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Thinking up a Bogaerts extension
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 13:21:01 GMT -5
Yeah, I'd be good with that, which is about half of what you were calling the Red Sox stupid for not offering. I'm sorry, I don't recall using the word "stupid" but I was typing while on a plane so maybe my text looked bumpy down on earth. More than anything I was trying to figure out what Boras would ask and what the walk away number - the amount below which Boras advises Xander to walk away from the deal - would be.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2015 13:29:58 GMT -5
I wouldn't extend him until he starts hitting for power. His BABIP is unsustainable in all likelihood, so he's going to need to be to start walking and slugging more if he really wants to become a star. I'm not giving him a trout type deal until more of this starts flashing in games.
And some are overthinking the Boras factor, like always.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2015 13:34:01 GMT -5
Ok, then. My only quibble with this is Cargo reportedly wanted to stay with Colorado. But otherwise sound. So given that it could cost you anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30 would y'all do it? I would probably wait one more year and risk the shorter term or higher AAV, given these parameters. Xander is my favorite young player, because he plays the SS position, but one more year is probably not going to sway this decision one way or another for either side.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 8, 2015 13:35:14 GMT -5
I'm not worried about Boras. He'll be 68 by the time Xander can be a free agent. He'll buy Cuba and run off with some of Guidas's models before then.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2015 13:38:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't extend him until he starts hitting for power. His BABIP is unsustainable in all likelihood, so he's going to need to be to start walking and slugging more if he really wants to become a star. I'm not giving him a trout type deal until more of this starts flashing in games. And some are overthinking the Boras factor, like always. He hit 12 home runs last year, while apparently not knowing what he was doing at all. He has hit less this year because his has changed his approach. He hit a 420 foot bomb in Yankee Stadium during his Sept 2013 call up. The power is there and I am sure he can and will hit 20-25 home runs a year when the time for that comes.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 13:52:13 GMT -5
I wouldn't extend him until he starts hitting for power. His BABIP is unsustainable in all likelihood, so he's going to need to be to start walking and slugging more if he really wants to become a star. I'm not giving him a trout type deal until more of this starts flashing in games. And some are overthinking the Boras factor, like always. He hit 12 home runs last year, while apparently not knowing what he was doing at all. He has hit less this year because his has changed his approach. He hit a 420 foot bomb in Yankee Stadium during his Sept 2013 call up. The power is there and I am sure he can and will hit 20-25 home runs a year when the time for that comes. Sure, but it still requires a little projection. It's the same dynamic with the Porcello extension-- he's done one thing in one year and another thing in another year, but has yet to put it all together (in Porcello's case, it was Ks and GBs, in Bogaerts' case, it's contact and power). Bogaerts is younger and has a better pedigree, so his odds of doing so are probably better, but there's still a significant risk that he can't combine swinging hard enough to hit his power ceiling with swinging carefully enough to avoid striking out a bunch.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 8, 2015 13:52:57 GMT -5
I don't think a 7 year 110-120 million dollar extension is unfair for either party, if they were so inclined. The problem is that the Sox have Hanny and Sandy on the books for big cash, and more than likely need to spend money on FA pitching in the near future. Oh and there's the Mookie Betts looming contract issue. The Sox have some payroll flexibility... If Bogaerts and Boras were willing to sell FA years (usually Boras prefers to hit free agency as early as possible), the Red Sox could make it happen. I especially doubt they will be spending big money on pitching. They already have Buchholz, Porcello, and Miley locked up for at least the next couple seasons, with Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens, and Kelly in the wings. Could certainly use an ace, but management hasn't been willing to spend for that in recent years.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 14:15:56 GMT -5
I'm not worried about Boras. He'll be 68 by the time Xander can be a free agent. He'll buy Cuba and run off with some of Guidas's models before then. As long as it's just some, then maybe I'll share.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2015 14:19:28 GMT -5
Sure, but it still requires a little projection. It's the same dynamic with the Porcello extension-- he's done one thing in one year and another thing in another year, but has yet to put it all together (in Porcello's case, it was Ks and GBs, in Bogaerts' case, it's contact and power). Bogaerts is younger and has a better pedigree, so his odds of doing so are probably better, but there's still a significant risk that he can't combine swinging hard enough to hit his power ceiling with swinging carefully enotugh to avoid striking out a bunch. We don't know if the change was an organizational request. There was an obvious hole in his swing and he seems to have been trying to address, with success. And he has also become a better defender, which also has taken energy and effort. I would hesitate to hold this years power numbers against him. The walks are more of a concern.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 8, 2015 16:24:17 GMT -5
I think the 10-year 240 number is high, but averaging 24-25mil in years 4(last arb year)-7 or 4-10 would probably be a pretty good deal given inflation. And it's definitely possibly that his arb years will be more like 40 mil than 20 mil (if he hits the way we hope).
There's no way Boras does a deal at 7/120, maybe 7/140. I'd rather see 10/210. I'm just not sure Guidas was as far off as everyone thought. 24mil is gonna be chump change in year 10. Or maybe it's 7/140 with an option year or two at 25 mil.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 16:27:18 GMT -5
If you consider that he'd make 20-30 million over the next 4 years without an extension, at 7/140 you're talking about $110 million for 3 years of free agency. C'mon.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 8, 2015 16:46:42 GMT -5
I would wait 2 years and see what things look like then. Yeah let's wait until he he hits 25 home runs, then it really will take 250m. Anyway, this is all pretty moot because of the Boras factor. I can maybe see it getting to his last arb year and them just giving him a market rate deal. That said, I'm not really worried about them losing Xander, even if he gets to free agency. He is exactly the kind of player they would and should outbid other teams for with a long term contract, and all things being equal they will have the advantage of him liking it here and being the team that sign him as a kid. But again, let's see what he becomes. If this it what he is, that's a very good player, and he'll get a boatlad of money, but it's not superstar level. I still think he can and will be close to something like that, which changes the equation greatly. So for now, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy watching him play and hope that one day he suddenly drops Boras to be represented by his brother.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 16:48:45 GMT -5
If you consider that he'd make 20-30 million over the next 4 years without an extension, at 7/140 you're talking about $110 million for 3 years of free agency. C'mon. Sure, but if he stayed healthy he'd almost certainly be gone once he gets that through that first Arb year as Boras will advise to ride the last 2 years out. My strong belief, just based on Boras' past maneuverings, is that if the Sox want to keep Xander, they have to reach a deal before he gets to - or just as he gets to - that first arbitration year. After that, being a star position player with this representation, he's not cutting any deals short of top dollar. May be instructive to watch how the Bryce Harper situation plays out. If you are looking for a straight-up comp, Harper is a step above Xander with more talent and present power. But he does fit the overall profile of Boras client who is a young position-playing star who could reach free agency before entering (or as he enters) his prime years. If we call Harper an 80 player, then Xander is a 70 who may have the ceiling of a 75 if the power surfaces like theorized in earlier projections. Also recall that when the idea of an extension was broached in 2013 as Harper was reaching a similar point in his career - i.e a deal that would be negotiated after his second year of service time - Boras reportedly said such a deal could happen but he wanted 12 years. So I think I'm sticking to a 10-year deal as their opener. Not saying this is what will get done, but it fits Boras' negotiating profile. Added: Link for Boras' 2013 comments about a 12-year deal: www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/23350716/scott-boras-has-a-12year-contract-for-bryce-harper-on-his-mind
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2015 16:54:20 GMT -5
If you consider that he'd make 20-30 million over the next 4 years without an extension, at 7/140 you're talking about $110 million for 3 years of free agency. C'mon. Sure, but if he stayed healthy he'd almost certainly be gone once he gets that through that first Arb year as Boras will advise to ride the last 2 years out. My strong belief, just based on Boras' past maneuverings, is that if the Sox want to keep Xander, they have to reach a deal before he gets to - or just as he gets to - Arbitration. After that, being a star position player with this representation, he's not cutting any deals short of top dollar.May be instructive to watch how the Bryce Harper situation plays out. If you are looking for a straight-up comp, Harper is a step above Xander with more talent and present power. But he does fit the overall profile of Boras client who is a young position-playing star who could reach free agency before entering (or as he enters) his prime years. If we call Harper an 80 player, then Xander is a 70 who may have the ceiling of a 75 if the power surfaces like theorized in earlier projections. Also recall that when the idea of an extension was broached in 2013 as Harper was reaching a similar point in his career - i.e a deal that would be negotiated after his second year of service time - Boras reportedly said such a deal could happen but he wanted 12 years. So I think I'm sticking to a 10-year deal as their opener. Not saying this is what will get done, but it fits Boras' negotiating profile. So you're arguing that the Red Sox have to pay more than any other team? No team is going to give Xander $37 million a year in free agency. Why should the Red Sox have to? Why should they? And he is not Harper. Harper is younger and has 5.6 fWAR already this year, which is 3.3 more than Xander. Then there is also the risk. Maybe Xander becomes a consistent 5+ WAR player. Or maybe this season is mainly driven by his absurdly high BABIP which will never be duplicated again.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 8, 2015 17:05:34 GMT -5
If you consider that he'd make 20-30 million over the next 4 years without an extension, at 7/140 you're talking about $110 million for 3 years of free agency. C'mon. Sure, but if he stayed healthy he'd almost certainly be gone once he gets that through that first Arb year as Boras will advise to ride the last 2 years out. Why does that he mean he'd be gone, though? I agree there's little chance of him not getting to free agency, but are people under the impression that because the Red Sox didn't want to pay through the nose for Ellsbury and Lester's decline years that if they have a home grown, up the middle stud who's entering free agency at age 26 that they wouldn't give him an 8+ year deal? Or that they couldn't? That is exactly the kind of player you give massive, long term contracts to, and while LAD and NYY may technically have more money the Red Sox are not the Kansas City Royals, they wouldn't let him go without a fight.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 17:48:57 GMT -5
Sure, but if he stayed healthy he'd almost certainly be gone once he gets that through that first Arb year as Boras will advise to ride the last 2 years out. My strong belief, just based on Boras' past maneuverings, is that if the Sox want to keep Xander, they have to reach a deal before he gets to - or just as he gets to - Arbitration. After that, being a star position player with this representation, he's not cutting any deals short of top dollar.May be instructive to watch how the Bryce Harper situation plays out. If you are looking for a straight-up comp, Harper is a step above Xander with more talent and present power. But he does fit the overall profile of Boras client who is a young position-playing star who could reach free agency before entering (or as he enters) his prime years. If we call Harper an 80 player, then Xander is a 70 who may have the ceiling of a 75 if the power surfaces like theorized in earlier projections. Also recall that when the idea of an extension was broached in 2013 as Harper was reaching a similar point in his career - i.e a deal that would be negotiated after his second year of service time - Boras reportedly said such a deal could happen but he wanted 12 years. So I think I'm sticking to a 10-year deal as their opener. Not saying this is what will get done, but it fits Boras' negotiating profile. So you're arguing that the Red Sox have to pay more than any other team? No team is going to give Xander $37 million a year in free agency. Why should the Red Sox have to? Why should they? And he is not Harper. Harper is younger and has 5.6 fWAR already this year, which is 3.3 more than Xander. Then there is also the risk. Maybe Xander becomes a consistent 5+ WAR player. Or maybe this season is mainly driven by his absurdly high BABIP which will never be duplicated again. I'm arguing that IF they don't lock him up before or just after that first Arb year Boras will, in high probability, advise Xander to ride out the next two and go to free agency UNLESS they wish to pay what would be market value - so the very top of the Arb scale for a star SS in the last two years of Arb, plus top of market for any years beyond that with a set minimum number of years in the deal. This is just based on how Boras has operated in the past. So to be clear: I am NOT saying Boston SHOULD pay those rates if they fail to lock him up before that second Arb year starts. I am arguing, though, that once they pass that first Arb year point, IF they haven't extended him, and if Xander continues along this performance trajectory, then it will take a top dollar/long term Jeter-like deal (in present dollars) to keep him, based on the vast bullk of Boras' history.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 18:59:45 GMT -5
I'm arguing that IF they don't lock him up before or just after that first Arb year Boras will, in high probability, advise Xander to ride out the next two and go to free agency UNLESS they wish to pay what would be market value - so the very top of the Arb scale for a star SS in the last two years of Arb, plus top of market for any years beyond that with a set minimum number of years in the deal. This is just based on how Boras has operated in the past. So to be clear: I am NOT saying Boston SHOULD pay those rates if they fail to lock him up before that second Arb year starts. I am arguing, though, that once they pass that first Arb year point, IF they haven't extended him, and if Xander continues along this performance trajectory, then it will take a top dollar/long term Jeter-like deal (in present dollars) to keep him, based on the vast bullk of Boras' history. You seem to be implying that before his first arb year, Bogaerts might be willing to accept a below-market extension. But that directly contradicts what you said on the first page of this thread, when you rejected the idea that Bogaerts would accept a McCutchen-esque contract extension. I don't think you're really making a meaningful argument here. It seems to me like your point is just that Boras will advise his clients to only accept extensions at the top end of the market. That's not something I (or anyone else here that I've seen) disagrees with. The real questions are (a) what does top end of the market mean, both for a pre-arb extension and for an extension for a player closer to free agency and (b) whether they should attempt to negotiate a top-end-market extension now or wait to try to do so in a few years when he's closer to free agency.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2015 20:02:13 GMT -5
And I admitted perhaps overshooting the initial number, but I still believe there is potential for a bit of a discount if Xander signs before his Arb year. I think ther is no chance for that once that first arb year passes. I based my initial assessment simply on WAR values, but, after evidence from the group, realized that was misinformed. Still - and I will look for Boras' comments to this effect - I do recall him saying something paraphrased as, it makes more sense to provide a discount (although he didn't use that word) a team is willing tolock up a player before arbitation begins, and attributing that toa "money in hand situation, but he was less disposedto provide that advise to a rising star once arb began.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 8, 2015 20:06:47 GMT -5
I do recall him saying something paraphrased as, it makes more sense to provide a discount (although he didn't use that word) a team is willing tolock up a player before arbitation begins, and attributing that toa "money in hand situation, but he was less disposedto provide that advise to a rising star once arb began. Eh, my recollection is that he said it sometimes makes sense to do a long-term deal before arbitration, but he would always recommend that his clients go to free agency after their first arb year is done. I'm sure he would never even imply that it's OK to give a discount, ever.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 9, 2015 2:21:22 GMT -5
If you consider that he'd make 20-30 million over the next 4 years without an extension, at 7/140 you're talking about $110 million for 3 years of free agency. C'mon. Well, I feel it'll be 30-40 over 4 years, but I did screw up the post-arb calc. 7/120 sounds right. Might need to be 125.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 9, 2015 4:53:42 GMT -5
I'd go with Betts and an extension way before trying to approach Bogaerts and Boras, just look at what it cost Texas to get Andrus signed and he couldn't hit at all. Andrus got an opt out, *if* he learned to hit and guaranteed money if he didn't, or got hurt after year 4.
Boras isn't going to sign any extension.. Unless it's tilted way towards him. Betts is the guy they have the chance to lock up and has already proven is a solid MLB player. Right there is the legit extension target, only way Cherrington has a prayer at locking up Bogaerts is if they bring back Jair as a front office helper, then butter him up about how great he would be as Xander's agent..
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2015 15:02:11 GMT -5
Jay Bruce might be a comp as well. He had a 5.1 fWAR season in 2010 and then signed a 6 year/$51 million contract with a team option. He only had 3 years of control left instead of 4.
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Post by soxfan4life on Jul 9, 2015 17:50:06 GMT -5
Bottom line, Bogaer's agent is Scott Bor***hole and if he has his way, Bogaerts will sign a series of one year deals until he is a free agent and then go to the highest bidder.As long as there is a team out there willing to over pay like the Dodgers and Yankees that is how it will be. He as even been known to come up with "Phatom teams" to get this done. So unless he changes agents, don't hold your breath on anything getting done before he hits free agency.As much as I would love to see him stay, that is the reality of the situation.
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Post by 07redsox on Jul 9, 2015 18:43:54 GMT -5
Bottom line, Bogaer's agent is Scott Bor***hole and if he has his way, Bogaerts will sign a series of one year deals until he is a free agent and then go to the highest bidder.As long as there is a team out there willing to over pay like the Dodgers and Yankees that is how it will be. He as even been known to come up with "Phatom teams" to get this done. So unless he changes agents, don't hold your breath on anything getting done before he hits free agency.As much as I would love to see him stay, that is the reality of the situation. Bottom line, Boras works for Bogaerts, not the other way around. If he doesn't want to sign an extension to begin with then changing agents is not going to change anything.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2015 14:58:50 GMT -5
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