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7/21-7/23 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 21, 2015 21:39:02 GMT -5
FYI: Nava is on the bench. Marrero was optioned today.
per NESN Red Sox Activate Daniel Nava From DL, Option Deven Marrero To Triple-A
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2015 21:40:00 GMT -5
What should Farrell have done differently? I'm pretty critical of Farrell, but beyond the Johnson preparation situation (which in my opinion is from above him), what should he have done differently in-game? What reliever should he have turned to in the fifth inning? If Johnson had gotten hit hard the third time through the order, people would be killing Farrell for leaving him in after being gassed. It's totally okay to kill the manager for stuff he does wrong (and he does plenty of that). Killing him for the players not being good enough, which is the problem today, really is just whining.
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 21, 2015 21:41:35 GMT -5
I might throw up
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2015 21:44:34 GMT -5
Yeah and whether they score or not after you leave the game says nothing about how you performed in the game. Of course it does. If he hadn't put them on, they couldn't have scored. Had he pitched more economically, or effectively, he likely would have been left in to attempt to strand them. Okay, but you didn't disagree with me, you can determine how Johnson pitched until the point where he left the game. He pitched exactly as well whether those runners score or whether Masterson left them stranded.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 21, 2015 22:02:17 GMT -5
De Aza increase in trade value tonite Masterson: NO
EDIT: De Aza NO change in trade value tonite Masterson: NO change in trade value tonite
Scouts are scouting nothing.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 21, 2015 22:02:22 GMT -5
Assuming the Sox lose, they will be 10 games under .500. The Yankees are 10 games over.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2015 22:05:20 GMT -5
De Aza increase in trade value tonite Masterson: NO Not picking on you specifically because I've been seeing a lot of stuff about players' trade value changing between now and the deadline. But this doesn't happen. A team's evaluation of a player isn't going to change in a single game, or even a couple weeks, unless there is some injury issue that arises. No team was in on Justin Masterson two hours ago and then saw him tonight and was like "oh wait pull the plug this dude is pitching like garbage." MAYBE if he saw a big increase in his velocity back to 2013 levels then a team might be willing to buy him dirt cheap, but in general trade values aren't this dynamic.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 21, 2015 23:20:21 GMT -5
With Joe Kelly pitching tomorrow, the writing is on the wall and it reads: FIRST PICK OR BUST. I fear that when they DFA Napoli and Sandoval goes to the DL (hypertension or type 2 diabetes) that they may improve too much to get there, though. Stay hopeful, friends.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2015 1:40:58 GMT -5
Um because according to the statistic Brian Johnson is a worse pitcher for hits allowed by Justin Masterson. Say Masterson comes in and gets the next two guys out, Johnson is only charged with one earned run for the night. Why should Masterson's performance have anything to do with how we judge Johnson's? If Marisnick merely steals second, and Altuve then walks, the Run Expectancy is 1.51 runs, whereas the RE with the bases empty and 1 out is 0.24. So the runners that Johnson did not himself allow to score were worth 1.27 runs on average. And the other 1.73 that were charged to him in that inning were not his fault. The Hanigan throwing error, BTE, cost 0.97 runs, while by allowing a runner on 1B with 1 out to score, Masterson cost 0.76. (Yeah, I used to do these calculations for every error and every inherited runner situation (hence producing a True ERA) for every game in the system, MLB to GCL.)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 6:59:16 GMT -5
De Aza increase in trade value tonite Masterson: NO Not picking on you specifically because I've been seeing a lot of stuff about players' trade value changing between now and the deadline. But this doesn't happen. A team's evaluation of a player isn't going to change in a single game, or even a couple weeks, unless there is some injury issue that arises. No team was in on Justin Masterson two hours ago and then saw him tonight and was like "oh wait pull the plug this dude is pitching like garbage." MAYBE if he saw a big increase in his velocity back to 2013 levels then a team might be willing to buy him dirt cheap, but in general trade values aren't this dynamic. Each players' worth is decided pitch by pitch in these threads. Get with the program.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2015 10:42:05 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 22, 2015 11:04:00 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations. Thanks for this. It supports some of the doubts I have expressed about defensive metrics. However, what it doesn't point out is that frequently it is just one play that a good fielder makes - or a poor fielder doesn't make - that changes the game - or even the season - for a team. And I don't think it is a coincidence that much of the time the best teams are very good defensively. Houston is a good example.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2015 11:12:03 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations. Thanks for this. It supports some of the doubts I have expressed about defensive metrics. However, what it doesn't point out is that frequently it is just one play that a good fielder makes - or a poor fielder doesn't make - that changes the game - or even the season - for a team. And I don't think it is a coincidence that much of the time the best teams are very good defensively. Houston is a good example. I think that the metrics will also support the old adage that good pitching and defense will beat good offense more often than not.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 11:22:23 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations. The article did not say defense doesn't matter. It said that Inside Edge isn't good, and I completely agree. For example, according to them, JBJ made no impossible plays (0%), 1 remote play (1-10%) and 2 unlikely plays (10-40%) last year. And that all other plays he made would have been made by an average outfielder. Does that sound reasonable? It's ridiculous. I remember a lot more than 3 good to great plays he made. And for the 62% that are almost always outs, the "almost" part of it is where you have to evaluate Hanley because they are not almost always outs for someone that bad. I bet for him, 40% of plays are almost always outs.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2015 12:05:54 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations. The article did not say defense doesn't matter. It said that Inside Edge isn't good, and I completely agree. For example, according to them, JBJ made no impossible plays (0%), 1 remote play (1-10%) and 2 unlikely plays (10-40%) last year. And that all other plays he made would have been made by an average outfielder. Does that sound reasonable? It's ridiculous. I remember a lot more than 3 good to great plays he made. And for the 62% that are almost always outs, the "almost" part of it is where you have to evaluate Hanley because they are not almost always outs for someone that bad. I bet for him, 40% of plays are almost always outs. That was a sarcastic lede on my part.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 22, 2015 14:26:19 GMT -5
Looks like defense doesn't matter according to the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stats-shift-back-toward-irrelevance-1437518138Two excerpts: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill.Given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge...Dramatic infield shifts are now factored into the zone-based systems. But the evidence shows that teams save more hits this way than they do with conventional range. For example, the Rays have saved 15 runs with outstanding defensive plays, but nearly twice as many with their radical shifts, which they rely on more than any other team. The piece is more nuanced than that, and they don't have any reels of Hanley playing left-field, but there are some interesting observations. The article did not say defense doesn't matter. It said that Inside Edge isn't good, and I completely agree. For example, according to them, JBJ made no impossible plays (0%), 1 remote play (1-10%) and 2 unlikely plays (10-40%) last year. And that all other plays he made would have been made by an average outfielder. Does that sound reasonable? It's ridiculous. I remember a lot more than 3 good to great plays he made. And for the 62% that are almost always outs, the "almost" part of it is where you have to evaluate Hanley because they are not almost always outs for someone that bad. I bet for him, 40% of plays are almost always outs. ... thereby joining 100% of everybody who's ever played baseball at any level.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 15:43:56 GMT -5
The article did not say defense doesn't matter. It said that Inside Edge isn't good, and I completely agree. For example, according to them, JBJ made no impossible plays (0%), 1 remote play (1-10%) and 2 unlikely plays (10-40%) last year. And that all other plays he made would have been made by an average outfielder. Does that sound reasonable? It's ridiculous. I remember a lot more than 3 good to great plays he made. And for the 62% that are almost always outs, the "almost" part of it is where you have to evaluate Hanley because they are not almost always outs for someone that bad. I bet for him, 40% of plays are almost always outs. ... thereby joining 100% of everybody who's ever played baseball at any level. Yeah, that's another problem I have with Inside Edge. What is the purpose in having that as a category? JBJ has 69 total attempts at impossible plays with 0 made. Why only 69? Why isn't a popup to the catcher counted?
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2015 16:03:36 GMT -5
“@gordonedes: Red Sox lineup: Pedroia 2B, Holt 3B, Bogaerts SS, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, De Aza CF, Victorino RF, Napoli 1B, Swihart C, Kelly RHP”
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 22, 2015 16:15:28 GMT -5
Why the hell is Jackie Bradley Jr still in AAA?
What a joke of an organization.
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Post by prangerx on Jul 22, 2015 16:18:53 GMT -5
Why don't they just DFA Napoli already? He isn't going to be on next years team and isn't helping this years team.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,418
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Post by ianrs on Jul 22, 2015 16:19:46 GMT -5
Why the hell is Jackie Bradley Jr still in AAA? What a joke of an organization. If he is still in AAA after the trade deadline (assuming he isn't traded), then you have a legitimate complaint.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2015 16:22:57 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Brian Johnson packing up and Noe Ramirez is still in uniform so it appears as if Johnson is heading back down to AAA”
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ianrs
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Posts: 2,418
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Post by ianrs on Jul 22, 2015 16:26:34 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Brian Johnson packing up and Noe Ramirez is still in uniform so it appears as if Johnson is heading back down to AAA” Now if this is true, this is fairly infuriating and shows that the FO really has no plan and seem to be continually jerking around players' development...
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 22, 2015 16:35:59 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Brian Johnson packing up and Noe Ramirez is still in uniform so it appears as if Johnson is heading back down to AAA” lol what a pathetic organization.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2015 16:48:50 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Brian Johnson packing up and Noe Ramirez is still in uniform so it appears as if Johnson is heading back down to AAA” lol what a pathetic organization. If there's an award for most negative forum poster on the internet, I'd guess you're in the running for it. I wouldn't watch baseball if I got as mad as you do all the time.
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