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9/28-10/1 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Sept 30, 2015 8:55:44 GMT -5
YOU GUYS! Our run differential is 4......as in +4! Imagine if Hanley/Panda didn't cost them 30 runs... Seriously. Imagine if those two had been merely bad, rather than catastrophic - if they'd combined for, say, +2.5 fWAR rather than the -3.6 they've actually put up. That's a 6-win swing right there. It probably would've been enough to keep the team in the race at the trade deadline so they could've gone out and improved the bullpen, which might have been worth another couple of wins. Plus Allen Craig wouldn't be getting these September at-bats, etc... They would probably be neck-and-neck with the Yankees for the first wild card slot.
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Post by bball798 on Sept 30, 2015 8:55:21 GMT -5
Given that it takes a fastball approximately 0.4 seconds to reach home plate, that means JBJ was already running to the ball before it was even halfway home. That's incredible.
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Post by awall on Sept 30, 2015 9:01:59 GMT -5
So why did the observed wOBA go from .362 to .354 between the 3rd and 4th TTO?
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Post by p23w on Sept 30, 2015 9:02:18 GMT -5
Not taking anything away from JBJ but this is not an uncommon phenomena. Stephen Drew used to "lean" a lot which accounted for his range factors. Pedey does this too. Anticipation is part and parcel for infielders, less common but still prevalent among top shelf outfield defenders. One reason I can't stand TV broadcasts is that they never focus on defenders who anticipate the ball coming their way and rarely have the footage to capture a defender who anticipates correctly and makes a seemingly phenomenal play. Best to enter the fan frozen zone and anticipate this in person at the game. This is what makes the game so very much enjoyable to observe in person than on some broadcast. I am really looking forward to having this experience at a game with JBJ patrolling the outfield.
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Post by semsox on Sept 30, 2015 9:13:28 GMT -5
I can't fathom why people think a fourth time seeing a pitcher makes a big difference. Fatigue is the only thing that matters in terms of pulling a pitcher who has been effective, IMO. He got lit up the first time through the order, then dominated. How does seeing him again a fourth time matter? Because there is a lot of evidence that pitchers do worse each TTO, regardless of pitch count. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22156Actually this article shows that the associated wOBA for the third and fourth times through the order are both very similar. In fact, at the very end, there is a comparison of the difference in wOBA for batters who saw a lot of pitches in their first AB, and found a huge jump in wOBA to their second AB. This makes sense intuitively if we associate a TTOP with a batters recognition of a given pitcher's arsenal. This would also explain why there is really no change in the penalty between the third and fourth time through the order, as a batter is likely to have seen an entire repertoire of pitches before both the third and fourth. I don't think awall and nomar are very off base when they say that the biggest issue with a fourth time through the order is fatigue.
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Post by p23w on Sept 30, 2015 9:22:12 GMT -5
I really liked the match ups originally projected for this series.... even with the NYY's not listing a game 4 starter. Now we have the bait and switch in game 3, Tannaka replaces Sabbathia. Lord please let Miley throw a gem. I really would like to see the Yanks go into the playoffs getting swept at home by the Sox.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 30, 2015 10:03:00 GMT -5
While so many so called Sox fans have just tuned out on this team and feel they are a long way away from contending, I am just plain freaking giddy about the future!!! Yes I know the Sox have needs to fill and problems, Sandoval, Hanley, to solve but how can you not be excited about the future? IMO it is a very fun time to be a Sox fan. Optimism is very high for a team that could be very good for a long time. DD is a very lucky man. Please make a few good moves and don't screw up what you have inherited.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2015 10:56:22 GMT -5
Not taking anything away from JBJ but this is not an uncommon phenomena. Stephen Drew used to "lean" a lot which accounted for his range factors. Pedey does this too. Anticipation is part and parcel for infielders, less common but still prevalent among top shelf outfield defenders. One reason I can't stand TV broadcasts is that they never focus on defenders who anticipate the ball coming their way and rarely have the footage to capture a defender who anticipates correctly and makes a seemingly phenomenal play. Best to enter the fan frozen zone and anticipate this in person at the game. This is what makes the game so very much enjoyable to observe in person than on some broadcast. I am really looking forward to having this experience at a game with JBJ patrolling the outfield. Yeah, but I'd bet that making your first observable step a full 1/4 second before the bat hits the ball is out of the usual range. Leaning for an infielder (or outfielder) is one thing, taking a full step into a 97% efficient route to the ball is another entirely. I think. I'd actually love to see Statcast data turned into some comparative studies like that ... would be really fun to see. Because your general point is definitely true. I think that anticipation is a big thing that separates outfield defenders. Victorino was really, really good at it. The ball would be hit to RF and by the time I looked over there, he'd be in full stride already.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 30, 2015 11:24:11 GMT -5
While so many so called Sox fans have just tuned out on this team and feel they are a long way away from contending, I am just plain freaking giddy about the future!!! Yes I know the Sox have needs to fill and problems, Sandoval, Hanley, to solve but how can you not be excited about the future? IMO it is a very fun time to be a Sox fan. Optimism is very high for a team that could be very good for a long time. DD is a very lucky man. Please make a few good moves and don't screw up what you have inherited. I remember feeling the same way about the 1966 Sox. Though they had a bad record that year, they came on and looked a LOT better at the end of the year, so that I figured that they could contend in 1967. I also remember seeing the early Las Vegas odds for the various MLB teams to win the pennant and WS, the Sox of course were a real longshot (don't remember what the quoted odds were), but I remember thinking to myself, if I had any money (which I didn't at the time), that is the kind of bet that would be worthwhile to take. Not because I was sure that the Sox would do well that year, but because they were better than the oddsmakers were giving them credit for, so over the long haul bets of this ilk would pay off more than the odds would have you risk, and would thus be a moneymaker (even though I hadn't had a formal statistics course yet, I still sort of sensed the Law of Large Numbers.)
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 30, 2015 11:41:26 GMT -5
Ortiz has managed to do what pretty much everyone agreed wasn't going to happen, bridge the gap to the next generation of young Sox stars. If he can be anything like he's been 2010-2015 (avg bWAR 3.33, fWAR 2.9), that should be plenty. Unless he totally loses it, he'll still be a very valuable asset A lot of people on this site figured the talent was there, and that Ortiz would benefit from it. That's not the problem. Getting playing time for those guys has been the issue, for me and I'm sure for others. The simple act of letting Bogaerts figure it out with the help of the staff these MLB teams carry, of giving him the leeway to do that, resulted in a very good year. That's probably a foreshadowing of great ones down the road. Once Victorino was jettisoned and Hanley brought in from out of that cold, cold, left field, they could rework the outfield. That is to say they could just put Bradley out there and let him be, let him play. Same with Castillo. Same with Swihart once Vazquez and Hanigan were both out of commission. The decision to trade Napoli finally opened the door to Shaw, one that looked absolutely closed to him. Rodriguez was given a shot and Owens as well after guys went on the DL. The team literally had to let out a death rattle before they made the call for these guys, did the housecleaning, and proceeded to reap the rewards. The talent was there all along, but the absurd nature of "big media" in a city like Boston makes it damn near impossible for the team to adopt that scenario, the one where you populate the diamond with fresh talent and let them work it out. One example: you had people insisting Bradley be brought up, when he had no AAA experience, then trashing the team for having done that - the very same talking head took those two positions! All of it was just pure noise, static from people who claim to know baseball but who appear to be in it only to stoke the embers of any controversy they can generate. I didn't think it would be that big a deal, that they could just send him back for more seasoning if he couldn't deliver. I was dead wrong, and it probably set him back months maybe more. JBJ got bounced like a yo-yo back and forth, hammered in the media, and he was the target of trade rumors. People on this board which I consider well-informed, were ready to trade him for a bag of balls. Every once in a great while you get a gem like Betts, a player so good you'd have to be blind not to stick him somewhere, anywhere. Even he was ghost-traded over and over again, a guy who's going to push 6+ bWAR this year! You can count those guys on one hand, and you just need a few fingers once you throw in the age factor. But most players need time, Give them enough and this is what you get, an offense that can be relentless 1 through 9. Dombrowski has to be working hard not to keep smiling his ass off when they flash to him in the booth. He's no fool and he can see the cards he's holding. And yet Norm, it isn't clear that any of the players you mentioned were kept in the minors much if any longer than they should have been, plus I think the predominant opinion on Swihart is that he was rushed and there wasn't a huge hue and cry to bring Shaw up given his mediocre results at AAA. So it wasn't a matter of guys languishing as much as things falling apart on the major league squad at what happened to be precisely the right time. Yes, the visible talent was there, but fruition takes talent plus the right amount and type of development. To me the enjoyable part of watching all these youngsters isn't so much the days they do it all by themselves as a group (and we've seen a few of those), but rather, the majority of days when offense isn't easy to come by and so maybe only one of them has a really good day -- but it's a different guy every day. One day Betts, the next day Bradley, the next day Bogaerts, the next day Swihart (last night, anyone?), the next day Shaw. It's like you can keep some of them down, but not all of them down.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 30, 2015 13:00:26 GMT -5
A lot of people on this site figured the talent was there, and that Ortiz would benefit from it. That's not the problem. Getting playing time for those guys has been the issue, for me and I'm sure for others. The simple act of letting Bogaerts figure it out with the help of the staff these MLB teams carry, of giving him the leeway to do that, resulted in a very good year. That's probably a foreshadowing of great ones down the road. Once Victorino was jettisoned and Hanley brought in from out of that cold, cold, left field, they could rework the outfield. That is to say they could just put Bradley out there and let him be, let him play. Same with Castillo. Same with Swihart once Vazquez and Hanigan were both out of commission. The decision to trade Napoli finally opened the door to Shaw, one that looked absolutely closed to him. Rodriguez was given a shot and Owens as well after guys went on the DL. The team literally had to let out a death rattle before they made the call for these guys, did the housecleaning, and proceeded to reap the rewards. The talent was there all along, but the absurd nature of "big media" in a city like Boston makes it damn near impossible for the team to adopt that scenario, the one where you populate the diamond with fresh talent and let them work it out. One example: you had people insisting Bradley be brought up, when he had no AAA experience, then trashing the team for having done that - the very same talking head took those two positions! All of it was just pure noise, static from people who claim to know baseball but who appear to be in it only to stoke the embers of any controversy they can generate. I didn't think it would be that big a deal, that they could just send him back for more seasoning if he couldn't deliver. I was dead wrong, and it probably set him back months maybe more. JBJ got bounced like a yo-yo back and forth, hammered in the media, and he was the target of trade rumors. People on this board which I consider well-informed, were ready to trade him for a bag of balls. Every once in a great while you get a gem like Betts, a player so good you'd have to be blind not to stick him somewhere, anywhere. Even he was ghost-traded over and over again, a guy who's going to push 6+ bWAR this year! You can count those guys on one hand, and you just need a few fingers once you throw in the age factor. But most players need time, Give them enough and this is what you get, an offense that can be relentless 1 through 9. Dombrowski has to be working hard not to keep smiling his ass off when they flash to him in the booth. He's no fool and he can see the cards he's holding. And yet Norm, it isn't clear that any of the players you mentioned were kept in the minors much if any longer than they should have been, plus I think the predominant opinion on Swihart is that he was rushed and there wasn't a huge hue and cry to bring Shaw up given his mediocre results at AAA. So it wasn't a matter of guys languishing as much as things falling apart on the major league squad at what happened to be precisely the right time. Yes, the visible talent was there, but fruition takes talent plus the right amount and type of development. To me the enjoyable part of watching all these youngsters isn't so much the days they do it all by themselves as a group (and we've seen a few of those), but rather, the majority of days when offense isn't easy to come by and so maybe only one of them has a really good day -- but it's a different guy every day. One day Betts, the next day Bradley, the next day Bogaerts, the next day Swihart (last night, anyone?), the next day Shaw. It's like you can keep some of them down, but not all of them down. Isn't that a key to team success, that they do not have to rely on one or two players night in and night out? That is what I think gives this team such huge potential, anybody can have a great game on any given night. I think the pitching staff loves the improved defense without rameriez and sandavol on the field and now they know that if they keep it close any guy in our lineup could come through in the clutch.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,322
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Post by radiohix on Sept 30, 2015 13:14:11 GMT -5
A well written piece by Alex Speier...The part about Hanley work ethic confirm what a lot of the posters here were thinking. I hope DD works some magic and get ride of this toxic asset...You don't want him next to Moncada or Xander or anyone of our young players.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Sept 30, 2015 13:24:12 GMT -5
Not taking anything away from JBJ but this is not an uncommon phenomena. Stephen Drew used to "lean" a lot which accounted for his range factors. Pedey does this too. Anticipation is part and parcel for infielders, less common but still prevalent among top shelf outfield defenders. One reason I can't stand TV broadcasts is that they never focus on defenders who anticipate the ball coming their way and rarely have the footage to capture a defender who anticipates correctly and makes a seemingly phenomenal play. Best to enter the fan frozen zone and anticipate this in person at the game. This is what makes the game so very much enjoyable to observe in person than on some broadcast. I am really looking forward to having this experience at a game with JBJ patrolling the outfield. Yeah, but I'd bet that making your first observable step a full 1/4 second before the bat hits the ball is out of the usual range. Leaning for an infielder (or outfielder) is one thing, taking a full step into a 97% efficient route to the ball is another entirely. I think. I'd actually love to see Statcast data turned into some comparative studies like that ... would be really fun to see. Because your general point is definitely true. I think that anticipation is a big thing that separates outfield defenders. Victorino was really, really good at it. The ball would be hit to RF and by the time I looked over there, he'd be in full stride already. Sure, you can start moving left or right as the pitch is being thrown; this was one reason I found playing cf to be the easiest and most fun, because you can see the pitch so well. But how the heck do you anticipate that you will have to sprint back towards the LF foul pole?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2015 14:05:28 GMT -5
A well written piece by Alex Speier...The part about Hanley work ethic confirm what a lot of the posters here were thinking. I hope DD works some magic and get ride of this toxic asset...You don't want him next to Moncada or Xander or anyone of our young players. I pulled the relevant quotes. Yikes. That confirms my suspicion. I think they get rid of him at any cost this winter. Addition by subtraction. That he was excused from the team could be interpreted as evidence of that. Also, I've made up my mind that I'd like Lovullo back managing them next year if they can navigate around the Farrell situation.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 335
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Post by art on Sept 30, 2015 14:23:16 GMT -5
At least we got to eliminate the MFY's from the division race. They can tie, but lose tie-breaker. Forced to suffer thru Michael Kay the last couple of nights. Even he could do nothing but rave about JBJ's defense. I'm thinking RF at Fenway for JBJ, LF in Yankee Dog Stadium and CF everywhere else. I know. It will never happen. I was uncertain whether this was correct when I first read it, and it isn't. If the Yankees and Jays finish with identical records they would play a game on Monday to determine the division winner. I just ran across this: m.mlb.com/news/article/147856758/breaking-down-possible-postseason-tiebreakersIf tomorrow night's game with the Yankees is rained out and the Yankees finish Sunday 1/2 game behind Toronto, I believe the Sox would play the Yankees on Monday and the game to determine the division winner would be pushed back if the Yankees won. Of course the chances of all this happening are very remote. The Yankees would have to win all of their remaining games and the Jays lose all of theirs.
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Post by jchang on Sept 30, 2015 14:23:40 GMT -5
Assuming that JBJ does not actually gave precog capability I will assume that negative .24 sec means JBJ is moving before statcast figures out where a hit ball is going.100mph is 16 ft per sec so perhaps JBJ figures it out 36 ft sooner than statcast. Or he has precog.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2015 14:31:32 GMT -5
Assuming that JBJ does not actually gave precog capability I will assume that negative .24 sec means JBJ is moving before statcast figures out where a hit ball is going.100mph is 16 ft per sec so perhaps JBJ figures it out 36 ft sooner than statcast. Or he has precog. He could also be moving after the batter has begun to swing but before the batter has made contact. But yeah, the most likely answer is Statcast measurement error.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 30, 2015 15:18:32 GMT -5
BETTS PEDROIA XANDER ORTIZ SHAW HOLT RF SWIHART MARRERO BRADLEY LF
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Post by kman22 on Sept 30, 2015 15:36:10 GMT -5
Assuming that JBJ does not actually gave precog capability I will assume that negative .24 sec means JBJ is moving before statcast figures out where a hit ball is going.100mph is 16 ft per sec so perhaps JBJ figures it out 36 ft sooner than statcast. Or he has precog. (5280x100)/(60*60)=146.67 feet per second? Help me out.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2015 15:39:10 GMT -5
A well written piece by Alex Speier...The part about Hanley work ethic confirm what a lot of the posters here were thinking. I hope DD works some magic and get ride of this toxic asset...You don't want him next to Moncada or Xander or anyone of our young players. That's a really good piece, the product of a lot of reporting and trust-building from a good reporter. It's got cherry-picked dates galore to show improvement, but whatever, that's not the point. I have to say, besides the overtly negative stuff about Ramirez, there's less explicit theme that Lovullo's just done better than Farrell. LIke this line: "With improved defense came an environment where members of the pitching staff who struggled or were transitioning – Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Owens – could all take leaps forward, aided by game plans that emphasized their strengths rather than becoming distracted by efforts to exploit opposing hitters’ weaknesses." Plus the credit to Lovullo for setting expectations, etc.
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Post by p23w on Sept 30, 2015 15:53:22 GMT -5
Assuming that JBJ does not actually gave precog capability I will assume that negative .24 sec means JBJ is moving before statcast figures out where a hit ball is going.100mph is 16 ft per sec so perhaps JBJ figures it out 36 ft sooner than statcast. Or he has precog. He could also be moving after the batter has begun to swing but before the batter has made contact. But yeah, the most likely answer is Statcast measurement error. Before you get caught up in the precog mythology know that a top flight defender knows his pitcher, knows the batter and knows that in YS a RHP is going to go away to a LHB. The batter knows this as well. In the cat and mouse game the defender enters and plays a step or two toward CF, with the expectation that the batter sees this and commits his swing to LF. Likewise the defender commits his first step toward the LF line. It's not saber masturbation it's the game within the game. Quantify this if you must, but you wouldn't see this behavior in LF from our former LF novice, Hanley Rameirez. You are far more likely to see this behavior from a career OFer, particularly a CFer who is familiar with getting good reads (not that he can see the pitch call) but who can read a catchers frame. We used to call this this the frozen zone. When you're in it you know it. When you're not in it.... you wish you were. JBJ seems to have the ability to enter the FZ from each OF position. Remarkable in itself.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 30, 2015 16:23:52 GMT -5
The Red Sox are 33 up and 22 down since July 30, the day they beat the White Sox, 8-2. That's a winning percentage of .600, which is a 97-win pace, with guys like Jean Machi and Robby Ross Jr. closing games.
Trade some of the prospect redundancy for a frontline SP and hit on a couple of BP acquisitions and this team can be a force next year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2015 17:21:48 GMT -5
...And yet Norm, it isn't clear that any of the players you mentioned were kept in the minors much if any longer than they should have been, plus I think the predominant opinion on Swihart is that he was rushed and there wasn't a huge hue and cry to bring Shaw up given his mediocre results at AAA. So it wasn't a matter of guys languishing as much as things falling apart on the major league squad at what happened to be precisely the right time. Yes, the visible talent was there, but fruition takes talent plus the right amount and type of development. To me the enjoyable part of watching all these youngsters isn't so much the days they do it all by themselves as a group (and we've seen a few of those), but rather, the majority of days when offense isn't easy to come by and so maybe only one of them has a really good day -- but it's a different guy every day. One day Betts, the next day Bradley, the next day Bogaerts, the next day Swihart (last night, anyone?), the next day Shaw. It's like you can keep some of them down, but not all of them down. Given the situation in the outfield, where they were consistently giving up runs and losing games, they could have and should have pulled the trigger sooner, I think. Bradley and Castillo were obvious upgrades and there were posters asking over and over again, where are they? After Ramirez hurt his shoulder he was a different hitter as well. Same with Napoli. He was just a different player after last year's post-season surgery, for whatever reason. Shaw wasn't burning up AAA, it's true, but the middle of the order was drawing blanks after the shoulder injury to Ramirez. It really was time to try something different. The team burned through three months before they made that decision. I can understand not wanting to deal with the turmoil that might follow, but it shouldn't have taken three lost months to get to something different. I guess there were still a lot of expectations, but it was painful watching pitchers have to deal with the pinball machine they were pitching inside of. Hatfield has often made the point that games early in the year are just as important as those later. They went 34-48 May-Jul. That's a 67 win season if you extrapolate from the percentage. That's where the season was lost.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2015 18:25:02 GMT -5
I'm really trying not to be deceived into thinking that Shaw could be our starting 1B next year....but geez.
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Post by p23w on Sept 30, 2015 18:25:29 GMT -5
Sayonara!
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