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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2016 15:04:59 GMT -5
Uggh. I was clearly wrong about Rodriguez. The 4/5 slots on this team have been (historically?) atrocious. Don't tempt me, Frodo! My first thought was, that's a lot of work. But it actually isn't -- all I need to do to get a pretty good idea is reload the spreadsheet I constructed with data from many years. The catch involves guys who pitched for 2 or more teams in a year. I did Shields and Chacin manually this year ... OK, I have just for the first time noticed the "Split Teams" check box on the FaGraphs leaderboard page. Done. Look for it tomorrow morning, along with an estimate of the likelihood of the badness based on PECOTA projections.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 28, 2016 16:59:10 GMT -5
Uggh. I was clearly wrong about Rodriguez. The 4/5 slots on this team have been (historically?) atrocious. Don't tempt me, Frodo! My first thought was, that's a lot of work. But it actually isn't -- all I need to do to get a pretty good idea is reload the spreadsheet I constructed with data from many years. The catch involves guys who pitched for 2 or more teams in a year. I did Shields and Chacin manually this year ... OK, I have just for the first time noticed the "Split Teams" check box on the FaGraphs leaderboard page. Done. Look for it tomorrow morning, along with an estimate of the likelihood of the badness based on PECOTA projections. The funny thing is, that's exactly why I wrote it. Careful, you're becoming predictable!
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2016 0:36:10 GMT -5
Don't tempt me, Frodo! My first thought was, that's a lot of work. But it actually isn't -- all I need to do to get a pretty good idea is reload the spreadsheet I constructed with data from many years. The catch involves guys who pitched for 2 or more teams in a year. I did Shields and Chacin manually this year ... OK, I have just for the first time noticed the "Split Teams" check box on the FaGraphs leaderboard page. Done. Look for it tomorrow morning, along with an estimate of the likelihood of the badness based on PECOTA projections. The funny thing is, that's exactly why I wrote it. Careful, you're becoming predictable! Two things I can tell you: 1) The 5-man rotation became universal in 1976. In 1975, the White Sox had used a 4-man all year, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles, and Yankees used it for part of the season. 2) The greatest top 3 of all time? Arguably the 2002 Red Sox, where Pedro had had a 50, Derek Lowe a 57, and Tim Wakefield joined the rotation on July 2 and made 15 starts with a 52, and qualified for the ERA title with his 30 relief appearances with a 76. If, however, you want all 3 top guys pitching all year, it's the 2005 Astros, with Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt with 44, 57, and 70. The 1999 Red Sox are 5th, with Pedro at 42, Saberhagen at 60, and I challenge everyone to name who had an 89 (without looking it up). I'd forgotten he existed. The 1990 Sox are 18th, with Clemens at 47, Tom Bolton in a half-season at 78, and Boddicker at 82.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2016 2:39:23 GMT -5
Since the 5-man rotation became universal in 1976, only 2 teams in MLB have had comparable problems with their 4th and 5th starters.
All but 2 of the 21 teams with the worst 4 & 5 guys had their top 3 guys worse than 85, and in fact they averaged 105. The two teams that have been worse than the Sox current 165 are in fact the two teams, that, like the Sox, have had a good overall top 3. They and the 2016 Sox to date form a trio that's off the scale in the contrast between the front and back of the rotation.
The 1981 Tigers had Jack Morris, Milt Wilcox, and Dan Petry with 83, 83, and 84, but got a worst-ever 169 from Dan Schatzeder, Dave Rozema, Howard Bailey, Jerry Ujdur, et al.
The 2004 Diamondbacks had Randy Johnson with a 57 and Brandon Webb with a 79, but it went to hell after that. Steve Sparks made 18 starts with a 132, giving the trio a collective 79 thanks to RJ. Then they had Casey Fossum (27 GS with a 146), Casey Daigle (10 with a 157) and even worse numbers from Edgar Gonzalez, Elmer Dessens, Stephen Randolph, et al.
Now, you may have noticed that neither of these teams actually had as good a playoff-caliber top 3 as the Sox currently do. The D'backs had no #3. The Tigers didn't have anyone approaching Wright's 49.
So you'd have to say that no team since the 5-man rotation became universal in 1976 has had a top 3 as playoff-ready as the Red Sox and 4 & 5 guys as unimaginably bad.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 29, 2016 6:47:10 GMT -5
Two things I can tell you: 1) .... 2) .... .... The 1999 Red Sox are 5th, with Pedro at 42, Saberhagen at 60, and I challenge everyone to name who had an 89 (without looking it up). I'd forgotten he existed.Well, whoever it was, can we get him back as our 5th starter?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2016 7:11:57 GMT -5
Pretty sure I know the answer. He spent most of his career with the Marlins, yes?
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2016 9:21:19 GMT -5
Pretty sure I know the answer. He spent most of his career with the Marlins, yes? Indeed. He was sent to the bullpen after his start on June 22, when he had a 5.26 ERA (4.60 today). He had a 3.12 ERA (= 2.73) pitching in relief through July 22, went back into the rotation and had a 2.85 ERA ( = 2.49) in his next 8 starts. He turned back into a pumpkin over his next 3. On 9/29 he started against the White Sox with his postseason rotation job on the line. Simple game log: GB, GB, Bunt Out GB 1B, GDP, GB GB, PU, GB Bunt 1B, FB 1B, GB-ROE, GB-ROE, GDP, LD Out GB IB, GDP, PU PU, PU, GB Jimy Williams banished him to the pen anyway. I guess giving up the one LD sealed the deal. He had a strong 2 innings starting a bullpen game the last day of the regular season, then pitched just an inning against the Yankees in the ALCS, even though Saberhagen and Kent Mercker had been pounded in their three starts against the Indians. There was no explanation for why they suddenly forgot about him. I remember thinking at the time that it made no sense.
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Post by jmei on Jun 30, 2016 20:51:58 GMT -5
From Speier's newsletter today:
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Post by jmei on Jul 2, 2016 17:55:56 GMT -5
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cfnn
Rookie
Posts: 7
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Post by cfnn on Jul 2, 2016 18:10:55 GMT -5
I would give the start to Elias or Owens over established crap like O'Sullivan.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 2, 2016 22:30:59 GMT -5
Over under for runs allowed, lets start at 7 for Sully
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Post by larrycook on Jul 2, 2016 22:37:57 GMT -5
O'sullivan throws mostly fastballs. Second time through the Angels lineup should be interesting.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,321
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Post by radiohix on Jul 3, 2016 5:06:04 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 4, 2016 10:57:21 GMT -5
Mike Antonellis @seadogsradio 18m18 minutes ago Brian Johnson pitching right now for the GCL Red Sox…happy to see him back.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 5, 2016 10:16:19 GMT -5
So, O'Sullivan probably gets the start on the 8th & they finish up the Tampa series with Porcello & Price. They need a 4th & 5th starter for the 23rd & 24th after coming back from the break. I hope Dombrowski makes a move for a Starting Pitcher for at least 1 of those starts.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 5, 2016 10:33:58 GMT -5
I'd settle for the Price that was promised.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,321
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Post by radiohix on Jul 5, 2016 12:06:09 GMT -5
I'd settle for the Price that was promised. Bravo!
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 5, 2016 14:14:01 GMT -5
That group of teams that are interested in rentals are curious. Seems that a few of them are not in serious contention & that they might actually be "sellers". I guess they are banking on having a real good month.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 8, 2016 13:19:19 GMT -5
How does Farrell set up the top 3 in the rotation after the break?
Porcello, Price, Wright?
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 9, 2016 18:14:15 GMT -5
“@ryanhannable: With O’Sullivan to DL, Clay Buchholz could be back in rotation after All-Star break.”
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 9, 2016 18:22:37 GMT -5
“@ryanhannable: With Brad Ziegler activated tomorrow, Sean O’Sullivan (knee tendinitis) to 15-day DL.”
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 9, 2016 18:50:31 GMT -5
“@ryanhannable: Sean O’Sullivan on knee: ”It’s something I’ve been battling since last April.“”
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 18, 2016 14:20:10 GMT -5
Benintendi, Bradley, Betts. That is our outfield for years to come. Losing Margot sucks but Kimbrel has been one of the most dominating closers in the past 10 years so it was worth every penny. Half a season doesn't define a player he will figure it out. I'm guessing he's been pitching injured so once he comes back look out. One more top 3 starter and this team is WS contending. You'll want to go back through this thread and read the arguments posters make - on both sides of the question. Those arguments revolve around the fungibility of relievers and the long-term value (quantified) of minor league talent and how to discount it. There are also peripheral issues of health and longevity for hard throwers. I'd also like your definition of a top three starter. By most measures the Sox currently have four of those, something Eric has pointed out. I think it's right to ask how much additional minor league talent the Sox should give up to acquire a fifth, and why they would want to do that. We probably have five #2 starters. When you eliminate E-Rod's two pitch-tipping starts last year (not even counting how brilliant he was before he got into the stretch and started tipping) and the two road day-game starts which were huge outliers and are easy to explain as the result of staying up too late, he was right on the borderline between 2 and 3 in terms of xFIP-, with 94. Now, factor in that his ERA- in those games was 44, and that some of that has to be real, and that he did that with an arsenal of 3 1/2 pitches on average, and he now has 5. The only way to argue that he's not now a 2 is to insist that the four games I'm excluding should count as predictive, even though he had an 18.00 ERA in them and a 1.86 ERA otherwise -- which is actually 33.75 versus 1.74 when you include the beginnings of the tip-pitching games. Porcello has been just over the good side of the 2/3 border now since his 2014 breakout, his bizarre 2015 dalliance with the 4-seamer as his primary pitch excluded. Price, Wright, and Pomeranz are all on the 1/2 border.
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Post by thursty on Jul 18, 2016 15:28:00 GMT -5
Yeah, if you take out all of a pitcher's poor games - look at that - he looks like a good pitcher. Look Mom, no hands!
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 18, 2016 15:56:24 GMT -5
Well, he did explain why he took out the bad games. Not that agree with his point anyway, I'd package E-Rod with Devers for a sensible upgrade in the rotation like tomorrow.
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