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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 15, 2016 12:43:00 GMT -5
Maureen Mullen @maureenamullen 2h2 hours ago Eduardo Rodriguez will make his next start Thursday with Pawtucket.
Maureen Mullen @maureenamullen 2h2 hours ago Farrell said Buchholz will stay in the rotation.
Tim Britton @timbritton 2h2 hours ago Farrell on Rodriguez: "We'd still like to see an uptick in performance in general.... He might still be a little reserved."
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 15, 2016 16:35:51 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on May 17, 2016 10:36:16 GMT -5
With the rain-out, they will need a starter Saturday (otherwise they coulda shortened the rotation for one trip). Porcello and one of the double-header starters are scheduled to get TWO extra day's rest between starts. I almost wonder if they take this opportunity to give Porcello or Price a breather. Of course they'll have that option again when Eduardo is ready to return (I assume his start this week will be his last rehab start. I think his clock is up.) They could alternatively give say, Porcello an extra 3-4 days, (one extra bullpen session) and skip Buchholz this time through to try to get him straightened out. But really, you want more info/data on Buch, not less I'd think. Any/all of these calculations would be different if ERod weren't nearing a return.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2016 15:25:29 GMT -5
With the rain-out, they will need a starter Saturday (otherwise they coulda shortened the rotation for one trip). Porcello and one of the double-header starters are scheduled to get TWO extra day's rest between starts. I almost wonder if they take this opportunity to give Porcello or Price a breather. Of course they'll have that option again when Eduardo is ready to return (I assume his start this week will be his last rehab start. I think his clock is up.) They could alternatively give say, Porcello an extra 3-4 days, (one extra bullpen session) and skip Buchholz this time through to try to get him straightened out. But really, you want more info/data on Buch, not less I'd think. Any/all of these calculations would be different if ERod weren't nearing a return. Here's the way I see it, 4 days rest unless noted: Thu 5/19 off, E-Rod Pawtucket Fri 5/20 Buchholz 5 Sat 5/21 Kelly (Barnes finally optioned) Sun 5/22 Porcello Mon off; so is Pawtucket, allowing them to delay E-Rod a day Tue 5/24 Wright or Price 5 Wed 5/25 Price or Wright 6; probably E-Rod Pawtucket (he can be optioned once his rehab is up) Thu 5/26 Buchholz 5, Kelly 4, or E-Rod 6 Fri 5/27 Kelly 5 or Buchholz 6 Sat 5/28 Porcello 5 You can see that on Thursday and Friday they can go Buchholz and Kelley, which seems likeliest, but they could also flip-flop them if they expect that E-Rod will soon take Kelly's place in the rotation rather than Buchholz; or they can insert E-Rod on 6 days rest Thursday and bump either Buchholz or Kelly out of the rotation. It's good that Buchholz and Kelly are back-to-back. E-Rod is a little out of synch with them right now and will have to take 1 or 2 extra days of rest when he replaces whoever loses that competition. It's not a bad idea to keep him pitching the day before both of them, giving you protection against him being rained out.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 17, 2016 15:50:39 GMT -5
John Farrell mentioned earlier on the Dale & Holley show that ERod has been experiencing discomfort in his knee and they'll skip his next start in Pawtucket. He'll still throw long toss, but this seems like it'll slow his ascent to Boston, Maybe closer to the all-star break. Hard to say how much his knee is bothering him.
He mentioned they wanted to be cautious and wanted to prevent his from overthrowing with his arm only to get the additional velocity everyone's been looking for.
If Kelly does ok, they can be extra cautious and really let him round into form, assuming he can and there's nothing more serious going with that knee. But I'd certainly not plan on ERod being part of the equation for at least another 3-4 weeks, at this point.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 15:59:34 GMT -5
John Farrell mentioned earlier on the Dale & Holley show that ERod has been experiencing discomfort in his knee and they'll skip his next start in Pawtucket. He'll still throw long toss, but this seems like it'll slow his ascent to Boston, Maybe closer to the all-star break. Hard to say how much his knee is bothering him. He mentioned they wanted to be cautious and wanted to prevent his from overthrowing with his arm only to get the additional velocity everyone's been looking for. If Kelly does ok, they can be extra cautious and really let him round into form, assuming he can and there's nothing more serious going with that knee. But I'd certainly not plan on ERod being part of the equation for at least another 3-4 weeks, at this point. Yes, this. IIRC he had knee problems the year he got traded to us which led to a mediocre first half with the Orioles AA affiliate and sunk his trade value. The FO are taking the cautious and right path with him IMO.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2016 16:08:13 GMT -5
John Farrell mentioned earlier on the Dale & Holley show that ERod has been experiencing discomfort in his knee and they'll skip his next start in Pawtucket. He'll still throw long toss, but this seems like it'll slow his ascent to Boston, Maybe closer to the all-star break. Hard to say how much his knee is bothering him. He mentioned they wanted to be cautious and wanted to prevent his from overthrowing with his arm only to get the additional velocity everyone's been looking for. If Kelly does ok, they can be extra cautious and really let him round into form, assuming he can and there's nothing more serious going with that knee. But I'd certainly not plan on ERod being part of the equation for at least another 3-4 weeks, at this point. Good to know, and that clarifies things a lot. Fri 5/20 Buchholz 5 Sat 5/21 Kelly (Barnes finally optioned) Sun 5/22 Porcello Mon off Tue 5/24 Wright or Price 5 Wed 5/25 Price or Wright 6. E-Rod returns this night or the next at the earliest Thu 5/26 Buchholz 5 Fri 5/27 Kelly 5 Sat 5/28 Porcello 5 Sun 5/29 Wright or Price 4 You would have given Clay two more starts to start pitching like himself even without the E-Rod situation, but this probably gives him an even longer leash.
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Post by mgoetze on May 17, 2016 16:35:37 GMT -5
But I'd certainly not plan on ERod being part of the equation for at least another 3-4 weeks, at this point. Honestly, not a bad thing for the Sox, assuming E-Rod does make a full return to form. The problem is not necessarily that they have 6 starters who absolutely deserve to be in the rotation... the problem is they likely have 5 but we don't know who the 5 are.
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Post by mattpicard on May 17, 2016 17:33:39 GMT -5
Michael Silverman @mikesilvermanbb 4m4 minutes ago E-Rod has felt knee soreness in his rehab starts. Farrell expects/hopes (can't really say if) the lefty will pitch this season.
John Tomase @jtomase now John Farrell says Eduardo Rodriguez will have his rehab halted after feeling discomfort in his right knee. Will throw bullpen Friday.
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Post by dnfl333 on May 17, 2016 18:22:52 GMT -5
John Farrell mentioned earlier on the Dale & Holley show that ERod has been experiencing discomfort in his knee and they'll skip his next start in Pawtucket. He'll still throw long toss, but this seems like it'll slow his ascent to Boston, Maybe closer to the all-star break. Hard to say how much his knee is bothering him. He mentioned they wanted to be cautious and wanted to prevent his from overthrowing with his arm only to get the additional velocity everyone's been looking for. If Kelly does ok, they can be extra cautious and really let him round into form, assuming he can and there's nothing more serious going with that knee. But I'd certainly not plan on ERod being part of the equation for at least another 3-4 weeks, at this point. Yes, this. IIRC he had knee problems the year he got traded to us which led to a mediocre first half with the Orioles AA affiliate and sunk his trade value. The FO are taking the cautious and right path with him IMO. So we learn a year later the player is damaged goods? So much for fleecing the O's
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Post by mgoetze on May 17, 2016 18:34:16 GMT -5
So we learn a year later the player is damaged goods? So much for fleecing the O's Eh... if E-Rod never throws another pitch that was still a good trade for us. He provided 1.7 WAR for us last year and we didn't have to pay Miller's salary for half a year. Anything that E-Rod provides us beyond that is just gravy. ... and that could potentially be a lot of gravy.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2016 18:41:19 GMT -5
Yes, this. IIRC he had knee problems the year he got traded to us which led to a mediocre first half with the Orioles AA affiliate and sunk his trade value. The FO are taking the cautious and right path with him IMO. So we learn a year later the player is damaged goods? So much for fleecing the O's Is that sarcasm my friend? I don't think it's the same type of injury from what I've read. I only mentionned his former injury to emphasize the fact it affect his stuff/results substantialy. Link
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Post by scottysmalls on May 17, 2016 18:48:25 GMT -5
Also obviously if he has to have his knee repaired that's obviously not good, but definitely does't mean his career with the Red Sox is over, and I would say it's a stretch to think that he definitely has to get it repaired at all at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 17, 2016 19:12:52 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 21, 2016 11:24:10 GMT -5
I really thought this guy was the best rotation depth we have when he fixes his sudden control problems. I hope he'll get better and come back Greinke style.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 21, 2016 12:57:38 GMT -5
I remember Johnson getting hit in the face by a line drive at Futures at Fenway. I was sitting between home and the 1st base dugout a few rows from the field and the sound was sickening. Be well Brian.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 21, 2016 23:50:44 GMT -5
I ran some Buchholz splits in his last game thread. They were so strange that I decided to break them down further. They got much stranger.
This is Buchholz's slash line allowed the first time through the order:
.469 / .553 / .625 (38 PA), bases empty .563 / .563 / .938 (16 PA), runner on 1B only .087 / .222 / .261 (27 PA), RISP
And subsequently:
.189 / .294 / .284 (85 PA), bases empty .094 / .171 / .219 (35 PA), runner on 1B only .429 / .458 / 1.000 (24 PA), RISP
It doesn't appear to be a stretch mechanics issue, because his results with a runner on 1B match the results with the bases empty. In fact, let's lump those together:
.500 / .556 / .729 (54 PA), 1st time through, non-RISP .087 / .222 / .261 (27 PA), 1st time through, RISP
.160 / .258 / .264 (120 PA), subsequently, non-RISP .429 / .458 / 1.000 (24 PA), subsequently, RISP
He's been absolutely dominant exactly as we know he has usually been in his career, in a well-defined majority of his BFP. You have to take those 120 PA as an indication that he still has the talent. (Unless you're jmei.) We've seen him do it: get into cruise control, then get into a bit of trouble, and then make one terrible pitch. Every time.
We know that pitchers will change their pitch mix and their approach with RISP. His overall numbers the first time through are so terrible that it's clear he has very little that's working for him. That he's been so good with RISP is almost certainly in part a SSS fluke, but the split is so large that it has to have some real component (again, insert jemei's disagreement here, to save him the work).
What you'd do if you were getting killed early and you desperately needed outs is simplify things and just go with whatever one or two things seem to be working best, trading away any element of surprise and gambling you can make up for it with sheer execution. And going with the same one or two pitch / location combinations that seem to be working may actually improve your command of them further, through repetition.
After the first time through, he gets his mechanics down and is himself, yet in an even smaller sample with RISP he's been unimaginably bad. He should have confidence, and it appears as if the terrible results with RISP are the failure to execute pitches he and the catcher thinks he'll be able to. Alas, BrooksBaseball has no filters for base situation. But it wouldn't shock me to learn that once he's rolling, that they try riskier stuff with RISP and it blows up in their faces.
So there is a coherent explanation for those splits, which, again, strike me as way too large to be entirely random.
When he's struggling early and gets into trouble, he gambles on simplification and wins. After all, it's the first time hitters have seen him, so there's no reason not to just to go after guys with the one or two pitch / location combinations that are working at all.
When he's dominating later and gets into trouble, he gambles on diversification and loses. Hitters have faced him already, so he has less confidence in going to his bread and butter because he's sure hitters will be sitting on it. So they try something unexpected that usually works when he's dominating, like backdooring the two-seamer outside to a RHB, misses over the plate, and gets killed.
He has to get his mechanics down to start the game (and when he can't quite, compensate by trying to figure out ASAP what seems to be working best), and he either has to tweak his RISP pitch mix later, or get his head together in those situations, because there's no reason to be missing so consistently when he tries the fancy pitch / location combinations.
But the good news is that there's pretty good evidence that his stuff is as good as always, which matches what we've seen with our eyes. And this is about as late in the season as his bad starts have lasted.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2016 10:33:28 GMT -5
From a scouting standpoint, Buchholz seems to be so reliant on having absolute command of his pitches. He is such a nibbler and when he's on, he's getting lots of weak contact or swings and misses on pitches that are right on the edges or just outside the strike zone. When he's not on, those pitches are either not being swung at, leading to hitter's counts and walks, or they're getting too much of the plate and getting nailed. I guess you could say the same thing about every pitcher, but it seems like he's more reliant on it than others.
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Post by rafael on May 22, 2016 10:34:42 GMT -5
I ran some Buchholz splits in his last game thread. They were so strange that I decided to break them down further. They got much stranger. This is Buchholz's slash line allowed the first time through the order: .469 / .553 / .625 (38 PA), bases empty .563 / .563 / .938 (16 PA), runner on 1B only .087 / .222 / .261 (27 PA), RISP And subsequently: .189 / .294 / .284 (85 PA), bases empty .094 / .171 / .219 (35 PA), runner on 1B only .429 / .458 / 1.000 (24 PA), RISP It doesn't appear to be a stretch mechanics issue, because his results with a runner on 1B match the results with the bases empty. In fact, let's lump those together: .500 / .556 / .729 (54 PA), 1st time through, non-RISP .087 / .222 / .261 (27 PA), 1st time through, RISP .160 / .258 / .264 (120 PA), subsequently, non-RISP .429 / .458 / 1.000 (24 PA), subsequently, RISP He's been absolutely dominant exactly as we know he has usually been in his career, in a well-defined majority of his BFP. You have to take those 120 PA as an indication that he still has the talent. (Unless you're jmei.) We've seen him do it: get into cruise control, then get into a bit of trouble, and then make one terrible pitch. Every time. We know that pitchers will change their pitch mix and their approach with RISP. His overall numbers the first time through are so terrible that it's clear he has very little that's working for him. That he's been so good with RISP is almost certainly in part a SSS fluke, but the split is so large that it has to have some real component (again, insert jemei's disagreement here, to save him the work). What you'd do if you were getting killed early and you desperately needed outs is simplify things and just go with whatever one or two things seem to be working best, trading away any element of surprise and gambling you can make up for it with sheer execution. And going with the same one or two pitch / location combinations that seem to be working may actually improve your command of them further, through repetition. After the first time through, he gets his mechanics down and is himself, yet in an even smaller sample with RISP he's been unimaginably bad. He should have confidence, and it appears as if the terrible results with RISP are the failure to execute pitches he and the catcher thinks he'll be able to. Alas, BrooksBaseball has no filters for base situation. But it wouldn't shock me to learn that once he's rolling, that they try riskier stuff with RISP and it blows up in their faces. So there is a coherent explanation for those splits, which, again, strike me as way too large to be entirely random. When he's struggling early and gets into trouble, he gambles on simplification and wins. After all, it's the first time hitters have seen him, so there's no reason not to just to go after guys with the one or two pitch / location combinations that are working at all. When he's dominating later and gets into trouble, he gambles on diversification and loses. Hitters have faced him already, so he has less confidence in going to his bread and butter because he's sure hitters will be sitting on it. So they try something unexpected that usually works when he's dominating, like backdooring the two-seamer outside to a RHB, misses over the plate, and gets killed. He has to get his mechanics down to start the game (and when he can't quite, compensate by trying to figure out ASAP what seems to be working best), and he either has to tweak his RISP pitch mix later, or get his head together in those situations, because there's no reason to be missing so consistently when he tries the fancy pitch / location combinations. But the good news is that there's pretty good evidence that his stuff is as good as always, which matches what we've seen with our eyes. And this is about as late in the season as his bad starts have lasted. I like your theory and it seems plausible, but those stats look a lot like SSS noise.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2016 10:41:54 GMT -5
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Post by threeifbaerga on May 22, 2016 10:48:31 GMT -5
One thing I saw on twitter and haven't seen mentioned here is that apparently Eduardo has agreed to try wearing a knee brace in order to protect himself. If he is comfortable and confident wearing it there's no reason he couldn't be back in short order.
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Post by jmei on May 22, 2016 10:49:06 GMT -5
While I also object to your frequent application of small sample results as true-talent skill, I probably have more of a problem with the narratives that you build to explain the trends. I'd be fine if you framed those narratives as your off-the-cuff theories, but you just about always phrase it more strongly than that. For instance, by using "we" ("we know that..." "we can see that...") when you should really be saying "I", or slipping in an unproven theory as truth ("After the first time through, he gets his mechanics down and is himself"-- you're assuming the conclusion) or just the standard "it's clear that..."-type rhetorical flourishes.
Plus, for all of your comfort with numbers, those narratives are almost always non-analytical. For instance, in the above, you could easily play with Brooks Baseball and figure out if his pitch mix or location has changed based on runners on base and number of times through the order (they do have filters by base situations under the "Pitch Usage" tab). I took a quick look and couldn't see anything that clearly stood out to me other than more cutters with RISP versus righties, which, maybe that explains it, but it certainly doesn't seem like the only possible coherent explanation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2016 12:21:39 GMT -5
One thing I saw on twitter and haven't seen mentioned here is that apparently Eduardo has agreed to try wearing a knee brace in order to protect himself. If he is comfortable and confident wearing it there's no reason he couldn't be back in short order. Good find, I missed that. Here's the story: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/05/eduardo_rodriguez_boston_red_s_2.htmlI also saw where they were happy with the pen session today following yesterday's pen session.
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Post by tonyc on May 22, 2016 12:41:20 GMT -5
In the current snapshot, yesterday was the most positive day of the season for the rotation, perhaps more so than the David Price mechanical correction between the news on Eduardo's session/brace and Joe Kelly's game. I've always been one of the few who've liked Kelly, but he needed to exploit his great stuff. Last year he learned to sequence. Now, via the WEEI story, he's strengthened the right arm and is getting more spin- I noticed more misses on his fastball than I've ever seen. Why wasn't he getting them before? Certainly the velocity was there, and Eric has charted excellent movement as well. The lack of good sequencing would be most likely, followed possibly by the lack of plane given his short stature for a starter. Perhaps lastly just a theory, a lack of deception. Although not a direct correlation, it seems that deception occurs more easily with tall pitchers, think Owens, the injured Juan Pena, or further back Jim Kern. A shorter one requires some unusual delivery like Juan Marichal or Luis Tiant.
This rotation snapshot will of course be vulnerable to consistency and injury issues in the long season, but I'm hopeful we'll get through henceforth without losing significant prospects- great day!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2016 13:36:31 GMT -5
While I also object to your frequent application of small sample results as true-talent skill, I probably have more of a problem with the narratives that you build to explain the trends. I'd be fine if you framed those narratives as your off-the-cuff theories, but you just about always phrase it more strongly than that. For instance, by using "we" ("we know that..." "we can see that...") when you should really be saying "I", or slipping in an unproven theory as truth ("After the first time through, he gets his mechanics down and is himself"-- you're assuming the conclusion) or just the standard "it's clear that..."-type rhetorical flourishes. Plus, for all of your comfort with numbers, those narratives are almost always non-analytical. For instance, in the above, you could easily play with Brooks Baseball and figure out if his pitch mix or location has changed based on runners on base and number of times through the order (they do have filters by base situations under the "Pitch Usage" tab). I took a quick look and couldn't see anything that clearly stood out to me other than more cutters with RISP versus righties, which, maybe that explains it, but it certainly doesn't seem like the only possible coherent explanation. I try to be careful about only using phrases like "we know" for stuff that's incontrovertible. Do you actually claim that all pitchers use the same pitch mix with RISP as without? Actually, since hitters perform differently over the course of their careers with runners on than with the bases empty, and, in fact, each of the 24 base-out situations has its own ridiculously significant results profile, we already do know this for a fact. The entire point of my narratives is that they aren't analytical, because I've never regarded myself as just an analyst. There's always been a continual interplay, in my work, between analytics, and hypotheses based on as deep an understanding of the game of baseball (with an emphasis on player psychology) as I can achieve. Among my peers, I would rank myself much higher in terms of understanding baseball than for analytics. Almost everyone doing analysis on line can out-number-crunch me. My strength is in asking questions that others don't think to ask. And re those narratives, you're reading them too literally. I assume -- correctly, in your case! -- that my readers are smart enough to tell the difference between a mere explanatory conjecture and a conclusion supported by evidence. It's actually pretty obvious. I am certainly not trying to pass anything in that narrative off as any kind of truth. I don't believe it's a truth. It's a set of ideas. I launch into these narratives without explicitly saying "This is just an idea" because it's tiresome to say that every time, and, as noted, it's not necessary. When I think the evidence pushes a narrative conjecture in the direction of truth, I damn well let people know! And that usually comes later. Oh, and I never noticed the pitch usage tab filters before. Thanks for the heads-up, and I'll look to see what the data says.
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