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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 23, 2016 14:20:06 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Hanley says he ”changed something in my swing.“ Declined to say what it is. We’ll have to watch for it in spring training. #RedSox” Don't want to jump off a bridge on this, but I don't really like that. I would have liked that he fixed something in his swing to get back to hitting like he did before last year, not re-inventing his swing to become a different hitter. If I had to guess, he probably put more loft in it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 24, 2016 23:37:30 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Hanley says he ”changed something in my swing.“ Declined to say what it is. We’ll have to watch for it in spring training. #RedSox” Don't want to jump off a bridge on this, but I don't really like that. I would have liked that he fixed something in his swing to get back to hitting like he did before last year, not re-inventing his swing to become a different hitter. If I had to guess, he probably put more loft in it. I'll admit, this does make it harder to banish thoughts of that shoulder injury...
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 25, 2016 12:34:29 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 25, 2016 13:10:47 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up. The only problem with this thought.....he wanted to play for the Mets and in New York. He never seemed comfortable or happy in Boston. I doubt he would have been at all interested in that deal coming here.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jan 25, 2016 13:21:02 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up. Don't think he's worth the money, even on a 1 year opt out deal. He did most of his NYM damage in a 5 week window against teams that had already folded their seasons. When it mattered, he was not a $20M per year guy. I further think the spread in stats between him and our 3 OFs will be miniscule, with two (Betts and Bradley) likely to have better numbers than him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2016 13:31:58 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up. The Red Sox payroll is up around 200 million as they added Price and Kimbrel to the payroll. I don't think they want to exceed the luxury tax threshold by THAT much adding another $25 million to the payroll. The Red Sox are probably saving another $5 - $10 million for deals by the Aug 1st deadline. I'm also not sure he fit well with the organization. Wasn't there some friction that was going on? Don't know if it's relevant anymore. I think it had with him not wanting to play RF or not wanting to practice playing The Wall and I think it was Arnie Beyelor who had issues with him? I don't know that he liked his time in Boston. The Sox certainly dealt him pretty quickly - to Dombrowski of course. With Rusney around the Sox would be paying $35 million/year for the LF position, and then there's the possibility when Benintendi coming up that Cespedes could have a subpar year and not take the opt out.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 25, 2016 14:07:38 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up. Don't think he's worth the money, even on a 1 year opt out deal. He did most of his NYM damage in a 5 week window against teams that had already folded their seasons. When it mattered, he was not a $20M per year guy. I further think the spread in stats between him and our 3 OFs will be miniscule, with two (Betts and Bradley) likely to have better numbers than him. I didn't mean we should have, only could have. I know that's a fine line of thinking. I suppose DD had a pretty good pulse about his time in Detroit. He probably saw something he didn't like, or the $$/years didn't make sense. Either way, I'm glad we didn't sign him. Felt like Carl Crawford light when he was here.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 25, 2016 14:46:29 GMT -5
Was anyone else surprised Cespedes signed for 3/75 1 yr opt out? Essentially a pillow deal for 1/25. I'm sure we could have at least matched that if not exceeded it without blocking our future prospects coming up. Don't think he's worth the money, even on a 1 year opt out deal. He did most of his NYM damage in a 5 week window against teams that had already folded their seasons. When it mattered, he was not a $20M per year guy. I further think the spread in stats between him and our 3 OFs will be miniscule, with two (Betts and Bradley) likely to have better numbers than him. Do you mean Betts and Bradley will each outperform Yoenis, or they will combined? Because I agree I'd rather have Mookie's offense than Cespedes's, but Bradley isn't gonna be a better hitter than him.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jan 25, 2016 14:55:41 GMT -5
Don't think he's worth the money, even on a 1 year opt out deal. He did most of his NYM damage in a 5 week window against teams that had already folded their seasons. When it mattered, he was not a $20M per year guy. I further think the spread in stats between him and our 3 OFs will be miniscule, with two (Betts and Bradley) likely to have better numbers than him. Do you mean Betts and Bradley will each outperform Yoenis, or they will combined? Because I agree I'd rather have Mookie's offense than Cespedes's, but Bradley isn't gonna be a better hitter than him. I'm comfortable predicting Bradley has a higher WAR at year end than Cespedes. Betts is a no brainer to have more WAR than Yeonis. Truthfully, the only thing that causes me pause on this prediction is the high number of crappy NL teams. Cespedes is Babe Ruth like against drek pitching, but he's just so so against good pitching.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,843
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Post by nomar on Jan 25, 2016 19:01:22 GMT -5
If Cespedes keeps his LD rate up like he did in the second half, he could have just as good of a season as Mookie. He was very good last year.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 25, 2016 19:10:37 GMT -5
I think it's far more likely Cespedes reverts to a 3-4 WAR player than the 6-7 guy from last year.
60 pts higher in ISO from 14-15, 40 higher than his current career avg 30 pts higher BABIP, 20 higher than current career avg 90 pts higher SLG, 60 higher than current career avg HR rate nearly doubled
His defense also went from 15th defensively among qualified outfielders to 7th, 32nd to 9th among OF's with 400+ PA, though not playing him in CF should help keep up some of his defensive improvements
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Post by telson13 on Jan 25, 2016 19:40:25 GMT -5
Don't think he's worth the money, even on a 1 year opt out deal. He did most of his NYM damage in a 5 week window against teams that had already folded their seasons. When it mattered, he was not a $20M per year guy. I further think the spread in stats between him and our 3 OFs will be miniscule, with two (Betts and Bradley) likely to have better numbers than him. Do you mean Betts and Bradley will each outperform Yoenis, or they will combined? Because I agree I'd rather have Mookie's offense than Cespedes's, but Bradley isn't gonna be a better hitter than him. Actually, JBJ's half-season last year compares favorably to Cespedes's first few seasons, at a similar age. You are probably right, but I would not be the least bit surprised if you weren't.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 26, 2016 11:46:49 GMT -5
I believe the whole thought process was to replace Castillo in LF with Cespedes. Not to replace Betts or Bradley. I know 2 or our 3 OF'ers may replicate Cespedes' WAR #'s, but the OTHER outfielder will probably not.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 26, 2016 12:01:12 GMT -5
I believe the whole thought process was to replace Castillo in LF with Cespedes. Not to replace Betts or Bradley. I know 2 or our 3 OF'ers may replicate Cespedes' WAR #'s, but the OTHER outfielder will probably not. And then the rest of the thought process was that is way too expensive for too small of an upgrade with the risk that you're stuck with him underperforming while Benintendi and Moncada are ready.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jan 26, 2016 12:56:20 GMT -5
I believe the whole thought process was to replace Castillo in LF with Cespedes. Not to replace Betts or Bradley. I know 2 or our 3 OF'ers may replicate Cespedes' WAR #'s, but the OTHER outfielder will probably not. And then the rest of the thought process was that is way too expensive for too small of an upgrade with the risk that you're stuck with him underperforming while Benintendi and Moncada are ready. Exactly. Miniscule gain at tremendous cost.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 26, 2016 14:50:14 GMT -5
I actually will not be surprised, if Cespedes regresses greatly off that 2 months he had with the Mets. I actually like the Mets. But I'm not sold on his consistency over a year. His tools are outstanding, but he just leaves me wondering how much effort he will put out day after day. Maybe it's the Beyler relationship, I just think he is not worth $27 million he is being paid this year, etc.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 26, 2016 15:42:38 GMT -5
I actually will not be surprised, if Cespedes regresses greatly off that 2 months he had with the Mets. I actually like the Mets. But I'm not sold on his consistency over a year. His tools are outstanding, but he just leaves me wondering how much effort he will put out day after day. Maybe it's the Beyler relationship, I just think he is not worth $27 million he is being paid this year, etc. He must have a lot of confidence in himself to turn down 100 mil from Wash & take 75 mil from the Mets. I, too, think he'll regress some, & if he does, he would have left 25 mil on the table. That said, he can still make a buck after 3 years if he maintains some degree of production.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,843
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Post by nomar on Jan 26, 2016 17:23:28 GMT -5
I actually will not be surprised, if Cespedes regresses greatly off that 2 months he had with the Mets. I actually like the Mets. But I'm not sold on his consistency over a year. His tools are outstanding, but he just leaves me wondering how much effort he will put out day after day. Maybe it's the Beyler relationship, I just think he is not worth $27 million he is being paid this year, etc. He must have a lot of confidence in himself to turn down 100 mil from Wash & take 75 mil from the Mets. I, too, think he'll regress some, & if he does, he would have left 25 mil on the table. That said, he can still make a buck after 3 years if he maintains some degree of production. Im pretty sure he just wants that 27.5M this year and then to become a free agent again and be offered $100M again.
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Post by kman22 on Jan 27, 2016 0:08:40 GMT -5
He must have a lot of confidence in himself to turn down 100 mil from Wash & take 75 mil from the Mets. I, too, think he'll regress some, & if he does, he would have left 25 mil on the table. That said, he can still make a buck after 3 years if he maintains some degree of production. Im pretty sure he just wants that 27.5M this year and then to become a free agent again and be offered $100M again. If his only $100M offer this year was with major deferred money, how well will he have to perform to get a better offer next year, when he is 1 year old and likely to be saddled with the qualifying offer?
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Post by telson13 on Jan 27, 2016 0:20:05 GMT -5
Im pretty sure he just wants that 27.5M this year and then to become a free agent again and be offered $100M again. If his only $100M offer this year was with major deferred money, how well will he have to perform to get a better offer next year, when he is 1 year old and likely to be saddled with the qualifying offer? I was thinking the same thing. I'm guessing he'd need to show above-average defense and numbers similar to, or better than last year. He's basically have to prove that last year was his new normal and not a fluke, and even then, with a QO attached and a year older...seems like a pipe dream to me.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 27, 2016 10:44:27 GMT -5
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 27, 2016 11:19:26 GMT -5
Hurts just to look at. That said, even the best 1st basemen have probably done that at one time in practice. I jut hope (& pray) that he has some inner pride to make him a serviceable defender.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 27, 2016 18:30:28 GMT -5
I think it's far more likely Cespedes reverts to a 3-4 WAR player than the 6-7 guy from last year. 60 pts higher in ISO from 14-15, 40 higher than his current career avg 30 pts higher BABIP, 20 higher than current career avg 90 pts higher SLG, 60 higher than current career avg HR rate nearly doubled His defense also went from 15th defensively among qualified outfielders to 7th, 32nd to 9th among OF's with 400+ PA, though not playing him in CF should help keep up some of his defensive improvements It's quite possible some of the hitting improvement is for real, based on an improved approach from coaching. When we got him I immediately noted that he had been hugely better in his career with RISP, and I remember diving down into the data and seeing a pattern that suggested that without RISP he was selling out for extra power, with bad results. I thought that someday some coach would convince him to just try to knock in an imaginary runner from 2B whenever there wasn't one actually there, rather than trying to go yard. And now, in real time, let's check those splits for last year ... With the Tigers he was .323 / .366 / .566 with RISP, but .283 / .308 / .487 without. Exactly like his career splits, which have been really consistent year-to-year. In fact, when the Sox got him in 2014, he had had the same splits with the A's (.291 / .351 / .513 with RISP, .241 / .282 / .443 without), and was even worse with us (.344 / .368 / .541 with RISP, .236 / .262 / .371 without). Wow. With the Mets he had no split at all. In fact, it was a bit backwards. .291 / .355 / .545 with RISP, .286 / .332 / .623 without RISP. IOW, none of his improvement with the Mets was with RISP; it was all from a massive improvement without RISP. Now, if I'm right, and the Mets' analytics department spotted this (yup, and Ben's guys missed it) and their hitting coaches got him to change his approach ... if you were Cespedes, a one-year contract specifically with the Mets is precisely what you would want to establish that you were for real.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 28, 2016 8:25:02 GMT -5
Matt: Hey Dave, what are the types of moves the Braves should try to complete to finish off the rebuild? Something like Teheran for Benintendi, Brian Johnson, and Vazquez? 12:13 Dave Cameron: Well, sure, if they could trade a mediocre pitcher for an insane package of talent in return, they should do that. But the Red Sox would have to mix heroin and cocaine with some pop rocks and dr pepper in order to agree to that.
Not super relevant anymore, but funny.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 28, 2016 11:27:09 GMT -5
Not sure if this was discussed elsewhere, but with Vazquez getting a lot of value from pitch framing, I thought this was interesting: The Beginning of the End for Pitch Framing?. Snippet: Not sure I agree with the article, but I do think that it'd be natural for a new stat like this to undergo some significant volatility, especially since it's based on subjective actions by umpires.
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