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Red Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra +
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Nov 13, 2015 20:45:58 GMT -5
Do brisk is the enemy officially.
Kimbel is behind three pitchers in my mind. I'm ofiacialbky in the " dead zone".
Root for the sox but despise the doo.
Ownership fell for nice hair.
He is a fraud!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 20:46:09 GMT -5
I hope this is not the trade he had almost completed last week and the other team got spooked. Maybe this explain why we got fleeced.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 13, 2015 20:46:57 GMT -5
Ian, chill dude. I have always known that DD would trade young kids in the minors without a thought. He did that in Detroit so it won't be different. But let's look at this like this, over simplified. They just traded a AA outfielder who's a very good but not great prospect, a LOw A short stop who's a B prospect, a Low A starter who's a B-/C prospect and we really aren't worried about Asuaje are we? They got a controllable reliever who's arguably the top closer in the game and has been. Kimbrel may have slipped slightly from his first couple years that were all tile great years but he's still phenomenal. I think this is a fair observation. Margot was expendible in a system with Betts, JBJ, Castillo and Benintendi and he needed to be added to the 40-man this year to start his clock. Guerra and Allen were both sell-high candidates, and Asuaje was a throw-in. The hope would have been to save Margot and Guerra for two separate deals, but such was not to be. Again, this tells me that the SP will come from the FA ranks. I'd also guess that Benintendi will be pushed quickly. Really spot on, here. They gave up a lot, but from position of strength. Getting great player in a trade is generally painful. We didn't even take on any big contracts. Great move. Love it. We now have the top 2-3 closer in the game. Kimbrel, koji, Tazawa, + another addition and the guys they already have - that's a pretty solid BP. These days, you need to have a solid BP.
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Post by jdb on Nov 13, 2015 20:47:29 GMT -5
This stings but DD has a history of winnings trades so we'll see what happens. I thought there was a chance he went overboard with a closer bc his problems in Detroit.
Hopefully we can sign a starter who doesn't cost the 12th pick and sign another setup type and keep the pipeline flowing.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Nov 13, 2015 20:48:20 GMT -5
My god! This is a terrible, terrible deal!
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Post by kingofthetrill on Nov 13, 2015 20:48:44 GMT -5
I think I'm just insulted that Allen had to be included, there was no one coming with Kimbrel, AND that Boston is paying ALL of the money. It just seems that someone had to go out of their way to ask for Allen. If any of Margot/Guerra/Allen were out of the deal, or if Boston got another piece, I think I'd be ok with it.
I am now more curious than ever as to what ridiculous original price that AJ Preller was asking for Kimbrel in order for DD to settle on this overpay. Either that or DD forgot that his job is negotiate DOWN when buying.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 13, 2015 20:48:48 GMT -5
Ian, chill dude. I have always known that DD would trade young kids in the minors without a thought. He did that in Detroit so it won't be different. But let's look at this like this, over simplified. They just traded a AA outfielder who's a very good but not great prospect, a LOw A short stop who's a B prospect, a Low A starter who's a B-/C prospect and we really aren't worried about Asuaje are we? They got a controllable reliever who's arguably the top closer in the game and has been. Kimbrel may have slipped slightly from his first couple years that were all tile great years but he's still phenomenal. I think this is a fair observation. Margot was expendible in a system with Betts, JBJ, Castillo and Benintendi and he needed to be added to the 40-man this year to start his clock. Guerra and Allen were both sell-high candidates, and Asuaje was a throw-in. The hope would have been to save Margot and Guerra for two separate deals, but such was not to be. Again, this tells me that the SP will come from the FA ranks. I'd also guess that Benintendi will be pushed quickly. Yup
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2015 20:50:09 GMT -5
Could somebody explain to me how adding an $11 million reliever makes it more likely that we will now sign a $30 million top of the rotation starter?
And if we take on David Price or Zack Greinke, will there be money to extend Betts? Bogaerts?
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 13, 2015 20:51:47 GMT -5
Could somebody explain to me how adding an $11 million reliever makes it more likely that we will now sign a $30 million top of the rotation starter? And if we take on David Price or Zack Greinke, will there be money to extend Betts? Bogaerts? Yes. Because we are not extending both this offseason.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 13, 2015 20:54:52 GMT -5
Could somebody explain to me how adding an $11 million reliever makes it more likely that we will now sign a $30 million top of the rotation starter? And if we take on David Price or Zack Greinke, will there be money to extend Betts? Bogaerts? I'd suggest looking at the 40-man roster pulldown for the length and amount of contract obligations. Your answer is there, plain as day.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 13, 2015 20:54:55 GMT -5
Could somebody explain to me how adding an $11 million reliever makes it more likely that we will now sign a $30 million top of the rotation starter? And if we take on David Price or Zack Greinke, will there be money to extend Betts? Bogaerts? An extension might have to wait a couple years when they are looking at Hanrams, Panda, and Ortiz's money coming off the books. It will be there, but it will probably take more to extend them at that point too.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:55:52 GMT -5
Seriously, can we please stop with this "We're overrating our own guys!" bullshit. There are literally five million prospect rankers on the internet today and none of them are beholden to Red Sox for any reason. We know how guys are rated by objective sources and what value they have (roughly). Come up with a better argument or leave the thread. What? I'm assuming that's not directed at me. No I was using your (correct) point as a springboard for my point.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 20:58:14 GMT -5
Tough for me to comprehend how they got this nice of a haul from us. Looking at the pieces we gave, and what my thoughts would be on several combos:
Margot/Asuaje: Fair, and pretty pumped to get Craig Kimbrel. Margot/Allen/Asuaje: Ouch. But still, we got Craig Kimbrel, and this isn't crippling to us.* Margot/Guerra/Asuaje: Hosed. Margot/Guerra/Allen/Asuaje: Blasphemy.
*Thing is, the actual trade isn't actually that crippling to us at all. It's just so tough to fathom how Kimbrel cost so much. Now, generally, those of us in the know with the farm are going to have stark differences in opinion from the masses who focus only on the MLB squad -- and it makes sense that DD did this, and that people like Lou Merloni are praising it. But this just goes well beyond what those like us on this board would consider an overpay.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2015 20:58:25 GMT -5
Dave didn't trade Moncada, Espinosa, Devers, AB, or any of our young MLB players. Yet.
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Post by philarhody on Nov 13, 2015 20:58:41 GMT -5
Red Sox baseball sucked to watch this year.
Lets be honest: due to 2015 mediocrity, I think we all became fans of watching an outfielder put up a .750 OPS for the Portland Sea Dogs, and that's why a deal like this REALLY hurts.
Did they overpay for Kimbrel? Probably. Will this move end up being a loss for the RS when weighing the cumulative career war of all players involved? Probably. Would watching Mookie Betts in October of 2016 beat waiting for the emergence of Manuel Margot in 2018? Absolutely.
Who on this roster would Margot represent an improvement over? How about Guerra?
"But it's about the value of the prospect regardless of team need!"
Who's to say that other, well managed teams even valued the prospects given up in this deal?
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Post by pasadenasox on Nov 13, 2015 20:59:02 GMT -5
That's a lot of resource to expend on a closer - probably the most overrated and overpriced role on a pitching staff.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 21:01:14 GMT -5
Corey BrockVerified account @followthepadres Preller and #Padres think so highly of Guerra that AJP said he'll be given a chance to come into ST and win a job. More likely starts in AAA
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 13, 2015 21:01:30 GMT -5
Tough for me to comprehend how they got this nice of a haul from us. Looking at the pieces we gave, and what my thoughts would be on several combos: Margot/Asuaje: Fair, and pretty pumped to get Craig Kimbrel. Margot/Allen/Asuaje: Ouch. But still, we got Craig Kimbrel, and this isn't crippling to us.* Margot/Guerra/Asuaje: Hosed. Margot/Guerra/Allen/Asuaje: Blasphemy. *Thing is, the actual trade isn't actually that crippling to us at all. It's just so tough to fathom how Kimbrel cost so much. Now, generally, those of us in the know with the farm are going to have stark differences in opinion from the masses who focus only on the MLB squad -- and it makes sense that DD did this, and that people like Lou Merloni are praising it. But this just goes well beyond what those like us on this board would consider an overpay. It's maddening trying to explain the downside to this trade to people who have no idea about our prospects. Somebody said they'd rather have Kimbrel over Carrasco to me on Twitter. How can you even argue with them?
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 21:06:17 GMT -5
Corey BrockVerified account @followthepadres Preller and #Padres think so highly of Guerra that AJP said he'll be given a chance to come into ST and win a job. More likely starts in AAA I think we've solved the mystery of which team said they would have started Moncada in the majors.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 21:08:35 GMT -5
Corey BrockVerified account @followthepadres Preller and #Padres think so highly of Guerra that AJP said he'll be given a chance to come into ST and win a job. More likely starts in AAA I think we've solved the mystery of which team said they would have started Moncada in the majors. Hold up: Corey Brock @followthepadres 5s5 seconds ago My bad, misunderstood AJP: He meant Asuaje as having a chance in ST. He's 24, makes more sense. Sorry, balancing #dad duties here.
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Post by philarhody on Nov 13, 2015 21:09:20 GMT -5
Corey BrockVerified account @followthepadres Preller and #Padres think so highly of Guerra that AJP said he'll be given a chance to come into ST and win a job. More likely starts in AAA I think we've solved the mystery of which team said they would have started Moncada in the majors. I think we hired a GM a year too late
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2015 21:12:44 GMT -5
Could somebody explain to me how adding an $11 million reliever makes it more likely that we will now sign a $30 million top of the rotation starter? And if we take on David Price or Zack Greinke, will there be money to extend Betts? Bogaerts? An extension might have to wait a couple years when they are looking at Hanrams, Panda, and Ortiz's money coming off the books. It will be there, but it will probably take more to extend them at that point too. Xander is a Boras client; the window for an extension won't be there in a couple years. Betts should also be extended this off-season. Actually, the more I look at it, this might be a prelude to selling the team. Kimbrell and a couple other less expensive relievers could give this team an elite bullpen which would enable it to contend -- for a wild card, not a division crown -- without taking on the contract associated with a top of the rotation starter or gutting the farm system. It is possible that having figured out that adding a top of the rotation would either gut the farm or bust the budget -- possibly hurting the team's sale value -- the Red Sox opted for the 2014 Orioles and 2014 and 2015 Royals' strategy of winning with defense and bullpen in lieu of starting pitching. This would enable them to (a) play meaningful games in August and September (b) keep the front office in tact (c) have a top ten farm system with some young talent and (d) have a budget which if not immediately manageable, would be very manageable in a couple years. The combination of these four things would probably maximize the sale price. Or it could be that this was just a horrible trade and more are coming.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 21:12:56 GMT -5
Red Sox baseball sucked to watch this year. Lets be honest: due to 2015 mediocrity, I think we all became fans of watching an outfielder put up a .750 OPS for the Portland Sea Dogs, and that's why a deal like this REALLY hurts. Did they overpay for Kimbrel? Probably. Will this move end up being a loss for the RS when weighing the cumulative career war of all players involved? Probably. Would watching Mookie Betts in October of 2016 beat waiting for the emergence of Manuel Margot in 2018? Absolutely. I get that people are just going to keep saying things like this and ignore the point I'm about to make and others have made but: It's not about what they gave up. It's about what they got back. You're admitting as much yourself by saying it's an overpay. That means they could have used the exact same package and gotten something better (a starting pitcher, perhaps). So yes, it IS hurting them in the short term as well as the long term.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 21:14:30 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 17s17 seconds ago DD says that 'most likely, any acquisition we make in starting pitching would first happen in the free agent field.'
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 20s20 seconds ago Dombrowski: "This is probably our major acquisition of this winter as far as the trade market is concerned."
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2015 21:15:32 GMT -5
This is an awful trade value-wise for the Sox. As good as Kimbrel is, he's still just a closer, and he's being paid a top-of-market deal. If they'd signed Miller last year, they'd be in the same position but with three excellent prospects still in their system. Just terrible.
In terms of helping the team short-term, getting Kimbrel is great. But to have given up so much? This is going to be a long, dark winter unless they ink Bogaerts and Betts to extensions and somehow manage to pull off an equivalent fleecing of their own. Now, any deal they make is essentially dipping into non-redundant talent. That's bad news for them unless they can manage to get great return value. Reminds me of the Bailey deal only an order of magnitude worse.
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