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Baseball America top 10 prospects
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 19, 2015 17:09:30 GMT -5
It it weren't for Bogaerts, there's a very real chance that ...Jose Iglesias would be our shortstop.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 19, 2015 17:22:58 GMT -5
It it weren't for Bogaerts, there's a very real chance that ...Jose Iglesias would be our shortstop. True, good point. Though I think his glove was elite enough that he may have been traded anyways as a potential "centerpiece". Marrero will only be as much as a part 2 of a deal, which makes it more likely that he would remain in the system regardless
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Post by texs31 on Dec 20, 2015 10:24:36 GMT -5
Clearly it's time for my annual "Reports and, to a lesser extent, grades are about the prospects. Lists are about the people making them." Rant
When the handbook comes out, BA gives a number grade (potential) and a letter (probability). Marrero will either be a 50B or 45A. An indication that they believe he will definitely have a career.
Others ranked behind him may receive 55 but will be Ds and Es (maybe even a C). The fact that Marrero is listed above those higher ceiling guys isn't telling the story about Marrero. It's saying that the "lister" leans toward floor over ceiling. Little more.
Every year, people obsess over rankings when, really, it's just a convenient way to list the players and spark debate.
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Post by arzjake on Dec 20, 2015 11:30:50 GMT -5
When you break down the evaluation of a Prospect at age 25, to me it is a waste of time. The ship has sailed on that type of player. I will say in defense of Marrero, if the Glove is a grade A at multiple positions to include SS, 3B and 2B he has value. Value in the defense for a few games to spell a starter. In exchange for a 2 million bonus, BUST! I would like to know Where Boston was on Piscotty, Gallo and McCullers in that draft? Jeez. I mean they can't all be superstars. Marrero looks like a very useful player. Solid utility guy or a trade option to small market team. As for where they stood on those 3 players? You can play that hindsight game all day long. It's useless. Where were 26 other teams on Betts in rounds 1-5? Complete waste of time. And Rei ahead of Marrero? Now that is comical. You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list...
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 20, 2015 11:46:09 GMT -5
So guys that are 25 cannot be good prospects?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2015 12:07:59 GMT -5
Jeez. I mean they can't all be superstars. Marrero looks like a very useful player. Solid utility guy or a trade option to small market team. As for where they stood on those 3 players? You can play that hindsight game all day long. It's useless. Where were 26 other teams on Betts in rounds 1-5? Complete waste of time. And Rei ahead of Marrero? Now that is comical. You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... Come up with your list so we can ridicule it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2015 17:30:37 GMT -5
Jeez. I mean they can't all be superstars. Marrero looks like a very useful player. Solid utility guy or a trade option to small market team. As for where they stood on those 3 players? You can play that hindsight game all day long. It's useless. Where were 26 other teams on Betts in rounds 1-5? Complete waste of time. And Rei ahead of Marrero? Now that is comical. You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... I'm beginning to think that something bad happened to you at age 25.Seriously though, should Johnson not be ranked either? He's 25 too. As for "comical", I'd say it's more apt to describe the fact that you would rank a number of guys who aren't on either ours or Alex's top 30s ahead of Marrero.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Dec 21, 2015 11:57:31 GMT -5
Jeez. I mean they can't all be superstars. Marrero looks like a very useful player. Solid utility guy or a trade option to small market team. As for where they stood on those 3 players? You can play that hindsight game all day long. It's useless. Where were 26 other teams on Betts in rounds 1-5? Complete waste of time. And Rei ahead of Marrero? Now that is comical. You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... A team like the Sox will always have 25 yr old "prospects" in their system. It's because the Boston roster is always stocked with good ballplayers, and that makes entry to ML more difficult. Marrero is still a prospect, whether it fits your definition, or not.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 21, 2015 15:44:37 GMT -5
You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... A team like the Sox will always have 25 yr old "prospects" in their system. It's because the Boston roster is always stocked with good ballplayers, and that makes entry to ML more difficult. Marrero is still a prospect, whether it fits your definition, or not. I agree. I think marrero could have been on the major league roster of a couple of teams last April. His defense is outstanding and he has a little mijo with the bat,
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2015 15:48:11 GMT -5
I agree he'd not a top 10 prospect in this system, but he might be able to start for some team, just not the Red Sox or any big market team. Well, as I always ask in response to any "this guy shouldn't be ranked that high!" comment, what player(s) would you rank higher? As great as the top 7 is, there is an enormous drop-off from Travis to Marrero. I get the sentiment of "what the hell is Marrero doing at 8?" because that's basically what I thought after the trade, but the fact is that an above-average-to-plus MLB defender at short has a pretty high floor. Compare that with, say, the next five guys in the rankings here at the site, who could all fail to get past Double-A and have significant development ahead of them. Meanwhile, while Marrero's ceiling would probably be starting on a second-division team for a few years, his floor is probably an MLB bench infielder, given his defense at second, third, and short. It hurts that he can't run and I doubt he'll hit, but in an environment where AL shortstops hit .264/.311/.380 and only 17 shortstops in MLB were at at least 90 wRC+, Marrero isn't going to need to hit a ton to justify a roster spot (if not a starting job). I'm assuming Alex will agree with what we've said on the podcast previously: The system is about as good as it's ever been from 1-7 (1-9 before the trade), but especially after the trade, it's really thin relative to past years from about 8-25, where you'd feel a lot more comfortable if everyone were ranked about 4-5 spots lower than they currently are, if not more. I would move any of the guys you have below him up and move him down to the 11-12 range. I would rank the young high upside guys before him, because we know he doesn't have a high upside at this point.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 21, 2015 16:23:30 GMT -5
Jeez. I mean they can't all be superstars. Marrero looks like a very useful player. Solid utility guy or a trade option to small market team. As for where they stood on those 3 players? You can play that hindsight game all day long. It's useless. Where were 26 other teams on Betts in rounds 1-5? Complete waste of time. And Rei ahead of Marrero? Now that is comical. You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... Rei ahead of Marrero is a Rip Van Winkle pick, like you've been asleep since the draft (when he did seem like a great pick). Like saying you're for John Edwards for president.
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Post by xycosis on Dec 21, 2015 22:06:34 GMT -5
Norris from BA was having a chat about the Yankees top 10. Found these interesting:
Joe Maccarone (Brooklyn, NY): Where would Anderson Espinoza rank in the Yankees top 10? Josh Norris: No. 1 for me. Some might rank him behind Mateo, but I think when our Top 100 comes out he’s going to be a Top 10-15 prospect in the game.
------------------------- sam (nyc): How much better than Mateo is Moncada? I still can't let go of Hal letting him go to the Sox. Josh Norris: Jorge Mateo is Top 100 guy. Yoan Moncada is likely to be in our Top 10 prospects overall. The ceiling is high for both, but Moncada could be a superstar.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 22, 2015 2:51:39 GMT -5
Norris from BA was having a chat about the Yankees top 10. Found these interesting: Joe Maccarone (Brooklyn, NY): Where would Anderson Espinoza rank in the Yankees top 10? Josh Norris: No. 1 for me. Some might rank him behind Mateo, but I think when our Top 100 comes out he’s going to be a Top 10-15 prospect in the game. ------------------------- sam (nyc): How much better than Mateo is Moncada? I still can't let go of Hal letting him go to the Sox. Josh Norris: Jorge Mateo is Top 100 guy. Yoan Moncada is likely to be in our Top 10 prospects overall. The ceiling is high for both, but Moncada could be a superstar. Love that kind of talk! Fear and loathing still running wild in the Big Apple. They're hearing footsteps, and it's the sound of cleats worn by Sox' prospects.
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Post by slam761 on Dec 22, 2015 4:42:43 GMT -5
Yea valid point if you want to take it to the extreme. But I did not mean it to that extreme. Plenty of guys could hit .220 and play very good defense. It's a lot more readily available than we make it out to be. The reason we dont see more of that is because teams don't want that. They will take chances on lessor defenders who they think might hit vs a better defender they know won't hit better than say .220. Defense is a much easier skill than hitting. I understand the point you're making - but you need to consider 'position'. If you're talking about a LFer, then sure. But the higher you go up the defensive spectrum, the less true this becomes. It's also much less true today than it was 10-20 years ago. Marcus Thames is CRUSHING the ball overseas and has a career 104 wRC+/.339 wOBA/.794 OPS in MLB - but nobody is rushing to pay him huge money, primarily because of his defense. And certainly nobody is looking to sign him as a SS. ...I'm pretty sure no one's rushing to sign Marcus Thames primarily because he retired in 2011, actually. Eric Thames is kind of a different person.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 22, 2015 7:52:15 GMT -5
Wow. So by midseason we could easily have 3 top 10 prospects (and Benintendi not far behind). Exciting.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2015 8:09:38 GMT -5
Sounds like we have 3 top 15 guys right now and Moncada is probably top 5.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 22, 2015 8:45:05 GMT -5
Great podcast, gentlemen. Alex is always very interesting and thorough.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 22, 2015 9:12:52 GMT -5
Norris from BA was having a chat about the Yankees top 10. Found these interesting: Joe Maccarone (Brooklyn, NY): Where would Anderson Espinoza rank in the Yankees top 10? Josh Norris: No. 1 for me. Some might rank him behind Mateo, but I think when our Top 100 comes out he’s going to be a Top 10-15 prospect in the game. ------------------------- sam (nyc): How much better than Mateo is Moncada? I still can't let go of Hal letting him go to the Sox. Josh Norris: Jorge Mateo is Top 100 guy. Yoan Moncada is likely to be in our Top 10 prospects overall. The ceiling is high for both, but Moncada could be a superstar. Love that kind of talk! Fear and loathing still running wild in the Big Apple. They're hearing footsteps, and it's the sound of cleats worn by Sox' prospects. Ahhh yes. This is like putting an extra log on the fire on a during a New England wintry blizzard. But fear and loathing runs both ways and always will. I am concerned about Bird, Judge and Severino not to mention Mateo.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Dec 22, 2015 10:00:08 GMT -5
Late to the party, but Austin Rei versus Marrero is an amusing debate.
I like Rei, I'm willing to give him a pass on his really poor showing in Lowell this year because he was coming off an injury. He was a good value pick and people liked his catch and throw profile as an amateur- it seems odd that he would completely lose it turning pro.
However, he's not exactly young. He was 21 in the NYPL. If he moves up a level a year, he won't be in the majors until he's about 25, kind of like Marrero. Also, kind of like Marrero, the way he would contribute value would largely be the same- bad bat (though in this case maybe a little power) at a position in which people can't hit, plus a good glove.
The differences of course being that Marrero is closer to the majors. Has a demonstrated ability to be a plus defender and isn't currently making scouts question where the promising defender the team drafted went.
Best case scenario- Rei is probably a second division starter or an awesome back up and there are a lot of negative outcomes between that and where he is today. It would be a win for him to be as well regarded as Marrero, 3 years from now.
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Post by digit on Dec 22, 2015 17:20:25 GMT -5
I think you have to evaluate catchers on a different scale than shortstops, just because they generally develop slower (due to needing to spend more time working with pitchers, etc, let alone hitting.)
Him reaching the majors at 25 would be -better- than Marrero reaching the majors at 25, frankly, and would be a bigger win than you think.
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Post by thursty on Dec 22, 2015 17:31:36 GMT -5
Wow, Speier really loves Benintendi - fulsome praise, almost untoward. And I suspect he's not reflecting only his opinion; the FO must also be all in
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Post by arzjake on Dec 22, 2015 22:36:55 GMT -5
You know what is more Comical, Marrero age 25 as the 8th rated Prospect on the list... I'm beginning to think that something bad happened to you at age 25.Seriously though, should Johnson not be ranked either? He's 25 too. Your a smart guy, you know the difference. Marrero has no bat. The obpct has declined at every level. Johnson was pitching at high level in AAA. On to Boston then injury.. Yes the jury is still out, but the potential is there. The fact is NLonghi is a top 10 prospect. Not marrero. A mistake was made by the Scouts running the site, that's all. We all make mistakes, even soxprospects.com
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2015 7:07:38 GMT -5
I'm beginning to think that something bad happened to you at age 25.Seriously though, should Johnson not be ranked either? He's 25 too. Your a smart guy, you know the difference. Marrero has no bat. The obpct has declined at every level. Johnson was pitching at high level in AAA. On to Boston then injury.. Yes the jury is still out, but the potential is there. The fact is NLonghi is a top 10 prospect. Not marrero. A mistake was made by the Scouts running the site, that's all. We all make mistakes, even soxprospects.com Welcome Mrs. Longhi! Always great to have a player's Mom on the site! Your a welcome addition, and we look forward to you're future contributions.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 23, 2015 9:29:30 GMT -5
Wow, Speier really loves Benintendi - fulsome praise, almost untoward. And I suspect he's not reflecting only his opinion; the FO must also be all inI've sort of assumed this was true since they traded Margot away. It makes sense that they think Benintendi is a gem which made Margot less internally valuable (note: NOT getting into that trade, there's another thread for that, just making a point about Benintendi)
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 23, 2015 9:58:50 GMT -5
Already marked my calendar: April 26-28, 2016, Salem Red Sox @ Frederick Keys. Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, probably Kopech, Longhi, maybe Chavis, Ysla ... woo-hoo!
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