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9/28-10/1 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2015 20:51:11 GMT -5
The good thing is that it's not like the team is scouring for offense. It's obviously not good if Ortiz is "only" a 1-5-2 fWAR, or even lower. If he needs time off or gets hurt, etc., the club already has Hanley/Panda who many would prefer in a DH role anyways, and the potential emergence of Shaw. I'm not a big "team chemistry" guy, but if the team is winning, I'd rather have him on the club even if he's not an elite talent anymore
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2015 20:53:29 GMT -5
To me, 89, the biggest threat to next season's offense is that David Ortiz finally hits the wall of Father Time. It's going to happen sometime soon. Because of his history, they will keep him in there and keep him in there, probably for most of the season, no matter what he does, because of who he is and to give him every chance to regress to the mean. But to every player comes a time when they don't regress. Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2015 20:54:03 GMT -5
Nice outing by Porcello. He even brought his ERA down after a rough first.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2015 20:59:43 GMT -5
Ortiz has managed to do what pretty much everyone agreed wasn't going to happen, bridge the gap to the next generation of young Sox stars. If he can be anything like he's been 2010-2015 (avg bWAR 3.33, fWAR 2.9), that should be plenty. Unless he totally loses it, he'll still be a very valuable asset
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 29, 2015 21:02:18 GMT -5
To me, 89, the biggest threat to next season's offense is that David Ortiz finally hits the wall of Father Time. It's going to happen sometime soon. Because of his history, they will keep him in there and keep him in there, probably for most of the season, no matter what he does, because of who he is and to give him every chance to regress to the mean. But to every player comes a time when they don't regress. Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute. I'd be OK with that assessment, except that I look at Ortiz' body type, and I look at Yaz's body type. Who would I bet to be more likely to suddenly lose it? And I say that as someone who is amazed by the way Papi has maintained himself through the latter stages of his career and gives him all the credit for the diligence with which he has kept his attitude and his performance. It would be so easy to say "I've had a great career, I've got 3 rings, time to chill out." Something drives The Man.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2015 21:10:51 GMT -5
Great win. Go Houston, go L.A. Knock these MFYs right out of the playoffs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2015 21:11:08 GMT -5
Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute. I'd be OK with that assessment, except that I look at Ortiz' body type, and I look at Yaz's body type. Who would I bet to be more likely to suddenly lose it? And I say that as someone who is amazed by the way Papi has maintained himself through the latter stages of his career and gives him all the credit for the diligence with which he has kept his attitude and his performance. It would be so easy to say "I've had a great career, I've got 3 rings, time to chill out." Something drives The Man. I get the body type line of thought, but I think with all the DHing Ortiz has done, it has helped age his body slower than other players who had to play the field. Yaz was still playing LF at age 39. And he crashed into the wall at age 41. I think his body got beat up more than Ortiz's has. And keep in mind Yaz also got hurt playing 1b in 1975 as I think a throw took his shoulder into the batter/runner and resulted in a shoulder injury. Ortiz has been able to avoid that. His injuries are more from running the bases type of thing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2015 21:13:42 GMT -5
Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute. I'd be OK with that assessment, except that I look at Ortiz' body type, and I look at Yaz's body type. Who would I bet to be more likely to suddenly lose it? And I say that as someone who is amazed by the way Papi has maintained himself through the latter stages of his career and gives him all the credit for the diligence with which he has kept his attitude and his performance. It would be so easy to say "I've had a great career, I've got 3 rings, time to chill out." Something drives The Man. Papi is amazing. I hope he gets another ring. I know he's been hoping that he doesn't have to be THE MAN for a long time now. I think help is on the way. The cavalry is coming. He might actually be there when Moncada and Benintendi (and even Margot) are ready to debut. By then I expect Bogaerts will be hitting home runs and Papi will wind up a complimentary piece.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 29, 2015 21:32:05 GMT -5
So: circa 93/94 yanks Betts=B.Williams Xander=Jeter Swihart=Posada Erod=Pettitte Of course Hanley=Tartabull Stop crapping on Xander like that. I won't stand for it. But seriously, the question now is will DD be able to get the Tino Martinez, David Cone, Scott Brosius types. In other words, will he be able to make sage trades for veteran-type guys who fit in perfectly and fill the needs the kiddie corps isn't able to fill? We need him to acquire a frontline SP and at least two solid BP guys.
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Post by huskies15 on Sept 29, 2015 21:33:01 GMT -5
Mookie has had a GREAT year. He and Xander have made every game this season watchable for me. Played Mookie in an AAU tournament when we were both 16, never thought that the leadoff hitter named Mookie from Nashville would become one of my favorite players. how good was he then? Sorry for the delayed response, but he was pretty good. More athlete than baseball player at the time. Still he smacked a triple against us and showed his athleticism at shortstop.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 29, 2015 21:41:35 GMT -5
Well you've ruined Luvollo for me now. Thanks. This is beyond cool. Kay mentioned it on the MFY broadcast tonight and my first thought was whether they actually let someone get that close to POTUS. Barack looks pretty fit, too.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2015 22:22:58 GMT -5
Ortiz has managed to do what pretty much everyone agreed wasn't going to happen, bridge the gap to the next generation of young Sox stars. If he can be anything like he's been 2010-2015 (avg bWAR 3.33, fWAR 2.9), that should be plenty. Unless he totally loses it, he'll still be a very valuable asset A lot of people on this site figured the talent was there, and that Ortiz would benefit from it. That's not the problem. Getting playing time for those guys has been the issue, for me and I'm sure for others. The simple act of letting Bogaerts figure it out with the help of the staff these MLB teams carry, of giving him the leeway to do that, resulted in a very good year. That's probably a foreshadowing of great ones down the road. Once Victorino was jettisoned and Hanley brought in from out of that cold, cold, left field, they could rework the outfield. That is to say they could just put Bradley out there and let him be, let him play. Same with Castillo. Same with Swihart once Vazquez and Hanigan were both out of commission. The decision to trade Napoli finally opened the door to Shaw, one that looked absolutely closed to him. Rodriguez was given a shot and Owens as well after guys went on the DL. The team literally had to let out a death rattle before they made the call for these guys, did the housecleaning, and proceeded to reap the rewards. The talent was there all along, but the absurd nature of "big media" in a city like Boston makes it damn near impossible for the team to adopt that scenario, the one where you populate the diamond with fresh talent and let them work it out. One example: you had people insisting Bradley be brought up, when he had no AAA experience, then trashing the team for having done that - the very same talking head took those two positions! All of it was just pure noise, static from people who claim to know baseball but who appear to be in it only to stoke the embers of any controversy they can generate. I didn't think it would be that big a deal, that they could just send him back for more seasoning if he couldn't deliver. I was dead wrong, and it probably set him back months maybe more. JBJ got bounced like a yo-yo back and forth, hammered in the media, and he was the target of trade rumors. People on this board which I consider well-informed, were ready to trade him for a bag of balls. Every once in a great while you get a gem like Betts, a player so good you'd have to be blind not to stick him somewhere, anywhere. Even he was ghost-traded over and over again, a guy who's going to push 6+ bWAR this year! You can count those guys on one hand, and you just need a few fingers once you throw in the age factor. But most players need time, Give them enough and this is what you get, an offense that can be relentless 1 through 9. Dombrowski has to be working hard not to keep smiling his ass off when they flash to him in the booth. He's no fool and he can see the cards he's holding.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 29, 2015 22:34:38 GMT -5
To me, 89, the biggest threat to next season's offense is that David Ortiz finally hits the wall of Father Time. It's going to happen sometime soon. Because of his history, they will keep him in there and keep him in there, probably for most of the season, no matter what he does, because of who he is and to give him every chance to regress to the mean. But to every player comes a time when they don't regress. Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute. Point well taken, considering in all of MLB history, only Barry Bonds has put up 30+HR/100+RBI at Ortiz' current age or older. His 2014 numbers are "ridiculous" because they are that historic. To bank on him making history twice...can't expect it, but would of course love it, if he goes B2B on that historic achievement.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 29, 2015 22:37:23 GMT -5
YOU GUYS! Our run differential is 4......as in +4!
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Post by station13 on Sept 29, 2015 22:51:48 GMT -5
YOU GUYS! Our run differential is 4......as in +4! Imagine if Hanley/Panda didn't cost them 30 runs...
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 29, 2015 23:13:37 GMT -5
Pythag since August 1: 100-win pace.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 29, 2015 23:35:38 GMT -5
So: circa 93/94 yanks Betts=B.Williams Xander=Jeter Swihart=Posada Erod=Pettitte Of course Hanley=Tartabull Stop crapping on Xander like that. I won't stand for it. But seriously, the question now is will DD be able to get the Tino Martinez, David Cone, Scott Brosius types. In other words, will he be able to make sage trades for veteran-type guys who fit in perfectly and fill the needs the kiddie corps isn't able to fill? We need him to acquire a frontline SP and at least two solid BP guys. Yeah, while the Sox do have Owens maybe ready to step in, the Yanks traded for Jimmy Key (who was excellent), Cone, Wetteland, and signed Wells, Mussina, and Clemens. And they developed Mo Rivera. FWIW, Bogaerts is probably better all-around at the same age as Jeter (especially defensively), and Bradley Jr. really has no comp on those Yankee teams. Here's hoping Castillo can channel O'Neill, and Shaw can channel Tino. The Sox also have a tremendously talented second wave coming in probably starting with Benintendi or Margot, maybe Travis in late 2016 and probably Moncada, Espinoza, possibly Devers by late 2017, then Kopech, Guerra, maybe Chavis, Basabe, Logan Allen, or Raudes in 2018. Plus, their likely top-15 first-rounder from 2016. They've got the cash and chips to do it, for sure. Those NYY teams had a strong farm system that allowed them to get all of those complementary players. I'd rather see the Sox build more from within, but trading away the right players at the right time, dealing from redundancy, could be huge for DD in filling those big holes in the rotation and bullpen.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2015 6:40:12 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2015 6:41:50 GMT -5
Man Lovullo is such a fool leaving Pircello in for that fourth time through the order penalty, doesn't he know ab... Oh, we only mention that when it goes poorly, sorry about that, carry on.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2015 7:16:22 GMT -5
Man Lovullo is such a fool leaving Pircello in for that fourth time through the order penalty, doesn't he know ab... Oh, we only mention that when it goes poorly, sorry about that, carry on. I played russian roulette and didn't die so it's a safe game.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
Member is Online
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Post by nomar on Sept 30, 2015 7:48:11 GMT -5
Another factor when going through the order a third and fourth time is pitch count/fatigue. I think that's beginning to get lost in the discussion a bit. We have nothing to lose anyway though.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2015 8:09:00 GMT -5
Man Lovullo is such a fool leaving Pircello in for that fourth time through the order penalty, doesn't he know ab... Oh, we only mention that when it goes poorly, sorry about that, carry on. I played russian roulette and didn't die so it's a safe game. That isn't my point. Any time a pitcher gets lit up late, people bring up the times-through-the-order penalty. But when a pitcher goes deep effectively, the conversation is about how great he pitched. People love to see pitchers go deep into games, and it immensely valuable when they can. It is a risk-reward calculation. It frustrates me the way people frame it as the manager not knowing about it or being incompetent. This isn't using Xander to sacrifice or something that is a clearly measurably bad strategy. In a medium-to-low leverage situation there is a good argument for not using an extra reliever. Leaving Porcello in yesterday to face 32 batters was defensible, just as it was last week when it didn't go well.
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Post by awall on Sept 30, 2015 8:26:18 GMT -5
I can't fathom why people think a fourth time seeing a pitcher makes a big difference. Fatigue is the only thing that matters in terms of pulling a pitcher who has been effective, IMO. He got lit up the first time through the order, then dominated. How does seeing him again a fourth time matter?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 30, 2015 8:32:55 GMT -5
At least we got to eliminate the MFY's from the division race. They can tie, but lose tie-breaker. Forced to suffer thru Michael Kay the last couple of nights. Even he could do nothing but rave about JBJ's defense. I'm thinking RF at Fenway for JBJ, LF in Yankee Dog Stadium and CF everywhere else. I know. It will never happen.
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 30, 2015 8:41:59 GMT -5
I can't fathom why people think a fourth time seeing a pitcher makes a big difference. Fatigue is the only thing that matters in terms of pulling a pitcher who has been effective, IMO. He got lit up the first time through the order, then dominated. How does seeing him again a fourth time matter? Because there is a lot of evidence that pitchers do worse each TTO, regardless of pitch count. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22156
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