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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by dnfl333 on May 22, 2016 14:02:46 GMT -5
From a scouting standpoint, Buchholz seems to be so reliant on having absolute command of his pitches. He is such a nibbler and when he's on, he's getting lots of weak contact or swings and misses on pitches that are right on the edges or just outside the strike zone. When he's not on, those pitches are either not being swung at, leading to hitter's counts and walks, or they're getting too much of the plate and getting nailed. I guess you could say the same thing about every pitcher, but it seems like he's more reliant on it than others. Time to cut bait with this pitcher. Find a trade partner for relief help with Smith down..
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2016 14:04:39 GMT -5
From a scouting standpoint, Buchholz seems to be so reliant on having absolute command of his pitches. He is such a nibbler and when he's on, he's getting lots of weak contact or swings and misses on pitches that are right on the edges or just outside the strike zone. When he's not on, those pitches are either not being swung at, leading to hitter's counts and walks, or they're getting too much of the plate and getting nailed. I guess you could say the same thing about every pitcher, but it seems like he's more reliant on it than others. Time to cut bait with this pitcher. Find a trade partner for relief help with Smith down.. Can't get enough of O'Sullivan, huh?
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Post by deepjohn on May 22, 2016 14:49:42 GMT -5
... There's always been a continual interplay, in my work, between analytics, and hypotheses based on as deep an understanding of the game of baseball (with an emphasis on player psychology) as I can achieve. .. Your emphasis on player psychology is what I've always liked about your work, which may be what has surprised me so many times over the years. I'd like to look more at in-game splits as you do, rather than treating the game as a data point. I've been looking into setting up a data scraper with R. Are there filters you wish you had, with an emphasis on player psychology?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2016 14:54:37 GMT -5
... There's always been a continual interplay, in my work, between analytics, and hypotheses based on as deep an understanding of the game of baseball (with an emphasis on player psychology) as I can achieve. .. Your emphasis on player psychology is what I've always liked about your work, which may be what has surprised me so many times over the years. I'd like to look more at in-game splits as you do, rather than treating the game as a data point. I've been looking into setting up a data scraper with R. Are there filters you wish you had, with an emphasis on player psychology? What I really wish I had ... no, scratch that! Didn't I announce at the start of the season that I would be barely posting here, and not doing any analysis? I seriously have to start acting on that plan. The team has been too distractingly good.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 23, 2016 8:56:57 GMT -5
Clay Buccholz is not a good pitcher. He's as unreliable as they come. IF, the Sox get lucky and he runs off a hot streak leading up to the trade deadline, they should take advantage of the scarce pitching market and trade him. Trade him for prospects, I don't care. You should be able to get at least one blue chip guy back for him in that scenario. It will never happen but it should happen. Even if his hit steak comes it's going to disappear before the end of the season and the playoffs. But his "potential" and "ability" is so good that he will get a post season rotation spot should we be there.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 23, 2016 9:34:55 GMT -5
Clay Buccholz is not a good pitcher. He's as unreliable as they come. IF, the Sox get lucky and he runs off a hot streak leading up to the trade deadline, they should take advantage of the scarce pitching market and trade him. Trade him for prospects, I don't care. You should be able to get at least one blue chip guy back for him in that scenario. It will never happen but it should happen. Even if his hit steak comes it's going to disappear before the end of the season and the playoffs. But his "potential" and "ability" is so good that he will get a post season rotation spot should we be there. I don't always understand this. If he runs off half a dozen good starts before the deadline, that's the type of pitcher WE would want. I heard this last year some, if JBJ gets hot, we should trade him for some value. Well, he's hot, should we trade him? I know Clay could revert back to his norm, but if he's figured something out & he's got a cheap option, keep him. We're not exactly deep in SP depth.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2016 10:26:24 GMT -5
Perhaps biased, but would suggest that people check out Chaz's report on Rodriguez's last start. I don't think we can assume he's going to be back that soon. The stuff didn't look like he was ready to come back - the FB and CH were both a step back from where he was last year, although he was throwing strikes and Chaz liked his new cutter. If I'm the Red Sox, I'm getting Rodriguez all the way back to where he should be before putting him into the MLB rotation. It just makes the most sense long-term and they've bought themselves time with a strong start.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 23, 2016 11:34:29 GMT -5
How can an athlete of his (E-Rod) caliber have a "sore" knee for 2 months? Does he need a quick scope to clean out something (torn cartilage, ect)? Is it arthritic? I mean he stepped in a hole or something like that. He wasn't in a car wreck. Now he's throwing in a knee brace.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 23, 2016 11:49:55 GMT -5
How can an athlete of his (E-Rod) caliber have a "sore" knee for 2 months? Does he need a quick scope to clean out something (torn cartilage, ect)? Is it arthritic? I mean he stepped in a hole or something like that. He wasn't in a car wreck. Now he's throwing in a knee brace. The injury was a tendon that came out of it's groove. The prior injury before we got him was unrelated, it was his other leg. I'm guessing that being an athlete actually doesn't help in this case. I doubt if it's sore when he just walks. The decline in his stuff is because he needs to rebuild his leg strength, that takes time and obviously he hasn't had enough time yet. Being an athlete doesn't necessarily mean he has groovy tendons.
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Post by jmei on May 23, 2016 14:21:17 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 23, 2016 15:23:05 GMT -5
I was coming to highlight that story. Thanks for posting.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 24, 2016 9:12:13 GMT -5
Clay Buccholz is not a good pitcher. He's as unreliable as they come. IF, the Sox get lucky and he runs off a hot streak leading up to the trade deadline, they should take advantage of the scarce pitching market and trade him. Trade him for prospects, I don't care. You should be able to get at least one blue chip guy back for him in that scenario. It will never happen but it should happen. Even if his hit steak comes it's going to disappear before the end of the season and the playoffs. But his "potential" and "ability" is so good that he will get a post season rotation spot should we be there. I don't always understand this. If he runs off half a dozen good starts before the deadline, that's the type of pitcher WE would want. I heard this last year some, if JBJ gets hot, we should trade him for some value. Well, he's hot, should we trade him? I know Clay could revert back to his norm, but if he's figured something out & he's got a cheap option, keep him. We're not exactly deep in SP depth. You can't really compare an unproven developing prospect to a guy like Buccholz. Yes we want Clay or any guy to get hot. It helps you win games. Why I trade Buccholz is because we know it's gonna to come to a crashing end. I'd parlay that hot streak into assets. The guy is what he is. I think if you can get a blue chip prospect for him, you cash that in.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 24, 2016 9:15:22 GMT -5
It also seems as if ERod is having trouble trusting the knee which is affecting his mechanics and his velocity. If his knee is still sore and having issues, I don't know why he's even on the mound. I can't see how constant impact on it will allow it to heal. Have physical therapy, rest it until it's 100% then come back. I don't care when that is.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 26, 2016 19:55:29 GMT -5
Geez, my kid got into this thread, too. Sorry. Well this is a prospect site, so one day, when my kid learns to type something other than his name, he will be a major league contributor to the site. For now he's in the minors honing his craft
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2016 19:56:52 GMT -5
someone needs to put a password on their screensaver
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Post by larrycook on May 26, 2016 21:03:01 GMT -5
Jimmy Nelson looks like a better and better trade target after watching Buchholz throw tonight.
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Post by mandelbro on May 26, 2016 21:29:43 GMT -5
As usual, these "too many options" problems solve themselves...
@jcmccaffrey Farrell said he Willis and Dombrowski will discuss Buchholz's spot in rotation. No decision made yet.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 26, 2016 22:40:01 GMT -5
Is elias a possibility?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 27, 2016 0:23:44 GMT -5
As depth I'd think so, but until he throws more than one great game in a row, I'd take a wait and see attitude. Meanwhile, we just have to hope that E-Rod's velocity increases as the season goes on. He should be quite fresh - you worry about his innings, but that shouldn't be an issue this season. And so that leaves you with Price/Porcello/Wright/E-Rod/Kelly as your rotation and Buchholz the first starting option if there's an injury. Then you get to Elias, O'Sullivan, and Owens as the depth options, which isn't a pretty picture.
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Post by telson13 on May 27, 2016 1:15:21 GMT -5
As depth I'd think so, but until he throws more than one great game in a row, I'd take a wait and see attitude. Meanwhile, we just have to hope that E-Rod's velocity increases as the season goes on. He should be quite fresh - you worry about his innings, but that shouldn't be an issue this season. And so that leaves you with Price/Porcello/Wright/E-Rod/Kelly as your rotation and Buchholz the first starting option if there's an injury. Then you get to Elias, O'Sullivan, and Owens as the depth options, which isn't a pretty picture. He went 7, with 3h and 8K his last time out, after the 13K game. But yeah, he probably needs a couple more nice starts before he stakes a claim. As for concerns about Rodriguez, the guy had a partial dislocation of his patella. That's a significant injury, I'm not surprised it still hurts. And the velo loss is almost assuredly the loss of leg strength coupled with being tentative about re-injuring it. My guess is that he doesn't return to form (velocity-wise) until 6 months post-injury.
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Post by okin15 on May 27, 2016 8:46:05 GMT -5
Despite the drech that Buch has been throwing, does anyone else feel that E-Rod could use one more rehab start before being brought up? I'm all for pulling Buchholz (even to the point I'd be OK with another O'Sullivan start), but I don't want to rush Rodriguez if he's not really ready to go. He should be on his own time-table.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 27, 2016 8:54:07 GMT -5
Something is wrong with Buchholz and Owens. They need to join Johnson in Ft Myers. Buch will not be any better in the bullpen. Like last year when we DL'd Porcello after he was getting hit as hard as Buch is getting hit now. Sometimes I think they just need to re-boot.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 27, 2016 10:06:58 GMT -5
I trust Farrell to do the right thing with Buch and either DL him or give him some BP time. In the later case, someone would have to be optioned, not a good situation since no one in the BP deserves a demotion, even if temporary. Another possibility is a 15 day for Hannigan.
His next spot in the rotation would be on Tuesday in Baltimore. E-Rod pitched last Tuesday and Elias on Wednesday. If E-Rod were activated, he's be starting with a week's rest. So, maybe he needs another MiL assignment before rejoining his mates.
Elias could go with five days rest. Tough calls.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on May 27, 2016 10:13:14 GMT -5
Despite the drech that Buch has been throwing, does anyone else feel that E-Rod could use one more rehab start before being brought up? I'm all for pulling Buchholz (even to the point I'd be OK with another O'Sullivan start), but I don't want to rush Rodriguez if he's not really ready to go. He should be on his own time-table. I agree with this. I like Buchholz a lot but he's clearly the worst pitcher of staff right now and even a deeper look into the numbers shows that but Rodriguez is a big part of this organization present and future and I would like them to give him another start or 2 in Pawtucket to improve his stuff and come back in the best position possible to succeed. Give Clay or Sully or Elias the next start and let Eduardo build the best foundation possible.
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2016 11:18:49 GMT -5
We're within two weeks of the usual pattern of Buchholz hitting the DL for what will reportedly be 3-4 weeks with a strange injury, it taking eight weeks for him to come back for reasons that seem vague, everyone questioning his toughness, and them him coming back to pitch great for 10 weeks and everyone talking about how he'd be an ace if he puts it together for a full season (followed by an infuriating discussion of what an "ace" is - let's not do that part again this year, okay everyone? Please?).
The overall value ends up there, but he is the most inconsistent - and by extension, frustrating - pitcher that I can recall. Not just with the Red Sox, but basically in my 30-year baseball-watching life. I'm trying to remember another pitcher who had so many 8-10 week stretches in his career of both excellence and terribleness and I can't. Maybe Scott Erickson? Javier Vazquez? I dunno. He drives me crazy. He's the reason I could never be a GM because I'd have released him at least six times by now.
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