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Red Sox to sign David Price
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 1, 2015 17:17:32 GMT -5
With the three year player opt-out, this could be much more than 217m, depending on what you think the chances of decline are. If there is a 30% chance of decline to Sabathia levels in years 6-7, then add $15m. Add another 9m in luxury tax in 2016 (plus more each year unless they dump salary or the luxury cap is raised). True value is somewhere close to $240m, which was expected. .... Huh? Because given the opt-out, the team must assume all the risk of the decline, that risk can (in theory) be added to the cost.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:17:23 GMT -5
Anyone else think DDo is one of those Christmas shoppers who gets you everything on your list and is done shopping by Dec 1st? He skipped Black Friday and got everything at full price though. Right at my max comfort range. Like the opt out actually. Seriously. Dombrowski doesn't mess around. Of course it's not his money...
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 1, 2015 17:19:00 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 1, 2015 17:19:54 GMT -5
why would price opt out? 31MM is going to be hard to beat unless he leads (or is close to the top) statistically pre opt out.. Plus he will be older
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:20:04 GMT -5
Not my money so I don't care but I won't feel great about him until he pitched well in playoffs. Glad they got him though I'll feel great about getting back into the playoffs.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:21:20 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal 7 sec. Confirmed: Price deal with #RedSox is seven years, $217M. No deferred money. Three-year opt-out. With the three year player opt-out, this could be much more than 217m, depending on what you think the chances of decline are. If there is a 30% chance of decline to Sabathia levels in years 6-7, then add $15m. Add another 9m in luxury tax in 2016 (plus more each year unless they dump salary or the luxury cap is raised). True value is somewhere close to $240m, which was expected. Deepjohn, you're pretty funny man. You're always throwing out some economics analysis and I never understand any of it. And I have an economics degree. Much respect bro.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2015 17:21:34 GMT -5
Why would he ever opt out at 33 years old? Unless salaries are go up 40-50% over the next few years, there's no way he opts out. Yeah, would he do better than a 4/124 deal as a 33-year-old?
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 1, 2015 17:21:55 GMT -5
That opt out make all the difference for me. Absolutely. If we're right about how good he is, it absolutely makes the deal a winner (and in fact I bet I'm not the only one who was thinking that the best way to sign an ace would be with an opt-out). Having Price for 3/$93 and then getting a 1st-round pick for him (or whatever a new CBA specifies) is a big win. It is, of course, a massive, massive, massive gamble that he does not get hurt and/or become ineffective to the degree he's clearly not worth that kind of money. Because then you still have 4 more years paying a guy $31M a year who is worth quite a bit less. Let's make it clear now that, should they lose the gamble, it doesn't mean that this was a bad decision. It just doesn't work that way. The irony is that so many people here have been risk-aversive re keeping Buchholz or trading Miley to open up a rotation spot for Wright or Kelly. And those folks, I think, are likely to support this far riskier but just as rational deal (for the simple reason that they have had anecdotal experience with Buchholz's injuries and Kelly's inconsistency, and they are only factoring in the downside in their risk evaluation).
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2015 17:22:33 GMT -5
Why would he ever opt out at 33 years old? Unless salaries are go up 40-50% over the next few years, there's no way he opts out. Greinke opted out at 32. If Price's agent thinks they can get more, they'll go get more. Or put another way, if he's healthy and still performing at a high level, there's always a crazy owner out there to show us there's always a crazy owner out there.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2015 17:24:10 GMT -5
That opt out make all the difference for me. Absolutely. If we're right about how good he is, it absolutely makes the deal a winner (and in fact I bet I'm not the only one who was thinking that the best way to sign an ace would be with an opt-out). Having Price for 3/$93 and then getting a 1st-round pick for him (or whatever a new CBA specifies) is a big win. It is, of course, a massive, massive, massive gamble that he does not get hurt and/or become ineffective to the degree he's clearly not worth that kind of money. Because then you still have 4 more years paying a guy $31M a year who is worth quite a bit less.Let's make it clear now that, should they lose the gamble, it doesn't mean that this was a bad decision. It just doesn't work that way. The irony is that so many people here have been risk-aversive re keeping Buchholz or trading Miley to open up a rotation spot for Wright or Kelly. And those folks, I think, are likely to support this far riskier but just as rational deal (for the simple reason that they have had anecdotal experience with Buchholz's injuries and Kelly's inconsistency, and they are only factoring in the downside in their risk evaluation). So is signing any FA pitcher over 30. In this case, if he does stay healthy and continues to pitch well, someone else can pay for his decline.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:24:26 GMT -5
Why would he ever opt out at 33 years old? Unless salaries are go up 40-50% over the next few years, there's no way he opts out. Yeah, would he do better than a 4/124 deal as a 33-year-old? He'd opt out only if he's not declining yet, at which point, the Red Sox would benefit from keeping him at 4/124. Not looking forward to months of arguing with people that opt-outs are only for the benefit of the player and not for the team. The team assumes all risk and get no additional benefit that he may outperform the contract.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 1, 2015 17:25:15 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 2m2 minutes ago The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 1, 2015 17:26:34 GMT -5
It's a pleasure to watch Dave Dombrowski operate. He's transparent and acts with decisiveness. Says he wants a Closer, 4th OF, and an Ace pitcher. Boom, boom, boom. When he sets his sights on someone he rarely misses.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2015 17:26:36 GMT -5
@nickcafardo 4m4 minutes ago The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal.
I think this is the first time I've ever agreed with a Cafardo tweet.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 1, 2015 17:26:54 GMT -5
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 1, 2015 17:27:39 GMT -5
That opt out make all the difference for me. Absolutely. If we're right about how good he is, it absolutely makes the deal a winner (and in fact I bet I'm not the only one who was thinking that the best way to sign an ace would be with an opt-out). Having Price for 3/$93 and then getting a 1st-round pick for him (or whatever a new CBA specifies) is a big win. It is, of course, a massive, massive, massive gamble that he does not get hurt and/or become ineffective to the degree he's clearly not worth that kind of money. Because then you still have 4 more years paying a guy $31M a year who is worth quite a bit less. Let's make it clear now that, should they lose the gamble, it doesn't mean that this was a bad decision. It just doesn't work that way. The irony is that so many people here have been risk-aversive re keeping Buchholz or trading Miley to open up a rotation spot for Wright or Kelly. And those folks, I think, are likely to support this far riskier but just as rational deal (for the simple reason that they have had anecdotal experience with Buchholz's injuries and Kelly's inconsistency, and they are only factoring in the downside in their risk evaluation). Agree. I don't think the downside is significant, given his mechanics and history, and even his apparent bad luck in the playoffs. Even if there is a downside, it's only money (see my post above), of which the Sox currently have plenty. Bradley, Betts, and the other untouchables are safe! Awesome deal for the Sox. Dombro and the new front office are crushing it, in my book. Now if they would hire ericmvan back...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2015 17:27:28 GMT -5
As I noted on Twitter, Price's opt out is the same year as Kershaw's. Other FA's that offseason, assuming no extensions: Harper, Harvey, Fernandez, McCutchen, Donaldson. THAT could be a fun offseason.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 1, 2015 17:29:07 GMT -5
@nickcafardo 4m4 minutes ago The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal. I think this is the first time I've ever agreed with a Cafardo tweet. Cafardo stole this from this forum, posted here sometime ago.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 1, 2015 17:28:53 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 2m2 minutes ago The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal. Miley for a good young reliever and a prospect would rock. I've been too busy to even post here much, but in my mind I've created all sorts of further analyses that demonstrate that both Kelly and Wright are better.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 1, 2015 17:29:06 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 2m2 minutes ago The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal. I mean I'm not opposed to a Miley and/or Kelly trade, but are either really going to bring back much of what the Sox sent for Kimbrel?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2015 17:29:34 GMT -5
Yeah, would he do better than a 4/124 deal as a 33-year-old? He'd opt out only if he's not declining yet, at which point, the Red Sox would benefit from keeping him at 4/124. Not looking forward to months of arguing with people that opt-outs are only for the benefit of the player and not for the team. The team assumes all risk and get no additional benefit that he may outperform the contract. Kershaw and Harper are FAs the same off-season that Price is able to opt out. Crazy cash will be in the air.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 1, 2015 17:30:43 GMT -5
I have to say I'm pretty excited about this deal. Bottom line -- DD wasted no time, went out and got the best FA pitcher without giving up the #12 pick. Of course it comes at a cost, but so be it. The plan is simple, identify our needs and plug them with the best players available. Done. Our team looks pretty stacked all of a sudden....I hope Price can help send off Ortiz with another ring.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:32:37 GMT -5
He'd opt out only if he's not declining yet, at which point, the Red Sox would benefit from keeping him at 4/124. Not looking forward to months of arguing with people that opt-outs are only for the benefit of the player and not for the team. The team assumes all risk and get no additional benefit that he may outperform the contract. Kershaw and Harper are FAs the same off-season that Price is able to opt out. Crazy cash will be in the air. That makes it less likely that he opts out regardless of how he is doing.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2015 17:32:42 GMT -5
Yeah, would he do better than a 4/124 deal as a 33-year-old? He'd opt out only if he's not declining yet, at which point, the Red Sox would benefit from keeping him at 4/124. Not looking forward to months of arguing with people that opt-outs are only for the benefit of the player and not for the team. The team assumes all risk and get no additional benefit that he may outperform the contract. They get no additional long-term benefit. There is enormous short-term benefit, because they now have David Price, who may very well be the best pitcher in the American League, on their baseball team, for just 3/$93.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 1, 2015 17:33:27 GMT -5
Why would he ever opt out at 33 years old? Unless salaries are go up 40-50% over the next few years, there's no way he opts out. Greinke opted out at 32. If Price's agent thinks they can get more, they'll go get more. Or put another way, if he's healthy and still performing at a high level, there's always a crazy owner out there to show us there's always a crazy owner out there. Yeah it's not farfetched to think he might be able to get more than 124/4 at 33.
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