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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 12, 2016 8:37:14 GMT -5
Yeah, there's never been a 23 year old with fb command issues who ever amounted to a hill of beans. We should just cut bait now.
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Post by deepjohn on May 12, 2016 8:48:42 GMT -5
From Fullcount: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/05/11/john-farrell-stressing-competition-in-starting-rotation-with-returns-of-joe-kelly-eduardo-rodriguez-nearing/#more-103345With that being said, someone will be left out. Farrell stressed there will be competition between the players already in the rotation, and the one’s coming back to earn spots in the five-man rotation.“I think if there is one theme through the first 33 games, it’s been competition,” he said. “Internal competition is a really healthy thing and we’re obviously encouraging it.”
“It hasn’t been outlined as, ‘Hey, this is a make or break start,'” Farrell said. “We’ve got areas that have obvious room for improvement and we’re working every day to achieve that.”Huh. Certainly seems like the Sox don't have the same equanimity about Buchholz as many on this board seem to have. Clearly there is no "obvious" room to improve upon the performance of Porcello or Wright, and despite the words, Price is NOT in competition with anyone, he has a spot hell or high water. This just a nicer way of saying that Buchholz, Kelly, and Rodriquez are in competition for two spots in the rotation. If they were sure that Buchholz was going to turn golden at any moment, they probably would have simply said that Kelly and Rodriquez were in competition for the last rotation spot and left it at that. The only other thing that comes to mind is that this is some sort of blatant, ham-handed motivational ploy to light a fire under Buchholz. At any rate, a pretty amazing difference from the last, oh 12 or so years of front office philosophy (or at least rhetoric). Rodriguez is not in competition for a spot. Once his rehab's done, it's his to lose. I agree, but technically, all 6 pitchers are in competition for that last spot, because at their recent, sustainable best, all 6 are #1/1A pitchers. Kelly's streak at the end of last year, Buchholz's streak almost every year, for a time. These are ace/near ace pitchers when they put it all together. It's just an embarassment of riches, is what it is. That said, any (or in theory, all 6) of them could spontaneously combust and start getting hit hard for stretches. Yes, even Price, the historically most consistent of them. The Gods of hard contact rain down as they see fit.
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Post by jclmontana on May 12, 2016 9:09:23 GMT -5
Just because Owens and Elias have been stinking it up so far doesn't mean they don't project to be replacement-level or slightly above going forward. Owens is not broken, he's always been like that. And those guys are competing for the 7th starter spot - we have 6 guys who would be in the rotation on most MLB teams: Wright, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Buchholz and Kelly. It just so happens that two of them have short-term injuries. Basically, if you have the ability to look beyond the next two weeks or so, the situation is not bleak at all. I agree Owens isn't broken because this is what he's always been and broken suggests he was something good at some point. However, he wasn't and he isn't and it doesn't appear he will get there. Sure he's tall so it can sometimes take longer for those guys to get their command and control down but patience is wearing thin with him. He's just not good and all this talk about him being a 7th starter so it's ok is aggravating. He's a young kid who's supposed to be a promising prospect and he's been anything but promising. If he doesn't have that label, then he's the worst kind of 7th starter. He's one that can't throw strikes or get you innings. You don't expect these guys to be world beaters but the reason why O'Sullivans 2 WHIP is more palatable than Ownens is because he throws strikes. You can take a guy getting hit around more than you can take a guy walking everyone. The guy who gets shelled if he throws strikes can still give you innings in your loss versus the other guy goes 1.3 and kills your pen. Quibble with the use of "Broken" if you like, but last year, in 63 innings, Owens had a BB/9 of 3.43, and was projected to have a 2016 BB/9 of 4.55 (Zips) and 4.68 (Steamer)j, not great, but serviceable. This year, in a SSS of 12.1 innings (3 games) his BB/9 is 9.49. So yes, Owens is clearly and obviously not the same as previous years. He is out of whack, struggling, or whatever other word you would rather use than broken. It is stupid to write Owens off at this point, his age, past glimpses of dominance, and elite change-up still make him a very good prospect. But, at the moment (and for who knows how long), he is worthless as usable depth.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 12, 2016 9:10:06 GMT -5
I don't think he's had glimpses of dominance. I can't recall any sustained stretches of performance that were dominant in a way that didn't give u pause. He fooled minor leaguers with his change up and still couldn't throw strikes.
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Post by telson13 on May 12, 2016 10:10:46 GMT -5
I don't think he's had glimpses of dominance. I can't recall any sustained stretches of performance that were dominant in a way that didn't give u pause. He fooled minor leaguers with his change up and still couldn't throw strikes. In 2014 he went 17-5 with a walk rate under 3.4/9 IP. But don't let facts get in the way of your opinions. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13143&position=PBut, we do know that pitchers with control problems NEVER figure them out and become successful. Just like Jackie Bradley Jr proved clearly that his minor league success was a complete sham by virtue of his awful first two seasons, and that he would never hit for any power because, well, he wasn't ever much of a power hitter. Seriously...Owens shut down the Royals (the WS-winning Royals, btw) last fall for 8 innings. He dominated the best team in the league, deep into the game. He doesn't do it consistently, but you're not watching if you haven't seen it.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 12, 2016 10:41:04 GMT -5
Ok let's not cherry pick words and miss the point of a post.
Sustained stretches... 8 innings of work does not make a sustain stretch. Yes, Owens has had some nice starts here and there.
2014... Thanks for using a win loss record that tells us a lot. Then you follow it with "a walk rate under 3.4". Do you realize how bad a 3.4 walk rate is? It's terrible. If he qualified last year and had that walk rate he would have been the 8th worst qualified starter with regards to walk rate.
Please note that I qualified my sustained stretch with a statement of "in a way that didn't give us pause". The walk rate was and always has been that pause.
I never said pitchers with control problems don't figure it out. In fact, I said the opposite a couple posts up and even gave him more of a reason in that he's taller.
But where Owens is right now he's a bad spot or fill in starter. He needs to have better control. You have to be able to throw strikes.
Lastly, we have different definitions of what glimpses mean. To me it's something you can look at as realistically someone's ability. One game doesn't do that for me. Right now you're hanging you're argument on a 3.4 walk rate and one start.
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Post by okin15 on May 12, 2016 11:14:10 GMT -5
With that being said, someone will be left out. Farrell stressed there will be competition between the players already in the rotation, and the one’s coming back to earn spots in the five-man rotation.
“It hasn’t been outlined as, ‘Hey, this is a make or break start,'” Farrell said. “We’ve got areas that have obvious room for improvement and we’re working every day to achieve that.” Rodriguez is not in competition for a spot. Once his rehab's done, it's his to lose. I don't agree that E-Rod isn't in a competition. If he reaches the end of his rehab without looking like the pitcher he has been in the past, he may be optioned to get additional conditioning. I suppose there's a scenario where they say he's healthy, but doesn't have the results, but he's not such a mature pitcher that he couldn't use more seasoning. He's got the stuff, and he has already shown glimpses at the MLB level, but if his stuff isn't on track, they may indeed wait to call him up until it is, or his pitchability improves.
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Post by ramireja on May 12, 2016 12:00:40 GMT -5
Ok let's not cherry pick words and miss the point of a post. Sustained stretches... 8 innings of work does not make a sustain stretch. Yes, Owens has had some nice starts here and there.2014... Thanks for using a win loss record that tells us a lot. Then you follow it with "a walk rate under 3.4". Do you realize how bad a 3.4 walk rate is? It's terrible. If he qualified last year and had that walk rate he would have been the 8th worst qualified starter with regards to walk rate. Please note that I qualified my sustained stretch with a statement of "in a way that didn't give us pause". The walk rate was and always has been that pause. I never said pitchers with control problems don't figure it out. In fact, I said the opposite a couple posts up and even gave him more of a reason in that he's taller. But where Owens is right now he's a bad spot or fill in starter. He needs to have better control. You have to be able to throw strikes. Lastly, we have different definitions of what glimpses mean. To me it's something you can look at as realistically someone's ability. One game doesn't do that for me. Right now you're hanging you're argument on a 3.4 walk rate and one start. This is just wrong though. In fact, I'd say moreso than just about any other pitcher in our system, Owens puts up very strong stretches sustained over 3-5 starts, and then tends to lose it. A few examples: - in 2014 (AA) across 5 starts from May 24 to June 20 he went 35+ innings, 20 hits, 1 ER(!), 8 BB, 32 Ks - in 2015 (AAA) across 4 starts from July 10 to July 29 he went 25 innings, 21 hits, 6 ER, 6 BB, 27 Ks - in 2015 (majors) across 3 starts from Sept 16 to Sept 27 he went 22+ innings, 16 hits, 4 ER, 3 BB, 14 K Walks weren't a problem in those stretches. Another reminder to folks out there, his control was brutal to begin last year in AAA (25 BB to 25K after 1st 6 starts) before settling in midseason and rebounding. It may be a thing that unfortunately, he finds some time well after the season begins.
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 12, 2016 13:23:04 GMT -5
this is what i think the rotation should be 1. Price..think he will figure it out 2. Porcello..proving that he deserves it now 3. Eddy..Left, right combo 4. Buck..this is tentative..had 1 good outing..need to see more 5. Wright..flutterball before hardest thrower.
Buchholz doesn't look like he may stick in the rotation if he doesn't find his command O'Sullivan could be an answer, but not right now.
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Post by telson13 on May 12, 2016 13:23:10 GMT -5
Ok let's not cherry pick words and miss the point of a post. Sustained stretches... 8 innings of work does not make a sustain stretch. Yes, Owens has had some nice starts here and there. 2014... Thanks for using a win loss record that tells us a lot. Then you follow it with "a walk rate under 3.4". Do you realize how bad a 3.4 walk rate is? It's terrible. If he qualified last year and had that walk rate he would have been the 8th worst qualified starter with regards to walk rate. Please note that I qualified my sustained stretch with a statement of "in a way that didn't give us pause". The walk rate was and always has been that pause. I never said pitchers with control problems don't figure it out. In fact, I said the opposite a couple posts up and even gave him more of a reason in that he's taller. But where Owens is right now he's a bad spot or fill in starter. He needs to have better control. You have to be able to throw strikes. Lastly, we have different definitions of what glimpses mean. To me it's something you can look at as realistically someone's ability. One game doesn't do that for me. Right now you're hanging you're argument on a 3.4 walk rate and one start. I posted the fangraphs link so you can ponder his peripherals all you want. That's the point of a citation...it's pretty rare for a pitcher to go 17-5 without pitching reasonably well. You can focus on the fact that I quoted a W-L record (which I did despite the fervent hatred for it in analytical circles), because it says something about number of starts, performance, and innings. I got lazy. I didn't think I needed to include his WHIP, xFIP, SIERRA, ERA, etc because it's right there in the link. Yes, we have different definitions of "glimpses." I'm not going to get into it, but you can look at his start log from last year on that same fangraphs page; the start against the Royals wasn't the only very good one. And "realistically someone's ability" is so subjective as to be nonsensical. I get the point of your post, I simply take issue with the representation of (and/or location of) your point on the spectrum of prognosticating Owens's future. I agree that right now he's not a fungible 6/7 starter. Absolutely. He can't be relied upon any more than Bradley Jr could be up until late last year. But the previous post made the point that he is *specifically* struggling this year, which I agree with. He was showing a pattern of improvement in the minors, despite being fairly age-advanced. I also think it's clear that pitchers with higher walk rates can be successful if they're difficult to hit, which Owens has historically been. So yes, maybe we agree more than not, because I do have significant concerns about his control/command. However, I probably have more confidence in his ability to remedy the issue. Edit: rami beat me to it. Owens, like most young pitchers (players?) shows flashes...seasoned players learn to sustain those flashes and limit the disastrous stretches.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 12, 2016 13:36:51 GMT -5
It sounds like there are six guys now competing for five spots. Do they dare send Buchholz down to AAA?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 12, 2016 13:56:17 GMT -5
It sounds like there are six guys now competing for five spots. Do they dare send Buchholz down to AAA? With a DL recovery stint? Sure, but it is still a bit too soon for that. More likely Kelly or ERod get extended rehab time in Rhode Island
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 12, 2016 14:25:57 GMT -5
They dont need to DL Buchholz he has an option left. He just hasn't been performing but is still useful to us in case someone gets injured I still think he is a better option than Owens et al at the moment.
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Post by jimed14 on May 12, 2016 14:28:08 GMT -5
They dont need to DL Buchholz he has an option left. He just hasn't been performing but is still useful to us in case someone gets injured I still think he is a better option than Owens et al at the moment. Anyone with 5 years of MLB service can refuse an option to the minors. They wouldn't do it anyway.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 12, 2016 14:55:12 GMT -5
They dont need to DL Buchholz he has an option left. He just hasn't been performing but is still useful to us in case someone gets injured I still think he is a better option than Owens and Kelly at the moment. FIFY
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 12, 2016 15:23:04 GMT -5
Owens established that he had an absolutely elite MLB changeup in his first MLB cup of coffee, and then at age 23 he walked 13 guys in his first 12.1 IP in his second MLB stint, and was optioned.
Do I have to name the guy who established that he had an absolutely elite MLB fastball (when he could command it) in his first MLB cup of coffee, and then at age 25 walked 26 guys in first 29.1 IP in his second stint, and was optioned?
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Post by larrycook on May 12, 2016 21:35:46 GMT -5
this is what i think the rotation should be 1. Price..think he will figure it out 2. Porcello..proving that he deserves it now 3. Eddy..Left, right combo 4. Buck..this is tentative..had 1 good outing..need to see more 5. Wright..flutterball before hardest thrower. Buchholz doesn't look like he may stick in the rotation if he doesn't find his command O'Sullivan could be an answer, but not right now. I have been so impressed by wright thus far, that I think he deserves the 2 spot. Price, wright and porcello, although his last outing porcello did not have great movement on his pitches like earlier this year. If healthy, Kelly should get the fourth spot. After that it is anybody's guess. Buchholz is not executing pitches, Rodriguez has little command and the velocity is down. Clearly his arm strength is not major league ready yet. Owens is walking 4 plus batters per nine and needs more time at Pawtucket. O'sullivan only throws fastballs and eventually will get hit very hard. Johnson has all kind of control issues. Come July Detroit might be willing to part with Sanchez, or San Diego cut loss ross or cashner. Trade deadline could get interesting.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 12, 2016 21:46:50 GMT -5
this is what i think the rotation should be 1. Price..think he will figure it out 2. Porcello..proving that he deserves it now 3. Eddy..Left, right combo 4. Buck..this is tentative..had 1 good outing..need to see more 5. Wright..flutterball before hardest thrower. Buchholz doesn't look like he may stick in the rotation if he doesn't find his command O'Sullivan could be an answer, but not right now. I have been so impressed by wright thus far, that I think he deserves the 2 spot. Price, wright and porcello, although his last outing porcello did not have great movement on his pitches like earlier this year. If healthy, Kelly should get the fourth spot. After that it is anybody's guess. Buchholz is not executing pitches, Rodriguez has little command and the velocity is down. Clearly his arm strength is not major league ready yet. Owens is walking 4 plus batters per nine and needs more time at Pawtucket. O'sullivan only throws fastballs and eventually will get hit very hard. Johnson has all kind of control issues. Come July Detroit might be willing to part with Sanchez, or San Diego cut loss ross or cashner. Trade deadline could get interesting. Please explain me why.
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Post by jchang on May 12, 2016 22:01:07 GMT -5
If Kelly is back in the lineup, I would pitch Wright the day before. Kelly is the one who most needs hitters with scrambled timing.
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Post by larrycook on May 12, 2016 22:43:00 GMT -5
I have been so impressed by wright thus far, that I think he deserves the 2 spot. Price, wright and porcello, although his last outing porcello did not have great movement on his pitches like earlier this year. If healthy, Kelly should get the fourth spot. After that it is anybody's guess. Buchholz is not executing pitches, Rodriguez has little command and the velocity is down. Clearly his arm strength is not major league ready yet. Owens is walking 4 plus batters per nine and needs more time at Pawtucket. O'sullivan only throws fastballs and eventually will get hit very hard. Johnson has all kind of control issues. Come July Detroit might be willing to part with Sanchez, or San Diego cut loss ross or cashner. Trade deadline could get interesting. Please explain me why. if healthy, it is by default really. Although since spring training,he has thrown fairly well and his ball has good movement, and he has some level of command.
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Post by deepjohn on May 12, 2016 22:49:00 GMT -5
Owens established that he had an absolutely elite MLB changeup in his first MLB cup of coffee, and then at age 23 he walked 13 guys in his first 12.1 IP in his second MLB stint, and was optioned. Do I have to name the guy who established that he had an absolutely elite MLB fastball (when he could command it) in his first MLB cup of coffee, and then at age 25 walked 26 guys in first 29.1 IP in his second stint, and was optioned? I'm going Randy Johnson but I'm seeing 29.2 innings (baseball reference). Nice example!
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 12, 2016 23:09:22 GMT -5
if healthy, it is by default really. Although since spring training,he has thrown fairly well and his ball has good movement, and he has some level of command. spring training stats aren't an accurate way to evaluate a starter, take Porcello as an example: He was by far the worst pitcher of the staff. Kelly doesn't have command or control, just look at his first 2 starts: Vs Toronto he pitched 3 innings where he walked 3 batters and gave up a GS bomb. Vs the O's he pitched 5 innings and walked 5 batters and gave up another bomb. He's a terrible pitcher that you stach in AAA and hope he stays healthy ('cause he's less durable than Buccholz) to use him as depth in case of injury. Eduardo Rodriguez will need another rehab start and will be back and Buccholz is a pitcher with a much better track record.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on May 14, 2016 9:43:20 GMT -5
There is no way I want to "give up" on Owens, but that doesn't mean I think he should be "untouchable" in any deal to acquire a young, established pitcher with multiple years of control. I said going into this season that I really liked our top 3 starters (Price, Porcello and Rodriguez), but beyond that we had some serious concerns.
Price will be fine - his track record is too long, too good, he's in very good shape and he's too young to rationally assume otherwise. He is your one.
Rick Porcello is off to a fantastic start, and the big thing is that I think this is roughly who he is (stats are skewed a little bit toward the "good" side based off getting to face a AAA team in one start). He pitched like a 2 his last year in Detroit, and is pitching like that again this year. Expecting him to be a 2/3 pitcher is perfectly reasonable.
I banked on Eduardo Rodriguez being our number 3 starter this year. I certainly do not want him moved in any "rational" deal, but to assume he will be a number 3 starter right now coming off injury is unfair. His upside is great but there is a lot more room for volatility there than I would have assumed. As such, he is your "number 5" starter - at least in my world.
Steven Wright has been a hugely pleasant surprise. There is no way I expect his current string of sub 3.00ERA pitching to continue, but based off his having about 6 seasons of roughly 3.60ERA pitching between AA and AAA, a guy that can make 30 starts a year with an ERA around 4.00 is certainly a reasonable projection. Due to the volatility of the knuckleball, I would say that is a very good number 4 starter. I didn't think we had that - credit to Eric Van who has been touting him for a while, and anyone else who expected him to be a solid starter. Well done, Eric's posts just stand out to me at this time.
The big issue, in my opinion, is having that other starter that you can reasonably expect to be a 2/3 (like Porcello). During the off-season, I made several posts to the effect of stating that I think banking on Clay Buchholz to be an effective pitcher this year was a huge, season-altering mistake. I cited that we should expect him to be a significantly below average pitcher because that has been his pattern of alternating between a half season of dominance, followed by an injury, followed by a season of terrible pitching for the past 5 seasons. There were plenty of very smart and very good posters who said you shouldn't look for patterns like that, but here we are in the 6th season, and that is exactly what is happening. Every time he takes the mound this year, I'm expecting a pitcher that doesn't give the team a reasonable chance to win the game. This spot needs to be fixed, and not with Joe Kelly. Put anoter way, I don't think Buchholz has a much better track record of what we should expect for THIS year.
In summation, we have an ace who isn't pitching like one, but should be much better. A very good 2/3 in Porcello. A very good number 4 in Wright, a very promising young talent, but with questions, in Rodriguez and our "number 2" who is pitching exactly as he should have been expected to pitch this year - like a guy who doesn't deserve to be in a major league rotation. I would love to see the team make a move with Owens and a player like Basabe as the main pieces, along with other prospects for a solid 3 stater with multiple years of control left. I don't expect that to get someone like Fernandez or Gray, I'm not insane, but think someone more like Julio Teheran. That is the type of move that I think would set the team up very well for this year (and a run at a wild card spot) but more importantly for the next several years as well.
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Post by telson13 on May 15, 2016 11:14:13 GMT -5
Rodriguez is not in competition for a spot. Once his rehab's done, it's his to lose. I agree, but technically, all 6 pitchers are in competition for that last spot, because at their recent, sustainable best, all 6 are #1/1A pitchers. Kelly's streak at the end of last year, Buchholz's streak almost every year, for a time. These are ace/near ace pitchers when they put it all together. It's just an embarassment of riches, is what it is. That said, any (or in theory, all 6) of them could spontaneously combust and start getting hit hard for stretches. Yes, even Price, the historically most consistent of them. The Gods of hard contact rain down as they see fit. Fair enough, although I'd say 1/2, because Kelly's streak was still on less than 6 IP/game, and his FIP wasn't so pretty as his ERA. But I agree that (like last year post-break, with the exception of injured Clay) all of these guys can pitch very well. And since they don't all do it consistently, a little bet-hedging is wise. Now, about acquiring Taijuan Walker...
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Post by sibbysisti on May 15, 2016 12:34:29 GMT -5
if healthy, it is by default really. Although since spring training,he has thrown fairly well and his ball has good movement, and he has some level of command. His last outing he was firing @ 97-98, so his shoulder issues must have abated. He won eight in a row before the end on last season and his first decision this year before the impingement. Deserves to regain his #4, 5 spot until he shows otherwise.
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