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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2016 16:56:04 GMT -5
Kelly did some new shoulder exercises and reports that the shoulder is in the best shape of its life. He then has back-to-back games with the exceptional fastball command that has always been the one thing he lacks to be a frontline starter (in fact, it's often been so supbar as to make him below average).
Kelly believes there is a causal connection. It might be random, but it also makes sense that there would be at least some improvement. It could be slight, though.
In his next start, he had awful FB command again. However, in both of the MLB starts (and probably in his last rehab stat), he has gone back to throwing a lot of FBs, whereas his success last fall came by throwing an ordinary number, and using his offspeed stuff much more.
If, in fact, both of the following two things are true, Kelly should be very good. If one is true, perfectly adequate as a 5th starter.
1) He actually has significantly better FB command than before.
2) He and his catchers will use the revised pitch mix on any days when the FB command is lacking and only throw lots of FBs on days when it is plus (which would be more or less always and never if #1 is not true).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2016 17:20:35 GMT -5
Current rotation preference, following the top three of Price/Porcello/Wright 1. Eduardo Rodriguez 2. Clay Buchholz 3. Roenis Elias 4. Three to four innings from Robbie Ross with Heath Hembree piggybacking him 5. Keith Couch 6. William Cuevas 7. Sean O'Sullivan 8. Henry Owens 9. Tim Wakefield 10. Roger Clemens 11. Greg A. Harris 12. Greg W. Harris 13. Gene Harris 14. Harrison Barnes 15. Joe Kelly I totally agree with this post. Bring up Elias, get rid of Kelly. He's not a very good starting pitcher.
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Post by dnfl333 on May 29, 2016 20:49:36 GMT -5
Current rotation preference, following the top three of Price/Porcello/Wright 1. Eduardo Rodriguez 2. Clay Buchholz 3. Roenis Elias 4. Three to four innings from Robbie Ross with Heath Hembree piggybacking him 5. Keith Couch 6. William Cuevas 7. Sean O'Sullivan 8. Henry Owens 9. Tim Wakefield 10. Roger Clemens 11. Greg A. Harris 12. Greg W. Harris 13. Gene Harris 14. Harrison Barnes 15. Joe Kelly I totally agree with this post. Bring up Elias, get rid of Kelly. He's not a very good starting pitcher. Deal em off while the value is there. Find relief help
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Post by mandelbro on May 29, 2016 22:24:04 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 31, 2016 5:20:49 GMT -5
So, I looked up two numbers for everyone who started for the winning WS team 2011-2015. xFIP-, because it's adjusted for league and year and SIERA isn't. And bWAR per 32 GS, because that's the best measure we have of actual value.
Here are all the 1 through 3 starters, ranked by bWAR. I've included this year's Red Sox top 3. Each group of 6 pitchers represents guys good enough, on average, to start game 1, 2 and 3 of a WS. Wright had a 5.3 bWAR pace before yesterday's game; I've updated that to the current 5.8.
Year Team St Name bWAR/32 2016 Bos 2 Steven Wright 5.8 2015 KC 2 Johnny Cueto 3.9 2012 SF 1 Matt Cain 3.9 2014 SF 1 Madi. Bumgarner 3.9 2016 Bos 3 Rick Porcello 3.5 2011 StL 1 Chris Carpenter 3.3 2013 Bos 2 John Lackey 3.1 2013 Bos 1 Jon Lester 2.9 2015 KC 1 Edinson Volquez 2.4 2011 StL 2 Kyle Lohse 2.3 2015 KC 3 Yordano Ventura 2.2 2012 SF 2 Madi. Bumgarner 2.1 2013 Bos 3 Jake Peavy 2.1 2012 SF 3 Ryan Vogelsong 2.1 2014 SF 2 Jake Peavy 2.0 2014 SF 3 Tim Hudson 1.5 2011 StL 3 Jaime Garcia 0.7 2016 Bos 1 David Price 0.0 Well, how about that. The average bWAR of the best pitcher on the last 5 WS winers (per 32 starts) was 3.6. Our #3 is on pace for 3.5, which would make him the ace of two of the five teams. Our #2 is blowing everyone away.
You might be worried about Price being last. What did Matthew say in 20:16?
Year Team St Name xFIP- 2016 Bos 1 David Price 77 2014 SF 1 Madi. Bumgarner 78 2011 StL 1 Chris Carpenter 86 2011 StL 3 Jaime Garcia 86 2013 Bos 2 John Lackey 88 2012 SF 2 Madi. Bumgarner 88 2015 KC 3 Yordano Ventura 89 2016 Bos 3 Rick Porcello 91 2015 KC 2 Johnny Cueto 96 2013 Bos 1 Jon Lester 98 2012 SF 1 Matt Cain 98 2016 Bos 2 Steven Wright 100
2013 Bos 3 Jake Peavy 102 2015 KC 1 Edinson Volquez 105 2011 StL 2 Kyle Lohse 105 2012 SF 3 Ryan Vogelsong 106 2014 SF 2 Jake Peavy 111 2014 SF 3 Tim Hudson 111 How about that. Our ace is the best ace, our #3 is the second best #2, and our #2 who gets hosed by xFIP- is still a #2.
Yes, you say, but what about the 4th starter? All we have is E-Rod, Kelly, and Buchholz to choose from!
Here are the actual 4th starters for the last 5 WS winners:
Year Team St Name xFIP- bWAR/32 2015 KC 4 Chris Young 129 3.6 2014 SF 4 Ryan Vogelsong 118 1.2 2013 Bos 4 Clay Buchholz 86 8.6 2012 SF 4 Barry Zito 126 0.2 2011 StL 4 Edwin Jackson 105 3.0 Young was a swingman getting by on smoke and mirrors. Jackson had accrued most of his WAR before his deadline trade and had been a disappointment. Buchholz was hurt (but that bWAR figure should remind you why you simply don't give up on him). Vogelsong was bad and Zito was awful.
The belief that we need to outbid other teams to acquire another frontline starter (pushing Wright or Porcello to a game 4!) is not in touch with reality. Those who have this belief are welcome to keep repeating it, but, please, make your point of view clear by simultaneously asserting that the earth is flat, the Pope prays three times a day facing Mecca, or that Bobby Valentine was the best manager in Red Sox history.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 31, 2016 8:30:10 GMT -5
The fact that Steven Wright has a 100 -xFIP as a knuckleballer just shows how good he's been. You really can't overstate how important a development this has been, giving the Sox another front-line starter out of nothing. There has been a lot of positive developments this year with the Sox (JBJ emergence, Bogaerts taking another step, Hanley being productive), but this has been the biggest.
Yeah, right now the Sox have three guys who can win playoff games, and they may be adding a fourth today, we'll see how Rodriguez develops this year.
The depth to withstand more than one significant injury isn't really there with the problems Owens and Johnson are having, but that's digging pretty deep to find a problem and one not worth spending significant resources solving.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 31, 2016 9:45:30 GMT -5
The fact that Steven Wright has a 100 -xFIP as a knuckleballer just shows how good he's been. You really can't overstate how important a development this has been, giving the Sox another front-line starter out of nothing. There has been a lot of positive developments this year with the Sox (JBJ emergence, Bogaerts taking another step, Hanley being productive), but this has been the biggest. Yeah, right now the Sox have three guys who can win playoff games, and they may be adding a fourth today, we'll see how Rodriguez develops this year. The depth to withstand more than one significant injury isn't really there with the problems Owens and Johnson are having, but that's digging pretty deep to find a problem and one not worth spending significant resources solving. E-Rod was 3.8, 100 last year. Kelly was 1.3, 101. Buchholz is 3.0, 99 or 100 since 2009. So the three guys competing for the #4 and #5 slots include two credible game 2 starters (one with an obvious asterisk) and 1 acceptable game 3. Yup, depth.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 31, 2016 12:05:29 GMT -5
I'm still not buying Porcello in the playoffs. He is just too hittable to me. I guess it is expectations and I see the reality of no teams being perfect. Except for that one good year with the Tigers though he hasn't had a ton of swing and miss. At least he was trending better over the years until last year. I'm not saying he's horrible and so far this year he is good, and he is still young, but I'd like to do better. We have a core of cheap great young players now and I think we should continue to strive most on improving the rotation.
And it is such a shame that we lost Carson Smith. We would have benefited a lot from a stronger relief corp. I hate it when we trade for a good reliever and within 2 weeks of use they are on the DL. There should be some sort of league protection against such things as sometimes I think other teams dump their injury risk guys on us.
I also don't think we can count on Erod for that much right now, coming off an injury and after not looking all that great in his minor league work this year. His stuff doesn't look to be up to his previous studly self. Hopefully he can work his way back and become an animal in time for the playoffs.
Don't look now but we have the best record in the AL.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2016 7:55:10 GMT -5
This was pointed out in the Gameday thread, but the Red Sox really can go very comfortably with a four-man rotation the next couple weeks
6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) 6/5: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/7: Porcello (5 days) 6/8: Price (5 days) 6/10: Wright (6 days) 6/11: Rodriguez (6 days) 6/12: Porcello (5 days) 6/14: Price (6 days) 6/15: Wright (5 days) 6/16: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/17: Porcello (5 days)
Not only does everyone get full rest during this stretch, but Wright, Price, and Rodriguez would all have one start that's on an extra day of rest. Given the drop-off from those four to whoever would be making the fifth start - Buchholz, Elias, Owens, etc. - going with a four man over this stretch is absolutely the smart move.
Also, and I may be crazy on this - the Red Sox should send Ross to Triple-A and stretch him out as a starter. I have no idea what Buchholz will do the rest of the year, but I really think Ross is simply better than Kelly and Elias. And with the starter depth so depleted it's something I'd like to see happen.
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2016 8:30:25 GMT -5
They don't really have the bullpen depth to risk it.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 2, 2016 9:05:16 GMT -5
6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) ... So not only do you Americans write the day of the month and the month in the wrong order, you also count the day of the game as a day of rest. Crazy.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 2, 2016 9:16:35 GMT -5
This was pointed out in the Gameday thread, but the Red Sox really can go very comfortably with a four-man rotation the next couple weeks 6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) 6/5: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/7: Porcello (5 days) 6/8: Price (5 days) 6/10: Wright (6 days) 6/11: Rodriguez (6 days) 6/12: Porcello (5 days) 6/14: Price (6 days) 6/15: Wright (5 days) 6/16: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/17: Porcello (5 days) Not only does everyone get full rest during this stretch, but Wright, Price, and Rodriguez would all have one start that's on an extra day of rest. Given the drop-off from those four to whoever would be making the fifth start - Buchholz, Elias, Owens, etc. - going with a four man over this stretch is absolutely the smart move. Also, and I may be crazy on this - the Red Sox should send Ross to Triple-A and stretch him out as a starter. I have no idea what Buchholz will do the rest of the year, but I really think Ross is simply better than Kelly and Elias. And with the starter depth so depleted it's something I'd like to see happen. It's such a shame that Owens, Elias, and Johnson could not capitalize on this opportunity, Preseason I thought at least one of those three would be pitching well enough to earn a spot. I guess Wright stole all their thunder. I was beating the Kelly to the bullpen drum last year, then backed off when it was clear management wanted him as a starter. I don't see any more slack in his rope, if he doesn't show something in his next two AAA starts they need to move him to the bullpen. I'm on board for the 4 man rotation through this stretch. Give Buch another shot if no one else steps up and put Kelly into the bullpen. Also get Hembree back in the MLB as soon as he is eligible.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 2, 2016 9:35:41 GMT -5
About an hour ago James Dunne said:
The Red Sox really can go very comfortably with a four-man rotation the next couple weeks
6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) 6/5: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/7: Porcello (5 days) 6/8: Price (5 days) 6/10: Wright (6 days) 6/11: Rodriguez (6 days) 6/12: Porcello (5 days) 6/14: Price (6 days) 6/15: Wright (5 days) 6/16: Rodriguez (5 days) 6/17: Porcello (5 days)
I agree with this rotation through the 17th;
Let Kelly get a couple of starts in AAA & Buchholz more time to straighten himself out in the Pen. Maybe one of them improves (unlikely I think). If both continue to stink it up maybe one of Owens, Johnson, Elias or Cuevas steps up and earns a chance (unlikely I think). If none of that pans out maybe it's time to look at giving someone like Aaron Wilkerson a chance or maybe even O'Sullivan again.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 2, 2016 11:23:06 GMT -5
They don't really have the bullpen depth to risk it. Texas tried Ross as a starter a few years ago in which he imploded. I think we learned a lesson with the Bard experiment. He's very valuable in the pen. Also, I didn't think Buch pitched that badly last night. He was squeezed in the zone & Pedey didn't help him either. Where's Aaron Cook?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2016 11:24:45 GMT -5
I was beating the Kelly to the bullpen drum last year, then backed off when it was clear management wanted him as a starter. I don't see any more slack in his rope, if he doesn't show something in his next two AAA starts they need to move him to the bullpen. I don't care if he strikes out all 54 batters he faces over two Pawtucket starts. He should never start another game with the Red Sox. He's gotten 41 starts and 218 innings as a starter with the Sox, and his ERA is 5.00 and his FIP is 4.47. He turns 28 next week. Twenty-eight! It's not like he's some prospect or something. He gets treated like he's some 23-year-old dynamo with control issues. He's older than Rick Porcello! Like Felix Doubront before him, his career as a starter has been kept alive by a series of well-timed hot streaks or excellent single starts, rather than any sustained good pitching. He needs to go to the bullpen right now.
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art
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Post by art on Jun 2, 2016 11:43:40 GMT -5
Maybe they should stick with a 4-man rotation. I know it would go against conventional wisdom now, but it was the norm when I became a baseball fan. I have never seen any evidence that a 5-man rotation is beneficial to pitchers' health. The author of this article argues that it is not: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1596
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 2, 2016 12:07:59 GMT -5
Maybe they should stick with a 4-man rotation. I know it would go against conventional wisdom now, but it was the norm when I became a baseball fan. I have never seen any evidence that a 5-man rotation is beneficial to pitchers' health. The author of this article argues that it is not: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1596Thanks. Intersting piece. The Sox have a chance to try it out; and also the luxury during this trial to: 1. Determine if any of their wounded or aspiring depth can pull it together. 2. Spot start Buch or Sully or whomever if needed or desirable 3. Work the trade wire for a mid-rotation stud without sacrificing legit untouchables.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 2, 2016 12:18:16 GMT -5
6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) ... So not only do you Americans write the day of the month and the month in the wrong order, you also count the day of the game as a day of rest. Crazy. I'm bad at sarcasm, but those 5's should all be 4's in the world where I come from... You can also get Porcello an extra day's rest if desired just by pushing him back from the 17th to the 18th. Still the four man rotation, but needing the fifth guy one day sooner. Easy.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 2, 2016 17:30:28 GMT -5
Also, and I may be crazy on this - the Red Sox should send Ross to Triple-A and stretch him out as a starter. I have no idea what Buchholz will do the rest of the year, but I really think Ross is simply better than Kelly and Elias. And with the starter depth so depleted it's something I'd like to see happen. Oooh, interesting idea! Though Texas tried that before and it seemed to send him on a 2 year stumbling journey where he wasn't good at anything.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 2, 2016 17:54:19 GMT -5
6/2: Porcello (5 days rest) 6/3: Price (5 days rest) 6/4: Wright (5 days) ... So not only do you Americans write the day of the month and the month in the wrong order, you also count the day of the game as a day of rest. Crazy. US Military agree. Not many here.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2016 17:59:39 GMT -5
His initial nine-start run in the rotation in 2014 was pretty solid with decent peripherals. It was especially serviceable when you consider what parks he pitched in - six in Arlington, one at Fenway, one at Coors. Safeco was the only pitchers park he got to go to. He was really let down by a disastrous Rangers defense. He had a particularly unlucky two start stretch when he gave up 22 hits on 48 balls in play After that they really bounced him around and he was miserable for the rest of the season (especially when they spot started him).
I recognize, though, that he's an important part of the bullpen right now so it might not be the right time to make such a move. But I really think he could be like a 4.25 ERA type and I'm 97.5% confident he'd outperform what they've gotten from Joe Kelly.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 2, 2016 18:06:09 GMT -5
His initial nine-start run in the rotation in 2014 was pretty solid with decent peripherals. It was especially serviceable when you consider what parks he pitched in - six in Arlington, one at Fenway, one at Coors. Safeco was the only pitchers park he got to go to. He was really let down by a disastrous Rangers defense. He had a particularly unlucky two start stretch when he gave up 22 hits on 48 balls in play After that they really bounced him around and he was miserable for the rest of the season (especially when they spot started him). I recognize, though, that he's an important part of the bullpen right now so it might not be the right time to make such a move. But I really think he could be like a 4.25 ERA type and I'm 97.5% confident he'd outperform what they've gotten from Joe Kelly. Well, Farrell would have to use him then...
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 2, 2016 18:06:10 GMT -5
To be clear, it goes like this 6 june, the day the US wooped German butt.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 3, 2016 4:30:16 GMT -5
His initial nine-start run in the rotation in 2014 was pretty solid with decent peripherals. It was especially serviceable when you consider what parks he pitched in - six in Arlington, one at Fenway, one at Coors. Safeco was the only pitchers park he got to go to. He was really let down by a disastrous Rangers defense. He had a particularly unlucky two start stretch when he gave up 22 hits on 48 balls in play After that they really bounced him around and he was miserable for the rest of the season (especially when they spot started him). I recognize, though, that he's an important part of the bullpen right now so it might not be the right time to make such a move. But I really think he could be like a 4.25 ERA type and I'm 97.5% confident he'd outperform what they've gotten from Joe Kelly. Well, Farrell would have to use him then... With Buccholz in the pen, is there really a need to send Ross to Pawtucket to stretch him out? They could essentially piggyback them while he stretched. I do recall that he once said he wanted to start (I know, they all do). It would seem that with all the days off, now might be a great time to do that. That would also have the benefit of the remote chance that Clayboy finds his groove.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 3, 2016 8:45:30 GMT -5
His initial nine-start run in the rotation in 2014 was pretty solid with decent peripherals. It was especially serviceable when you consider what parks he pitched in - six in Arlington, one at Fenway, one at Coors. Safeco was the only pitchers park he got to go to. He was really let down by a disastrous Rangers defense. He had a particularly unlucky two start stretch when he gave up 22 hits on 48 balls in play After that they really bounced him around and he was miserable for the rest of the season (especially when they spot started him). I recognize, though, that he's an important part of the bullpen right now so it might not be the right time to make such a move. But I really think he could be like a 4.25 ERA type and I'm 97.5% confident he'd outperform what they've gotten from Joe Kelly. There may be some guys (or gals) on this forum that can do that.
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