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Update: Red Sox sign Napoli for one year, $5m
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Post by remember04 on Jan 17, 2013 12:19:14 GMT -5
I still want Smoak, as a backup/lottery-ticket-for-2014, tho' he can't play OF. Ortiz hit .234/.324/.475/.799 at age 25 (although better in some other years, and with some different limiting factors).. I agree as always depending on the cost but I can't see it being more than minimal. The actual salary of this deal is shocking. His hip has to be messed up but I love this dead.
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Post by remember04 on Jan 17, 2013 12:33:58 GMT -5
If the problem is so bad that he's only getting $5M base salary this year (and it's reportedly a matter of time until he breaks), I think there's no way he gets a qualifying offer. He could be healthy all this year but that hip would still be liable to collapse the following year. But it would only be a one year commitment and some team will offer him the years he wants.
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Post by curll on Jan 17, 2013 12:38:31 GMT -5
Wow, saving $34M is pretty nifty.
I hope Napoli does fantastic and plays his balls off. But, a fantastic pivot and adjustment by Ben.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 17, 2013 12:43:34 GMT -5
If the problem is so bad that he's only getting $5M base salary this year (and it's reportedly a matter of time until he breaks), I think there's no way he gets a qualifying offer. He could be healthy all this year but that hip would still be liable to collapse the following year. But it would only be a one year commitment and some team will offer him the years he wants. Some team that doesn't believe in hip injuries?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 17, 2013 12:46:47 GMT -5
Given the current make up of the team the person that is the happiest about this signing is Mauro Gomez because it means he will get plenty of playing time. The round table decision makers should all be fired. Pure provocation, and to what end? They got their guy, someone who as recently as two years ago was the best right-handed hitter in the AL, for chump change. So what if he doesn't pan out? And if he comes anywhere near to his career numbers, it's such a great deal it's embarrassing. As Hatfield makes clear, there were no other options of a similar calibre on the market, none. Moreover, the team is not through dealing. Given all the spare cash they have lying around, and the potential for more trades, this is looking more and more like a better managed off-season than any since, say, 2007? Bring on that left-handed outfielder/first-baseman.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 17, 2013 12:51:05 GMT -5
Considering that Lance Berkman got 10 million, this is an amazing deal. I love it. If his hip gives out, oh well, five million dollar loss.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 17, 2013 12:53:21 GMT -5
I think you need to read the CBA, what you are suggesting just isn't possible in contract language You mean the CBA doesn't allow a "no-offer" provision? For the billionth time..... You can't put it in a players contract that he cannot be tendered a qualifying offer. From the CBA: (c) Misc. Articles of Free Agency Article XXI "A club and player shall not enter into any agreement understanding or contract, or make any representation promise or commitment, whether implied or explicit, either orally or in writing, that the club will not make a qualifying offer, or that a player will not except said offer........" It goes on , but I can't copy and paste so I'm tired of transfering it. So No, you can't put language in acontract saying you won't extend or the player won't except a QO. Therefore if Napoli has a great year the sox could (and would) extend Napoli a QO and take the draft pick.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 17, 2013 12:59:52 GMT -5
Add: The language of the CBA also makes clear that all incentives paid out during the year are part of the AAV to be considered in the team's total salary outlay.
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Post by jmei on Jan 17, 2013 13:03:49 GMT -5
FYI: there are $8m worth of incentives in the contract which are probably tied to playing time. I would imagine that if he stays healthy most of the year, his total salary will probably rise close to the $13m AAV he was originally promised. Thus, if he does stay healthy and performs well, it is very possible that the Red Sox would extend him the QO and very possible that Napoli declines it to pursue a multi-year deal.
Indeed, the fact that there is so much money tied up in incentives but no affordable second-year option suggests to me that Napoli and/or his reps think that he will have a good year and perhaps position himself for a solid contract next offseason.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 17, 2013 13:08:28 GMT -5
Exactly jmei, there is virtually no downside to this deal. If Napoli is hurt the sox simply let him walk for the 5mil. If he's good and healthy he earns his original 13mil and the sox offer the QO. If he excepts the sox get another year of Napoli at the same price. If he turns down the QO the sox get a nice draft pick.
It's really the best of both worlds..... You play Napoli and hope he's good, but if he's not you have saved enough money to make a trade before the deadline. If he lasts longer then the deadline he'd have earned his 5mil plus anyway.
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Post by MLBDreams on Jan 17, 2013 13:16:41 GMT -5
It doesn't matter at all since he'll be on FA market again this Fall if Mike gets his best yr as Red Sox with monster numbers. He'll declines their qualify offer and will lose him to other team. I imagine that he would say to FO, you should have me for 3/39 in first place but you worried about my hip failure.
It's either win or lose situation for Mike and the RS with the deal. Who'll be best available for 2014 FA as 1B market?
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Post by elguapo on Jan 17, 2013 13:27:21 GMT -5
If Napoli is hurt the sox simply let him walk for the 5mil. If he's good and healthy he earns his original 13mil and the sox offer the QO. If this offseason the team thinks Napoli's hip is so likely to implode in the next 1-5 years that they're only willing to guarantee one year, $5M, why would they be willing to guarantee $14M next offseason? Why would another team want to surrender a draft pick AND guarantee Napoli over $14M if his hip is a ticking time bomb? (Assuming that what's been reported is accurate.)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 17, 2013 13:28:37 GMT -5
He can say whatever he wants as he walks out the door. The Sox will take the draft pick and thank him very much. As far as the hip, the team is doing what it needs to do to protect itself. See Mike Lowell and ARod for reference.
Again, the near schizoid nature of the commentary can be used as a gauge of the deal's value. Either everyone in the front office should be fired for signing the guy, or they should have begged him to take a longer contract.
Neither.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 17, 2013 13:28:52 GMT -5
Wow, turned into a pillow contract out of nowhere ... that's pretty good for the Sox. The only potential downside is if he goes bonkers, and they wish they had him for two more years at 13 million/per instead of a draft pick. That's not much of a downside risk ...
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 17, 2013 13:49:45 GMT -5
Maybe Napoli's hip problems are Lennay Kekua for next season.
Lame I know.
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Post by jioh on Jan 17, 2013 13:51:09 GMT -5
Why would another team want to surrender a draft pick AND guarantee Napoli over $14M if his hip is a ticking time bomb? (Assuming that what's been reported is accurate.) Isn't Hamilton a (softly) ticking time bomb who has just been guaranteed big bucks? It's all cost-benefit analysis including a notion of probability.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 17, 2013 13:55:31 GMT -5
If Napoli is hurt the sox simply let him walk for the 5mil. If he's good and healthy he earns his original 13mil and the sox offer the QO. If this offseason the team thinks Napoli's hip is so likely to implode in the next 1-5 years that they're only willing to guarantee one year, $5M, why would they be willing to guarantee $14M next offseason? Why would another team want to surrender a draft pick AND guarantee Napoli over $14M if his hip is a ticking time bomb? (Assuming that what's been reported is accurate.) If for example Napoli puts up a season similar to his 2011 year and is relatively healthy for an entire season, then he will have plenty of takers hip problem or not. I don't get why anyone can't understand this. If Napoli has a monster year a 13mil deal for one season looks good, If another team wants him they will offer him more, either a bigger one year deal or a multi-year offer. Either way they have to give the sox a pick. "IF" and I know it's a pretty big "IF" Napoli is healthy and has a borderline career year or even just a really good year......then the sox will definitely off the QO. The market is only going up
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Post by joshv02 on Jan 17, 2013 14:06:58 GMT -5
Keep in mind that a league-average player is now paid roughly $11m a year. Something about this doesn't sit right. That's post-Free Agency right? Yes. That is the ~free-agent value of a 2 WAR player. Floyd is likely worth more 1-1.5 more WAR, but will be paid about $5mm more (or the value of one win) So, a 5-10 prospect is probably an overpay. However, a ML reliever, or a lower ranked prospect (or both) would likely even it out. Basically, a 1 WAR player at minimum but without much upside to do better (or team control considering the length of Floyd's contract). Morales is paid a little more, but roughly that.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 17, 2013 14:32:04 GMT -5
The market is only going up Napoli is only getting older and his hip is only getting closer to expiration date (depends on what the expected time to failure curve looks like, I guess). No matter how well Napoli performs this year teams will expect him to return to career norms - at best - assuming complete health. The fact is he's a tremendous injury risk every year going forward. This year the Sox were pretty sure he'd be healthy for 5/13ths of one season. To get a better offer than a QO, Napoli would have to convince a team that he's worth guaranteeing $15M plus a draft pick - call it $18M in value, conservatively, more than triple his guarantee this year. And the team could be reasonably confident he'd be healthy for, let's be generous, 1/2 a season. GMs sometimes make poor decidions, but I just don't see it happening.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 17, 2013 14:42:33 GMT -5
The market is only going up Napoli is only getting older and his hip is only getting closer to expiration date (depends on what the expected time to failure curve looks like, I guess). No matter how well Napoli performs this year teams will expect him to return to career norms - at best - assuming complete health. The fact is he's a tremendous injury risk every year going forward. This year the Sox were pretty sure he'd be healthy for 5/13ths of one season. To get a better offer than a QO, Napoli would have to convince a team that he's worth guaranteeing $15M plus a draft pick - call it $18M in value, conservatively, more than triple his guarantee this year. And the team could be reasonably confident he'd be healthy for, let's be generous, 1/2 a season. GMs sometimes make poor decidions, but I just don't see it happening. I do see it happening.... I don't think it's gaurenteed by any stretch, but teams are paying outrageous amounts and to think that a team wouldn't pay 13.5mil to a .260 /.350/ .610 player (which is less than his career best, but slightly above career .avg) is crazy. assuming he plays in 110 to 140 games. infact depending on the market he might not even need to be that good, he'd just need to prove he's healthy. We don't know the medicals so right now it's impossible to tell just what the prognosis may be. It could be a degenerative condition that is simply inflamed now, yet with PT could be managed to be a safe bet going forward.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 17, 2013 14:47:18 GMT -5
I think Napoli, or his agent more accurately, would value a guaranteed multi-year deal even at a lower AAV than a QO.
If he has a big big year it will be worth extending a QO anyways and at 13 mill for 1 year thats a gamble the team can take regarding injury.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 17, 2013 14:53:38 GMT -5
infact depending on the market he might not even need to be that good, he'd just need to prove he's healthy. From what's been reported I don't even think that's a possibility. But as you say, we don't have the medical reports, and even if I read them I wouldn't learn much. I'm taking a pessimistic view based on what's been reported and the terrible downgrade Napoli had to take. to think that a team wouldn't pay 13.5mil to a .260 /.350/ .610 player (which is less than his career best, but slightly above career .avg) is crazy. assuming he plays in 110 to 140 games. Over $14M plus a draft pick, and his career average is .259 / .356 / .507. And then it comes down to how many games he's likely to play, and if he plays, is he likely to be effective.
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Post by remember04 on Jan 17, 2013 15:09:37 GMT -5
But it would only be a one year commitment and some team will offer him the years he wants. Some team that doesn't believe in hip injuries? I agree that hip injuries are looking pretty bad recently but not all hip injuries are created equal. I hurt my hip when I was 17 and it was arthritic by the time I was 21. I hurt back and had minor knee issues because of it. I worked through them and now except for being slightly less flexible on that side you'd never know anything happened. I'm not a doctor and I haven't seen his medicals but there was interest from other teams and I'm sure there would be again.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 17, 2013 15:56:22 GMT -5
He can say whatever he wants as he walks out the door. The Sox will take the draft pick and thank him very much. As far as the hip, the team is doing what it needs to do to protect itself. See Mike Lowell and ARod for reference. Again, the near schizoid nature of the commentary can be used as a gauge of the deal's value. Either everyone in the front office should be fired for signing the guy, or they should have begged him to take a longer contract. Neither. The Red Sox just got a free Mike Napoli. That's insane, and it's fantastic. Anyone who's complaining for any reason just likes to complain, period.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 17, 2013 16:48:02 GMT -5
I think it's at least debatable whether the massive downgrade was more to do with the severity of the hip issue, or more about the lack of suitors at this point in the off season (and not just suitors, but ones who provide a legitimate chance to show he's truly healthy, ie. ones where he's not primarily a DH).
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