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9/21-9/24 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Sept 21, 2015 11:26:32 GMT -5
9/21 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 9-6 3.94) vs. Rays (RHP Chris Archer 12-12 2.95) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/22 Red Sox (LHP Henry Owens 3-2 4.33) vs. Rays (LHP Matt Moore 1-4 7.06) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/MLBN/WEEI9/23 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 8-13 5.16) vs. Rays (LHP Drew Smyly 3-2 3.64) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/24 Red Sox (LHP Wade Miley 11-10 4.34) vs. Rays (RHP Erasmo Ramirez 10-6 3.70) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2015 11:39:55 GMT -5
14 games left. Gotta go 10-4 to reach .500.
What the heck. Gotta have goals, right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2015 11:42:15 GMT -5
Redsox.com shows no indication of either a 6th starter or a bullpen game. On another note, the Monte Carlo analysis on fangraphs.com gives a 99.9% chance that neither TB nor BOS makes the playoffs. So these are good games to rest some folks. Including pitchers. Response: No, Ya Gotta Believe !! Sweep !!! Moving this from the last gameday thread. At the start of the last series, I'd thought if they were going to do a bullpen game, you'd probably do it on Thursday, because you're probably going to try and keep Porcello on his schedule. They've got Miley as the probable starter for Thursday, so if you do that, you can do the following. Rays: Rodriguez/Owens/Porcello/Miley Orioles: Hill/bullpen/Rodriguez Yankees: Porcello/Miley/Owens/Hill Indians: bullpen game/Porcello/Miley Limits Rodriguez and Owens to two more starts. Better than the plan I had. EDIT: By the way, Jon, this series is four games and goes through Thursday. EDIT2: Lovullo confirms that the bullpen games won't come against the Yankees: www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/lovullo-respecting-playoff-race-pitching-schedule
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Post by jchang on Sept 21, 2015 12:48:59 GMT -5
14 games left. Gotta go 10-4 to reach .500. What the heck. Gotta have goals, right? play the young guys and still sweep the last 14. Knock mfy out.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 21, 2015 12:55:48 GMT -5
14 games left. Gotta go 10-4 to reach .500. What the heck. Gotta have goals, right? .500 would be nice, but I have two wishes: 1) Third place; 2) Beat the Yankees. So, basically, win all three series against AL East opponents, and I'll be good.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 21, 2015 14:05:39 GMT -5
Priorities:
1) Beat the Yankees 2) Beat the Yankees 3) Beat the Yankees 4) Save the protected pick
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 21, 2015 15:57:35 GMT -5
Either win out and blow up the entire postseason or just lose every game by pitching Craig Breslow in every game.
If they win out they would have played the post-trade deadline span at a 108-win season rate. Even now they've played at a 90-win rate since then.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2015 16:49:56 GMT -5
4) Save the protected pick In a vaccuum, I definitely understand, but remember, it only matters if the team is going to sign a QO free agent. But it makes sense to see what the list is even going to look like. Right now, I'd guess that the QO players look something like this: Chris Davis Jason Heyward Justin Upton (Alex Gordon if he turns down player option at $12.5M) Zack Greinke Hisashi Iwakuma Jeff Samardzija Jordan Zimmermann Did I miss anyone? www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2016-free-agents/Meanwhile, Cespedes, Cueto, Price, and others can't get offered a QO because they were traded midseason. So I guess it'd be nice to have that protected pick if you are going to do something like sign a Davis or one of the other SPs. I don't think it's critical though and think that the young guys playing well enough to win is worth more.
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Post by thursty on Sept 21, 2015 16:57:26 GMT -5
4) Save the protected pick In a vaccuum, I definitely understand, but remember, it only matters if the team is going to sign a QO free agent. But it makes sense to see what the list is even going to look like. Right now, I'd guess that the QO players look something like this: Chris Davis Jason Heyward Justin Upton (Alex Gordon if he turns down player option at $12.5M) Zack Greinke Hisashi Iwakuma Jeff Samardzija Jordan Zimmermann Did I miss anyone? www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2016-free-agents/Meanwhile, Cespedes, Cueto, Price, and others can't get offered a QO because they were traded midseason. So I guess it'd be nice to have that protected pick if you are going to do something like sign a Davis or one of the other SPs. I don't think it's critical though and think that the young guys playing well enough to win is worth more. Chen maybe? even Lackey
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2015 17:04:10 GMT -5
Forgot Lackey. Good call.
Chen... maybe? Yeah that's a weird one.
On Twitter, Mike Ferrin mentioned Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo, and Ian Desmond, although I think Desmond's a no.
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Post by thursty on Sept 21, 2015 17:08:23 GMT -5
Forgot Lackey. Good call. Chen... maybe? Yeah that's a weird one. On Twitter, Mike Ferrin mentioned Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo, and Ian Desmond, although I think Desmond's a no. Yeah, Gallardo's a no brainer. It's pretty much the definition of low-risk - no one's taken it yet (of course there's self-selection)
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 21, 2015 17:10:31 GMT -5
Priorities: 1) Beat the Yankees 2) Beat the Yankees 3) Beat the Yankees 4) Save the protected pick So what you're basically saying is, "I hope the young kids who are the core of the next 5 years Sox teams perform poorly over the next 3 weeks." Which, you know, is a defensible position, but to me the protected pick comes in second to building a foundation of success for the team going forward.
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Post by thursty on Sept 21, 2015 17:17:24 GMT -5
It's going to be a weird offseason - you can't have like 8 pitchers sign $100 contracts can you? A couple of pitchers I predict are going to be left standing when the musical chairs end.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 21, 2015 17:20:38 GMT -5
Iwakuma won't get $100M at his age and considering he missed part of this year.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 21, 2015 18:05:03 GMT -5
Priorities: 1) Beat the Yankees 2) Beat the Yankees 3) Beat the Yankees 4) Save the protected pick So what you're basically saying is, "I hope the young kids who are the core of the next 5 years Sox teams perform poorly over the next 3 weeks." Which, you know, is a defensible position, but to me the protected pick comes in second to building a foundation of success for the team going forward. YES, YES, YES Brian! The foundation that the kids are forming over the last couple of months is priceless. There really is no comparison at this time. If not now, when? These kids have got to raise their game....they have! These kids need to believe they can compete and win.....they are! That darn protected pick is no substitution for what they have accomplished lately.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 21, 2015 21:17:46 GMT -5
Taking Layne out and putting Ogando in for Jaso...
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 21, 2015 21:21:55 GMT -5
So what you're basically saying is, "I hope the young kids who are the core of the next 5 years Sox teams perform poorly over the next 3 weeks." Which, you know, is a defensible position, but to me the protected pick comes in second to building a foundation of success for the team going forward. YES, YES, YES Brian! The foundation that the kids are forming over the last couple of months is priceless. There really is no comparison at this time. If not now, when? These kids have got to raise their game....they have! These kids need to believe they can compete and win.....they are! That darn protected pick is no substitution for what they have accomplished lately. I'll say this again -- it isn't just the protected pick. It's ALL the picks. Going into tonight's game, with two weeks left there were 8 other teams within 3 games of the Sox one way or the other. EIGHT. I'd like to have picks ahead of as many of those 8 teams as possible. This team has drafted so well, that having the strategic advantage of picking several picks earlier each round and not having a couple of players snatched just ahead of us might be the type of advantage that this organization can really leverage.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 21, 2015 21:23:27 GMT -5
Taking Layne out and putting Ogando in for Jaso... They are giving up on the game for sure with Ogando being kept in.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 21, 2015 21:34:30 GMT -5
Well, this is a great game for the bullpen to be giving away. The kids continue to contribute. They now know they can play in the bigs, and the fact that the Sox bullpen is basically a patched-together mess at this point that is going to cough up games shouldn't affect their mojo all that much. So the kids can play well and the Sox can still stay in the lower echelons of MLB. They only have to finish one game worse than another club to jump them in the draft order.
This is a great year to accidentally/subconsciously tank because the lower middle of the standings are so tightly bunched that a couple of games are likely to make a significant difference in the club's draft position. There are other years where the way the standings are distributed your position is locked up within a position or two at this point. Not this year, in the place the Sox are situated.
EDIT: Well, the kids aren't going to let the pen give the game away THAT easily!!
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Sept 21, 2015 21:49:48 GMT -5
Wow!
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 21, 2015 21:50:09 GMT -5
Lord almighty Xander, that's all
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 21, 2015 21:52:12 GMT -5
Stud
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Post by imnothipp on Sept 21, 2015 21:53:24 GMT -5
Xan the man.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 21, 2015 22:03:21 GMT -5
Yeah, now to see how we're going to get 3 outs in the 9th.
Breslow? Machi to continue? I presume Ross isn't available tonight.
Sometimes this bullpen feels like playing Russian Roulette, where only one chamber of the gun DOESN'T have a bullet.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Sept 21, 2015 22:05:02 GMT -5
Yeah, now to see how we're going to get 3 outs in the 9th. Breslow? Machi to continue? I presume Ross isn't available tonight. Sometimes this bullpen feels like playing Russian Roulette, where only one chamber of the gun DOESN'T have a bullet. Bang.
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