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4/27-4/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 28, 2015 8:22:07 GMT -5
I don't necessarily disagree they may have thought he was going to bounce back. Its just the reality we now face that Craig's contract is starting to look ugly.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 8:28:15 GMT -5
I agree with jmei and others, I would not worry about Kelly. He seems to be getting better. His stuff has really impressed me in a few of his starts. I do think we could have done better in a trade though. Especially on the Craig end of it. That could be the point others are making. Kelly has to pan out for this to be a fair trade and even then we took back an awful contract along with giving up Lackey. I think people aren't understanding what I want/expect out of Kelly. I actually do love his upside. I think he has really good potential and I want him on this staff. He'd be fantastic if he were the 4/5th starter as someone with an immense ceiling, but if he doesn't pan out then he's not killing the team. Right now, he's the Red Sox best pitcher and that's a problem. I don't get why he is apparently immune to criticism either. While the upside is there, he had a 4.11 ERA last season with a 4.6 FIP. He was giving up close to 5 walks per start. This year, his ERA is 4.94, but yes, his FIP is 3.5 and his K/9 is 10.6 when for his career its been about 6 even. The walks are even way down which is great. He still has yet to put it all together and he seems to have the DiceK effect. Pitches extremely well before having a rough inning. He was absolutely cruising against Tampa before he had a sudden meltdown and gave up a 5-1 lead in only 16 pitches (12 balls, 4 hits). He would have been hammered worse if Farrell didn't pull the plug on him. 10K doesn't mean much to me unless he's at least giving you a quality start. I'd be more ecstatic with 7 IP 2 ER 3 BB 1K at this point, even though the peripherals aren't the best indicator of future success. When he starts showing consistency and not giving up 5+ runs per game and can string together quality starts, then I'll be back on the bandwagon. As I said, I want him on this team, the peripherals are promising, but go out there and put it together. His issues are only compounded by the failures of Porcello, Milley, Masterson and Buchholz. Food for thought. Are the Red Sox pitchers over-throwing? Kelly Career - 6.4 K/9 Kelly 2015 - 10.6 K/9 Porcello Career - 5.6 K/9 Porcello 2015 - 8.3 K/9 Buchholz Career - 7.0 K/9 Buchholz 2015 - 11.7 K/9 Miley Career - 5.7 K/9 Milley 2015 - 7.0 K/9 Masterson Career - 7.5 K/9 Masterson 2015 - 7.9 K/9 Outside of Masterson and Miley, those are pretty significant jumps.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 8:31:41 GMT -5
I don't necessarily disagree they may have thought he was going to bounce back. Its just the reality we now face that Craig's contract is starting to look ugly. It might be a possibility if they would have just sent him down to AAA to begin with and continue to get regular reps. This is their best bet to salvage any sort of value out of him. I'd rather give the job to Bryce Brentz if they wanted an extra outfielder to ride the bench. I want JBJ and Castillo to get as many ABs as possible. Unless they're starting, the should be in AAA.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 8:33:50 GMT -5
10K doesn't mean much to me unless he's at least giving you a quality start. So you're giving Kelly almost full responsibility for his BABIP. Which means that you just don't understand baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 8:37:11 GMT -5
Basically this -
I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough.
For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 8:48:48 GMT -5
10K doesn't mean much to me unless he's at least giving you a quality start. So you're giving Kelly almost full responsibility for his BABIP. Which means that you just don't understand baseball. Oh yes, you're right, 12 balls and 4 hits is just such poor luck. Outside of his first start against NY 118 pitches to go through 5.2 IP against Baltimore. He gave up 2 ER 1 HR 3/2 K/BB and 10/8 FB/GB Yanked after 82 pitches going 5 IP against Tampa. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 7/1 K/BB and 8/8 FB/GB. Did I mention he imploded on 16 pitches going into the 5th or that Tampa is one of the weakest lineups in baseball? 104 pitches to get through 6 IP against Toronto. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 10K/3BB and 6/6 FB/GB. His GB/FB ratio is the lowest it has ever been for his career at 0.79.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 8:58:58 GMT -5
Basically this - I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough. For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October. The Red Sox could literally have the same exact record and I'd care much less if the rotation showed any form of consistency. I've not once called for Kelly to be removed, but am completely flabbergasted by the amount of defense he's getting. What has he done in his time with the Red Sox? Have a high velocity FB? Put up career highs in strike outs? I remember when he first came here people were saying the velocity was great, but that it was flat and didn't have a lot of movement. It's not like he was even pitching that well with St. Louis when he came over here and did nothing for the remainder of the season. He's giving up more fly balls than ground balls then he ever has. Sure, he has a higher BABIP, but do you think his 10+ K/9 is sustainable when his career is about 6? It's like you're taking all the good from his starts and ignoring any potential downside. He had a 3.9 BB rate last season (including the 4.7 when he was on the Sox). He is currently sitting at 3.0 which ties him with his rookie season as his career best. There are no concerns with an up tick in walks and a severe down tick in K rate, or do we think Kelly is going to really have a breakout campaign in both departments moving forward?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 28, 2015 9:01:44 GMT -5
According to www.tangotiger.net/welist.html the IBB improves your win expectancy by 0.4% with average hitters, so you don't have to think Papi is better than Mookie by much to make the IBB wrong. But most of the time the IBB would be correct. Thanks for the link. Evidence that the ol' sacrifice bunt doesn't do anything except lower your chances of winning. And that is if the bunt is successful.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 9:01:54 GMT -5
So you're giving Kelly almost full responsibility for his BABIP. Which means that you just don't understand baseball. Oh yes, you're right, 12 balls and 4 hits is just such poor luck. Outside of his first start against NY 118 pitches to go through 5.2 IP against Baltimore. He gave up 2 ER 1 HR 3/2 K/BB and 10/8 FB/GB Yanked after 82 pitches going 5 IP against Tampa. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 7/1 K/BB and 8/8 FB/GB. Did I mention he imploded on 16 pitches going into the 5th or that Tampa is one of the weakest lineups in baseball? 104 pitches to get through 6 IP against Toronto. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 10K/3BB and 6/6 FB/GB. His GB/FB ratio is the lowest it has ever been for his career at 0.79. Not sure what your argument is. His K% is ridiculously high which is good and his walk rate is at a career low. And his xFIP is 3.08 and his SIERA is 2.98. K rate, BB rate and SIERA are the greatest predictor of future performance.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 9:03:57 GMT -5
Basically this - I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough. For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October. The Red Sox could literally have the same exact record and I'd care much less if the rotation showed any form of consistency. I've not once called for Kelly to be removed, but am completely flabbergasted by the amount of defense he's getting. What has he done in his time with the Red Sox? Have a high velocity FB? Put up career highs in strike outs? I remember when he first came here people were saying the velocity was great, but that it was flat and didn't have a lot of movement. It's not like he was even pitching that well with St. Louis when he came over here and did nothing for the remainder of the season. He's giving up more fly balls than ground balls then he ever has. Sure, he has a higher BABIP, but do you think his 10+ K/9 is sustainable when his career is about 6? It's like you're taking all the good from his starts and ignoring any potential downside. He had a 3.9 BB rate last season (including the 4.7 when he was on the Sox). He is currently sitting at 3.0 which ties him with his rookie season as his career best. There are no concerns with an up tick in walks and a severe down tick in K rate, or do we think Kelly is going to really have a breakout campaign in both departments moving forward? You know what is really not sustainable? His ERA being almost 2 runs higher than his xFIP and SIERA.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:06:56 GMT -5
Oh yes, you're right, 12 balls and 4 hits is just such poor luck. Outside of his first start against NY 118 pitches to go through 5.2 IP against Baltimore. He gave up 2 ER 1 HR 3/2 K/BB and 10/8 FB/GB Yanked after 82 pitches going 5 IP against Tampa. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 7/1 K/BB and 8/8 FB/GB. Did I mention he imploded on 16 pitches going into the 5th or that Tampa is one of the weakest lineups in baseball? 104 pitches to get through 6 IP against Toronto. He gave up 5 ER 1 HR 10K/3BB and 6/6 FB/GB. His GB/FB ratio is the lowest it has ever been for his career at 0.79. Not sure what your argument is. His K% is ridiculously high which is good and his walk rate is at a career low. And his xFIP is 3.08 and his SIERA is 2.98. K rate, BB rate and SIERA are the greatest predictor of future performance. His GB/FB ratio is at an all-time low and while he's been snake bitten a bit in terms of BABIP, I'm not entirely sold that his "ridiculously high K%" is exactly sustainable for him, or even his walk rate. I can see him having a 3.0 BB/9 for the rest of the season, but I'm not entirely sold on him going from 6 to 10 K/9. If both categories return to career norms then he'll go back to being a "meh" pitcher, which is still light years from what they're currently getting from this staff. Again, would love to be wrong. I am a fan of Kelly's potential.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:07:59 GMT -5
The Red Sox could literally have the same exact record and I'd care much less if the rotation showed any form of consistency. I've not once called for Kelly to be removed, but am completely flabbergasted by the amount of defense he's getting. What has he done in his time with the Red Sox? Have a high velocity FB? Put up career highs in strike outs? I remember when he first came here people were saying the velocity was great, but that it was flat and didn't have a lot of movement. It's not like he was even pitching that well with St. Louis when he came over here and did nothing for the remainder of the season. He's giving up more fly balls than ground balls then he ever has. Sure, he has a higher BABIP, but do you think his 10+ K/9 is sustainable when his career is about 6? It's like you're taking all the good from his starts and ignoring any potential downside. He had a 3.9 BB rate last season (including the 4.7 when he was on the Sox). He is currently sitting at 3.0 which ties him with his rookie season as his career best. There are no concerns with an up tick in walks and a severe down tick in K rate, or do we think Kelly is going to really have a breakout campaign in both departments moving forward? You know what is really not sustainable? His ERA being almost 2 runs higher than his xFIP and SIERA. Which is helped greatly by a 10+ K/9 and an even 3 BB/9.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 9:11:07 GMT -5
Not sure what your argument is. His K% is ridiculously high which is good and his walk rate is at a career low. And his xFIP is 3.08 and his SIERA is 2.98. K rate, BB rate and SIERA are the greatest predictor of future performance. His GB/FB ratio is at an all-time low and while he's been snake bitten a bit in terms of BABIP, I'm not entirely sold that his "ridiculously high K%" is exactly sustainable for him, or even his walk rate. I can see him having a 3.0 BB/9 for the rest of the season, but I'm not entirely sold on him going from 6 to 10 K/9. If both categories return to career norms then he'll go back to being a "meh" pitcher, which is still light years from what they're currently getting from this staff. Again, would love to be wrong. I am a fan of Kelly's potential. He has given up 25 ground balls and 22 fly balls. Do you realize how small of a sample that is? One game could change his season numbers back to his career average.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 9:13:52 GMT -5
You know what is really not sustainable? His ERA being almost 2 runs higher than his xFIP and SIERA. Which is helped greatly by a 10+ K/9 and an even 3 BB/9. How can you complain about a good thing? Basically you're saying "Joe Kelly sucks because he has sucked in his career and can't improve."
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:14:32 GMT -5
His GB/FB ratio is at an all-time low and while he's been snake bitten a bit in terms of BABIP, I'm not entirely sold that his "ridiculously high K%" is exactly sustainable for him, or even his walk rate. I can see him having a 3.0 BB/9 for the rest of the season, but I'm not entirely sold on him going from 6 to 10 K/9. If both categories return to career norms then he'll go back to being a "meh" pitcher, which is still light years from what they're currently getting from this staff. Again, would love to be wrong. I am a fan of Kelly's potential. He has given up 25 ground balls and 22 fly balls. Do you realize how small of a sample that is? One game could change his season numbers back to his career average. He's pitched four games. The whole thing is a small sample, which is why I'm not calling for his head. Great stuff, some early great peripherals to go along with some concerns and one bad peripheral. All mixed together, it hasn't yet translated on the field.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 9:15:44 GMT -5
I think we should have two series threads for each series. One for people who care about ERA and one for those who don't.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 28, 2015 9:17:44 GMT -5
Basically this - I want the Red Sox to win every game and I'll whine if they don't. And even if they don't win by enough. For Red Sox fans, prior to 2004, the whining didn't use to come until October. Agreed...so many more venues and forums to vent discontent earlier today. I loved the days of being a kid and looking at my Jim Rice card and memorizing the stats he had from 77-79...still think it one of the greatest offensive 3 years spans. And I just loved the Red Sox. And hated the Yankees. I actually let my dog chew and play with a 1978 World Series baseball signed by the NYY entire team. GO SOX!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:18:33 GMT -5
Which is helped greatly by a 10+ K/9 and an even 3 BB/9. How can you complain about a good thing? Basically you're saying "Joe Kelly sucks because he has sucked in his career and can't improve." No, that's pointing out a realistic fact. Joe Kelly has been hurt by an absurd BABIP. Ok, lets put a check mark next to that box as to why he will improve. Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 9:26:23 GMT -5
How can you complain about a good thing? Basically you're saying "Joe Kelly sucks because he has sucked in his career and can't improve." No, that's pointing out a realistic fact. Joe Kelly has been hurt by an absurd BABIP. Ok, lets put a check mark next to that box as to why he will improve. Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so. If he pitches anywhere close to the way he's pitching now for the entire season, he's a #2 pitcher. I'm thrilled with him so far.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2015 9:29:20 GMT -5
Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so. It's almost as if you didn't read the two posts in this thread pointing out his career-high velocity and newly incorporated slider, both indicators that the spike in his strikeout rate is at least somewhat sustainable.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:34:07 GMT -5
No, that's pointing out a realistic fact. Joe Kelly has been hurt by an absurd BABIP. Ok, lets put a check mark next to that box as to why he will improve. Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so. If he pitches anywhere close to the way he's pitching now for the entire season, he's a #2 pitcher. I'm thrilled with him so far. If Kelly continues to strike out guys the way he has, doesn't seemingly get the YIPS for one inning like he has in his past two starts, the BABIP goes way down, and he starts to induce more ground balls then I don't see why he'd be considered anything less than a one. I'll even edit my signature to "Jimed was right" or something of the like.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2015 9:35:44 GMT -5
My thoughts on Porcello and Kelly are that I'm not sure these early season games will be what we see in the summer. The pitchers are strong coming out of spring training. There is no fatigue. It's cool out. When it gets hot out and some wear and tear on them. I think they might get their sinkers working better. Porcello is over-throwing IMO too. Probably, trying to live up to his new contract. I think we'll see a lot more ground balls from each as the season wears on.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:36:20 GMT -5
Yet, I can't point out the simple fact that he's blowing away career norms by having an almost 11 K/9 and say that might balance out the BABIP since both are likely to return to the norm? I'm not saying he sucks because his K rate is awesome. I'm saying that you might need to tap the breaks since this is completely unsustainable. I'm sure he will improve on his career numbers, but he's not going to take a monumental leap forward, at least, I don't believe so. It's almost as if you didn't read the two posts in this thread pointing out his career-high velocity and newly incorporated slider, both indicators that the spike in his strikeout rate is at least somewhat sustainable. No, I did not see that. But again, lets see how sustainable this is. Though that is a promising indicator.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2015 9:44:05 GMT -5
My thoughts on Porcello and Kelly are that I'm not sure these early season games will be what we see in the summer. The pitchers are strong coming out of spring training. There is no fatigue. It's cool out. When it gets hot out and some wear and tear on them. I think they might get their sinkers working better. Porcello is over-throwing IMO too. Probably, trying to live up to his new contract. I think we'll see a lot more ground balls from each as the season wears on. Kelly's decrease in GB% this year is intentional. He's basically cut the number of two-seam fastballs (his primary GB-inducing pitch) in half compared to two years ago and replaced it with four-seamers and sliders (his pitch distribution chart is here). Those four-seamers and sliders induce fewer ground balls, but get more swings-and-misses, which is why his GB% is down but his K% is up. So far, it's been a fairly productive exchange for him, at least based on his peripherals (he's ranked in the top 20 in all of baseball in terms of park- and league-adjusted xFIP (ADD: Clay Buchholz ranks 8th by that metric, btw)). It's still early, though, and we'll see if his pretty radical shift in approach continues to be good for him.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2015 9:56:09 GMT -5
My thoughts on Porcello and Kelly are that I'm not sure these early season games will be what we see in the summer. The pitchers are strong coming out of spring training. There is no fatigue. It's cool out. When it gets hot out and some wear and tear on them. I think they might get their sinkers working better. Porcello is over-throwing IMO too. Probably, trying to live up to his new contract. I think we'll see a lot more ground balls from each as the season wears on. Kelly's decrease in GB% this year is intentional. He's basically cut the number of two-seam fastballs (his primary GB-inducing pitch) in half compared to two years ago and replaced it with four-seamers and sliders (his pitch distribution chart is here). Those four-seamers and sliders induce fewer ground balls, but get more swings-and-misses, which is why his GB% is down but his K% is up. So far, it's been a fairly productive exchange for him, at least based on his peripherals (he's ranked in the top 20 in all of baseball in terms of park- and league-adjusted xFIP (ADD: Clay Buchholz ranks 8th by that metric, btw)). It's still early, though, and we'll see if his pretty radical shift in approach continues to be good for him. He's changed his strategy for sure. But, is he doing it because he's throwing 98 or 99? Or, is that going to be his arsenal going forward? I'm guessing as he loses a few MPH on his four-seamer. He's going to throw more 2 seamers.
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