that possibly gives a little bit different cast to the results so far. Not sure if it's a positive or negative cast, but Interesting piece from MacPherson on Buchholz changing his change-up grip to get more horizontal movement, which includes a link to a stark Brooks Baseball chart on the difference in movement this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 13:01:42 GMT -5
Just noticed this in 108 stitches: "That said, the Sox appear an unlikely match for Saltalamacchia given the team’s emphasis on pitch-framing at the bottom of the strike zone" I hadn't realized before that the bottom of the zone was more important than other edges. Is this consistent with the conversations we've been having, or is it a new twist on our understanding of pitch framing. It's very consistent when you have a bunch of ground ball pitchers. If the catcher is expanding the strike zone down, the batters swing at more of those pitches and hit more ground balls.
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 28, 2015 13:17:43 GMT -5
@alexspeier: Sox lineup 4/28 vs. TOR: Betts CF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, Sandoval 3B, Nava 1B, Holt RF, Bogaerts SS, Hanigan C, Buchholz RHP
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 28, 2015 13:23:34 GMT -5
Good to see Sandoval back in there ... he was playing very, very well yesterday. Also good to see Holt in RF. With the exception of Napoli out for illness, that's their best lineup, at least until Castillo comes back and proves to be worthy of a major league job.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 28, 2015 13:59:21 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 28, 2015 13:59:38 GMT -5
I still don't understand why Xman can't move up in the order. Even one or two spots up. I think he would see better pitches. I believe he is a better hitter than Nava. I don't understand Farrell sometimes. I mean when Victorino was in lineup he was doing nothing and Farrell didn't make any changes. He might know pitching but I question his lineups.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 14:08:06 GMT -5
That is so messed up, that there's a game being played in front of no fans.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 14:09:41 GMT -5
I still don't understand why Xman can't move up in the order. Even one or two spots up. I think he would see better pitches. I believe he is a better hitter than Nava. I don't understand Farrell sometimes. I mean when Victorino was in lineup he was doing nothing and Farrell didn't make any changes. He might know pitching but I question his lineups. He has a mighty fine BA/OBP for a SS and basically no power. He has controlled the plate very well, but I'm not sure what you're seeing that warrants him moving up in the order? Let the kid develop on his own without tinkering. When he finds his power, then lets talk about where he should be hitting.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 14:10:23 GMT -5
That is so messed up, that there's a game being played in front of no fans. They're playing in Florida?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 14:11:57 GMT -5
That is so messed up, that there's a game being played in front of no fans. They're playing in Florida? Tomorrow's game vs. White Sox is closed to the public?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 14:14:18 GMT -5
They're playing in Florida? Tomorrow's game vs. White Sox is closed to the public?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 14:22:28 GMT -5
Not ready for jokes yet. I'm in shock that they're going to play a game in an empty stadium on purpose. It's a new one for me in my 40ish years of watching baseball.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 28, 2015 14:33:18 GMT -5
“@peteabe: #RedSox 1B Mike Napoli is sick — contagious in fact — and will be out another couple of days. Sox needed a position player so JBJ recalled”
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2015 14:49:44 GMT -5
JBJ is back up! Jeez I would love an OF of Castillo-JBJ-Mookie and stick Hanley on 1st (next year).
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2015 15:32:30 GMT -5
Wait, are you suggesting that's not OK? I think that fans of a team which is behind the Yankees and has the worst run-differential in the division have every right to whine and complain. People keep going on and on about our bad luck in BABIP so far (or whatever else) and I want those same people to understand that we aren't going to lead the league in unearned runs going forward. Unless the Sox play better, they're going to be an 81-85-win team, which is not enough. Take out our 6-2 start (which included a series against the Phillies) and our record matches the keening and whining quite well. It's off the charts. Go read this game thread for examples. It's not just whining. I t's leaping to absurd conclusions, like they need to replace about 23 players on the roster. They need to demote Mookie. Xander is a bust. Miley is the worst pitcher who ever pitched in the majors. Fire the GM and manager and coaches. They're a bunch of chokers who can't hit with runners on base. They went into a damn slump, that's all. If it happened in the middle of the season, no one would notice. They lost two games by 21 runs, so I'm don't think run differential is a huge deal. They gave up in those games. That's like every other game thread every year, including 2013. The frustration tends to seethe early, middle and late because…c'mon - we're Red Sox fans. Especially those of us over 35, who have been conditioned to have the bottom fall out. Besides, we hardly ever mean it. Hardly.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2015 15:37:34 GMT -5
JBJ is back up! Jeez I would love an OF of Castillo-JBJ-Mookie and stick Hanley on 1st (next year). Swihart at C. I'd be down with that. Would get 4 LH bats in there. Betts - LF Pedey - 2B Ortiz - DH Hanley - 1B Panda - 3b Castillo - RF JBJ - CF Bogaerts - SS Swihart - C
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