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Post by 07redsox on Aug 9, 2015 16:34:03 GMT -5
I also see little or no markers of the sort of mechanics that indicate elbow stress, and the velo seems easy and relatively low-effort. I will defer to any expert who says he has a little bit of elbow stress in his delivery, however. Double however, the cause of the recent epidemic of TJ surgery is very well understood -- so well understood that Smoltz made it the topic of the end of his induction speech. And it has nothing to do with mechanics. Young HS pitchers pitch year-round now, going to multiple showcases in order to enhance their draft ranking and college offers. It's patently insane, but I imagine the showcases are profitable to those who run them, and until very recently, despite warnings by doctors, kids felt they were unable to risk not participating. Now that the causal link was been established (which is to say, now that the medical warnings have proven to be accurate), MLB teams (and perhaps colleges) are starting to put a value on kids who have avoided pitching year-round. Obviously, none of this applies to Latino pitchers. I don't have the time, but maybe someone else can hunt down the online database of TJ surgery, and if it's up-to-date, can verify that the recent upsurge in young pitchers needing TJ has only happened to U.S. kids. Going back to Espinoza, if he does have a delivery with a little stress, he may be looking at possible TJ surgery in his 30's, like most of the pitchers in MLB. It would only be a warning sign for imminent surgery if he had been abused like the stateside kids. Kids throw less now than they did in the 60's or 70's. Yes the show cases and organized ball are more intense. I think from past posts you are my age or older. We played catch, grounders, BP, most days. No pitch counts in the organized play. I played center for a kid that pitched 14 innings and had to be over 160 pitches one game. Can't happen today. We also did winter indoor clinics every sat. Kids absolutely throw a lot more now than you seem to be giving them credit for. While I cant personally comment on the 60's and 70's, I can comment on the current young players and it is pretty much a year long sport for them. My brother pitched at a D-1 school about two years ago (ended up partially tearing his labrum, but that's a different story) and its a year long thing. These kids start practicing end of summer/beginning of fall semester for games that don't begin for months. This doesn't even account for all the training these kids are supposed to go through during the 1-2 months they actually do have free from mid-late summer. It wasn't as intense during highschool as college, it was still a ton of work for a kid that age. While the actually pitch counts are monitored in the game today for younger players, I feel that they are still putting a ton of stress on their arms the rest of the year as well. In my opinion, that's the real problem and cause of all these TJ surgeries. Edit- Forgot to mention that while he was at a D-1 school, it was still near the mid to back end of D-1. I can only imagine what the top schools young players are expected to go through knowing what I know about the experience of my brother.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 9, 2015 16:41:34 GMT -5
I'm not trying to take anything away from the players today. I'm saying kids threw more in the 60's and 70's.
I mentioned it in the past. but my nephew plays college ball. He had tommy john 2 years ago and lost a free ride and the pro scouts went by by. I understand todays game. He goes to the showcases and works out year round. Nothing close to what his dad and I did. We just didn't have as many witnesses.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2015 16:51:37 GMT -5
I'm not trying to take anything away from the players today. I'm saying kids threw more in the 60's and 70's. Kids in general, maybe. Kids who grow up to be MLB pitchers, probably not.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 9, 2015 16:54:30 GMT -5
I'm not trying to take anything away from the players today. I'm saying kids threw more in the 60's and 70's. Kids in general, maybe. Kids who grow up to be MLB pitchers, probably not. I think this is wrong Fenway. Read what Blyleven, Gibson, and other old pitchers have to say. I looked up a few more, Gibson, and Koufax. Didn't look him up but add Nolan Ryan.From recent interviews and public comments. Gibson says he threw 180 pitches in a game as a youth. Can't find when he was talking about. countingpitches.com/2012/08/25/bob-gibson-thinks-pitch-counts-are-ridiculous/Gibson says he threw 197 pitches in a pro game and averaged 130. Sounds high to me. The stat guys can look it up. I've had my say. Thank you.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2015 17:18:11 GMT -5
I also see little or no markers of the sort of mechanics that indicate elbow stress, and the velo seems easy and relatively low-effort. I will defer to any expert who says he has a little bit of elbow stress in his delivery, however. Double however, the cause of the recent epidemic of TJ surgery is very well understood -- so well understood that Smoltz made it the topic of the end of his induction speech. And it has nothing to do with mechanics. Young HS pitchers pitch year-round now, going to multiple showcases in order to enhance their draft ranking and college offers. It's patently insane, but I imagine the showcases are profitable to those who run them, and until very recently, despite warnings by doctors, kids felt they were unable to risk not participating. Now that the causal link was been established (which is to say, now that the medical warnings have proven to be accurate), MLB teams (and perhaps colleges) are starting to put a value on kids who have avoided pitching year-round. Obviously, none of this applies to Latino pitchers. I don't have the time, but maybe someone else can hunt down the online database of TJ surgery, and if it's up-to-date, can verify that the recent upsurge in young pitchers needing TJ has only happened to U.S. kids. Going back to Espinoza, if he does have a delivery with a little stress, he may be looking at possible TJ surgery in his 30's, like most of the pitchers in MLB. It would only be a warning sign for imminent surgery if he had been abused like the stateside kids. Kids throw less now than they did in the 60's or 70's. Yes the show cases and organized ball are more intense. I think from past posts you are my age or older. We played catch, grounders, BP, most days. No pitch counts in the organized play. I played center for a kid that pitched 14 innings and had to be over 160 pitches one game. Can't happen today. We also did winter indoor clinics every sat. Yes, kid pitchers used to do a lot more of what would be classified nowadays as long toss, which is probably good. It's the year-round intense competitive pitching that's causing the problem.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 9, 2015 17:22:09 GMT -5
Kids throw less now than they did in the 60's or 70's. Yes the show cases and organized ball are more intense. I think from past posts you are my age or older. We played catch, grounders, BP, most days. No pitch counts in the organized play. I played center for a kid that pitched 14 innings and had to be over 160 pitches one game. Can't happen today. We also did winter indoor clinics every sat. Yes, kid pitchers used to do a lot more of what would be classified nowadays as long toss, which is probably good. It's the year-round intense competitive pitching that's causing the problem. Fair enough. I have an honest question. What level did you play to? I shouldn't say fair enough, it's a solid point.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2015 17:47:33 GMT -5
There was also no such thing as exclusive pitchers back then in my experience. When the pitchers were changed, they didn't even warm up, he moved from whatever position he was playing. That was even the case in high school.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 9, 2015 18:59:38 GMT -5
People need to inform themselves. There are dozens of guys who could not take the stress from the innings they pitched, with their careers either petering out or never reaching their full potential. Pointing out the ones who did go through the sieve is winner's bias with those other guys being ignored. One example, there are so many: The best pitcher on the 1975 and 1976 Angels teams wasn't Nolan Ryan, not by a long shot. It was a 21 and 22 year-old Frank Tanana. But the team insisted on sticking 750 1321 innings on that arm by age 24. He was done as a power pitcher after that. While he went on to rack up almost 160 more wins, largely on guile, that was a HOF career shot to hell. That is if you believe Don Drysdale, then the Angles color man. He couldn't get enough of Tanana while Ryan drove him bats**t. The majors just burned through a lot of guys back then, shuffle them in, shuffle them out, till they found those magic arms. It wasn't till players started being properly valued, thanks to Marvin Miller - another HOF candidate in my opinion - that management started paying the proper attention to the talent. Let them throw all those pitches and see what happens to those multi-million dollar arms? There's a lot more reluctance to do that.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 9, 2015 19:02:48 GMT -5
People need to inform themselves. There are dozens of guys who could not take the stress from the innings they pitched, with their careers either petering out or never reaching their full potential. Pointing out the ones who did go through the sieve is winner's bias with those other guys being ignored. One example, there are so many: The best pitcher on the 1975 and 1976 Angels teams wasn't Nolan Ryan, not by a long shot. It was a 21 and 22 year-old Frank Tanana. But the team insisted on sticking 750 innings on that arm by age 24. He was done as a power pitcher after that. While he went on to rack up almost 160 more wins, largely on guile, that was a HOF career shot to hell. That is if you believe Don Drysdale, then the Angles color man. He couldn't get enough of Tanana while Ryan drove him bats**t. The majors just burned through a lot of guys back then, shuffle them in, shuffle them out, till they found those magic arms. It wasn't till players started being properly valued, thanks to Marvin Miller - another HOF candidate in my opinion - that management started paying the proper attention to the talent. Let them throw all those pitches and see what happens to those multi-million dollar arms? There's a lot more reluctance to do that. What's that got to do with the current discussion ?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 21:07:07 GMT -5
I have two grand nephews who may be baseball phenoms. They play on traveling teams that go all over the East, and during the winter, they play in indoor facilities. Basically, they are playing all year round and one just turned 13 and the other is two years younger. They are part of a family tradition I started of being fanatical Red Sox fans.
I remember Pedro Martinez saying that when he was a kid he threw all the time, and almost all fastballs. He said all the kids of his generation in the Dominican did that. He thought it strengthened his arm.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 10, 2015 0:20:21 GMT -5
People need to inform themselves. There are dozens of guys who could not take the stress from the innings they pitched, with their careers either petering out or never reaching their full potential. Pointing out the ones who did go through the sieve is winner's bias with those other guys being ignored. One example, there are so many: The best pitcher on the 1975 and 1976 Angels teams wasn't Nolan Ryan, not by a long shot. It was a 21 and 22 year-old Frank Tanana. But the team insisted on sticking 750 innings on that arm by age 24. He was done as a power pitcher after that. While he went on to rack up almost 160 more wins, largely on guile, that was a HOF career shot to hell. That is if you believe Don Drysdale, then the Angles color man. He couldn't get enough of Tanana while Ryan drove him bats**t. The majors just burned through a lot of guys back then, shuffle them in, shuffle them out, till they found those magic arms. It wasn't till players started being properly valued, thanks to Marvin Miller - another HOF candidate in my opinion - that management started paying the proper attention to the talent. Let them throw all those pitches and see what happens to those multi-million dollar arms? There's a lot more reluctance to do that. What's that got to do with the current discussion ? This. The implication is that becoming a good pitcher means throwing a lot of pitches, because that's what some of the best did. My statement was only to point out that there were some damn fine ballplayers who threw a lot of pitches and were never the same.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 10, 2015 1:34:18 GMT -5
I don't have much to say on the James Andrew stuff, because it's just depressing. What I do have to say is, I hope the Red Sox move quickly, not rush but move him quickly because what seems obvious is the guy that throws hard in their early twenties, lose that velocity in their mid to late twenties. There's so many examples I know all of you well versed baseball fans know what I'm talking about. I just don't want to see espinoza have to prove himself more than once at Portland, OR in Pawtucket, and then he's in the league at 24, 25. If he has the stuff I'd like to see him up here at 20, 21 and let the stuff play.
I can't comment much on his command, but his control is there, and with that mix of pitches and that fastball one would have to think he would experience some measure of success early at the big league level and build on that as it goes. Just my $0.02 on him moving quickly
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 10, 2015 6:36:53 GMT -5
I don't have much to say on the James Andrew stuff, because it's just depressing. What I do have to say is, I hope the Red Sox move quickly, not rush but move him quickly because what seems obvious is the guy that throws hard in their early twenties, lose that velocity in their mid to late twenties. There's so many examples I know all of you well versed baseball fans know what I'm talking about. I just don't want to see espinoza have to prove himself more than once at Portland, OR in Pawtucket, and then he's in the league at 24, 25. If he has the stuff I'd like to see him up here at 20, 21 and let the stuff play. I can't comment much on his command, but his control is there, and with that mix of pitches and that fastball one would have to think he would experience some measure of success early at the big league level and build on that as it goes. Just my $0.02 on him moving quickly He's primed to start next year in Greenville, hopefully that does come to fruition. If it does, and things go well, it's not hard to see him spend 3 years to go through 4 levels of the minors, which would put him up in the majors for his age 21 season, and potentially even sooner in a best case scenario. If he's not up until 24, something's gone wrong with his development - the Red Sox aren't going to keep down a potential ace who is performing in the high minors.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2015 7:33:57 GMT -5
Agree, if Espinoza looks like an ace, it's better to let him develop in the majors when he's "only" pitching like a #3 or 4. They only have so many pitches in them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2015 9:42:55 GMT -5
Kids in general, maybe. Kids who grow up to be MLB pitchers, probably not. I think this is wrong Fenway. Read what Blyleven, Gibson, and other old pitchers have to say. I looked up a few more, Gibson, and Koufax. Didn't look him up but add Nolan Ryan.From recent interviews and public comments. Gibson says he threw 180 pitches in a game as a youth. Can't find when he was talking about. countingpitches.com/2012/08/25/bob-gibson-thinks-pitch-counts-are-ridiculous/Gibson says he threw 197 pitches in a pro game and averaged 130. Sounds high to me. The stat guys can look it up. I've had my say. Thank you. You've got an insane selection bias happening here. There was no Baseball America in their day, no one to watch the prospects, give them hype, and then watch as their careers were derailed by injury. But I do know that in the early days of Baseball America's prospect ranking, literally 19 out of 20 (more or less) top 10 pitching prospects suffered career-altering injuries. If I have the time, I'll find the Excel file on my hard drive with that study. The exception, BTW, was a guy who was so slight of build and yet threw so hard that his team decided he was too fragile to give quite the insane workload that his peers were suffering. They eventually traded him for a second baseman.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2015 9:45:47 GMT -5
I don't have much to say on the James Andrew stuff, because it's just depressing. What I do have to say is, I hope the Red Sox move quickly, not rush but move him quickly because what seems obvious is the guy that throws hard in their early twenties, lose that velocity in their mid to late twenties. There's so many examples I know all of you well versed baseball fans know what I'm talking about. I just don't want to see espinoza have to prove himself more than once at Portland, OR in Pawtucket, and then he's in the league at 24, 25. If he has the stuff I'd like to see him up here at 20, 21 and let the stuff play. I can't comment much on his command, but his control is there, and with that mix of pitches and that fastball one would have to think he would experience some measure of success early at the big league level and build on that as it goes. Just my $0.02 on him moving quickly I'm going to go put on a limb and say he makes his debut in 2017, at age 19.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2015 11:11:33 GMT -5
That's probably the perfect-world projection, yeah. Greenville and Salem in 2016, placed in Portland in 2017 and dominates. Easier said than done but certainly not crazy.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2015 11:21:24 GMT -5
I don't have much to say on the James Andrew stuff, because it's just depressing. What I do have to say is, I hope the Red Sox move quickly, not rush but move him quickly because what seems obvious is the guy that throws hard in their early twenties, lose that velocity in their mid to late twenties. There's so many examples I know all of you well versed baseball fans know what I'm talking about. I just don't want to see espinoza have to prove himself more than once at Portland, OR in Pawtucket, and then he's in the league at 24, 25. If he has the stuff I'd like to see him up here at 20, 21 and let the stuff play. I can't comment much on his command, but his control is there, and with that mix of pitches and that fastball one would have to think he would experience some measure of success early at the big league level and build on that as it goes. Just my $0.02 on him moving quickly I'm going to go put on a limb and say he makes his debut in 2017, at age 19. That puts him on the same track as Urias. I also expect he'll be ranked in the top 5 by next year (by the end).
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Post by fan on Aug 10, 2015 12:03:31 GMT -5
I live ten minutes from Jet-Blue. I have gotten to know Andy Espinoza. This young man speaks great English, and is mature, way beyond his years. He is the future of the Sox, his location is very good, he changes speeds on his FB --highest number I have seen is 98 mph, and his uncle Charlie is to die for. With his open personality, Boston is going to love him. ------ Another name you may want to jot-down is; RHP-Nicaraguan,Roniel Raudes, he will be 18 in Jan.He has not been here long, I am just getting to know him. He is not an Andy yet, but he sure has possibility.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 10, 2015 12:45:40 GMT -5
Perhaps 2017 as an ETA is getting a little ahead of ourselves but then again if you can pitch you can pitch. Hitters need to see better pitching, get their reps in and progress but once you can control your fastball and spin your breaking ball it moves the same vs. a A baller as it does vs. an MLBer. If this is the case very soon with Espinoza then his time in the minors probably becomes more about building arm strength and building innings.
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Post by telluricrook on Aug 10, 2015 13:26:43 GMT -5
Guys this is the gulf coast league. How many times have we seen pitchers dominate down there and then not even show any promise in the SAL? Wait until he gets some starts in greenville and then we should have these conversations.
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Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Aug 10, 2015 13:32:41 GMT -5
People need to inform themselves. There are dozens of guys who could not take the stress from the innings they pitched, with their careers either petering out or never reaching their full potential. Pointing out the ones who did go through the sieve is winner's bias with those other guys being ignored. One example, there are so many: The best pitcher on the 1975 and 1976 Angels teams wasn't Nolan Ryan, not by a long shot. It was a 21 and 22 year-old Frank Tanana. But the team insisted on sticking 750 innings on that arm by age 24. He was done as a power pitcher after that. While he went on to rack up almost 160 more wins, largely on guile, that was a HOF career shot to hell. That is if you believe Don Drysdale, then the Angles color man. He couldn't get enough of Tanana while Ryan drove him bats**t. The majors just burned through a lot of guys back then, shuffle them in, shuffle them out, till they found those magic arms. It wasn't till players started being properly valued, thanks to Marvin Miller - another HOF candidate in my opinion - that management started paying the proper attention to the talent. Let them throw all those pitches and see what happens to those multi-million dollar arms? There's a lot more reluctance to do that. What's that got to do with the current discussion ? In the old days we'd often read in the Sunday notes about a hot pitching prospect in Elmira, Winston-Salem or Bristol. A year or two later you tried to find info about that player you'd often hear that "he blew out his elbow", or "he had a bum shoulder" or the more generic "his arm is shot." Remember, Tommy John and Dr. Andrew created and made famous a surgical procedure, but that injury and many others are as old as baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2015 13:39:35 GMT -5
Guys this is the gulf coast league. How many times have we seen pitchers dominate down there and then not even show any promise in the SAL? Wait until he gets some starts in greenville and then we should have these conversations. Pitchers who have been scouted to have 3 plus to better pitches and hitting 98 with excellent control and an easy delivery? Not often.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 10, 2015 13:40:36 GMT -5
Guys this is the gulf coast league. How many times have we seen pitchers dominate down there and then not even show any promise in the SAL? Wait until he gets some starts in greenville and then we should have these conversations. FYI, the hype is based on scouting reports, not stats. There's a reason he has a ton of helium while, say, Kevin Steen was arguably statistically better before being promoted but just kind of noticed (that the latter sits in the high 80s is part of it, of course, but case-in-point).
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Post by telluricrook on Aug 10, 2015 14:29:49 GMT -5
I hate to be evil but What is everyone going to do when Dr. James andrews is not going to be around to repair all these knees and elbows? He is getting old. Like if sports medicine was a sport he's probably the Michael Jordan of it.
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