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2016 Non-Sox Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2016 11:23:22 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 23, 2016 12:01:22 GMT -5
Wow I see he also has 15 walks and 15 hits in 12 1/3 innings ... his control issues need a lot of work for sure.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Sept 23, 2016 12:17:52 GMT -5
Wow I see he also has 15 walks and 15 hits in 12 1/3 innings ... his control issues need a lot of work for sure. Abad was such a steal!
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 25, 2016 18:48:43 GMT -5
What a way to send vin off
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 25, 2016 22:29:06 GMT -5
What a way to send vin off
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2016 15:51:06 GMT -5
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Post by templeusox on Sept 27, 2016 17:51:37 GMT -5
Looks like Joaquin Benoit hurt himself in yesterday's brawl. If Boston matches up with them in the first round, that could significantly hurt the Sox chances.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 28, 2016 10:48:34 GMT -5
Looks like Joaquin Benoit hurt himself in yesterday's brawl. If Boston matches up with them in the first round, that could significantly hurt the Sox chances. He actually tripped when he exited the bullpen. He's been lights out against everyone not named David Ortiz. I'm sure if he was on the mound in the playoffs & Ortiz comes up, he would have been hurled into the dugout by Gibbons.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 30, 2016 1:06:48 GMT -5
Manuel Margot is off to a nice start so far. Four extra base hits in his last four games. He has a hell of an arm from what I saw.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 30, 2016 1:12:16 GMT -5
Wow Asuaje is called up as well.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2016 3:56:42 GMT -5
The AL Wild Card can be insane given that the Tigers may need to play on Monday to settle it. Imagine the Sox, O's, and Tigers win 2 out of 3 while the Mariners sweep the A's at home, all of which might be your best guess.
Bal 89-73 Tor 88-74 Sea 88-74 Det 87-74.
Detroit has to play on Monday, and if they win you need two more days to break the tie, and Wednesday is supposed to be the AL Wild Card game.
If there's a 3-way tie already with the Tigers as a potential fourth team, that's even hairier. If the Tigers win on Monday, on Tuesday they would play in Seattle and Baltimore would play in Toronto. If Seattle wins, the Tor / Bal winner would fly to Seattle for the WC game; if Detroit wins, they fly to the Bal / Tor winner.
But if the Tigers lose on Monday, you have a 3-way tie for the 2 spots. Toronto would play in Seattle on Tuesday, the loser would play in Baltimore on Wednesday, and the W/C game would be on Thursday, either Toronto or Baltimore at Seattle, or Seattle or Baltimore in Toronto. Toronto might have to play in Seattle, Baltimore, Seattle, Texas on successive days.
One solution for scenarios where there are two teams tied for the second W/C, with Detroit as a potential 3rd would be to arbitrarily give Detroit the tie-breaker in advance. The other two teams would play on Monday, and if Detroit wins, they would go on the road to play against the winner (which is what the tie-break winner does in a 3-team tie, although they do have the choice of playing two home games instead, which is obviously not as smart).
Tie-break orders:
4-team: Sea, Tor, Bal, Det 3 team w/o Tor: Sea, Det or Bal in various 2nd and 3rd tiebreaker scenarios 3 team w/o Bal: Tor, Det, Sea 3 team w/o Det: Sea, Tor, Bal 3 team w/o Sea: Tor, Bal, Det
2 tms: Bal > Det Det > Sea Sea > Bal Sea > Tor (via 2nd tiebreaker) Tor > Bal Tor > Det
So it would be really unfair to give the Tigers that advantage. If you do it the right way, you could swap the ALDS and NLDS, starting the former on Friday and the latter on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Texas may be sitting around having no idea which of 3 or 4 teams they'll be playing, while we'll have all that time knowing we're hosting the Indians. Another good reason to punt first seed (although the Indians will be rested while the W/C winner may well be exhausted).
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Post by Coreno on Sept 30, 2016 12:41:22 GMT -5
The umps from the Cincy - STL game last night is taking a lot of heat, but I cant really find any way to not give Bryan Price 100% of the blame for not challenging that call right away.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2016 2:22:37 GMT -5
Coin flip outcomes for the AL WC race as of Sunday night, out of 256 combinations.
1) 88 (34.4%) it's settled:
42 Bal hosts Tor 33 Tor hosts Bal 9 Bal hosts Det 3 Bal hosts Sea 1 Sea hosts Bal
2) 3 where Det plays Monday to determine whether they (if they win) or Bal hosts the WC game
3) 13 more where Det is eliminated (there's a 64.1% chance that they need to play on Monday to help settle the WC):
10 where Toronto flies to Seattle Monday for a WC2 play-in game, winner goes to Baltimore 1 where Baltimore flies to Seattle to see who goes to Toronto 2 where Sea, Tor, and Bal are tied. Tor flies to Sea for WC1 play-in. Loser of that game flies to Bal for WC2 play-in on Tuesday, and AL WC is pushed to Wednesday. Toronto could play in Boston, Seattle, Baltimore, Seattle, and Texas on consecutive days.
4) 52 where Det plays Monday to try to force a WC2 play-in game on Tuesday:
40 where they would fly to Tor to see who flies to Bal 6 where they would fly to Sea to see who faces Bal 6 where they would fly to Bal to see who faces Tor
5) 18 where Det plays Monday to try and turn a 2 way tie for WC2 into a 3-way:
16 where Bal is WC1 and Tor will fly to Sea on Tuesday for WC2 play-in if Det loses, but if Det wins, Sea flies to Det on Tuesday, and the winner hosts Tor on Wednesday, the AL WC game is Thursday, and the first two games of the Texas / WC game will presumably be delayed, wiping out the travel day between games 3 and 4 . Seattle could go Seattle, travel day, Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, and Texas on consecutive days. 2, same thing but with Bal and Tor reversed.
6) 14 where Det plays Monday to try and turn a settled WC (via tiebreaker) into a 3-way tie for the two spots.
12 where Tor would be hosting Bal, but if Det wins, that game gets turned into a Tuesday play-in game for WC1 instead. Loser goes to Det on Wed for a WC2 play-in game. Again, WC game is Thursday and the Texas ALDS is pushed back. 2 where it's Sea hosting Bal, same thing.
7) 4 where Sea, Tor, and Bal are tied and Det plays Monday to force a 4-way. I'm guessing the 4-way tiebreaker would be Det (4 seed) at Sea (1 seed) and Bal (3 seed) at Tor (2 seed) on Tuesday, with highest seed hosting the WC game on Wed. Yes, a 4-way tie is resolved in 1 fewer day than a 3-way!
8) 32 where Det plays on Monday to try and clinch WC2, but if the lose, they have to play a play-in game on Tuesday:
26 where Bal is WC1, and if Det loses on Monday, they have to go to Tor for the WC2 play-in. 3 where Bal is WC1, and they have to go to Sea if the lose 3 where Tor is WC1, and they have to go to Bal if they lose
9) 23 where Det plays on Monday to clinch WC2, but if the lose, they create a 3-way tie for it:
22 where Bal is WC1, and if Det loses on Monday, there's a Tor, Det, Sea tie for WC2, just like in 5) above. 1 where Tor is WC1, and if Det loses on Monday, Sea is the first seed and I'm not bothering to figure out who the second would be, Bal or Det.
10) 7 where Det plays on Monday to clinch WC1, but if they lose, they turn a 1-game play-in for WC2 into a 3-way tie for 2 spots:
6 where Bal is going to Tor for a Tuesday WC2 play-in if Det wins, but if they lose, that game gets turned into a play-in for WC1, and it continues just as in 6) above. 1 where it's Sea that is hosting Bal, again like 6) above.
11) 2 where Det plays on Mon to clinch WC1, but if they lose, they turn a Sea, Tor, Bal 3-way tie for WC2 into a 4-way tie for the 2 spots.
It looks like the odds that the Texas ALDS will have to be pushed back a day are as high as 15%. Odds that there's a play-in game of some sort appear to be 42%. So there's about a 24% chance that the Monday Tigers game settles it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2016 11:08:20 GMT -5
The O's taking the WC lead is a big deal, because they are set up to use Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez (who has had his own E-Rod like transformation starting 8/25: 57 ERA -, 87 FIP-, 97 xFIP-) in the WC game and game 1 / 5 of the ALDS, their choice, while the other WC contenders have messier rotation situations. Right now I very much like the odds of Baltimore getting to the ALCS.
Projected wins for the 4 AL wild card contenders:
FG Bal 89.0 Tor 88.0 Det 87.8 Sea 87.1
BP Bal 89.0 Tor 87.8 Det 87.6 Sea 87.2
Me (based on results rather than ROS projections, but with better SoS adjustment) Bal 89.0 Tor 87.8 Det 87.6 Sea 87.3
If this happened, Detroit would beat Cleveland on Monday to tie Toronto. They would go to Toronto for a Tuesday WC2 play-in game, with the Jays starting Liriano or Stroman and the Tigers starting Buck Farmer or Matt Boyd.
An interesting strategy for the Tigers would be to take their chances with Farmer or Boyd in the Monday game, since they'd be going up against the Indians throwing a bullpen game, and saving Fulmer for the play-in game if it happens.
Pushing the WC game to Wednesday allows the Jays to use Estrada. The Tigers would use Norris.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 1, 2016 14:08:09 GMT -5
Jon Lester needs 2.1 innings today for another 200 inning season. Already has his 30 starts. I'm really hoping for a Red Sox vs Cubs World Series. Will root for a Papi walk off to end his career with another ring. If The Cubs get one for their fans after more than a 100 years, so be it.
Lester getting hit today, but he has another 30 plus start, 200 inning year. Take that without knowing the results any year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 0:29:42 GMT -5
Mariners eliminated in agonizing fashion: down a run in the 10th, man on second and nobody out, Cano, Cruz, and Seager up next ... and Ryan Madson gets them all. Mariners' Win Probability went 76, 14, 36 (Cano HR), 10, 55 (Cruz HR), 18, 70 (tied 8-8 in the bottom of the 9th with the lead runner on 1B), 13, 42 (but higher with that trio of hitters up), 0.
Oh, and Scott Servais sent Iwakuma out to pitch the 4th in an elimination game after he had given up 4 runs in the 3rd, on 1B-GB, 1B-INF, 1B-LD, Kc, 2B, 2B-LD, Ks, 1B-LD, FO. Seriously.
And then left him in the 4th as he gave up GO, 2B-LD, PU, 1B-LD. He then used a rested Drew Storen, who's been really good for them, for one batter (Ks), and turned the game over to guys who have been less good.
Glad I'm not a Mariners fan. That makes JF look like Earl Weaver.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 1:53:09 GMT -5
6 of the 15 games tomorrow are meaningful. How cool is that?
Coin flip odds have our HF advantage as 50-50. Also 50-50 that it will be decided by Cleveland in Detroit. However, that's bullpen vs. Michael Fulmer, and we have an edge in both home field and the matchups tomorrow (theirs is Josh Tomlin vs. Ian Kennedy), so you have to like our odds.
There are 6 chances in 16 that Detroit needs to play on Monday for a shot at a WC tie -- all the ones where they win and either Bal or Tor loses. However, in half of those the Monday game will also decide our HF, so there are 11 chances of 16 that the Cle / Det game will happen.
By coin flips there's a 1 in 8 chance of a single play-in game and a 1 in 16 chance of a pair of them. Combine that with the 1 in 4 chance in the NL, and there's a 39% chance we'll see a play-in game.
The most interesting scenarios are all obviously ones in which the Tigers win tomorrow, and that game is Verlander vs. Teheran. Wow.
The best of these from a fandom POV is where we and the Indians win and the Orioles (Gausman vs. Cessa) lose. Cle goes to Det, with the Tigers trying to play into a 3-way tie for the two spots and the Indians playing for HF. If the Tigers win, the Bal at Tor WC game on Tuesday instead becomes a play-in game for WC1, while the Tigers chill at home. The Bal / Tor loser plays them there for WC2 on Wednesday. The WC game is pushed back to Thursday and the Texas ALDS games 1 and 2 are pushed back to Friday and Saturday.
The other cool Tigers-win scenarios (for a neutral fan) are where Bal wins and Tor loses and the Indians win to match us, or Tor wins and Bal loses and the Indians lose to match us (so this is twice as likely). Now there's a Monday game where the Tigers are trying to get a shot at a WC2 play-in while the Indians are playing for HF. That play-in would be in Bal or Tor on Tuesday and the WC game would be pushed back to Wednesday in the other city.
Has there ever been a regular season that ended with a single game that had post-season importance for both clubs?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 2, 2016 6:52:29 GMT -5
Has there ever been a regular season that ended with a single game that had post-season importance for both clubs?
1967?
TORONTO ... they don't have a pitcher for TUES. Arent they dim using Sanchez today? YES TOR is the A team in the 3-way tie. in good shape.
EDIT: on 2nd thought, Liriano is pitching on TUES in Wildcard.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 2, 2016 17:03:29 GMT -5
I love Joey Votto.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2016 15:48:43 GMT -5
Final schedule-adjusted standings. I've put most of what's interesting in the bold text, if numbers make you dizzy.
First, the strengths of schedule itself.
You'll note that our schedule was 3.4 games tougher than the Indians and 3.5 tougher than the Rangers; the only reason we don't have home field advantage throughout the post-season is that we had to play 76 games against division opponents that were a schedule-adjusted collective .537.
Home field advantages in both W/C games via tiebreakers went to teams that had significantly easier schedules: the Giants were 1.4 games better than the Mets and the the Orioles 0.8 games better than the Blue Jays.
Tm SoS Bal 4.8 TB 4.6 NYA 4.6 Tor 4.0 Bos 3.9 ChA 1.6 LAA 1.3 Min 1.2 KC 1.2 Det 0.9 Oak 0.9 Hou 0.6 Cle 0.5 Sea 0.4 Tex 0.4 Ari -1.4 SD -1.5 Cin -1.6 SF -1.7 Col -1.9 LAN -2.0 Pit -2.0 ChN -2.2 StL -2.4 Mil -2.5 Atl -2.7 Phi -2.7 Mia -2.8 Was -3.0 NYN -3.1 Swap the Mets and O's, and the Mets are 79-83 and 14 games behind us, while the O's are 97-65, not only win the NL East but have the 2 seed -- rather than being on the road for the W/C. Location, location, location.
There was justice in the Tigers and Mariners choking in their final weekends. We are not worthy!
Average by divisions:
+4.4 AL East +1.1 AL Central +0.7 AL West -1.7 NL West -2.1 NL Central -2.9 NL East
The league difference was 4.3.
Now, here's the True Quality ranking, which is based 90% on schedule-adjusted BaseRuns (batting line and batting line allowed) and 10% on schedule-adjusted results. This is what would be predictive in the post-season if rosters were unchanged, nobody was hurt, and so on.
Team Qual ChN 104.9 Bos 104.7 Tor 94.7 Was 94.6 Cle 92.7 Bal 89.4 LAN 89.3 Det 88.3 SF 87.8 StL 87.5 Sea 84.9 TB 84.0 Tex 83.7 NYN 83.0 NYA 82.9 Hou 82.1 ChA 78.8 Col 77.7 Mia 76.6 KC 75.1 Pit 72.7 Mil 72.7 LAA 72.5 Oak 71.9 Min 70.4 Ari 69.9 Atl 67.2 SD 67.1 Cin 61.5 Phi 61.3 In terms of roster quality over the season, Theo's team edges Theo's old team by 0.2 wins. And then there's everyone else.
The Twins will get the first pick, even though there were 5 NL teams with less impressive-performing rosters.
But of course some teams outplay their stats and some teams fall short of them. That's called Win Efficiency. I call it "karma" (a term you can also apply to an individual player) because it leaves ambiguous the question of whether it's all luck or partly skill.
Final Win Efficiency ranking:
Team Karma Tex 12.9 KC 7.8 Phi 7.7 NYA 6.4 Cin 5.3 Bal 5.1 Pit 4.1 LAA 2.7 Cle 2.6 Hou 2.5 Sea 1.4 NYN 1.1 ChA 0.7 Mia 0.1 LAN 0.0 SD -0.5 Det -0.9 Atl -1.7 Tor -1.7 SF -2.4 Ari -2.4 Mil -2.5 Oak -2.6 Was -2.7 ChN -3.6 StL -4.2 Col -5.0 Bos -8.6 Min -11.6 TB -12.7 Finally, let's take the actual results, schedule-adjusted, and add 11 games (the average playoff run) at True Quality against neutral opponents. That's what I think of as the Fair Standings for the purposes of the post-season. This is who deserves to still be playing.
Team Fair ChN 101.7 Bos 97.6 Cle 94.8 Tex 94.3 Bal 93.4 Tor 93.2 Was 92.2 LAN 89.0 NYA 88.1 Det 87.6 Sea 86.3 SF 85.5 Hou 84.3 StL 84.0 NYN 83.8 KC 81.5 ChA 79.5 Mia 76.7 Pit 76.1 LAA 75.0 TB 73.7 Col 73.6 Mil 70.7 Oak 70.1 Ari 67.8 Phi 67.6 SD 66.6 Cin 65.9 Atl 65.8 Min 61.2 There were 3 AL teams that were more deserving than the Giants and 4 more deserving than the Mets. The most amusing thing is that the Yankees are 4+ games ahead of the Mets (largely because of their karma, but their rosters were equal in quality). Life ain't fair, but which Sox fans are complaining about that one?
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Post by humanbeingbean on Oct 9, 2016 13:59:59 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 12, 2016 13:31:53 GMT -5
Mike Dee is out as the president and CEO of the Padres. Many Sox fans know him as the team's former COO, and Fenway Sports Group president, after he came over with Lucchino (who basically raised him in the industry) from San Diego. He also was the Dolphins CEO for from 2009-13 before returning to the Friars as CEO. Per Dennis Lin, on Dee's most recent departure:
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 1, 2016 22:16:08 GMT -5
Josh Johnson has signed a minor league deal with the Giants. He's now missed three full seasons and is coming off his 3rd(!!!) TJS. It would still be cool to see him come back and be even just a passable bullpen arm.
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Post by klostrophobic on Nov 2, 2016 12:44:09 GMT -5
Johnson was always my favorite player to add in free agency in OOTP. Hope it works out for him. Average velocity after his first two TJs was still 93.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2016 12:47:08 GMT -5
I thought there was some unwritten rule that you couldn't get a 3rd TJS. I guess that has changed.
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