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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:35:11 GMT -5
He'd opt out only if he's not declining yet, at which point, the Red Sox would benefit from keeping him at 4/124. Not looking forward to months of arguing with people that opt-outs are only for the benefit of the player and not for the team. The team assumes all risk and get no additional benefit that he may outperform the contract. They get no additional long-term benefit. There is enormous short-term benefit, because they now have David Price, who may very well be the best pitcher in the American League, on their baseball team, for just 3/$93. I get that. That is the only possible benefit that the team gets - at the point of actually signing the contract. If that's the only possible way he signed, then I'm ok with it, but I doubt that was the case. I hate this precedent. Teams get stuck with terrible contracts way too often now and they're basically getting rid of the ability for the team to ever get a bargain with the opt-outs. Probably the next type of deal will be Harper getting a contract with opt-outs after every season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 1, 2015 17:36:47 GMT -5
We don't know that he will be walking away from 4/124. He might be walking away from 4/100. We don't know the structure yet.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 1, 2015 17:37:20 GMT -5
That opt out make all the difference for me. Absolutely. If we're right about how good he is, it absolutely makes the deal a winner (and in fact I bet I'm not the only one who was thinking that the best way to sign an ace would be with an opt-out). Having Price for 3/$93 and then getting a 1st-round pick for him (or whatever a new CBA specifies) is a big win. It is, of course, a massive, massive, massive gamble that he does not get hurt and/or become ineffective to the degree he's clearly not worth that kind of money. Because then you still have 4 more years paying a guy $31M a year who is worth quite a bit less. Let's make it clear now that, should they lose the gamble, it doesn't mean that this was a bad decision. It just doesn't work that way. The irony is that so many people here have been risk-aversive re keeping Buchholz or trading Miley to open up a rotation spot for Wright or Kelly. And those folks, I think, are likely to support this far riskier but just as rational deal (for the simple reason that they have had anecdotal experience with Buchholz's injuries and Kelly's inconsistency, and they are only factoring in the downside in their risk evaluation). 22, 76, 92, 174, 83, 189 (92 ERA+ ,4.65 FIP), 108, 170- (75 ERA+,4.01 FIP) ,113 Above is Clay's IP for each year of his career and the last 2 seasons he's pitched more than 113 innings he's been bad as noted by both ERA+ & FIP. How is that anecdotal? 2010 was his last fairly healthy AND productive season. If you cannot rely on the guy then why rely on him?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2015 17:37:24 GMT -5
and they're basically getting rid of the ability for the team to ever get a bargain with the opt-outs. My heart bleeds for the billionaires who will now have a harder time getting as much surplus value from the workers.
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sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
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Post by sdl on Dec 1, 2015 17:37:34 GMT -5
Welcome To Boston!
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:38:19 GMT -5
and they're basically getting rid of the ability for the team to ever get a bargain with the opt-outs. My heart bleeds for the billionaires who will now have a harder time getting as much surplus value from the workers. Haha, surplus value from the workers making over $200 million. Let's be honest here. We're rooting for the Red Sox to have enough financial flexibility to be able to sign who they want every year. You have to "root" for the owners in some way for that to happen.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 1, 2015 17:38:33 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 27s27 seconds ago The #RedSox needed a decision by today by David Price so they didn't lose out on Greinke as well. Greinke was their back-up plan.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2015 17:38:50 GMT -5
Initial reaction before having read anything else: not great, but I'm fine with it.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:39:31 GMT -5
It's a pleasure to watch Dave Dombrowski operate. He's transparent and acts with decisiveness. Says he wants a Closer, 4th OF, and an Ace pitcher. Boom, boom, boom. When he sets his sights on someone he rarely misses. Seriously. I've been one of the skeptics on DD here, but I absolutely love this about the guy. He's not messing about. I read somewhere that one reason teams like trading with him is if he wants your guy, he'll pay the price, as long as you don't try to screw him around - because he can see that too. Give your price, don't waste my time. makes me wonder what the Indians/White Sox are asking for Carrasco/Sale. If DD says no to that, you know it's gotta be really excessive.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 1, 2015 17:40:07 GMT -5
We don't know that he will be walking away from 4/124. He might be walking away from 4/100. We don't know the structure yet. First three years are $30mm each, as reported. He'd be walking away from 4/$127mm.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 1, 2015 17:40:39 GMT -5
I've been critical (or at least not entirely supportive) of Dave's approach thus far, but I love this deal. About what I was expecting.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 1, 2015 17:41:23 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 24s25 seconds ago The #RedSox are expected to have a press conference Friday at Fenway Park to introduce David Price.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:42:18 GMT -5
This was so much better than the Lester situation last year. That contract probably climbed $50 million from the beginning of negotiations.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2015 17:42:10 GMT -5
Kershaw and Harper are FAs the same off-season that Price is able to opt out. Crazy cash will be in the air. That makes it less likely that he opts out regardless of how he is doing. Someone will get crazy after the Dodgers re-up Kershaw and buy Harper.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 1, 2015 17:43:20 GMT -5
Any word yet on the 40man moves for Young and Price?
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 1, 2015 17:44:58 GMT -5
We don't know that he will be walking away from 4/124. He might be walking away from 4/100. We don't know the structure yet. First three years are $30mm each, as reported. He'd be walking away from 4/$127mm. Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 2m2 minutes ago David Price's annual salaries: 30, 30, 30, 31, 32, 32. 32. No deferred money in deal. Opt out after 3 yrs #redsox
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:45:33 GMT -5
Any word yet on the 40man moves for Young and Price? They can wait awhile I think. It's more of a paperwork thing and they can hold off on official signings based on physicals or whatever.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 1, 2015 17:45:08 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 1m1 minute ago David Price's annual salaries: 30, 30, 30, 31, 32, 32. 32. No deferred money in deal. Opt out after 3 yrs #redsox
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 1, 2015 17:45:39 GMT -5
and they're basically getting rid of the ability for the team to ever get a bargain with the opt-outs. My heart bleeds for the billionaires who will now have a harder time getting as much surplus value from the workers. Yeah! Go tell it on the mountain!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 1, 2015 17:46:14 GMT -5
PSYCHED!!! You guys have already said it all so I won't bother.
I am going to throw this number out there, 95 wins.
I am trying to stay on the wagon and its been easy til right now, so happy I want to have a celebratory drink. But I won't.
Thanks DD
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 1, 2015 17:46:09 GMT -5
Any word yet on the 40man moves for Young and Price? No, because neither move is official. Likely, DD will be pursuing trades 24/7 before Friday.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Dec 1, 2015 17:47:25 GMT -5
Deferred money would have made this deal so much better.
Still happy we kept the farm in tact so that we can survive if this deal doesn't work out (like the Giants with Zito -even though Price is a better pitcher).
In terms of a trade, I don't see a need because Buchholz and Kelly could combine for 200 innings but neither get you there alone. Unless you really have faith in Owens, I think having Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Kelly and Owens is a good example of ideal depth.
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Post by dridiot on Dec 1, 2015 17:47:03 GMT -5
A Fangraphs article I'd love to read: an analysis of the history of opt-out clauses in (large) contracts, taking into account WAR before the contract was signed, WAR during the pre-opt-out phase, and WAR after the opt-out phase.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:47:35 GMT -5
The other thing with the Dombrowski approach is that we don't get the 60-page threads discussing the Theo/Ben four-way deals/long winded negotiations. I'm gonna miss those days. or not.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 17:49:48 GMT -5
A Fangraphs article I'd love to read: an analysis of the history of opt-out clauses in (large) contracts, taking into account WAR before the contract was signed, WAR during the pre-opt-out phase, and WAR after the opt-out phase. There probably haven't been enough long enough ago to come to any conclusions.
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