|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 17, 2015 5:48:26 GMT -5
when i saw this BA Alex chat, I again doubt. that's trey ball. our site too much high to him. Alex said in the chat he has Ball top 20. |
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 17, 2015 5:49:49 GMT -5
Marrero over Longhi says it all Says all of what? A single A first baseman vs. a AAA/MLB shortstop. |
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,071
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2015 8:11:32 GMT -5
Finally had time to read the chat. Roniel Raudes is the new binky prospect. Will be interesting to watch him this year. He will be many peoples pick for highest jump in the rankings, I'm
guessing.
I had read this before but forgot it. Espinoza has very long fingers. That's huge for a pitcher.. The was what allowed Pedro to do what he could do with a baseball. I wish someone would do a study on pitchers finger length and how that correlates to movement generated. Certainly not perfect since all mechanics and height and arm angles are not the same but it's a huge advantage.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 17, 2015 8:52:10 GMT -5
I know we have a love hate relationship in here with comps, but I loved it when Benintendi was referred to as a LH Mookie Betts in the BA chat.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 17, 2015 9:30:30 GMT -5
I'm guessing the sources who considered Benintendi the system's best prospect were down on Devers and Moncada relative to others as well. I personally think that's kind of insane. I look forward to picking Alex's brain about this and other things on the podcast. Frankly, while we're all here, anyone got anything they want us to talk with him about? I'm curious about the disparity between where he would have ranked Guerra and the SAL Top 10 prospects that had Guerra ranked higher than Devers. Is his opinion that much different than the group think ? The league top 10s are a completely different process based on talking with league managers and coaches. It's pretty normal for them to differ from the team and overall rankings. |
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Dec 17, 2015 11:23:22 GMT -5
Finally had time to read the chat. Roniel Raudes is the new binky prospect. Will be interesting to watch him this year. He will be many peoples pick for highest jump in the rankings, I'm guessing. I had read this before but forgot it. Espinoza has very long fingers. That's huge for a pitcher.. The was what allowed Pedro to do what he could do with a baseball. I wish someone would do a study on pitchers finger length and how that correlates to movement generated. Certainly not perfect since all mechanics and height and arm angles are not the same but it's a huge advantage. I think you need to look up the definition of "hinky." |
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,071
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2015 11:29:57 GMT -5
Huh?
|
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Dec 17, 2015 13:16:21 GMT -5
Finally had time to read the chat. Roniel Raudes is the new binky prospect. Will be interesting to watch him this year. He will be many peoples pick for highest jump in the rankings, I'm
guessing.
I had read this before but forgot it. Espinoza has very long fingers. That's huge for a pitcher.. The was what allowed Pedro to do what he could do with a baseball. I wish someone would do a study on pitchers finger length and how that correlates to movement generated. Certainly not perfect since all mechanics and height and arm angles are not the same but it's a huge advantage. It's a shame Speier made no mention of his curveball being 'obedient'. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2015 14:25:35 GMT -5
That 2005 group is complete hindsight... You may feel that way, but I don't. That group of players was one of the reasons why I started following this site. Ramirez was very highly thought of. He scared Edgar Renteria who realized quickly that the kid was better than he was. It was no surprise he was the centerpiece of the Miami trade. Pedroia was acknowledged even then as a player with tremendous hand-eye coordination who could swing very hard and still make solid contact. Sanchez was a personal favorite out of the pitchers and he looked destined for a good career in the majors, which he's had. People often neglect to mention that he was another piece in Marlins' trade. That was a really good group of players, and most of us knew it even then. Ramirez was highly thought of but had a bunch of question marks. How good a hitter was he? Could he play SS in the majors and if he could would he be any good? Did he need to move to another position? Did he really have plus power that he would flash every now and then? Why were his stats decreasing and in general all over the place? Tears up AA in 2004 in limited AB's, then has a very bad year in AA in 2005 when you look at the fact Baseball America ranked him 10th overall. In 2006 they dropped him to 30th overall. Pedroia was the same a million question marks. Everyone knew he could hit and was a fiery guy, but with his size and playing style a lot of people wondered if he could stay healthy and productive in the majors.
Now I agree with the 3 pitchers they were all highly thought of. I remember Gammons on ESPN talking about how the strikeout to walk numbers for all three was elite and something Boston's system hadn't had in a long time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 17, 2015 15:04:27 GMT -5
At midseason 2005, that group may have been comparable. Consider the 2006 BA list:
22 Lester
30 Hanley
37 Papelbon
40 Sanchez
54 Hansen
77 Pedroia
So you've got 4 in the top 40 had they not traded Hanley, but they don't have the top 10 guy or guys that this group has or even the 2013 group had.
We'll see.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2015 17:55:59 GMT -5
At midseason 2005, that group may have been comparable. Consider the 2006 BA list: 22 Lester 30 Hanley 37 Papelbon 40 Sanchez 54 Hansen 77 Pedroia So you've got 4 in the top 40 had they not traded Hanley, but they don't have the top 10 guy or guys that this group has or even the 2013 group had. We'll see. If our current batch does as well as the 2006 prospects we are going to be really good for a very long time. To have only one of six top 100 prospects bust is very rare. To have the other five reach their full potential is very very rare. Add the two together and that was a crazy special class of prospects. Man its good to be a Red Sox fan.
I think one thing to keep in mind is how young our top guys are and how little most have really played, with only Devers playing his second year of minor league ball. By this time next year we will really know what we have.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2015 18:01:04 GMT -5
This was pretty interesting from Speier's chat.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989 
|
Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2015 19:39:23 GMT -5
www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-daniel-murphy-and-power-pitching-sends-mets-to-world-series/ (October 22, 2015) Schwarber says his best friend at Indiana, first baseman Sam Travis “will be the hitting surprise of next season. He can rake, and he’s just like me.” Travis in 198 games since being taken in the ’14 draft has hit .310 with a .384 on base and .457 slug and 16 homers in 198 games. “He is a doubles machine,” says Schwarber, not realizing Fenway is a doubles, not homers park. A Mets official says Travis “is going to be a really good big league hitter right away."
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
|
Post by nomar on Dec 17, 2015 19:50:27 GMT -5
When I saw him in person I realized that he isn't as filled out as his headshot makes him appear to be. I could see him putting on a good amount of weight/muscle mass as he gets into his mid to late twenties. That and by just playing and figuring himself out may add some power to his game.
|
|
|
|
Post by arzjake on Dec 17, 2015 21:23:57 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF..
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
|
Post by nomar on Dec 17, 2015 21:26:28 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. With his glove once he acclimates, there's a good chance he's still worth as much as a solid reliever given his control. Still a decent asset for us. |
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 17, 2015 21:56:15 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. Ranking are not a ceiling list. Cost controlled, major league ready anything has present value. |
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 17, 2015 22:18:06 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. Last year Freddy Galvis put up a .263/.302/.343 triple slash line while playing average SS defense for the Phillies - in his age 25 season. He was worth 1.3 fWAR. I can see Marrero having a similar triple slash line with equivalent (or better) defense. He's probably a 1-1.5 WAR player if given a chance to play full-time. Maybe better if his bat develops or his defense is 'plus' as SS. No way you move Bogaerts for that - but that's still a cost-controlled starter for a second division team, while batting 8th or 9th. That isn't great, but it still has value. (There were 5 teams that had negative fWAR from the SS position in 2015) |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2015 23:45:10 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. I agree he'd not a top 10 prospect in this system, but he might be able to start for some team, just not the Red Sox or any big market team. |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 17, 2015 23:46:07 GMT -5
Yeah, Marrero isn't a guy to get excited about on the Sox, because Bogaerts has SS locked down. But Marrero has a 60-70 glove at SS, which means if he hits .250/.310/.350, and competes for a GG, he's easily a starter and potentially a first-division starter on a team that has sufficient offense to hide his bat. If he improves as a hitter to closer to 2014 Portland level, he might sneak into an AS game or two with a hot start. He'll probably never set the world on fire, but he's absolutely got value as an MLB-ready player with plus defense.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2015 23:54:21 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. Last year Freddy Galvis put up a .263/.302/.343 triple slash line while playing average SS defense for the Phillies - in his age 25 season. He was worth 1.3 fWAR. I can see Marrero having a similar triple slash line with equivalent (or better) defense. He's probably a 1-1.5 WAR player if given a chance to play full-time. Maybe better if his bat develops or his defense is 'plus' as SS. No way you move Bogaerts for that - but that's still a cost-controlled starter for a second division team, while batting 8th or 9th. That isn't great, but it still has value. (There were 5 teams that had negative fWAR from the SS position in 2015) Unless Marrero is one of those rare players that does better in the majors then minors I don't see him batting .263/.302/.343 in the majors. He could struggle to keep his ops above .600. If I had to guess I would say .235/.300/.310. I think his lack of hitting would just about cancel out his great D. If he could hit .263 and slug .343 with his on base skills and D, he might be worth 2-3 bWAR a year. Just don't see him being that good of a hitter and showing that much power. One of the biggest disappointments in our farm system for me. |
|
|
|
Post by sammo420 on Dec 18, 2015 4:41:22 GMT -5
Marrero is 25 with a declining obpct at every level. Top 10 prospect? Not a chance. At best, utility IF.. Last year Freddy Galvis put up a .263/.302/.343 triple slash line while playing average SS defense for the Phillies - in his age 25 season. He was worth 1.3 fWAR. I can see Marrero having a similar triple slash line with equivalent (or better) defense. He's probably a 1-1.5 WAR player if given a chance to play full-time. Maybe better if his bat develops or his defense is 'plus' as SS. No way you move Bogaerts for that - but that's still a cost-controlled starter for a second division team, while batting 8th or 9th. That isn't great, but it still has value. (There were 5 teams that had negative fWAR from the SS position in 2015) |
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 18, 2015 6:59:01 GMT -5
The top 4 in he system is so ridiculously good it's hard to comprehend. I'm not so sure we fully appreciate how rare and difficult it is to have this top 4. And to think the Sox already have a fantastic group of young, homegrown talent at the ML level with these 4 right on their heals. Should be a lot of fun to watch. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2015 7:32:16 GMT -5
Last year Freddy Galvis put up a .263/.302/.343 triple slash line while playing average SS defense for the Phillies - in his age 25 season. He was worth 1.3 fWAR. I can see Marrero having a similar triple slash line with equivalent (or better) defense. He's probably a 1-1.5 WAR player if given a chance to play full-time. Maybe better if his bat develops or his defense is 'plus' as SS. No way you move Bogaerts for that - but that's still a cost-controlled starter for a second division team, while batting 8th or 9th. That isn't great, but it still has value. (There were 5 teams that had negative fWAR from the SS position in 2015) Unless Marrero is one of those rare players that does better in the majors then minors I don't see him batting .263/.302/.343 in the majors. He could struggle to keep his ops above .600. If I had to guess I would say .235/.300/.310. I think his lack of hitting would just about cancel out his great D. If he could hit .263 and slug .343 with his on base skills and D, he might be worth 2-3 bWAR a year. Just don't see him being that good of a hitter and showing that much power. One of the biggest disappointments in our farm system for me. Well, he slashed .256/.316/.344 in AAA last year, so he doesn't have to do better in the majors than he did in the minors to slash .263/.302/.343. He also OPS'd over .800 in AA. |
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Dec 18, 2015 8:38:28 GMT -5
Marrero pretty consistently had a strikeout rate of 16-19% in the minors and it skyrocketed to 33.9% in the majors this year. It's more likely than not that he can make adjustments to bring that strikeout rate down - Steamer, for instance, projects him for a 22.2% K-rate and a resulting .247/.299/.337 line. IF his glove is as good as advertised, that makes him a decent enough second-division starter at shortstop. But it also makes him a quality depth piece for the Red Sox.
|
|
