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Thinking up a Bogaerts extension
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2016 14:19:59 GMT -5
Which teams are dumb enough to not realize that the bubble is going to burst? It's just like buying a $1m 500 foot studio in 2007. These insanely rich people aren't rich because they're dumb. True, though some are insanely rich because they inherited it.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 16:37:03 GMT -5
Which teams are dumb enough to not realize that the bubble is going to burst? It's just like buying a $1m 500 foot studio in 2007. These insanely rich people aren't rich because they're dumb. Added - this piece from the Washington Post (last year) says NYY will have $57M committed in that off season given current contracts. Sox will have $66.5M. www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/12/12/the-2018-mlb-free-agent-class-is-going-to-be-bonkers/Of course that doesn't account for FAs and extensions between then and now but even with those numbers, say, doubled there's still a lot of "buy space" left in budgets. Also, given the so-so quality of free agents available next year, and the spreading of the wealth already noted, I wonder how many teams are already budgeting for a spree on at least one of these players in 2018. Wild, to say the least.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 7, 2016 16:42:46 GMT -5
These insanely rich people aren't rich because they're dumb. No, usually it's just a coincidence. And as far as "don't the realize the bubble is going to burst" goes? Of course they don't. If they did, it wouldn't be a bubble.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2016 9:33:00 GMT -5
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 8, 2016 15:17:25 GMT -5
Scott Boras really has no say in what a player or team wants to do. If the Yankees want to give Ellsbury a zillion dollars, that's their choice. Boras didn't force them. Also players such as Strasburg, Weaver & I'm sure others, signed extensions shortly before hitting FA. He also cost Varitek & Steven Drew millions. If Bogey WANTS an ext or hit FA asap, he will have the final say.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 8, 2016 15:46:34 GMT -5
Scott Boras really has no say in what a player or team wants to do. If the Yankees want to give Ellsbury a zillion dollars, that's their choice. Boras didn't force them. Also players such as Strasburg, Weaver & I'm sure others, signed extensions shortly before hitting FA. He also cost Varitek & Steven Drew millions. If Bogey WANTS an ext or hit FA asap, he will have the final say. My agent." Upthread discussions weigh decisions experienced entrepreneurs, investors and business executives make, both good and bad. Boras is advising teenagers and young baseball players and their families. About financial and career moves. You can bet your dinner that he has inordinate influence over those decisions. And that influence has a direct impact on the teams and fans. Isn't it possible, even likely, that many of these kids ask him "what should I do?" and listen to his answer?. When players say "I leave that stuff up to my agent" they are sincere. It seems rare that players act independently, or even have the skillets to do so. Boras knows that.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2016 16:05:29 GMT -5
Scott Boras really has no say in what a player or team wants to do. If the Yankees want to give Ellsbury a zillion dollars, that's their choice. Boras didn't force them. Also players such as Strasburg, Weaver & I'm sure others, signed extensions shortly before hitting FA. He also cost Varitek & Steven Drew millions. If Bogey WANTS an ext or hit FA asap, he will have the final say. That may be, but it's really not the point. Whether it's Xander and Boras, or Xander alone, in your positioning of it, it's all a relatively straight forward risk/reward assessment. In this case it's an assessment of an immediate reward/low risk outcome for less money than full market value for his current WAR or production - albeit, no doubt still quite a significant amount - now/this winter in an extension deal which would likely include an opportunity for a second large payday sometime after he turns 30 or 31 vs. forestalling the major immediate reward (though still being compensated increasingly well via his arbitration years) and taking the higher risk path predicated on his/his agent's belief that he will have continued success and no significant injuries for the next three years and then hitting free agency for a much greater reward likely paid out over a longer amount of time, perhaps to the end of his career. So big bucks in hand right now, plus a chance at a second payday after 30/31 OR massive bucks three years from now (barring injury or precipitous decline) and more or less guaranteeing him being with the same team for the vast bulk of his remaining career.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 8, 2016 19:52:26 GMT -5
So given that it could cost you anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30 would y'all do it? Yeah, pretty easily. I don't really see there being a better place to spend the money.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 8, 2016 21:55:39 GMT -5
Scott Boras really has no say in what a player or team wants to do. If the Yankees want to give Ellsbury a zillion dollars, that's their choice. Boras didn't force them. Also players such as Strasburg, Weaver & I'm sure others, signed extensions shortly before hitting FA. He also cost Varitek & Steven Drew millions. If Bogey WANTS an ext or hit FA asap, he will have the final say. This is really kind of silly and semantical. Yes, it's ultimately up to Bogaerts. But the very fact that he chose Boras to represent him gives you an insight into his mindset. Is it 100% with no exceptions? No, but just because a handful of Boras guys have chosen to do extensions doesn't mean that right now, given what we know, it isn't highly unlikely that Xander does so.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 8, 2016 23:17:49 GMT -5
Scott Boras really has no say in what a player or team wants to do. If the Yankees want to give Ellsbury a zillion dollars, that's their choice. Boras didn't force them. Also players such as Strasburg, Weaver & I'm sure others, signed extensions shortly before hitting FA. He also cost Varitek & Steven Drew millions. If Bogey WANTS an ext or hit FA asap, he will have the final say. This is really kind of silly and semantical. Yes, it's ultimately up to Bogaerts. But the very fact that he chose Boras to represent him gives you an insight into his mindset. Is it 100% with no exceptions? No, but just because a handful of Boras guys have chosen to do extensions doesn't mean that right now, given what we know, it isn't highly unlikely that Xander does so. I disagree. It's not semantics, it's a difference in philosophy. You seem to be making the point that players who choose Boras are by and large interested only in maximizing earnings. I think his point is that players who hire him are interested in maximizing earnings **in conjunction with their happiness/career goals**. Players who want the biggest contracts will go to FA; those who want to stay where they are still want the best contract that they can get in that situation, and having Boras acting on their behalf may do that. His job is to get the best deal *for the players' wishes*. For some, that is maximum $ only, for others there are additional considerations. The presumption that any player who hires Boras as an agent automatically falls into the first category is specious.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 9, 2016 8:05:59 GMT -5
This is really kind of silly and semantical. Yes, it's ultimately up to Bogaerts. But the very fact that he chose Boras to represent him gives you an insight into his mindset. Is it 100% with no exceptions? No, but just because a handful of Boras guys have chosen to do extensions doesn't mean that right now, given what we know, it isn't highly unlikely that Xander does so. I disagree. It's not semantics, it's a difference in philosophy. You seem to be making the point that players who choose Boras are by and large interested only in maximizing earnings. I think his point is that players who hire him are interested in maximizing earnings **in conjunction with their happiness/career goals**. Players who want the biggest contracts will go to FA; those who want to stay where they are still want the best contract that they can get in that situation, and having Boras acting on their behalf may do that. His job is to get the best deal *for the players' wishes*. For some, that is maximum $ only, for others there are additional considerations. The presumption that any player who hires Boras as an agent automatically falls into the first category is specious. You are correct in that it is the player's ultimate choice. Nevertheless, that choice will be influenced (to a lesser or greater degree) by the advice the agent gives. While we are not privy to exactly WHAT Boras advises each client (and I'm sure it varies), we have an idea what that advice more often than not leads to.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 9, 2016 8:15:12 GMT -5
These insanely rich people aren't rich because they're dumb. No, usually it's just a coincidence. And as far as "don't the realize the bubble is going to burst" goes? Of course they don't. If they did, it wouldn't be a bubble. All bubbles burst. I didn't say they know when. But they don't want a $400 million payroll when it happens so it's best to not be in that position at all.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 9, 2016 8:30:12 GMT -5
Players salaries can't rise 4-5 times the rate of inflation and economic growth forever. Something will have to give at some point. And if you had a crystal ball and could predict the year that happens, then the teams spending the most money several years leading up to that point will be the ones hurt the most by it.
With the exception of David Price the Sox have been very against long term deals, and actually willing to pay more annually to reduce duration of contracts. I often wondered if this was because there was some internal discussion about the possibility of such an event off on the horizon within the Sox front office.
One defining characteristic of a bubble is that it is generally unpredictable, yet it is within reason to predict it will happen at some point. There's usually someone in the room smart enough to see it coming before everyone else. The problem is when those voices start echoing it's hard to tell if he's smart or crazy.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 9, 2016 9:28:57 GMT -5
I may be wrong here, but I don't see Bogey in the same mold as Bryce Harper or Jose Fernandez, who you clearly don't see as signing extensions. He seems to more in the mold of a Pedroia, Trout or even Lester. He doesn't seem to be a guy who would just do what his agent tells him. He is a very intelligent young man & I believe he will do what HE wants to do either way.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 9, 2016 9:52:01 GMT -5
I may be wrong here, but I don't see Bogey in the same mold as Bryce Harper or Jose Fernandez, who you clearly don't see as signing extensions. He seems to more in the mold of a Pedroia, Trout or even Lester. He doesn't seem to be a guy who would just do what his agent tells him. He is a very intelligent young man & I believe he will do what HE wants to do either way. You think Bryce Harper is a guy who just does what his agent tells him?
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 9, 2016 10:39:45 GMT -5
His job is to get the best deal *for the players' wishes*. For some, that is maximum $ only, for others there are additional considerations. The presumption that any player who hires Boras as an agent automatically falls into the first category is specious. Which is why I literally said, "It's not 100%." But it's a pretty high percentage, and that's not specious, it's a quantifiable fact. Sorry.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 9, 2016 10:49:50 GMT -5
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 9, 2016 10:59:39 GMT -5
Huh, I wonder what could be leading to that perception?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 9, 2016 11:26:29 GMT -5
I don't know, maybe getting into a fist fight in the dugout with a teammate. Ells has too long a list to get into. Even going back to Melvin Upton, though I'm not sure if the Rays wanted to extend him, Longoria having to rip into him in the dugout for not hustling. Papelbon & some of the things he said also fits into these "perception" issues.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 9, 2016 12:02:20 GMT -5
I was being sarcastic. The perception is due entirely to Boras being their agent.
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2016 13:22:58 GMT -5
His job is to get the best deal *for the players' wishes*. For some, that is maximum $ only, for others there are additional considerations. The presumption that any player who hires Boras as an agent automatically falls into the first category is specious. Which is why I literally said, "It's not 100%." But it's a pretty high percentage, and that's not specious, it's a quantifiable fact. Sorry. Boras certainly has the reputation for taking more of his clients to free agency rather than signing extensions, but are his clients materially less likely to sign extensions than clients of other major agencies? I suspect the answer is probably yes, but by a smaller gap than you'd expect. Until you've done the math, I wouldn't be quite so confident that it's a significant factor.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 9, 2016 13:49:29 GMT -5
Varitek definitely took less money to stay with the Sox.
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Post by tookme55 on Jun 9, 2016 14:11:46 GMT -5
Predicting future is inexact science at best. Hell we couldn't even project 2015 performances for Sandoval and Ramirez. We gave the two 4/5 year deals.
I simply rather Red Sox pay out the three arbitration years and then make the best offer come FA time. Obviously you can give qualifying offer so that you get SOMETHING in return.
How many once and life time players are there anyway. This is why the focus has to be developing players internally. Sox organization has to do a better job developing pitchers. Pay as you go maybe the best policy.
Assuming Ortiz goes through with his planned retirement, we will save close to $40M between Ortiz, Buchholtz and Koji.
We are stuck with Price and Porcello for at least two and three years. Wright will become an inning eater. Rodriguez at worst should be our 4/5th starting assuming he becomes healthy.
I just hope we don't go on another spending binge and get stuck with Craig/Sandoval/Ramirez size headaches.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 9, 2016 16:36:21 GMT -5
Which is why I literally said, "It's not 100%." But it's a pretty high percentage, and that's not specious, it's a quantifiable fact. Sorry. Boras certainly has the reputation for taking more of his clients to free agency rather than signing extensions, but are his clients materially less likely to sign extensions than clients of other major agencies? I suspect the answer is probably yes, but by a smaller gap than you'd expect. Until you've done the math, I wouldn't be quite so confident that it's a significant factor. That's fine. I didn't say anything about other agencies.
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