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Margot vs. Benintendi debate
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Post by jmei on Oct 25, 2015 18:27:09 GMT -5
If you disagree with another poster, there is no need to repeat that disagreement every time a topic comes up. Thanks.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 25, 2015 18:31:16 GMT -5
The same could be said about Margot's contact rate and how that relates to him actually being a high percentage OBP guy in the majors. So far he has not put up big OBP numbers in the minors. He seems to have the raw material but it hasn't converted to a plus .400 OBP yet at any level. Again, he has been extremely young so maybe after he settles in as a 23-24 year old player and gets more age appropriate for his level he achieves more on base success. It is real tough to do that though and we have seen many players put up gaudy OBP numbers in the minors only to have them drop like a rock in the majors. Even with out of this world OBP numbers in the minors, Betts has settled in as about a .350 OBP guy so far. If Margot's OBP numbers drop by 50 points like Bett's numbers have since he made the majors, Margot will be a .275-.300 OBP guy. I just don't see a lot of reason to think he will ever be a high OBP guy. Maybe some years with that great contact rate some hits fall the right way for him but he will have to change a lot as a hitter to ever be a high OBP guy to me, but he is very young so that does give us hope for him still. A great contact rate relates to having a good batting average. You need to walk to have a good OBP. Betts will probably have a .400 OBP season at some point because he'll start walking more eventually IMO. Margot won't be in the majors if he has an under .300 OBP. His BABIP was a bit low this year so it's probably a good bet that he'll be better than that in other years. There's really no reason to compare Margot and Betts and just assume that Margot's OBP will fall exactly the same amount that Betts' did in just one season. Why not compare him to Shaw instead and say that his slugging should improve about 150 points once he moves from AAA to the majors?
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Post by telson13 on Oct 25, 2015 22:33:07 GMT -5
I really don't understand what's so hard to grasp about not trusting low-A stats as reasonable predictors of future success. Look at Bryce Brentz. 30 HR, 25 doubles, and an OPS around .950 split between Greenville and Salem...and he hit .359 in Greenvile. His first full season, at age 22...or just six months older than Benintendi will be at that time next year. Raw power's still there, but game power isn't and probably never will be. Benintendi hasn't proven anything more than that he can hit low-A pitching for power. His BB:K rate plummeted when he moved up to Greenville (although 1:1 is still excellent). The predictive value of his stats in low A is essentially nil. It's better than a cruddy debut, for sure...but Mookie is proof enough that a mediocre first season doesn't mean all that much either. Put Margot in Greenville for the season and he'd probably have gone .350/.400/.550, with 70SB. Their STATISTICS can't reasonably be compared until Benintendi has at least another full season and has begun to catch up.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 26, 2015 6:35:54 GMT -5
Steamer projects Margot to have an 88 wRC+ this year and Benintendi a 58, so it's settled. Margot wins for now.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 26, 2015 7:16:47 GMT -5
I really don't understand what's so hard to grasp about not trusting low-A stats as reasonable predictors of future success. Look at Bryce Brentz. 30 HR, 25 doubles, and an OPS around .950 split between Greenville and Salem...and he hit .359 in Greenvile. His first full season, at age 22...or just six months older than Benintendi will be at that time next year. Raw power's still there, but game power isn't and probably never will be. Benintendi hasn't proven anything more than that he can hit low-A pitching for power. His BB:K rate plummeted when he moved up to Greenville (although 1:1 is still excellent). The predictive value of his stats in low A is essentially nil. It's better than a cruddy debut, for sure...but Mookie is proof enough that a mediocre first season doesn't mean all that much either. Put Margot in Greenville for the season and he'd probably have gone .350/.400/.550, with 70SB. Their STATISTICS can't reasonably be compared until Benintendi has at least another full season and has begun to catch up. I sympathize with this but it seems a little overstated. Benintendi's stats are better than Brentz', in ways that suggest (suggest!) that he will be a better hitter. "The predictive value of his stats in low A is" not "essentially nil," but rather it's limited. His value as a prospect is much higher than Brentz' ever was. On Benintendi vs Margot you are 100% right.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 26, 2015 14:37:22 GMT -5
I had to look it up. AB & Margot a literally the same height & weight.....MM has AB by one inch in height. 5' 10" & 170lbs...Also I read that Div 1 baseball is equivalent to somewhere between high A & AA.....I know this doesn't mean much here, just saying that AB hasn't exactly been playing in a Mexican League or Indy League somewhere.
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Post by borisman on Oct 26, 2015 15:10:29 GMT -5
I had to look it up. AB & Margot a literally the same height & weight.....MM has AB by one inch in height. 5' 10" & 170lbs...Also I read that Div 1 baseball is equivalent to somewhere between high A & AA.....I know this doesn't mean much here, just saying that AB hasn't exactly been playing in a Mexican League or Indy League somewhere. Beni played only two years and those were spent in the SEC where some of the best talent is. People were skeptical as he came out of nowhere (he WAS smaller as a freshman) but there were many believers here as they cited his level of competition. And he didn't disappoint in his pro debut. Even the talent evaluators were in awe of his production. He may be kind of like Mookie, just be a freak, regardless of his measurables. Margot may be a freak (not in JBJ's class) in the outfield but I'm not sure he'll be one at the plate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2015 15:49:14 GMT -5
Disagree that D-I is between High A and Double-A. Consider that if D-I baseball were somewhere between High A and Double-A, that most of the college guys go to the NYPL and don't necessarily dominate. I'd guess that the SEC, as one of the top conferences, might be the equivalent of somewhere between Low A and a bad High A team though.
And I was about to make a point about midweek starters and early season games, but Benintendi was better in the SEC than he was in non-conference games, so... there ya go.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 26, 2015 17:44:37 GMT -5
Benintendi was/is ready for high A. I may be forgetting someone but I don't think anyone else showed they were ready for that level in the college class this year. Bregman struggled there.
The SEC is very good competition, but once you factor in the transition to wood bats and pro ball in general, no chance D1 is A+ equivalent, nor are the games directly comparable.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 26, 2015 19:48:59 GMT -5
If Margot reaches his 'expected' ceiling of a first division starter in CF, but Bradley and Betts are in CF and RF, is Margot STILL a first division starter in LF? Or does he become a 2nd division starter/platoon player until there is an opening?
In this situation does Benintendi's superior power tilt the scales in his favor? (also being a LHH would make him the strong side of a platoon)
Above deanlefebvre says that Margot and Beni are 5'10" and 5'9" respectively, but their player pages list them as 6'0" and 5'10". Are these heights accurate?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 26, 2015 22:19:58 GMT -5
I think I generally agree with Chris on the level of division one ball but overall the SEC is probably one of the very best division one conferences and Benintendi just demolished that league. He was Baseball America college player of the year and the Dick Howser Trophy winner as college player of the year, the Golden Spikes Award winner, and several other top college awards. In 2014, Kris Bryant was the Dick Howser winner. Look at the many awards this guy won last year just in college alone: www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/roster/andrew-benintendi/No one is thinking Benintendi is as good a player as Kris Bryant but consider that Bryant played in about the same number of games in a lower level competition schedule but Kris Bryant hit for a lower BA, a lower slugging rate, 6 fewer HR, and basically hit worse across the board than Benintendi their last year in college. Benintendi also stole 24 out of 28 bases last year at Arkansas. Benintendi's year was kind of a statistical outlier. No one else was even close last year. Of course Benintendi was considered the closest to the majors of last year's college player picks. If the SEC is a Greenville equivalent league and Benintendi demolished it, maybe he should jump right to Salem. That's what I would do with him next year.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 27, 2015 1:11:12 GMT -5
I really don't understand what's so hard to grasp about not trusting low-A stats as reasonable predictors of future success. Look at Bryce Brentz. 30 HR, 25 doubles, and an OPS around .950 split between Greenville and Salem...and he hit .359 in Greenvile. His first full season, at age 22...or just six months older than Benintendi will be at that time next year. Raw power's still there, but game power isn't and probably never will be. Benintendi hasn't proven anything more than that he can hit low-A pitching for power. His BB:K rate plummeted when he moved up to Greenville (although 1:1 is still excellent). The predictive value of his stats in low A is essentially nil. It's better than a cruddy debut, for sure...but Mookie is proof enough that a mediocre first season doesn't mean all that much either. Put Margot in Greenville for the season and he'd probably have gone .350/.400/.550, with 70SB. Their STATISTICS can't reasonably be compared until Benintendi has at least another full season and has begun to catch up. I sympathize with this but it seems a little overstated. Benintendi's stats are better than Brentz', in ways that suggest (suggest!) that he will be a better hitter. "The predictive value of his stats in low A is" not "essentially nil," but rather it's limited. His value as a prospect is much higher than Brentz' ever was. On Benintendi vs Margot you are 100% right. Oh, trust me, Im not saying Brentz was ever the prospect Benintendi is. It isn't close, even after Brentz's great year. My point is that, because Benintendi now (and Brentz then) had relatively little pro experience, their "prospect status" was (is) still largely determined by scouting reports, informed by but with essentially no dependence on, statistics. Yeah, I exaggerated how unimportant the stats are/were, but even after Brentz's great year there were still huge questions about his hit tool, and had Benintendi absolutely struggled, he would have lost a little--but not much--luster. A player's first half-season in pro ball means little statistically, it's really much more important in terms of verifying/clarifying scouting. FWIW, I do think Benintendi at least answered the question of whether he could hit for power with wood bats...so that's a plus. But his power numbers for the year, 31 HR or no, don't necessarily accurately predict his MLB power potential. Mookie showed zero XB power in Lowell...and hit 18 at age 22 in MLB. Bogaerts hit 16 at Greenville in a half-season, and hit just seven in over 600 PAs this year. Hell, Jeff Bagwell had 4 HR in Beehive (and that was AA)before he was traded, and went on to become one if the best power hitters in baseball. There just isn't much predictive value in scouting the box score early in a player's career, especially in low A. The *pattern* of power, and the wood bat adjustment, for Benintendi is nice, but until he does it for another full year, I'm more inclined to trust the scouting report of "50-55" power. Remember Frankie Rodriguez and his 28 HR as a SS in jr college? Or Jeff McNeely? Or Bubba Bell (OK, not fair, that was Lancaster)? I'm as excited about Benintendi as just about anyone. I loved him as a pick, and I love that his debut was consistent with his scouting report, maybe even a bit better. But I put almost no stock in those statistics on their own...I just feel better about the accuracy of his scouting reports and his ability to reach his projected ceiling. Side note: I think his hit tool and power were probably underrated a tiny bit leading into the draft, because of his age and lack of exposure (and wood bat questions). So you're right, the stats don't mean essentially nil, because if he'd struggled I'd be more inclined to have bought into the questions about his abilities. But they certainly haven't remotely erased those doubts in my mind.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 27, 2015 1:32:14 GMT -5
I think I generally agree with Chris on the level of division one ball but overall the SEC is probably one of the very best division one conferences and Benintendi just demolished that league. He was Baseball America college player of the year and the Dick Howser Trophy winner as college player of the year, the Golden Spikes Award winner, and several other top college awards. In 2014, Kris Bryant was the Dick Howser winner. Look at the many awards this guy won last year just in college alone: www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/roster/andrew-benintendi/No one is thinking Benintendi is as good a player as Kris Bryant but consider that Bryant played in about the same number of games in a lower level competition schedule but Kris Bryant hit for a lower BA, a lower slugging rate, 6 fewer HR, and basically hit worse across the board than Benintendi their last year in college. Benintendi also stole 24 out of 28 bases last year at Arkansas. Benintendi's year was kind of a statistical outlier. No one else was even close last year. Of course Benintendi was considered the closest to the majors of last year's college player picks. If the SEC is a Greenville equivalent league and Benintendi demolished it, maybe he should jump right to Salem. That's what I would do with him next year. Kris Bryant hit 31 HR as a jr. Benintendi had 6 more HR as a sophomore, yes, but Bryant was also seven months younger as a sophomore. And Bryant is 6'5". I obviously doubt Benintendi will ever approach Bryant's power. As for being as good a player...well, it's certainly possible if AB turns out to develop an 80 hit tool, to go with 60 power, and above-avg CF defense. But yeah, it's unlikely. I think the issue with looking at the stats is that as a player gets higher on the ladder, more exceptional tools are required to be "outstanding." So Benintendi's 55-60 speed is far above average for even D1, and he can rack up SBs (Bryant was 18 for 21 in steals as a freshman, btw)...but once at the MLB level, he's just a tick above average, and probably will be hard-pressed to tally 20 SB in 2.5 times as many games. Certain "tools" (defense, baserunning, hitting/pitch selection) can be learned and refined, but others (pure speed, raw power, and probably reaction time/spin recognition) are much more limited by inherent traits. As for starting the year in Salem, I absolutely agree. And tbh, I don't think he'll be there very long. I think his Salem line is going to look a lot like Greenville did, and then the real test is going to come in Portland in June.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 27, 2015 1:53:52 GMT -5
If Margot reaches his 'expected' ceiling of a first division starter in CF, but Bradley and Betts are in CF and RF, is Margot STILL a first division starter in LF? Yes. Because of the shortage of power-hitting corner OFers and the increasing emphasis on defense, players lose a lot less value than they used to when they move from center to a corner.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 27, 2015 11:23:58 GMT -5
Just so we're all clear, both of these guys are trade bait with Dombrowski in the saddle, yes?
Like many here I saw Heyman's wish-casting this past weekend but I cannot believe Benintendi is anymore "untouchable" than Margot. He's certainly not a guy anyone would build a major deal around where as Margot, who has been ranked among the top 25 players in the minors, is. That said if Cleveland or Oakland's GM says I must build a deal around Benintendi for Carrasco/Salazar/Gray. Dombrowski would be hemming and hawwing on the phone while he continues to horse trade but is passing a note to an intern to drive Benintendi to the airport.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 27, 2015 12:13:15 GMT -5
I'd offer either one of them for Carrasco along with some other pieces, Maybe a Holt or Marrero. Give them the choice. Remember we offered Scott Cooper OR Jeff Bagwell to Houston? I can see Beni being another Grady Sizemore.
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Post by borisman on Oct 27, 2015 15:20:30 GMT -5
I'd offer either one of them for Carrasco along with some other pieces, Maybe a Holt or Marrero. Give them the choice. Remember we offered Scott Cooper OR Jeff Bagwell to Houston? I can see Beni being another Grady Sizemore. There are two Grady Sizemores. Which one are you referring to?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 27, 2015 16:13:23 GMT -5
And what kind of numbers would Margot put up in Greenville right now? You can't hold it against him that he's playing 2 levels above Benintendi even though he's younger. This is true. My concern when looking at the age advancement is we're talking about a 2.5 month difference in age, year difference in development that's almost entirely due to the fact Margot started in the system at a younger age. Margot is not in AA because he "started in the system at a younger age." He's in AA because he started young, then jumped from the DSL to Lowell, skipping the GCL, and then in the last two years he has been good enough to advance three levels, and have impressive success at each, despite at least one injury. He's a year ahead of a guy who might have started in Lowell at age 18 and advanced one level per year. That guy would be age-advanced, but Margot is ahead of him. He's a great CF putting up decent numbers in AA before turning 21. I'd agree he's done nothing to show he's Mookie, but that's like saying Mookie stinks because he's not Trout. The people downplaying his numbers and age advancement just really puzzle me. Ellis Burks played CF in AA at age 20 and had 17sb and 14cs and hit .254 .316 .399 .715. In 18 mlb seasons he hit .291 .363 .510 .874 with 352 hrs. Andrew McCutchen played most of his age 20 season in cf in AA and hit .258 .327 .383 .710, then hit a little better in 17 g at AAA: .313 .347 .418 .765. He was listed as Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 170 before he was drafted. We all love Benintendi. Why we all don't love Margot is a great mystery.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2015 16:39:48 GMT -5
Interesting thing to think about. Of the players signed around when Margot was (we'll go his class and the class before), here's where they've reached:
MLB: Jonathan Aro (signed June 2011, DOB 10/10/90) AAA: None (essentially) AA: Manuel Margot (signed July 2011, DOB 9/28/94); Simon Mercedes (signed March 2, 2012, DOB 2/17/92); Tzu-wei Lin (signed June 27, 2012, DOB 2/15/94); Heri Quevedo (signed June 25, 2012, DOB 6/7/90); Aneury Tavarez (signed Oct. 2010, DOB 4/14/92) (I'm not counting his brief AAA call-up) A+: Cleuluis Rondon (CHW) (signed Nov. 2010, DOB 4/13/94); Deiner Lopez (signed Sept. 1, 2010, DOB 5/30/94); Daniel McGrath (signed Feb. 7, 2012, DOB 7/7/94) Everyone else was either cut or has reached no higher than Low A (this includes trades players Raymel Flores & Luis Ortega; Jeremias Pineda reached Low A last year and spent this year in Mexico).
So the moral, I think, is what jimoh says - it's not that he got in the system sooner, but that he's excelled, as most of his peers are still a level or two lower, unless they were signed old. Lin was pushed because of his glove, but has not performed nearly as well. I'd also argue that he's being pushed by the players behind him, and would have spent the year in Salem if not for the need to get Dubon regular reps at short.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2015 17:03:19 GMT -5
Also, I'd been meaning to check: AA players this season, by age: 1. Julio Urias, 8/12/96 (68.1 IP at the level plus 2 short AAA starts, a top 10 prospect in the game) 2. Jake Bauers, 10/6/95 (285 PA at the level, I'm guessing he'll make Top 100 lists) 3. Raul Mondesi, 7/27/95 (338 PA at the level, will become first MLB player to make his debut during a World Series, probably a top 30 prospect) 4. Ronald Herrera, 5/3/95 (43.2 IP at the level) 5. Nomar Mazara, 4/26/95 (470 PA at the level plus 88 in AAA, probably a top 20 prospect) 6. Conner Greene, 4/4/95 (25 IP at the level and got rocked) (also according to this he's a model and actor as well: jaysprospects.com/2015/08/13/conner-greene/)7. JP Crawford, 1/11/95 (405 PA at the level, Top 10 prospect in the game) 8. Manuel Margot, 9/28/94 9. Tyler Danish, 9/12/94 (142 IP at the level, wasn't great) 10. Alex Reyes, 8/29/94 (34.2 IP at the level, a Top 20 prospect in the game) 11. Billy McKinney, 8/23/94 (308 PA at the level, a Top 50 prospect in the game) 12. Orlando Arcia, 8/4/94 (552 PA at the level, a Top 20 prospect in the game) 13. Lucas Giolito, 7/14/94 (47.1 IP at the level, Top 10 prospect in the game) Of course, Carlos Correa (9/22/94), Roberto Osuna (2/7/95), and Miguel Castro (12/24/94) played in MLB this year, so let's call him the 10th-youngest player with qualifying playing time in AA or higher this year? Nobody listed as being age 20 on BRef played in AAA.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 27, 2015 18:24:20 GMT -5
This is true. My concern when looking at the age advancement is we're talking about a 2.5 month difference in age, year difference in development that's almost entirely due to the fact Margot started in the system at a younger age. Margot is not in AA because he "started in the system at a younger age." He's in AA because he started young, then jumped from the DSL to Lowell, skipping the GCL, and then in the last two years he has been good enough to advance three levels, and have impressive success at each, despite at least one injury. He's a year ahead of a guy who might have started in Lowell at age 18 and advanced one level per year. That guy would be age-advanced, but Margot is ahead of him. He's a great CF putting up decent numbers in AA before turning 21. I'd agree he's done nothing to show he's Mookie, but that's like saying Mookie stinks because he's not Trout. The people downplaying his numbers and age advancement just really puzzle me. Ellis Burks played CF in AA at age 20 and had 17sb and 14cs and hit .254 .316 .399 .715. In 18 mlb seasons he hit .291 .363 .510 .874 with 352 hrs. Andrew McCutchen played most of his age 20 season in cf in AA and hit .258 .327 .383 .710, then hit a little better in 17 g at AAA: .313 .347 .418 .765. He was listed as Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 170 before he was drafted. We all love Benintendi. Why we all don't love Margot is a great mystery. This and the two following posts by Chris confirm for me that Manny Margot has earned his ranking. Although he is considered an excellent trade candidate for a SP (hopefully not for a RP), the team might be wise to hang onto him and see how well he and Beni develop, eventually side by side. That would put the Sox in the driver's seat in terms of both OF talent and high level future trades.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 27, 2015 22:27:40 GMT -5
Guidas! Don't trade Benintendi on us!
But feel free to move Margot by morning!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 28, 2015 2:26:55 GMT -5
Guidas! Don't trade Benintendi on us! But feel free to move Margot by morning! LoL, I hope. The Sox may need Margot before Beni (another killer bee) is fully ready.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 28, 2015 8:02:20 GMT -5
Guidas! Don't trade Benintendi on us! But feel free to move Margot by morning! LoL, I hope. The Sox may need Margot before Beni (another killer bee) is fully ready. Agreed....Let's hold on to the top guys (Owens, Johnson, Kopech, Margot, Moncada, AB, ect) & sign a Smardzjia type guy...IF we can get Carrasco, then I'd let go of only Margot & some smaller pieces, maybe Guerra &/or Holt, then replace him with Marrero. By letting Margot go, we are almost forced to keep all 3 of our OF JBJ, MB & Castillo. Still need to sign a 4 OF.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 28, 2015 8:06:53 GMT -5
Guidas! Don't trade Benintendi on us! But feel free to move Margot by morning! I think the casino is open for Diamond Dave Dombrowski and we have no idea how he'll be dealing.
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