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9/21-9/24 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by soxfanatic on Sept 23, 2015 16:07:46 GMT -5
BETTS PEDROIA XANDER ORTIZ SHAW CASTILLO SWIHART MARRERO 3B BRADLEY PORCELLO RHP facing the lefty, Pablo and Holt sit. Sandoval actually has a respiratory infection an will not play the coming days.
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 23, 2015 17:51:24 GMT -5
Yep, got a hot dog stuck in his sinus cavity. So it goes.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2015 17:59:23 GMT -5
The Sox are a better team any time Hanley and Panda sit. Sad but true.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 23, 2015 19:57:16 GMT -5
Xander has some work to do to get his daily two hits in.
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Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2015 20:11:39 GMT -5
I grow increasingly convinced that Porcello's struggles with men on base are real. Dude is just a worse pitcher out of the stretch.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2015 21:22:36 GMT -5
I grow increasingly convinced that Porcello's struggles with men on base are real. Dude is just a worse pitcher out of the stretch. In general I agree, but he did a really good job tonight pitching around base hits. A couple double plays bailed him out, sure, but he also had four strikeouts from the stretch tonight. He also had a pretty crummy BABIP with the bases empty tonight too (which led to more pitches thrown fom the stretch), and there isn't really any history of that being a thing for him.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 23, 2015 22:01:28 GMT -5
Am I the only one throwing things at Lovullo for horrible management of pitching?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2015 22:13:21 GMT -5
Am I the only one throwing things at Lovullo for horrible management of pitching? What would you have done differently tonight? Personally, I might not have brought Porcello out for the eighth, but given the standings and situation I also might have. Everything with the bullpen was pretty standard though. Layne didn't really get the job done but he's generally been reliable.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 24, 2015 6:22:57 GMT -5
Am I the only one throwing things at Lovullo for horrible management of pitching? What would you have done differently tonight? Personally, I might not have brought Porcello out for the eighth, but given the standings and situation I also might have. Everything with the bullpen was pretty standard though. Layne didn't really get the job done but he's generally been reliable. I can certainly see your case. I didn't want Porcello to start the 8th for a selfish reason. I wanted his "line" to look good, but the more I thought about it and what Lovullo has been doing....it made sense. Lovullo has a better chance for the Sox to win if he stays away from that lousy pen......and he is "stretching" the starters out which I like. Farrell, at times, was too quick in pulling guys. It is nice to see a manager push his starters into becoming more of a 7+ inning pitcher than the normal settling for 6.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 6:31:20 GMT -5
What would you have done differently tonight? Personally, I might not have brought Porcello out for the eighth, but given the standings and situation I also might have. Everything with the bullpen was pretty standard though. Layne didn't really get the job done but he's generally been reliable. I can certainly see your case. I didn't want Porcello to start the 8th for a selfish reason. I wanted his "line" to look good, but the more I thought about it and what Lovullo has been doing....it made sense. Lovullo has a better chance for the Sox to win if he stays away from that lousy pen......and he is "stretching" the starters out which I like. Farrell, at times, was too quick in pulling guys. It is nice to see a manager push his starters into becoming more of a 7+ inning pitcher than the normal settling for 6. I'm sorry, but I don't agree. Unless a pitcher is almost unhittable or most of the bullpen is unavailable, they should always come out after the 3rd time through the order. Every time a pitcher falls apart like the last two games, it's always the 4th time through. It's so predictable. There is no point in doing it, except to frustrate the pitcher. I don't care how bad the bullpen is, it's still better than the starter the 4th time through the order.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 24, 2015 8:03:00 GMT -5
Even when the team is out of contention and the pitcher could use innings/reps? If I thought Porcello was some wilting flower with poise issues then I might be worried. But he's a really confident dude who is working out stuff and the bullpen stinks.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 24, 2015 8:20:17 GMT -5
BETTS PEDROIA XANDER ORTIZ SHAW CASTILLO SWIHART MARRERO 3B BRADLEY PORCELLO RHP facing the lefty, Pablo and Holt sit. Sandoval actually has a respiratory infection an will not play the coming days. Maybe if we're lucky and he isn't feeling well he won't feel like eating and he'll lose a little weight. Of course, the offseason is coming fast, and for Panda, I suspect that does NOT mean that a fast is coming, so it probably makes no difference at this point.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 8:28:41 GMT -5
Even when the team is out of contention and the pitcher could use innings/reps? If I thought Porcello was some wilting flower with poise issues then I might be worried. But he's a really confident dude who is working out stuff and the bullpen stinks. I'm not even sure where the stats are, but I bet opposing batters are hitting about .400 off him for the 4th time through if I had to guess. I don't know how that does him any good. I'm not worried about him, but I can't imagine it's good for confidence. Edit - it's on b-ref. 21 PAs for 4th+ appearance. Batters are hitting .450/.476/.700 against him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 24, 2015 8:29:34 GMT -5
I can certainly see your case. I didn't want Porcello to start the 8th for a selfish reason. I wanted his "line" to look good, but the more I thought about it and what Lovullo has been doing....it made sense. Lovullo has a better chance for the Sox to win if he stays away from that lousy pen......and he is "stretching" the starters out which I like. Farrell, at times, was too quick in pulling guys. It is nice to see a manager push his starters into becoming more of a 7+ inning pitcher than the normal settling for 6. I'm sorry, but I don't agree. Unless a pitcher is almost unhittable or most of the bullpen is unavailable, they should always come out after the 3rd time through the order. Every time a pitcher falls apart like the last two games, it's always the 4th time through. It's so predictable. There is no point in doing it, except to frustrate the pitcher. I don't care how bad the bullpen is, it's still better than the starter the 4th time through the order Ordinarily I can see your point. But this pen is SO unreliable that it is unclear if going to the pen is better than trying to get the last 5% out of the starter. Last night's game was a case in point. Yes, Porcello allowed a couple of runners in the 8th - but the guy who replaced him gave it up as well. The team was screwed no matter what the manager did. The problem with this philosophy in the longer run is that it is making the pen get extra outs throughout the season. Anything but a really deep pen is going to have the threat of burnout. The Sox didn't have a deep pen and that is precisely what happened to them. Now EVERY game is an adventure because no lead is safe and tight games late are often winnable only if the offense is clicking on all cylinders.
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Post by jmei on Sept 24, 2015 8:31:40 GMT -5
Even when the team is out of contention and the pitcher could use innings/reps? If I thought Porcello was some wilting flower with poise issues then I might be worried. But he's a really confident dude who is working out stuff and the bullpen stinks. I'm not even sure where the stats are, but I bet opposing batters are hitting about .400 off him for the 4th time through if I had to guess. I don't know how that does him any good. I'm not worried about him, but I can't imagine it's good for confidence. They're, uh, actually hitting .450 off him the fourth time through the order this year. It's only 21 PAs, so it's not analytically useful, but it's kind of hilarious nonetheless: www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=porceri01&year=2015&t=p#timesADD: his career times-though-the-order penalty is much less skewed and pretty much in line with most starting pitchers: www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=porceri01&year=Career&t=p#times
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 8:32:52 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but I don't agree. Unless a pitcher is almost unhittable or most of the bullpen is unavailable, they should always come out after the 3rd time through the order. Every time a pitcher falls apart like the last two games, it's always the 4th time through. It's so predictable. There is no point in doing it, except to frustrate the pitcher. I don't care how bad the bullpen is, it's still better than the starter the 4th time through the order Ordinarily I can see your point. But this pen is SO unreliable that it is unclear if going to the pen is better than trying to get the last 5% out of the starter. Last night's game was a case in point. Yes, Porcello allowed a couple of runners in the 8th - but the guy who replaced him gave it up as well. The team was screwed no matter what the manager did. The problem with this philosophy in the longer run is that it is making the pen get extra outs throughout the season. Anything but a really deep pen is going to have the threat of burnout. The Sox didn't have a deep pen and that is precisely what happened to them. Now EVERY game is an adventure because no lead is safe and tight games late are often winnable only if the offense is clicking on all cylinders. See stats in the above post.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 8:37:29 GMT -5
Even an .833 OPS has to be worse than our terrible bullpen. Regardless, I'm all for putting players in a position to succeed, not ask them to do something that is going to make his stats worse in the meaningless part of the season. He's coming back next year, unlike a lot of the BP.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 24, 2015 9:41:25 GMT -5
Even an .833 OPS has to be worse than our terrible bullpen. Regardless, I'm all for putting players in a position to succeed, not ask them to do something that is going to make his stats worse in the meaningless part of the season. He's coming back next year, unlike a lot of the BP. You don't want to do something that makes his stats look worse in a meaningless season. I'm trying to wrap my head around that logic but cannot. Unless he's on your fantasy team and I can't imagine that to be the case then your rational does not make sense, to me anyway. The bullpen is very bad so there is no guarantee for anything right now. Porcello is at 157 IP this year and I'm sure they have him penciled in at 200+ for next season. It's never good to have someone exceed what they did the year before by a large amount (I'm not sure what % I read but it may have been 20%). Getting his innings in is not a bad idea. Since he came back from "injury" his ERA has been 2.98. Typical fans of the Sox, I doubt anyone here is typical, likely have no idea he's likely to bounce back and be a #2/#3 pitcher next year.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 10:11:25 GMT -5
Even an .833 OPS has to be worse than our terrible bullpen. Regardless, I'm all for putting players in a position to succeed, not ask them to do something that is going to make his stats worse in the meaningless part of the season. He's coming back next year, unlike a lot of the BP. You don't want to do something that makes his stats look worse in a meaningless season. I'm trying to wrap my head around that logic but cannot. Unless he's on your fantasy team and I can't imagine that to be the case then your rational does not make sense, to me anyway. The bullpen is very bad so there is no guarantee for anything right now. Porcello is at 157 IP this year and I'm sure they have him penciled in at 200+ for next season. It's never good to have someone exceed what they did the year before by a large amount (I'm not sure what % I read but it may have been 20%). Getting his innings in is not a bad idea. Since he came back from "injury" his ERA has been 2.98. Typical fans of the Sox, I doubt anyone here is typical, likely have no idea he's likely to bounce back and be a #2/#3 pitcher next year. Regardless of how meaningless the games are, baseball players are results oriented. They want to win first and they want their pitching line to look good second. It's not a huge deal so there isn't much of a point in arguing over it, but I'd rather Porcello be put in a position to succeed rather than leaving him out there until he throws 115 pitches every game, no matter how many 3-4 run 7th or 8th innings he gives up. I don't care about the bullpen pitchers who aren't coming back next year. They can give up 10 runs to get 3 outs for all I care. There is no reason for pitchers to attempt a 4th time through the order. They aren't going to learn much except that they are way worse than they were the first 3 times.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 24, 2015 10:18:11 GMT -5
Why do they go by innings pitched and not individual pitches anyways?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 10:32:53 GMT -5
Why do they go by innings pitched and not individual pitches anyways? That's a good point, but I'd take it even further than that. I've come to a pretty strong conclusion that stressful innings are worth a whole lot more than even the # of pitches. If a pitcher has 2 30 pitch innings in a row, he should probably be taken out right then instead of continuing to throw until he hits 100+ pitches. Might be purely anecdotal. I wish I had access to that kind of data without going through pitch charts in individual games.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 24, 2015 10:43:12 GMT -5
I'm assuming they keep track of that also.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 24, 2015 10:47:32 GMT -5
I'm sure the club tracks it more closely than just using innings, or that if they don't, they've researched whether it was worth doing so. In the minors, they have at times, at least, had a strict policy that pitchers are to be removed from a game if they throw 30 pitches in an inning. I remember a couple occasions, one involving Matt Barnes, I think, in which a pitcher left a game very early leading to injury speculation, only for us to find later that they had a hard-and-fast rule that you come out if that happens. That said, they don't appear to have that policy in place anymore, so again, I wonder if they did further research into that and found it wasn't useful.
I also recall reading that when it came to pitches thrown, they had a policy relating to how many pitches a pitcher threw over a span of three starts, and this was in the majors. Some starter went over 120 for a couple starts in a row and they explained that they weren't worried about it, but would handle him with kid gloves in the third start for that reason.
So maybe it comes down to them looking at pitches over a smaller sample size, dealing more with recovery and that sort of thing, but find that innings are a good enough benchmark if you're talking over the course of a season, so long as you are managing the pitch counts and stress at the micro level?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 24, 2015 10:52:16 GMT -5
Ordinarily I can see your point. But this pen is SO unreliable that it is unclear if going to the pen is better than trying to get the last 5% out of the starter. Last night's game was a case in point. Yes, Porcello allowed a couple of runners in the 8th - but the guy who replaced him gave it up as well. The team was screwed no matter what the manager did. The problem with this philosophy in the longer run is that it is making the pen get extra outs throughout the season. Anything but a really deep pen is going to have the threat of burnout. The Sox didn't have a deep pen and that is precisely what happened to them. Now EVERY game is an adventure because no lead is safe and tight games late are often winnable only if the offense is clicking on all cylinders. See stats in the above post. And what was the slash line of the pitchers who finished the game after Porcello left last night? I understand exactly what is going on here. The manager is terrified of bringing in bullpen guys because there are so many bad ones out there that if he has to use a few, chances are one of them will cough it up. What he was doing by bringing Porcello back out was trying to reduce his number of bullpen uses by at least one. Now you may be able to make a case that overall Porcello after 3 times through the lineup is bad, though the sample size is too small to make any reliable judgments. But you go down on the field, sit on the bench, watch a guy pitch a fine game that is still tight into the 8th, and then look out at that bullpen where you have absolutely no options that you have any confidence at all won't implode, know that you are going to have to probably use a few of them to get 6 outs in a game that is winnable but which you don't figure to get much offense, and try to figure out what to do. After what Lovullo has seen, especially the past few weeks, I don't fault him one bit for bringing Porcello back out.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 24, 2015 11:15:28 GMT -5
I'm sure the club tracks it more closely than just using innings, or that if they don't, they've researched whether it was worth doing so. In the minors, they have at times, at least, had a strict policy that pitchers are to be removed from a game if they throw 30 pitches in an inning. I remember a couple occasions, one involving Matt Barnes, I think, in which a pitcher left a game very early leading to injury speculation, only for us to find later that they had a hard-and-fast rule that you come out if that happens. That said, they don't appear to have that policy in place anymore, so again, I wonder if they did further research into that and found it wasn't useful. I also recall reading that when it came to pitches thrown, they had a policy relating to how many pitches a pitcher threw over a span of three starts, and this was in the majors. Some starter went over 120 for a couple starts in a row and they explained that they weren't worried about it, but would handle him with kid gloves in the third start for that reason. So maybe it comes down to them looking at pitches over a smaller sample size, dealing more with recovery and that sort of thing, but find that innings are a good enough benchmark if you're talking over the course of a season, so long as you are managing the pitch counts and stress at the micro level? There was another stat in a recent 108 Stiches which I deleted about how Joe Kelly was on the leader board for most 30 pitch innings this season and now coincidentally he's out with shoulder pain. I'd like to see all of this data.
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