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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by loomerloney on May 9, 2016 9:13:06 GMT -5
If Pedroia found the flaw in Price's delivery that will turn his season around that's awesome. Thursday is a big day. But it makes me wonder why our second baseman found it and not our coaching or scouting staff... Shouldn't have have had people devoted to watching Price to see why his velo was down and his command has been so off? I would think that'd be Bannister's job. It really bothered me last year when Hanley and Napoli were quoting Pedroia as finding issues in their swings on video. Why do we have 2 hitting coaches, a pitching coach and "pitcher whisperer" manager plus scouts, video folks analytics folks, etc. and our second baseman is the one trying to solve all these problems? Would it really surprise if Dustin Pedroia has a greater attention to detail than any single person on the coaching staff? And these things aren't strictly additive (i.e. two sets of eyes are not twice as perceptive as one). Having said that, this is not necessarily an indictment of the coaching staff.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 9, 2016 9:13:36 GMT -5
If Pedroia found the flaw in Price's delivery that will turn his season around that's awesome. Thursday is a big day. But it makes me wonder why our second baseman found it and not our coaching or scouting staff... Shouldn't have have had people devoted to watching Price to see why his velo was down and his command has been so off? I would think that'd be Bannister's job. It really bothered me last year when Hanley and Napoli were quoting Pedroia as finding issues in their swings on video. Why do we have 2 hitting coaches, a pitching coach and "pitcher whisperer" manager plus scouts, video folks analytics folks, etc. and our second baseman is the one trying to solve all these problems? They were already working on it, then Pedroia noticed another element that was helpful. David Price isn't going to run around saying, "gosh, the pitching coach noticed something!" But when Pedroia does it, it's noteworthy, nothing wrong with that. From the Herald story on it:
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 9, 2016 10:35:54 GMT -5
Agreed, Dustin maybe saw a "wrinkle" that Bannister & Co couldn't. They have not faced Price for 9 years. Plus DP has a very high baseball IQ, probably on par with many coaches.
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Post by James Dunne on May 9, 2016 11:53:54 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but "Pitching coach helping pitcher with delivery" is the baseball equivalent of reporting "Dog bites man." It would only be a story if Carl Willis wasn't working with Price.
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Post by jmei on May 10, 2016 9:49:26 GMT -5
The latest ProJo podcast had an interesting question: at the end of the year, will David Price or Steven Wright have the better full-season ERA? For Price to win out, assuming they both pitch fullish seasons, he'd have to be a little less than a run-and-a-half better than Wright the rest of the way. That's right about what I think the true-talent difference is (I think Price is a ~3.00 ERA guy and Wright is a ~4.25 ERA guy).
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Post by jclmontana on May 10, 2016 12:48:57 GMT -5
I wonder how long the front office is going to wait and see before acquiring at least another 5-6 starter type. The vaunted depth of the rotation has thinned out...
Price--temporarily (I hope) broken
Porcello--Seems to be solid to really good, now going back to the middle of last season.
Wright--a revelation, but can it last? (I think it can)
Buchholz--broken, but, good for a sustained run of excellence? Really? I question (in the literal sense of the word, question, without rancor or venom) whether the confidence that Buchholz will eventually come through and perform is warranted. I say this because his extremes in performance are so extreme, his year to year performance doesn't really seem to have a pattern, and so much of his variability is physical, and dare I say, perhaps mental. He just seems like a crap shoot to me, an unconventional performance profile that we are thinking about using conventional logic, which makes the conclusion that he is going to be good this year unreliable, or at least questionable. (go ahead and shoot this down, but please don't take this as a personal attack. It is not.)
Rodriquez--unimpressive so far in his rehab, so currently still broken, but ,hopefully, not for long. However, not that long of a track record of excellence. Might need some more time to stabilize his performance.
Kelly--Broken, huge question mark
Owens--Broken, huge question mark
Johnson--Broken. unclear what is happening here. Prolonged physical recovery? Change in mechanics to prevent future injuries? Bad habits developed during rehab? Uncharted waters with his control issues
O'Sullivan--seems like a real long shot to be even competent, but, whatever; makes for interesting times.
Still reasonable to hope for/expect a competitive top 4, but that many questions in the back end of the rotation and in the depth options is probably not tenable for very long. Either some of these questions are put to rest, or the uncertainty will have to be addressed. The offense seems legit this year, so it provides room for the rotation to settle, but having predictable, competent options for 5-7 is a big deal for a contender, and especially for a contender with Buchholz in the rotation. Not to mention that Wright is in line for SOME level of regression. I don't see anyone stepping up and filling the depth void at this point--the rest of the upper minor pitchers don't really stand out.
Going back to Buchholz, I agree that he can be a reasonable risk in the rotation, IF there are good depth options. Those depth options looked great before the season started, but not so much now. The presence of Buchholz on the staff, performing poorly, along with the diminishment of the depth options, almost demands an early move to shore up the SP depth. Not necessarily right now, but either the existing pitchers figure out their issues, or changes will be coming, sooner rather than later.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,420
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Post by radiohix on May 10, 2016 15:52:18 GMT -5
I need some fresh pants!
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Post by jclmontana on May 10, 2016 16:23:31 GMT -5
Ewww. But good news, nevertheless. Actually, very good news. Erod coming back healthy and effective could avoid a cascade of high-cost transactions and roster maneuvering. I expect the sox to look at upgrading where and when they can, but the less pressure to make changes, the better the likely outcome.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 10, 2016 16:54:05 GMT -5
Who would you eject at this point, the guy with the $217 million contract? Wright and Porcello have been killing it, and if Rodriguez is post tip-off and jamming, that's 4 slots. Having Buchholz as your fifth isn't exactly a weakness.
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Post by jclmontana on May 10, 2016 17:17:39 GMT -5
Who would you eject at this point, the guy with the $217 million contract? Wright and Porcello have been killing it, and if Rodriguez is post tip-off and jamming, that's 4 slots. Having Buchholz as your fifth isn't exactly a weakness. But having Sean O'Sullivan as a 6th starter is a weakness (and yes, if Sully kills it tonight, I am DEFINITELY claiming credit for the reverse jinx). My point is that the rotation depth the Sox had is presently not available, and that is a problem. When Kelly comes back, it will get better, but the key is Rodriquez. Assuming the Rodriquez comes back strong, you are right, there is more reason to give Buchholz the opportunity to not suck, and to tolerate poor options for a sixth starter, at least for the short-term.
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Post by mgoetze on May 10, 2016 18:07:33 GMT -5
Just because Owens and Elias have been stinking it up so far doesn't mean they don't project to be replacement-level or slightly above going forward. Owens is not broken, he's always been like that. And those guys are competing for the 7th starter spot - we have 6 guys who would be in the rotation on most MLB teams: Wright, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Buchholz and Kelly. It just so happens that two of them have short-term injuries.
Basically, if you have the ability to look beyond the next two weeks or so, the situation is not bleak at all.
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Post by jchang on May 10, 2016 19:46:08 GMT -5
O'Sullivan staking his claim for another start.
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Post by dcsoxfan on May 10, 2016 20:22:54 GMT -5
Ewww. But good news, nevertheless. Actually, very good news. Erod coming back healthy and effective could avoid a cascade of high-cost transactions and roster maneuvering. I expect the sox to look at upgrading where and when they can, but the less pressure to make changes, the better the likely outcome. Actually wouldn't a little common sense save them from making those transactions? The Red Sox won championships in 2004, 2007 and 2013 with rotations that arguably weren't any better than this one. This is already a competitive and entertaining team; why the urgency need for an upgrade?
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Post by iakovos11 on May 10, 2016 20:22:59 GMT -5
12 hits in 6 innings is staking claim to another start? He may get one, but I don't think he staked much of a claim to it.
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Post by dnfl333 on May 10, 2016 20:50:32 GMT -5
12 hits in 6 innings is staking claim to another start? He may get one, but I don't think he staked much of a claim to it. In the NFL Sullivan is a JAG Why BJohnson wasn't considered is ? Plenty of trade bait in the minors to acquire another starter. Swihart comes to mind packaged with ?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 10, 2016 22:53:03 GMT -5
Does Sullivan get another start?
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Post by telson13 on May 11, 2016 0:02:49 GMT -5
12 hits in 6 innings is staking claim to another start? He may get one, but I don't think he staked much of a claim to it. Yeah, I find that laughable. A WHIP of 2 is not good. That's exactly what got Owens sent down.
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Post by jmei on May 11, 2016 8:11:28 GMT -5
Eduardo Rodriguez will need at least one more rehab start, so there is at least one more start up for grabs (with O'Sullivan presumably in the lead).
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 11, 2016 8:57:06 GMT -5
Can't see who else gets it ... Johnson's not ready, and Owens isn't going to be the guy. That really just leaves O'Sullivan and Elias, and Elias's control makes Owens look like Maddux right now.
I think the question really is: does 80% (or whatever) of Rodriguez give you more than 100% of O'Sullivan. Don't know the answer to that, but I assume that's why Farrell was watching ERod's bullpen session.
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Post by soxfanatic on May 11, 2016 9:01:32 GMT -5
Can't see who else gets it ... Johnson's not ready, and Owens isn't going to be the guy. That really just leaves O'Sullivan and Elias, and Elias's control makes Owens look like Maddux right now. I think the question really is: does 80% (or whatever) of Rodriguez give you more than 100% of O'Sullivan. Don't know the answer to that, but I assume that's why Farrell was watching ERod's bullpen session. I'm sure the Red Sox want E-Rod to start the season off on the right foot (or leg for that matter). I think they rather lose one game than have him potentially mess up his confidence by sending him out there not completely ready.
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Post by jchang on May 11, 2016 9:53:09 GMT -5
12 hits in 6 innings is staking claim to another start? He may get one, but I don't think he staked much of a claim to it. My post was after 5ip. I don't have an issue that he gave up 4r in the 6th. For a spot starter, 5 scoreless is damn good. Knowing that we have a serviceable starter in AAA is good.
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Post by okin15 on May 11, 2016 14:21:11 GMT -5
Knowing that we have a serviceable starter in AAA is good. Unfortunately O'Sullivan doesn't have any options left. He might clear waivers, but there are a lot of pitching-hungry teams out there, so if he does clear, it's probably because his next start went worse than his first one.
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Post by jclmontana on May 11, 2016 22:32:35 GMT -5
From Fullcount: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/05/11/john-farrell-stressing-competition-in-starting-rotation-with-returns-of-joe-kelly-eduardo-rodriguez-nearing/#more-103345With that being said, someone will be left out. Farrell stressed there will be competition between the players already in the rotation, and the one’s coming back to earn spots in the five-man rotation.“I think if there is one theme through the first 33 games, it’s been competition,” he said. “Internal competition is a really healthy thing and we’re obviously encouraging it.”
“It hasn’t been outlined as, ‘Hey, this is a make or break start,'” Farrell said. “We’ve got areas that have obvious room for improvement and we’re working every day to achieve that.”Huh. Certainly seems like the Sox don't have the same equanimity about Buchholz as many on this board seem to have. Clearly there is no "obvious" room to improve upon the performance of Porcello or Wright, and despite the words, Price is NOT in competition with anyone, he has a spot hell or high water. This just a nicer way of saying that Buchholz, Kelly, and Rodriquez are in competition for two spots in the rotation. If they were sure that Buchholz was going to turn golden at any moment, they probably would have simply said that Kelly and Rodriquez were in competition for the last rotation spot and left it at that. The only other thing that comes to mind is that this is some sort of blatant, ham-handed motivational ploy to light a fire under Buchholz. At any rate, a pretty amazing difference from the last, oh 12 or so years of front office philosophy (or at least rhetoric).
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Post by telson13 on May 12, 2016 0:17:14 GMT -5
From Fullcount: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/05/11/john-farrell-stressing-competition-in-starting-rotation-with-returns-of-joe-kelly-eduardo-rodriguez-nearing/#more-103345With that being said, someone will be left out. Farrell stressed there will be competition between the players already in the rotation, and the one’s coming back to earn spots in the five-man rotation.“I think if there is one theme through the first 33 games, it’s been competition,” he said. “Internal competition is a really healthy thing and we’re obviously encouraging it.”
“It hasn’t been outlined as, ‘Hey, this is a make or break start,'” Farrell said. “We’ve got areas that have obvious room for improvement and we’re working every day to achieve that.”Huh. Certainly seems like the Sox don't have the same equanimity about Buchholz as many on this board seem to have. Clearly there is no "obvious" room to improve upon the performance of Porcello or Wright, and despite the words, Price is NOT in competition with anyone, he has a spot hell or high water. This just a nicer way of saying that Buchholz, Kelly, and Rodriquez are in competition for two spots in the rotation. If they were sure that Buchholz was going to turn golden at any moment, they probably would have simply said that Kelly and Rodriquez were in competition for the last rotation spot and left it at that. The only other thing that comes to mind is that this is some sort of blatant, ham-handed motivational ploy to light a fire under Buchholz. At any rate, a pretty amazing difference from the last, oh 12 or so years of front office philosophy (or at least rhetoric). Rodriguez is not in competition for a spot. Once his rehab's done, it's his to lose.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 12, 2016 7:50:04 GMT -5
Just because Owens and Elias have been stinking it up so far doesn't mean they don't project to be replacement-level or slightly above going forward. Owens is not broken, he's always been like that. And those guys are competing for the 7th starter spot - we have 6 guys who would be in the rotation on most MLB teams: Wright, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Buchholz and Kelly. It just so happens that two of them have short-term injuries. Basically, if you have the ability to look beyond the next two weeks or so, the situation is not bleak at all. I agree Owens isn't broken because this is what he's always been and broken suggests he was something good at some point. However, he wasn't and he isn't and it doesn't appear he will get there. Sure he's tall so it can sometimes take longer for those guys to get their command and control down but patience is wearing thin with him. He's just not good and all this talk about him being a 7th starter so it's ok is aggravating. He's a young kid who's supposed to be a promising prospect and he's been anything but promising. If he doesn't have that label, then he's the worst kind of 7th starter. He's one that can't throw strikes or get you innings. You don't expect these guys to be world beaters but the reason why O'Sullivans 2 WHIP is more palatable than Ownens is because he throws strikes. You can take a guy getting hit around more than you can take a guy walking everyone. The guy who gets shelled if he throws strikes can still give you innings in your loss versus the other guy goes 1.3 and kills your pen.
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