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Post by jamarco on May 20, 2016 14:41:52 GMT -5
You are probably right. But wait one more year. Young Trey is growing and getting stronger as we speak. What's that? Trey has added 2 mph to his 4 seamer. Lets give the kid 2016 and then we reconvene. Where are you getting that he added 2mph on his fastball?
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Trey Ball
May 21, 2016 19:55:41 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on May 21, 2016 19:55:41 GMT -5
You are probably right. But wait one more year. Young Trey is growing and getting stronger as we speak. What's that? Trey has added 2 mph to his 4 seamer. Lets give the kid 2016 and then we reconvene. He is starting to learn to repeat his delivery and commending the strike zone more this spring. However he is nowhere near a finished product. There will be tremendous ups and downs going forward, but his stuff is good enough for the major leagues if he can pull it all together.
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Trey Ball
May 21, 2016 20:22:49 GMT -5
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Post by dnfl333 on May 21, 2016 20:22:49 GMT -5
Guns n Roses has a famous song that pertains to Ball. It's called "Patience"!
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Post by stevedillard on May 22, 2016 6:43:36 GMT -5
You are probably right. But wait one more year. Young Trey is growing and getting stronger as we speak. What's that? Trey has added 2 mph to his 4 seamer. Lets give the kid 2016 and then we reconvene. Where are you getting that he added 2mph on his fastball? Because when drafted three years ago he www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/And obviously he is now at 93-96
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2016 9:10:41 GMT -5
Methinks some people aren't looking at the dates on some of the posts they are replying to. We've got a mishmash of info from Nov last year and now going on.
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Post by dnfl333 on May 22, 2016 19:44:01 GMT -5
Good outing tonight. AA in a few weeks?
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Trey Ball
May 22, 2016 21:28:46 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on May 22, 2016 21:28:46 GMT -5
Good outing tonight. AA in a few weeks? If he continues to throw well, command the strike zone and tighten up the secondary pitches I would think an August 1 call up to Portland would be best for him.
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Trey Ball
May 22, 2016 22:52:58 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 22, 2016 22:52:58 GMT -5
I'm taking it that you were being facetious.
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Trey Ball
May 22, 2016 23:10:19 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 22, 2016 23:10:19 GMT -5
1) Ball was 89-93 in his last start, per Alex Speier. Let's all dispense with the insanity of him sitting 94-95. 2) His BAA and WHIP are terrific so far this year, but he's still getting less than 6K/9. That's not good. Especially when he's walking more than 3/9. 3) His GB:FB ratio is quite good so far, so maybe he's pitching down and to weak contact. It's going to take a little while to see if it's real, though. 4) Since he's repeating the level, I'd guess the Aug 1 promotion might be reasonable, provided he keeps pitching efficiently and his peripherals don't change much. Any earlier seems a stretch, given his recent health troubles and history of poor performance. He's still pretty raw. AA just after turning 22 would be pretty solid.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2016 23:28:43 GMT -5
I was at his first start back from the DL and he was 90-92. With the bad weather that night, I'd certainly buy that he's up to 93 in recent games, but he's not sitting mid-90s. No way.
EDIT: And yeah, what Ray said--remember to look at the dates of posts to which you're replying.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 23, 2016 2:53:04 GMT -5
He's 21 repeating High A level with 12/19 BB/K in 29 IP. I'm not impressed.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 23, 2016 10:13:22 GMT -5
Seems like he is getting a ton of grounders. I wonder if that cutter is inducing a lot of weak contact?
It's a SSS and he is still pretty raw I'd imagine, but it definitely seems like he is trending in the right direction
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Post by burythehammer on May 23, 2016 11:48:46 GMT -5
He's 21 repeating High A level with 12/19 BB/K in 29 IP. I'm not impressed. Seriously. Here's an experiment: Forget that he was drafted 7th overall for a moment and tell me what you would ttypically think of a prospect with Trey Ball's stuff/track record.
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Post by okin15 on May 23, 2016 14:08:33 GMT -5
Also given his track record (and scouting reports) from previous years, I'd think he was a fringy starter candidate with a good shot of a bullpen role. And that's definitely some better than I thought three weeks ago. Having some actual success (not unqualified, but success nonetheless) is a very good thing from a guy with some good stuff and pitching against age-appropriate competition.
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Trey Ball
May 23, 2016 15:09:37 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2016 15:09:37 GMT -5
I'll say this - I liked what I saw from him this year a lot more than what I saw from Buttrey or Stankiewicz last year. This of course requires the caveat that Stankiewicz with his new/old arm slot is a different pitcher.
If Ball can learn to command the fastball, which is no small thing, I see him as a back end starter, sure.
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wbcd
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Post by wbcd on May 23, 2016 22:16:03 GMT -5
I don't think people realize how little good LH starting pitching there is today. As of right now, there are a total of 19 LH starting pitchers (according to baseballprospectus) who average more than 92 mph on their 4-seamer. There are 27 pitchers who average more than 91 mph. Here is the list: Robbie Ray Steven Matz Chris Sale Matt Moore Clayton Kershaw David Price Carlos Rodon Derek Holland Cole Hamels Sean Manaea Jon Lester Adam Conley Jose Quintana J.A. Happ Patrick Corbin Hector Santiago Drew Pomeranz Jeff Locke Scott Kazmir Madison Bumgarner Adam Morgan Wade Miley Wei-Yin Chen Rich Hill Gio Gonzalez Drew Smyly Jaime Garcia www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/I think I read here that Ball had only given up one hit to a LH hitter before last start. It seems that his likely floor is a LOOGY, and thus he'll probably have a long major league baseball career. Brian Matusz has made almost $10M in his career. I suspect Ball is going to have a better career than Matusz. We should all teach our kids to throw lefty.
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Post by jamarco on May 24, 2016 0:16:05 GMT -5
Seems like he is getting a ton of grounders. I wonder if that cutter is inducing a lot of weak contact? It's a SSS and he is still pretty raw I'd imagine, but it definitely seems like he is trending in the right direction Is it a cutter or a slider?
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Trey Ball
May 24, 2016 1:42:12 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 24, 2016 1:42:12 GMT -5
I don't think people realize how little good LH starting pitching there is today. As of right now, there are a total of 19 LH starting pitchers (according to baseballprospectus) who average more than 92 mph on their 4-seamer. There are 27 pitchers who average more than 91 mph. Here is the list: Robbie Ray Steven Matz Chris Sale Matt Moore Clayton Kershaw David Price Carlos Rodon Derek Holland Cole Hamels Sean Manaea Jon Lester Adam Conley Jose Quintana J.A. Happ Patrick Corbin Hector Santiago Drew Pomeranz Jeff Locke Scott Kazmir Madison Bumgarner Adam Morgan Wade Miley Wei-Yin Chen Rich Hill Gio Gonzalez Drew Smyly Jaime Garcia www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/I think I read here that Ball had only given up one hit to a LH hitter before last start. It seems that his likely floor is a LOOGY, and thus he'll probably have a long major league baseball career. Brian Matusz has made almost $10M in his career. I suspect Ball is going to have a better career than Matusz. We should all teach our kids to throw lefty. Well, and some of those guys no longer average 92. Average LH velocity in the majors is about 91 (I think it's within a tenth or two, RH are a little over 92). So working 90-93 is fine. Anything more and it's plus velo for a LH. I think your floor estimation is probably pretty accurate. Too early to me to call a 50% projection, but I'd say somewhere in the 4/5/swingman range. I think he becomes a serviceable major-leaguer, at least. His rawness leaves me holding out hope that he's more than that.
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Post by jmei on May 24, 2016 6:33:13 GMT -5
I think I read here that Ball had only given up one hit to a LH hitter before last start. It seems that his likely floor is a LOOGY, and thus he'll probably have a long major league baseball career. Brian Matusz has made almost $10M in his career. I suspect Ball is going to have a better career than Matusz. We should all teach our kids to throw lefty. Here are Ball's career splits versus LHH. So far this year, in 20 batters faced, he's given up 2 hits (which is good) but one of those hits was a home run, and he only has 1 strikeout and 3 walks (which is bad). A lot of ground balls, but still, I wouldn't call it dominating LHH, and the same goes for previous years. Ball pitches with that almost over-the-top arm angle, and guys with that arm angle generally don't have extreme platoon splits. It's the sidearmers that generally make for the best LOOGYs. As such, I'm not sure he's particularly suited for left-handed specialist duty.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 24, 2016 9:08:03 GMT -5
People are grasping at straws to get excited about Ball. I want to be careful how I say this.... He's not a good prospect. There I said it. He's just not. Take the 7th overall pick off his resume and he's not ranked where he's ranked and we are not excited about his numbers.
Repeating high A at age 21(22 in June). Mediocre stuff. Lousy K rate and poor Walk rate. Sure his ERA and WHIP look nice right now but that won't play in he upper minors with where he's currently at.
It's a step in the right direction compared to him being shelled, but it's pretty discouraging still. His projected stuff hasn't developed. Doesn't mean he has no future but he's just another guy right now.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2016 13:40:32 GMT -5
Take the 7th overall pick off his resume and he's not ranked where he's ranked and we are not excited about his numbers. Yep, I'm having a hard time understanding why he's ahead of someone like Raudes in the ranking here.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 24, 2016 13:45:56 GMT -5
If all you can see is box scores, sure. But scouts still have questions about how Raudes' stuff will play at higher levels.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2016 16:04:53 GMT -5
The difference is staggering and we're not speaking end results here (ERA, WHIP, that kind of stuff): It's command/control/pitchability Raudes is sporting a 4.75 K/BB rate in Low A as the SECOND youngest player in the league (His K%-BB% is the 8th in the league with a bunch of 22 years olds in front of him) while Ball has a very mediocre 1.58 K/BB while being 3 years and 8 months older and pitching at only 1 level above. There's also the stuff: The FB velocity is quite the same (89-92 mph range) and Raudes has a better breaking ball. Also, I've been hearing this "stuff won't play at full season ball (see the scouting page here)" critic last year and here we are, he's pitching very very well. In fact, the way the team has been pushing him leads me to think that they're very high on him at least higher than this scouts you're refering to. Like many ssaid here, if you take that 7th overall credential, he won't crack the top 20.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on May 24, 2016 16:21:43 GMT -5
I think it's funny that generally, people write off the Balls, Raudes, etc of the world in their early 20s (and even teens, in Raudes case). Personally, I put on 20ish pounds of athletic weight from changing my lifting and eating habits from age 21 to age 23. Not to mention the mechanical and skill tweaks, through practiced repetition, that these players can also gain.
Patience. The Steven Wrights, Travis Shaws, JBJs, Jake Arrietas, Corey Klubers, etc., of the world sometimes do not contribute positively at the major league level until ages 25-27. Of course, many more prospects burn out. But for now lets say we have two interesting lower level arms, and hope for the best for both!
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Post by jimed14 on May 24, 2016 16:54:12 GMT -5
I think it's funny that generally, people write off the Balls, Raudes, etc of the world in their early 20s (and even teens, in Raudes case). Personally, I put on 20ish pounds of athletic weight from changing my lifting and eating habits from age 21 to age 23. Not to mention the mechanical and skill tweaks, through practiced repetition, that these players can also gain. Patience. The Steven Wrights, Travis Shaws, JBJs, Jake Arrietas, Corey Klubers, etc., of the world sometimes do not contribute positively at the major league level until ages 25-27. Of course, many more prospects burn out. But for now lets say we have two interesting lower level arms, and hope for the best for both! Yep. I went from a skinny kid with no power in high school to hitting a couple home runs a game in intramural softball in college 3-4 years later. I know it's not apples to apples, but it was pretty crazy how easy the power came when I was a few years older. And that was with my beer drinking workout program.
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