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Thinking up a Bogaerts extension
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Post by Guidas on May 31, 2016 12:51:47 GMT -5
This is what I signed on for last year, adjusted after I erroneously surmised that Boras would look for payouts throughout the contract based on projected WAR had me calculating AAV of $23M - hey, it's a game of adjustments, right? "anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30" What say all y'all now? Does that still hold or would the market say more? Also, it will be interesting to see what Machado gets if he hits free agency, and the Sox may have waited too long if they wait for that.
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Post by burythehammer on May 31, 2016 13:31:37 GMT -5
Not even close, IMO. He's going to get well over 200 million in free agency. And Dombrowski will give it to him if he wants to stay on my good side.
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Post by okin15 on May 31, 2016 15:06:26 GMT -5
This is what I signed on for last year, adjusted after I erroneously surmised that Boras would look for payouts throughout the contract based on projected WAR had me calculating AAV of $23M - hey, it's a game of adjustments, right? "anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30" What say all y'all now? Does that still hold or would the market say more? Also, it will be interesting to see what Machado gets if he hits free agency, and the Sox may have waited too long if they wait for that. Two things, last year he had another year of control at VERY small dollars ahead of him (650k this year). Conversely, for BTH's point, if he were a free agent, he wouldn't have the de-escalators of the three years of arb. Look at how Trout's contract is scheduled, and he's making $33.5 million in each of his post arb years. That is more like the going rate for a FA Bogaerts (at least if he hit the market today.) There's also the question of how long Xander and Boras would want the contract to go. I don't know if there's a sweet spot to hit the market exactly, but likely he'd want to be in for another payday before he turns 32. Kid might be better off with a five year deal and lower AAV or even a four year plus a huge team option so that he can get REALLY paid one more time. AAV's in seven years could easily be nearing $40 million. Just one more reminder of how good Pedroia and Wakefield have been for the team over the years. ADD: It's entirely possible that Bogaerts could get $40 mil AAV in THREE years as a free agent. Not likely maybe, but if he keeps getting better, and if he's a 26-year-old super star, and on a long enough contract (where deferred money and inflation would knock down the price in "today dollars") it's entirely possible. ADD2: Sox desperately need the Yankees to sign Machado to play SS or else...
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Post by Guidas on May 31, 2016 16:36:45 GMT -5
This is what I signed on for last year, adjusted after I erroneously surmised that Boras would look for payouts throughout the contract based on projected WAR had me calculating AAV of $23M - hey, it's a game of adjustments, right? "anywhere from $120M to say, $150M to sign him now/next year until he's 30" What say all y'all now? Does that still hold or would the market say more? Also, it will be interesting to see what Machado gets if he hits free agency, and the Sox may have waited too long if they wait for that. Two things, last year he had another year of control at VERY small dollars ahead of him (650k this year). Conversely, for BTH's point, if he were a free agent, he wouldn't have the de-escalators of the three years of arb. Look at how Trout's contract is scheduled, and he's making $33.5 million in each of his post arb years. That is more like the going rate for a FA Bogaerts (at least if he hit the market today.) There's also the question of how long Xander and Boras would want the contract to go. I don't know if there's a sweet spot to hit the market exactly, but likely he'd want to be in for another payday before he turns 32. Kid might be better off with a five year deal and lower AAV or even a four year plus a huge team option so that he can get REALLY paid one more time. AAV's in seven years could easily be nearing $40 million. Just one more reminder of how good Pedroia and Wakefield have been for the team over the years. ADD: It's entirely possible that Bogaerts could get $40 mil AAV in THREE years as a free agent. Not likely maybe, but if he keeps getting better, and if he's a 26-year-old super star, and on a long enough contract (where deferred money and inflation would knock down the price in "today dollars") it's entirely possible. ADD2: Sox desperately need the Yankees to sign Machado to play SS or else... My assumption was 30/31 because he'd want another payday. Not sure what the magic number in terms of his age on that second bite of the apple but 32 may be that monster option year tacked on just in case.
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Post by jimed14 on May 31, 2016 16:40:03 GMT -5
I'm sure we're almost at the point where the biggest contracts will get opt-outs after every single season so that only the team takes on any risk and has no chance at excess value at any point.
Maybe they're better off trading him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 1, 2016 4:43:46 GMT -5
Not even close, IMO. He's going to get well over 200 million in free agency. And Dombrowski will give it to him if he wants to stay on my good side. Exactly how I look at it. So you have to wait until the last year of arbitration to actually do this deal. This is going to be a very cringy process. Probably at some point we all might never think the extension will come and he won't resign here for some reason. I want this to happen tomorrow but I also don't want the Sox to spend too much money until a lot of the Hanley, Porcello, Pablo, Castillo, and Craig contracts come off the books. This extension is going to be expensive and way too long. Xander won't be worth the money in the end but you still have to do it. The Sox won't be saving a nickel on this deal, so we should all stop expecting or hoping for this to be the case. In the end, I truly believe Xander will stay with the organization that he's been with since the age of 16. Xander truly does love Boston and Boston will pay him. No doubt about it. The real question is, when is the Mookie Betts extension coming? Mookie was the guy to extend through his less expensive years, through his arbitration years, and buy out a couple of free agency years. The Sox should of did this last off-season and maybe missed their chance at a discount imo. Betts is on pace to hit 30 or more homeruns this season. Now the more they wait, the more they will not only have to pay Xander, but Mookie also.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2016 6:33:41 GMT -5
It seems that the days of being super active in free agency might be over as all they'll be able to hopefully do is sign their own guys. That's probably a good thing.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 1, 2016 8:07:24 GMT -5
The MFY are waiting for all these guys to hit FA (Machado, Fernandez, Harper, Harvey) then Mookie & Xander & sign them all. This will replace all their positions. Headley, Didi, CC, Beltran, Gardner, A-Rod ect. They'll use cheaper guys like Bird, Refsnyder, Sanchez, Severino, ect to fill in the rest. We need to lock up our guys through age 32 then let 'em go.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 1, 2016 10:02:22 GMT -5
It seems that the days of being super active in free agency might be over as all they'll be able to hopefully do is sign their own guys. That's probably a good thing. I think they are hanging back until Beltran, Teixiera (after this year), CC and ARod (after next year) are off the books. Then they will go hard for Harper, Kershaw, Machado or Xander, and perhaps Fernandez. Or they sell the team just before that and the new owner (Dolan? Levine? Cuban?) will try to do the same.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2016 13:37:48 GMT -5
It seems that the days of being super active in free agency might be over as all they'll be able to hopefully do is sign their own guys. That's probably a good thing. I think they are hanging back until Beltran, Teixiera (after this year), CC and ARod (after next year) are off the books. Then they will go hard for Harper, Kershaw, Machado or Xander, and perhaps Fernandez. Or they sell the team just before that and the new owner (Dolan? Levine? Cuban?) will try to do the same. Let them. I don't see it at all, because they've been pretty cheap lately and you're talking about an insane amount of money. I think they'll sell in the next few years.
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Post by telluricrook on Jun 1, 2016 14:37:06 GMT -5
It seems that the days of being super active in free agency might be over as all they'll be able to hopefully do is sign their own guys. That's probably a good thing. I think they are hanging back until Beltran, Teixiera (after this year), CC and ARod (after next year) are off the books. Then they will go hard for Harper, Kershaw, Machado or Xander, and perhaps Fernandez. Or they sell the team just before that and the new owner (Dolan? Levine? Cuban?) will try to do the same. Well who ever the owner is they better be ready to cough up 1 Billion dollars on just few players.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2016 23:33:50 GMT -5
I'm sure we're almost at the point where the biggest contracts will get opt-outs after every single season so that only the team takes on any risk and has no chance at excess value at any point. Maybe they're better off trading him. Can you say next major labor issue.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 2, 2016 13:39:13 GMT -5
Bogaerts is now leading Seager and Lindor by 1.0 fWAR, and Correa by 2.0. He is staking his claim as not just the best SS in the game, but the clear best SS in the game. Unlike the other three, he has no clear specific weakness. He runs, fields, hits, and hits for power now all at at least a solid-average level. The guy is awesome.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 2, 2016 15:44:35 GMT -5
"It was reported this week by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLB Network that Machado may get into the $400-million range, which seems almost reasonable considering Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325-million deal, but that may prove to be exclusionary for the sometimes penurious Orioles. Hearing that figure, one baseball official suggested it would “probably have to be at another venue.” www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/harper-machado/This is all pertinent to Xander because if Heyman knows anything, he knows Boras.
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Post by jdb on Jun 2, 2016 15:51:09 GMT -5
I was going to say if I'm Xander I let guys like Harper and Machado set a new market then sign after that free agency frenzy.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 2, 2016 16:04:13 GMT -5
I was going to say if I'm Xander I let guys like Harper and Machado set a new market then sign after that free agency frenzy. That same article has Harper getting $40-50M a year. Amazing. Also says the Strasberg extension was "player driven."
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 2, 2016 17:36:22 GMT -5
Where is all the money going to come from?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 2, 2016 17:53:08 GMT -5
TV revenues and MLB.com. I seem to recall a article in Forbes by Maury Brown not too long ago saying MLB is flush and MLB TV is one of the richest networks in the world.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 2, 2016 18:04:01 GMT -5
TV revenues and MLB.com. I seem to recall a article in Forbes by Maury Brown not too long ago saying MLB is flush and MLB TV is one of the richest networks in the world. Then every team can sign them. I just don't see how one team is going to take on 3-4 $40 million players. I have no interest. I'll laugh at whoever is dumb enough to do it.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 3, 2016 5:15:01 GMT -5
I think they are hanging back until Beltran, Teixiera (after this year), CC and ARod (after next year) are off the books. Then they will go hard for Harper, Kershaw, Machado or Xander, and perhaps Fernandez. Or they sell the team just before that and the new owner (Dolan? Levine? Cuban?) will try to do the same. Well who ever the owner is they better be ready to cough up 1 Billion dollars on just few players. More than a billion. Harper is going to get 500 million, Machado is going to get 300 to 400 million. I can't fathom how much Kershaw will get.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 3, 2016 7:56:25 GMT -5
I'm sure a lot of teams will be able to afford these guys. Just not sure with Xander becoming a FA AFTER that wave that the big market teams will be able to sign another 400 mil guy. I see Machado signing as a SS so that will eliminate that team. The Dodgers have Seager so that eliminates them.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 3, 2016 11:02:53 GMT -5
We should all guess what Xander's extension would be as a percentage of Aruba's annual GDP. I'm going to guess that it will be slightly less than 15%.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 3, 2016 13:06:37 GMT -5
We should all guess what Xander's extension would be as a percentage of Aruba's annual GDP. I'm going to guess that it will be slightly less than 15%. That would be about $387Mill. Not a bad guess if you're referring to when he becomes a FA. If we're talking about the Sox buying out his arb years and 2-3 more, that's not even in the ballpark.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2016 13:51:41 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2016 14:14:25 GMT -5
Which teams are dumb enough to not realize that the bubble is going to burst? It's just like buying a $1m 500 foot studio in 2007. These insanely rich people aren't rich because they're dumb.
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