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2016 Non-Sox Thread
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 7, 2016 23:40:01 GMT -5
I think the ChiSox got a phenomenal return for Eaton, and I personally think that he is a great player who is frequently undervalued. He's solidly above average with the bat and he's one of the best outfield defenders in baseball. His value may go down a bit with the Nats playing him in CF, but he's still a player that just about any organization in baseball would want.
Did the Nats give up too much for him? Maybe. Only time will tell. However, I can't stop thinking that the White Sox will be an excellent team in 2-3 years. Just their rotation, consisting of (potentially) Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, and Fulmer is enough to scare any team, even if they don't all reach their full potential.
And the craziest part is that they're probably not done dealing. They could still trade any of Quintana, Abreu, Frazier, Robertson, Cabrera, and maybe even Jones or Jennings. If they go into a full fire sale, they'll be loaded with prospects. I'd be very happy if I was a White Sox fan right now.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 7, 2016 23:44:26 GMT -5
Not really surprised by the length or amount of that contract. I am, however, surprised that the Yankees were the ones to sign him. I think they would have been better off giving Betances a chance to close. Also, sorry Melancon. Your record for highest contract for a RP was just demolished by over 20M. What does Jansen sign for now?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 0:08:54 GMT -5
Can someone explain this?
Eaton offensive bwar was 4.1, Dwar was 1.8, but his bwar was 6.2
Bradley was Owar 4.2, Dwar 1.6 and his bwar was 5.3
I see this all the time were offensive and defensive war totals don't equal the actual war total. For Eaton it's higher, for Bradley it's lower.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2016 0:25:48 GMT -5
The Yankees really didn't need Chapman this year, and hereafter he'll be on the wrong side of 30 making $18M, so he'll never get the same haul as he did last time should the Yankees try to flip him again.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 8, 2016 0:41:40 GMT -5
Can someone explain this? Eaton offensive bwar was 4.1, Dwar was 1.8, but his bwar was 6.2 Bradley was Owar 4.2, Dwar 1.6 and his bwar was 5.3 I see this all the time were offensive and defensive war totals don't equal the actual war total. For Eaton it's higher, for Bradley it's lower. I'm curious about this too. I've never understood how those value's don't add up to an equal amount. Quite a few players have offensive/defensive WAR values that never add up how you think they would. Edit: for grammar and clarity.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 8, 2016 2:31:17 GMT -5
They never add up. It's because both oWAR and dWAR are adjusted for position. Bradley was a better offensive CF than Eaton was compared to other RFs, but Eaton was a better defensive RF than Bradley was compared to CFs.
If you hover over oWAR on BR, it literally says "oWAR+dWAR does not equal WAR. Adding would count positions twice."
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 3:03:33 GMT -5
They never add up. It's because both oWAR and dWAR are adjusted for position. Bradley was a better offensive CF than Eaton was compared to other RFs, but Eaton was a better defensive RF than Bradley was compared to CFs. If you hover over oWAR on BR, it literally says "oWAR+dWAR does not equal WAR. Adding would count positions twice." Ok so adding them up would count positional adjustment twice, so i take that to mean that Owar and Dwar total should always be higher than war total, as is the case with Bradley. How than does Eaton have a higher war total than his Owar and Dwar total combined? Where does the extra WARs come from? I now understand Bradley's war numbers, but Eaton's still make no sense. Bradley's totals were 5.8 for a war of 5.3, but Eaton's totals were 5.9 for a war of 6.2.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 7:16:47 GMT -5
They never add up. It's because both oWAR and dWAR are adjusted for position. Bradley was a better offensive CF than Eaton was compared to other RFs, but Eaton was a better defensive RF than Bradley was compared to CFs. If you hover over oWAR on BR, it literally says "oWAR+dWAR does not equal WAR. Adding would count positions twice." Ok so adding them up would count positional adjustment twice, so i take that to mean that Owar and Dwar total should always be higher than war total, as is the case with Bradley. How than does Eaton have a higher war total than his Owar and Dwar total combined? Where does the extra WARs come from? I now understand Bradley's war numbers, but Eaton's still make no sense. Bradley's totals were 5.8 for a war of 5.3, but Eaton's totals were 5.9 for a war of 6.2. Eaton played mostly right field last year, so the positional adjustment is negative. When adding Owar plus Dwar you have to remove the -0.3 to avoid double docking him for the easy position.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 7:39:51 GMT -5
Eaton to the Nationals for Giolito and more. And the White Sox can still trade Quintana, Robertson, Frazier... This was the JBJ trade I thought the Sox should make (well, and up Lopez to Robles by adding Buchholz). Nice move by Chicago. The Red Sox aren't rebuilding. Why would they trade JBJ for prospects?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2016 7:58:59 GMT -5
This was the JBJ trade I thought the Sox should make (well, and up Lopez to Robles by adding Buchholz). Nice move by Chicago. The Red Sox aren't rebuilding. Why would they trade JBJ for prospects? Could have signed Cespedes, Bautista, or Beltran to play left field and move Benintendi to center.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 8:04:01 GMT -5
The Red Sox aren't rebuilding. Why would they trade JBJ for prospects? Could have signed Cespedes, Bautista, or Beltran to play left field and move Benintendi to center. They're trying to stay under the CBT. It makes zero sense to be trading JBJ for anyone who doesn't improve the major league team.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2016 9:07:18 GMT -5
I don't think a SS with an average glove, 20%+ K rate, and average power has ever gotten as much hype as Gleyber Torres. I know he had a great AFL but yeesh, people are expecting too much from him every time I see him mentioned.
I'd gladly take Torres but he is not a star. Probably more of an average-slightly above average starter and with his K% and lack of big power he'll probably face a difficult adjustment period.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2016 9:18:24 GMT -5
I don't think a SS with an average glove, 20%+ K rate, and average power has ever gotten as much hype as Gleyber Torres. I know he had a great AFL but yeesh, people are expecting too much from him every time I see him mentioned. I'd gladly take Torres but he is not a star. Probably more of an average-slightly above average starter and with his K% and lack of big power he'll probably face a difficult adjustment period. He's only 19 and he just ripped up the AFL! Like totally dominated it. Also, his K rate in 2016 was 20.1%, which isn't even close to bad in general, never mind for a 19-yo already in High A ball. Combine that with his scouting profile and the way every ball he hits is a rocket... there's a reason he's got a lot of hype. EDIT: As far as a shortstop with that profile never having gotten that much hype before, Xander Bogaerts has/had exactly that profile and he was the #2 prospect in baseball.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2016 9:22:16 GMT -5
I don't think a SS with an average glove, 20%+ K rate, and average power has ever gotten as much hype as Gleyber Torres. I know he had a great AFL but yeesh, people are expecting too much from him every time I see him mentioned. I'd gladly take Torres but he is not a star. Probably more of an average-slightly above average starter and with his K% and lack of big power he'll probably face a difficult adjustment period. He's only 19 and he just ripped up the AFL! That's weird, I haven't had that jammed down my throat at all! Lol, but an 18 game sample doesn't sway me that much when we have a few seasons worth of way less impressive data on him, and BP's FRAA isn't a fan of his defense either. It's actually kind of amusing to see the Yankees fanbase get so hot and bothered over a kid who would still be our third best prospect even after the pillaging our farm has taken (I doubt we'd give up Groome for him).
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2016 9:26:26 GMT -5
I'm going to say something sort of mean right now. The only reason you think Gleyber Torres isn't good is tribalism, period. We've been conditioned for years to hate everything Yankees, so you're talking yourself into a player in the other tribe being bad. Gleyber Torres is an extraordinarily talented ballplayer and I really hate that the Yankees scheme to buy low and sell high on Chapman netted them such a talent.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2016 9:29:55 GMT -5
I'm going to say something sort of mean right now. The only reason you think Gleyber Torres isn't good is tribalism, period. We've been conditioned for years to hate everything Yankees, so you're talking yourself into a player in the other tribe being bad. Gleyber Torres is an extraordinarily talented ballplayer and I really hate that the Yankees scheme to buy low and sell high on Chapman netted them such a talent. He and Bogaerts are not the same. Bogaerts was touted for have 60 or 70 power, which nobody is claiming for Torres. Bogaerts had way more physical projection. I never said he was bad either, I just said he won't be a star like people are alluding to. I made that pretty clear. And I would bet on that. Still an Eddy Rodriguez type of steal for NYY, don't get me wrong.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 8, 2016 9:55:02 GMT -5
The Yankees really didn't need Chapman this year, and hereafter he'll be on the wrong side of 30 making $18M, so he'll never get the same haul as he did last time should the Yankees try to flip him again. This was my thought as well. IMO the NYY are a few years away from being serious contenders. At least Dellin won't have to pitch 3 innings every night & maybe his arm won't fall off in August.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 8, 2016 11:14:25 GMT -5
You're underrating Adam Eaton. He's one of the better players in baseball and has been for a few years. Oh I like Eaton, but the price still seems high, prospect wise. Given ERod's profile and control I would think he'd bring a haul in this market. Heck, if I could get someone like Cody Bellinger in a package for him I'd seriously consider it. And don't get me wrong, I love Eduardo Rodriguez and would rather deal Pomeranz, but either way, there's gold the them thar hills.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 8, 2016 11:17:33 GMT -5
I would have been surprised by a JBJ trade, too. But, if they had gotten a good return of major league ready depth and signed someone like Dexter Fowler, I would have been okay with it.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2016 11:44:30 GMT -5
The speed with which all the obnoxious know-nothings on Twitter seem to have given up on Giolito means he's basically a guaranteed ace.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 8, 2016 11:51:14 GMT -5
Again, why should a team trying to stay under the cap, trade off a controlled asset? Fowler is 30 years old and has one season where he's been worth more than 3 wins. He's going to sign for multiple years at $15-$20 million per. That just makes.. no... sense.... at all. The idea of trading away very good assets and opting for those that are worth less but will cost 10 times more is just crazy.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 8, 2016 12:09:22 GMT -5
The speed with which all the obnoxious know-nothings on Twitter seem to have given up on Giolito means he's basically a guaranteed ace. Keith Law on this very issue - excerpt: The Nationals tried to change his delivery earlier in the season, because sometimes teams just do dumb things. That affected Giolito’s mechanics and command even later into the season. While his velocity was fine -- he hit 96 mph several times, and his median velocity was right around 94 -- he didn’t get ahead in enough counts to get to his curveball and generated only a 6 percent swing-and-miss rate, way below what his stuff should generate. Now that he’s in a new organization, one with a great track record of developing pitchers, Giolito should be able to reset his mechanics and get back to the results he had before 2016.insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6031
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2016 12:44:00 GMT -5
Current White Sox pitching prospects: -Lucas Giolito -Reynaldo Lopez -Michael Kopech -Carson Fulmer -Zach Burdi -Dane Dunning -Spencer Adams -Alec Hansen -Jordan Stephens
I've been bearish on Carson Fulmer, but if he's your fourth or fifth best pitching prospect then you're in good shape.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 8, 2016 13:07:33 GMT -5
The speed with which all the obnoxious know-nothings on Twitter seem to have given up on Giolito means he's basically a guaranteed ace. Also, so much of the hate/pessimism seems to be based on a very small and irregular MLB sample. By irregular I mean that only 4 of his 6 appearances were starts, and the appearances were spread out by varying intervals (6/28, 7/07, 7/24, 8/28, 9/07, 9/28). It was exactly a fair shot in the rotation. You would think he had an awful year altogether, but he had K-rates of 23.0% (FIP: 3.30) and 26.9% (FIP: 2.96) in AA and AAA respectively. I think theres a solid chance the White Sox just "bought low."
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Post by thursty on Dec 8, 2016 13:08:07 GMT -5
You're underrating Adam Eaton. He's one of the better players in baseball and has been for a few years. No he's not; he's a hundred-teensy+ hitter, who is an excellent baserunner, whose last 3 fWAR are 3.1, 3.7, 6. The big jump last year is all due to defense, but crucially it's RF defense; the White Sox had to move him out of CF because he was bad there. I'd say that's the flaw in the Nationals' thinking: they're going to put him back in CF. Now, you could make a case that he's one of the better values in baseball - because of his insane contract, 5/$38.5. He's a bargain, but far from an elite player Oh and Steamer's 2017 projection is 2.1 WAR - I'm not sure if that's been adjusted to account for his move to CF or not
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