SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by klostrophobic on May 16, 2016 14:51:03 GMT -5
True, the age argument is pretty weak, but when Ellsbury was brought up it was his second full season in the minors and he started the year in AA. Ditto Bogaerts starting the year in AA. I suppose it's a new front office and there are always firsts, but when is the last time the Red Sox had a player go from Hi-A to Boston in the same season? Maybe there just hasn't been someone with Benintendi's profile to push like that? I'm rooting for it and the roster construction definitely looks lot tidier with Rutledge going down, Holt as a super utility and Young just batting against lefties with Benintendi getting the majority of the playing time in LF. Last year actually, Jonathan Aro. Aro started last year in AA as far as I can tell.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
|
Post by radiohix on May 16, 2016 15:09:58 GMT -5
You're right. Could've sweared he started in Salem, my bad.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 16, 2016 16:02:38 GMT -5
Nothing interesting in Portland. Derek Miller paper move to Lowell, Roberson to DL.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 16, 2016 16:32:34 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Benintendi skips AAA but it's not like posters here are the only people suggesting it. How many times have we read the Conforto track comparisons for Benintendi from various media members? Conforto skipped AAA, and Benintendi is 45 games away from matching Conforto's minor league total. Benintendi has been more impressive than Conforto was from a production standpoint, but the Mets have an entirely different situation and philosophy. He'd have to dominate in Portland for ~50 games, but if he lights it up and LF becomes a black hole for the big club most of us will probably be calling for it (and again, this assumes he continues to mash for the next two months in AA). If he has any type of adjustment period in Portland it'll be ruled out. It's a lot to ask of any prospect but it's becoming hard to bet against this guy. Well, the Mets were trying to get into contention and were short on bats. The Sox are likely to be in contention, and want to free up Holt to be the true super-utility player he should be. I think the situations are more similar than you're portraying: contending team seeking to fill a need internally with an advanced hitter. Benintendi is also a better defensive player than Conforto (probably much better, especially if he goes to LF), and the Sox can stash him in the 8 or 9 spot with minimal "need" for him to produce. The Sox actually probably have less resistance in place to Benintendi's promotion than the Mets did with Conforto, simply in that it's a lower-pressure move. Regardless, I think production will dictate progression, with the caveat that any "need" for Holt elsewhere on the diamond may accelerate the timetable.
|
|
|
Post by dnfl333 on May 16, 2016 17:34:04 GMT -5
Continue to let AB develop. Strong AA showing leads to a few AAA swings in August. ML call up in Sept. Yes, the LF situation would be better suited with CYoung vs LHP and find yourself a veteran stick vs RHP with Holt moving back into the utility role.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2016 6:48:07 GMT -5
Not surprisingly totheights tweeted it out like it was his info. After mocking brisox. Fraud. Thanks for having my back bury , but I don't care the info is just for guys on this board , some will believe me others won't , they can have all the credit. Whole thing feels silly anyway, who cares who said it first . I just wanted to give everyone something to get excited about outside of 3 or 4 guys it has not been much fun following the system so far this year As for the idea that he will skip AAA, there is 0.0% chance of that happening. They want to build value for Rusney and Swihart before they would even consider this , if he rakes in AA which we all agree is the most difficult jump he will still have to show 120+ at bats of success . Then maybe we see him in AAA when we release Brentz who gets picked up by Oakland and hits 30 hrs . ;-) Brentz will be on the DL for that period of time, no worries. And I think the chance that Brentz ever sees the majors before September or any year for any team is unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2016 6:53:09 GMT -5
True, the age argument is pretty weak, but when Ellsbury was brought up it was his second full season in the minors and he started the year in AA. Ditto Bogaerts starting the year in AA. I suppose it's a new front office and there are always firsts, but when is the last time the Red Sox had a player go from Hi-A to Boston in the same season? Maybe there just hasn't been someone with Benintendi's profile to push like that? I'm rooting for it and the roster construction definitely looks lot tidier with Rutledge going down, Holt as a super utility and Young just batting against lefties with Benintendi getting the majority of the playing time in LF. It's pretty clear that Benintendi could have started the season in AA. I'm not sure why the kid gloves have to be on for a 21 year old highly regarded prospect. Bogaerts was already in the majors at his age.
|
|
|
Post by rangoon82 on May 17, 2016 10:37:49 GMT -5
The mental side of the game is a large part of baseball. There's also a large investment in Benintendi. So one potential answer to that question is perhaps the Sox thought the risk of throwing off his confidence with an aggressive initial placement outweighed the reward. Xander and Benintendi aren't really apples to apples too. Xander had already had professional baseball experience.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 17, 2016 10:47:18 GMT -5
The mental side of the game is a large part of baseball. There's also a large investment in Benintendi. So one potential answer to that question is perhaps the Sox thought the risk of throwing off his confidence with an aggressive initial placement outweighed the reward. Xander and Benintendi aren't really apples to apples too. Xander had already had professional baseball experience. Playing baseball in the SEC is equal to or greater than the professional experience of high or low A ball in terms of quality of players, attendance and atmosphere. If anything it may even be more difficult because one's job in college (ostensibly) extends beyond playing baseball. In the minors that's all it is. I agree with Keith Law on this - you have a first round pick out of a major college program in a competitive conference, anything more than a cup of coffee in A ball is the equivalent of repeating a level. If Lowell wasn't enough to get his feet wet in pro ball then Greenville sure was. As for the investment, he got about the same as what a 9-12th reliever would get on a 1 year deal. He should've started in AA this year.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on May 17, 2016 11:23:40 GMT -5
And the opportunity cost of the pick as well... I agree that he should have been in Portland to start the year, but I don't expect he'll be ready to contribute to the MLB team this September, and so I'm not sure that starting him in A+ has hurt his timing at all. Two similar examples are Pedroia and Ellsbury. Each played two summers in the minors, before reaching the bigs in their third season. The only difference here is that the signing deadline has been moved up, so Benni had what, a month head start? I suppose you might argue that he was more polished, at least than Ellsbury, but it's not like Ells or Pedey were even ready early in their third seasons. Ells was a valuable player for 33 games plus October of 2007, his third year in the org. And Pedroia took until the following June before he became anything more than an automatic out at the big league level. Both also got time in the AFL, valuable experience to lengthen out the season for a younger player. I just don't think Benni will be ready this year, and so I don't think it hurts them having him start in A-ball.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on May 17, 2016 11:38:39 GMT -5
In yesterday's newsletter, Speier mentioned that Benintendi has moved through the system faster than anyone since Pedroia. Might be useful to remember that he's a product of the very last draft, he's in AA, and it's all of mid-May.
I also recollect another SEC product who killed it in A+, one who became fodder for the uninformed hype machine that so many in the Boston media are part of. Took a while but that guy eventually claimed his rightful place in the sun, out there in centerfield.
I don't mind that they've taken, ahem, a little less than a year to move him to Portland. Let's see how he does against pitching that is most definitely not just SEC calibre.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2016 11:46:31 GMT -5
In yesterday's newsletter, Speier mentioned that Benintendi has moved through the system faster than anyone since Pedroia. I've seen this thrown out there a few times since the promotion (including from Speier), and I feel like it's necessary to throw a little cold water and note that he is also the highest ever pick the Red Sox have ever used on a college player. He's doing great and I'm bullish on his chances to play in the majors this year, but when you grab a college bat at #7 he should be in Double-A in the May of the following year.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 17, 2016 11:46:57 GMT -5
And the opportunity cost of the pick as well... I agree that he should have been in Portland to start the year, but I don't expect he'll be ready to contribute to the MLB team this September, and so I'm not sure that starting him in A+ has hurt his timing at all. Two similar examples are Pedroia and Ellsbury. Each played two summers in the minors, before reaching the bigs in their third season. The only difference here is that the signing deadline has been moved up, so Benni had what, a month head start? I suppose you might argue that he was more polished, at least than Ellsbury, but it's not like Ells or Pedey were even ready early in their third seasons. Ells was a valuable player for 33 games plus October of 2007, his third year in the org. And Pedroia took until the following June before he became anything more than an automatic out at the big league level. Both also got time in the AFL, valuable experience to lengthen out the season for a younger player. I just don't think Benni will be ready this year, and so I don't think it hurts them having him start in A-ball. I agree with this. I'm probably one of the few on this board who would rank Benintendi over Moncada, and I think penciling him into the August line up is a little much. He may be ready this year, but I still have the odds way below 50%, he hasn't seen any advanced minor league pitching yet. I really don't get the skipping AAA theory either. If the plan was to get him into LF by Aug/Sept by skipping a level, why wouldn't they skip AA and put him closer to the majors.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 17, 2016 12:27:18 GMT -5
And the opportunity cost of the pick as well... I agree that he should have been in Portland to start the year, but I don't expect he'll be ready to contribute to the MLB team this September, and so I'm not sure that starting him in A+ has hurt his timing at all. Two similar examples are Pedroia and Ellsbury. Each played two summers in the minors, before reaching the bigs in their third season. The only difference here is that the signing deadline has been moved up, so Benni had what, a month head start? I suppose you might argue that he was more polished, at least than Ellsbury, but it's not like Ells or Pedey were even ready early in their third seasons. Ells was a valuable player for 33 games plus October of 2007, his third year in the org. And Pedroia took until the following June before he became anything more than an automatic out at the big league level. Both also got time in the AFL, valuable experience to lengthen out the season for a younger player. I just don't think Benni will be ready this year, and so I don't think it hurts them having him start in A-ball. Agree that he likely won't make the majors this year. But I also think these are athletes and you want to challenge them appropriately. I'm of the belief that starting him in AA would've done that. I am also a strong believer in the idea that, barring an emergency need on the MLB club or the guy being a pure prodigy, most position players should get at least 300 AAA ABs and demonstrate ability at that level before they go to MLB. Everything I've ever read or heard is that final step to MLB is exponentially greater than any other promotion in pro ball. We all love to dream that these guys are future All Stars when they are in the minors, but the road to the MLB is littered with careers that just stalled for whatever reason. Look no further than "unbelievably advanced offensive approach" and "future Kevin Youkilis clone Garin Cecchini" for a recent example.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2016 12:57:20 GMT -5
And the opportunity cost of the pick as well... I agree that he should have been in Portland to start the year, but I don't expect he'll be ready to contribute to the MLB team this September, and so I'm not sure that starting him in A+ has hurt his timing at all. Two similar examples are Pedroia and Ellsbury. Each played two summers in the minors, before reaching the bigs in their third season. The only difference here is that the signing deadline has been moved up, so Benni had what, a month head start? I suppose you might argue that he was more polished, at least than Ellsbury, but it's not like Ells or Pedey were even ready early in their third seasons. Ells was a valuable player for 33 games plus October of 2007, his third year in the org. And Pedroia took until the following June before he became anything more than an automatic out at the big league level. Both also got time in the AFL, valuable experience to lengthen out the season for a younger player. I just don't think Benni will be ready this year, and so I don't think it hurts them having him start in A-ball. Agree that he likely won't make the majors this year. But I also think these are athletes and you want to challenge them appropriately. I'm of the belief that starting him in AA would've done that. I am also a strong believer in the idea that, barring an emergency need on the MLB club or the guy being a pure prodigy, most position players should get at least 300 AAA ABs and demonstrate ability at that level before they go to MLB. Everything I've ever read or heard is that final step to MLB is exponentially greater than any other promotion in pro ball. We all love to dream that these guys are future All Stars when they are in the minors, but the road to the MLB is littered with careers that just stalled for whatever reason. Look no further than "unbelievably advanced offensive approach" and "future Kevin Youkilis clone Garin Cecchini" for a recent example.Or the hyped up Mookie or Xander when going through the minors or Shaw's and JBJ's unbelievably great SSS last year for other examples.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2016 13:23:34 GMT -5
On Benintendi, I thought it was a toss-up on Portland/Salem for him, which is why I was surprised that they didn't even have him working out with Portland in camp. Clearly there was something to keeping expectations down both for him individually and externally. However, he's proven them "wrong" for putting him in Salem. But yeah, I don't think his timetable has been slowed at all - a month and a half really isn't that big a deal.
James makes a great point - not only is he the most advanced bat they've drafted since probably Ellsbury or Pedroia, he's the first they've picked in a long time that <1 year after the draft, if you re-drafted, he'd be certain to go top 5 (I'm thinking #4 after the shortstops but he might sneak ahead of Rodgers). There really isn't anyone in recent memory in this system to compare him to, so it's tough to come up with a comp in that sense.
Just sit back and enjoy the ride I guess. I could see him spending the rest of the year in Portland and I could see him in Fenway in time to be on a playoff roster.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on May 17, 2016 13:52:42 GMT -5
I know this is projecting and requires a lot of factors to come together well for it to happen, but it seems to me like Benintendi is on a trajectory to get a cup of coffee this year (or simply move to AAA at some point), start next year in Pawtucket and if he's playing well push himself into a starting role in Boston just in time for the Sox to have an extra year of control.
I realize it's pretty unlikely, and probably would be pretty silly, for the Sox to be trying to set things up in this way so far ahead of time, but just looking at the pace he's on I could see that as a very reasonable path from this point.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 17, 2016 14:03:47 GMT -5
To be fair, Benintendi was also a draft-eligible sophmore and thus at least part of a year younger and less experienced than Pedroia/Ellsbury.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 17, 2016 14:40:25 GMT -5
I mentioned this before, but I don't think the Sox have ever skipped A+ with a prospect. So, you could argue that he should've started in Greenville last year and been promoted to Salem (the Pedroia Track) to be ready to start in Portland this year, but I think the chance of his skipping Salem completely were very, very low. And, while it's easy to forget now, there was some reasonable question about how good he was out of the gate because of the relatively limited run of success. So starting him in Lowell wasn't crazy.
In hindsight, he could've started at Greenville and gone through both levels of full-season A ball last year (or just skipped Greenville after Lowell since it's not that much more advanced than short-season, if at all), but whatever. Six weeks in Salem didn't kill the kid's drive or anything.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on May 17, 2016 21:34:37 GMT -5
I have not seen a prospect that is as poised in the batter's box as Benny in quite a long time.
He has everything he needs to be successful at double a. I thought for sure he would have been moved up a couple weeks earlier, but glad the sox waited for the weather to warm up a bit.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2016 22:09:39 GMT -5
To be fair, Benintendi was also a draft-eligible sophmore and thus at least part of a year younger and less experienced than Pedroia/Ellsbury. A year less experienced, yes. But the reason he was draft eligible as a sophomore was because of his age. So in strict terms of age advancement, reaching Double-A in a year he turns 22 puts him on the exact scale as Pedroia and Garciaparra. He actually has an earlier birthday than either of them.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on May 18, 2016 5:38:54 GMT -5
To be fair, Benintendi was also a draft-eligible sophmore and thus at least part of a year younger and less experienced than Pedroia/Ellsbury. A year less experienced, yes. But the reason he was draft eligible as a sophomore was because of his age. So in strict terms of age advancement, reaching Double-A in a year he turns 22 puts him on the exact scale as Pedroia and Garciaparra. He actually has an earlier birthday than either of them. on top of that some are complaining about 6 weeks, 6 weeks? Come-on. (not a game not a game but practice....)
|
|
|
Post by borisman on May 18, 2016 6:05:08 GMT -5
I mentioned this before, but I don't think the Sox have ever skipped A+ with a prospect. So, you could argue that he should've started in Greenville last year and been promoted to Salem (the Pedroia Track) to be ready to start in Portland this year, but I think the chance of his skipping Salem completely were very, very low. And, while it's easy to forget now, there was some reasonable question about how good he was out of the gate because of the relatively limited run of success. So starting him in Lowell wasn't crazy. In hindsight, he could've started at Greenville and gone through both levels of full-season A ball last year (or just skipped Greenville after Lowell since it's not that much more advanced than short-season, if at all), but whatever. Six weeks in Salem didn't kill the kid's drive or anything. I'm not sure if you are referring to a positional prospect or not but Craig Hansen flew through the system, no A-ball needed.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2016 8:53:06 GMT -5
I mentioned this before, but I don't think the Sox have ever skipped A+ with a prospect. So, you could argue that he should've started in Greenville last year and been promoted to Salem (the Pedroia Track) to be ready to start in Portland this year, but I think the chance of his skipping Salem completely were very, very low. And, while it's easy to forget now, there was some reasonable question about how good he was out of the gate because of the relatively limited run of success. So starting him in Lowell wasn't crazy. In hindsight, he could've started at Greenville and gone through both levels of full-season A ball last year (or just skipped Greenville after Lowell since it's not that much more advanced than short-season, if at all), but whatever. Six weeks in Salem didn't kill the kid's drive or anything. Stunningly, I agree with Brian. I think the bolded sums it up - the Sox kind of locked themselves into a conservative promotion track by sending him to Lowell in the first place. I do get wanting to keep the player from feeling too much pressure by pushing him too fast, but he very, very clearly did not belong in Lowell. It may also have been a factor that he had not hit with wood before so they wanted him to get used to it there. If he'd been healthy the summer after his freshman year and played in a summer league with wood bats, there's probably a better chance he goes right to Greenville.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on May 18, 2016 22:10:51 GMT -5
I mentioned this before, but I don't think the Sox have ever skipped A+ with a prospect. So, you could argue that he should've started in Greenville last year and been promoted to Salem (the Pedroia Track) to be ready to start in Portland this year, but I think the chance of his skipping Salem completely were very, very low. And, while it's easy to forget now, there was some reasonable question about how good he was out of the gate because of the relatively limited run of success. So starting him in Lowell wasn't crazy. In hindsight, he could've started at Greenville and gone through both levels of full-season A ball last year (or just skipped Greenville after Lowell since it's not that much more advanced than short-season, if at all), but whatever. Six weeks in Salem didn't kill the kid's drive or anything. Stunningly, I agree with Brian. I think the bolded sums it up - the Sox kind of locked themselves into a conservative promotion track by sending him to Lowell in the first place. I do get wanting to keep the player from feeling too much pressure by pushing him too fast, but he very, very clearly did not belong in Lowell. It may also have been a factor that he had not hit with wood before so they wanted him to get used to it there. If he'd been healthy the summer after his freshman year and played in a summer league with wood bats, there's probably a better chance he goes right to Greenville. The conversion to a wooden bat was a concern and was discussed shortly after drafting him. Easing a transition from College to Professional ball should not be understated and that goes beyond the game itself but a life transition change too. JBJ is a good example, I said it at the time his promotion was foolish and mentioned the 50 or so at-bats he had at AA at the end of the season before a fantastic spring training caused the Sox to make a stupid move and promote him before his time and it set him back about a year and a half. Promoting a player is not about the player being ready it's about the team ready to receive that player after he's ready. It's about the needs of the team in conjunction with the player being ready. It's also about the cycle of contention that the team is currently in verse time ticking against the arbitration clock for said player. Far to often fans look at it from a selfish perspective to satisfy their current flavor of the month when the definition of maturity is putting off instant gratification for future gain, "Delayed gratification, or deferred gratification, is the ability to resist the temptation for an immediate reward and wait for a later reward. Generally, delayed gratification is associated with resisting a smaller but more immediate reward in order to receive a larger or more enduring reward later.[1] A growing body of literature has linked the ability to delay gratification to a host of other positive outcomes, including academic success, physical health, psychological health, and social competence."
|
|
|