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5/3-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on May 3, 2016 22:05:41 GMT -5
BS check swing call....we probably would have lost anyways, but still hate to end the game on a call like that.
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Post by station13 on May 3, 2016 22:21:48 GMT -5
Umps are awful this early in the season.
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Post by mandelbro on May 3, 2016 23:09:54 GMT -5
Carson Smith is a bad man. So much movement on his sinking fastball.
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Post by mgoetze on May 4, 2016 2:44:17 GMT -5
Can't believe I'm going to defend Farrell here. But he's not done anything cringe-worthy of late. Bringing in Tazawa was a reasonable move. When you said "of late", you meant since the end of the 3rd inning, right? Intentional walks to load the bases are always cringe-worthy. Anyway, looks like Hanley's XBH-less streak is over.
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Post by kyla13 on May 4, 2016 7:23:35 GMT -5
Steven Wright with yet another stellar pitching performance. Five straight games of at least going 6 IP while giving up 2 runs or less. Not bad for someone pencilled in by most as just the Long Man in the bullpen before the start of the season.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,828
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Post by nomar on May 4, 2016 8:47:04 GMT -5
DRS and UZR have hated JBJ so far. Wonder if he's positioning himself differently this year. Something to keep an eye on.
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Post by okin15 on May 4, 2016 9:02:25 GMT -5
Let's hope that the Sox can get on track facing a second straight LHP tonight. Agree that the sample size is miniature, but 0-3 is still pretty bad, especially when it's been all about the offense not coming through in those situations (rather than losing a high-scoring game or something). I'm sure this will work itself out over the season, but it's an issue until they figure it out. I wonder if this new "opposite field approach" the Sox are taking plays less well against opposite-handed pitchers. Someone mentioned Betts flying weakly to RF, and someone else had another similar observation. Hitting will always be a cat-and-mouse game, and hopefully the Sox will adjust quickly, that's what makes hitters good.
As for Tazawa, it seems his confidence is shaken. He hasn't really pitched well this year, and also struggled the second half last year. He may have more confidence when he gets more rest, and with Smith back, giving him that time between appearances should be possible. Meant to add, I didn't have any issue with him coming in there, he has the track record that Barnes doesn't, but it's quite possible that their roles could flip-flop now. Or, if Taz can string together a few good outings, perhaps he is appetizing to another team in a trade. His lack of flexibility (cannot be demoted, and seems to have the opposite of a rubber arm) and only moderate effectiveness (over the last 10 months) may make him expendable.
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Post by bosox89 on May 4, 2016 9:09:05 GMT -5
Mookie, Pedey, X, Ortiz, Hanley and Shaw are a combined 14/83 against LHP with 1 walk this season. Danks would have been really nice to see tonight.
0-7 in Chris Young's starts and 0-5 in Buchholz's, hopefully those streaks come to an end tonight.
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Post by jmei on May 4, 2016 9:33:35 GMT -5
As for Tazawa, it seems his confidence is shaken. He hasn't really pitched well this year, and also struggled the second half last year. In 2016, Tazawa has a 2.70 ERA, 3.46 FIP and 3.25 SIERA. His peripherals (walk rate in particular) are a little worse compared to past years, but the overall package has been pretty much just as good. I think you're overreacting to one bad outing.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
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Post by radiohix on May 4, 2016 9:39:07 GMT -5
Let's hope that the Sox can get on track facing a second straight LHP tonight. Agree that the sample size is miniature, but 0-3 is still pretty bad, especially when it's been all about the offense not coming through in those situations (rather than losing a high-scoring game or something). I'm sure this will work itself out over the season, but it's an issue until they figure it out. I wonder if this new "opposite field approach" the Sox are taking plays less well against opposite-handed pitchers. Someone mentioned Betts flying weakly to RF, and someone else had another similar observation. Hitting will always be a cat-and-mouse game, and hopefully the Sox will adjust quickly, that's what makes hitters good. As for Tazawa, it seems his confidence is shaken. He hasn't really pitched well this year, and also struggled the second half last year. He may have more confidence when he gets more rest, and with Smith back, giving him that time between appearances should be possible. Meant to add, I didn't have any issue with him coming in there, he has the track record that Barnes doesn't, but it's quite possible that their roles could flip-flop now. Or, if Taz can string together a few good outings, perhaps he is appetizing to another team in a trade. His lack of flexibility (cannot be demoted, and seems to have the opposite of a rubber arm) and only moderate effectiveness (over the last 10 months) may make him expendable. C'mon man! He's been awesome so far this year and he didn't even pitch that bad last night (a bunt single, a double down the line on a pitcher pitch) and he's way better than Barnes IMO.
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Post by okin15 on May 4, 2016 11:09:41 GMT -5
As for Tazawa, it seems his confidence is shaken. He hasn't really pitched well this year, and also struggled the second half last year. In 2016, Tazawa has a 2.70 ERA, 3.46 FIP and 3.25 SIERA. His peripherals (walk rate in particular) are a little worse compared to past years, but the overall package has been pretty much just as good. I think you're overreacting to one bad outing. Well he's been terrible this year in the month of May. I think you're right that I'm overreacting. I was at the April 20 game where he walked a second batter in two nights, and then obviously he was bad in that second game of the season. Last night you can't say he wasn't that bad though Hix. He walked two guys and had some TERRIBLE pitches where he was nearly a foot above the zone. He was putrid last night, and it was worrisome. Given his cost, I still wouldn't mind a trade if they could get something useful for him. I think Barnes is coming around. Also, as I think I said, I fall on the side that Farrell used the right guy last night (at least in theory).
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Post by bosox81 on May 4, 2016 11:58:05 GMT -5
Can't believe I'm going to defend Farrell here. But he's not done anything cringe-worthy of late. Bringing in Tazawa was a reasonable move. When you said "of late", you meant since the end of the 3rd inning, right? Intentional walks to load the bases are always cringe-worthy. Anyway, looks like Hanley's XBH-less streak is over. The intentional walk was because the count was already 3-0 to the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. It is not completely unreasonable.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 4, 2016 12:02:23 GMT -5
DRS and UZR have hated JBJ so far. Wonder if he's positioning himself differently this year. Something to keep an eye on. Are these meaningful at all at this point?
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nomar
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Posts: 10,828
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Post by nomar on May 4, 2016 12:11:14 GMT -5
DRS and UZR have hated JBJ so far. Wonder if he's positioning himself differently this year. Something to keep an eye on. Are these meaningful at all at this point? It isn't a big sample size, with us barely above 20 games in. However, it is a bit concerning that they're both heavily against him. It isn't like Shaw, where UZR hated him but DRS liked him (both like him now). It reminds me of Fowler, who had horrible defensive stats, but really passed the eye test. The Cubs changed his position of and his stats totally took off. maybe JBJ made an inefficient change this offseason.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2016 12:25:25 GMT -5
This is Buchholz's 6th start of the season, and in his previous bad Aprils he's turned it around in his 7th (2011), 8th (2015), and 10th starts (2012; plus 2014 where he went through May getting hammered and went on the DL, and was OK but not great after his return). Folks should expect mediocre inconsistency tonight, not panic if that happens, and be very pleasantly surprised if he's sharp.
Looking a bit deeper, in 2011 and 2012 he had no good games during his struggles -- max games scores of 50 and 51, respectively.
In 2014 his 10 games before his DL stint had games score of 65 (start 6), plus 54, 53, and 52 in starts 2 through 5.
Last year was different. He was great in his first and 4th starts, 79 and 71, but otherwise quite bad. This year he had a 62 in his 3rd start.
The empirical rule of thumb is that he's whenever he's had back-to-back games with 58 or better game scores in April or May, that has meant he's turned back into himself. Of course that's also true in 2010 and 2013 when he started strongly, so it's essentially always been true (he never did it in 2014 until August).
And he's had just 4 starts of 58 or better in the 37 bad-April starts to date. Those were false hopes (in starts 1, 3, 4, and 6), and they actually outnumber the turned-it-around starts in 7, 8, and 10. If he has a good start tonight, I think it's a coin toss as to whether it's a turning point or a tease.
(Obviously, if you were doing this analysis for the team you'd be looking at much deeper numbers than game score, but I actually doubt the conclusion would be any different -- he has to get at least 10 starts before you go to a plan B.)
Meanwhile, Kelly is about to start his rehab. He would be ready at about the time you might decide to give Clay a phantom DL stint if he's still struggling.
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 4, 2016 12:45:50 GMT -5
Are these meaningful at all at this point? It isn't a big sample size, with us barely above 20 games in. However, it is a bit concerning that they're both heavily against him. It isn't like Shaw, where UZR hated him but DRS liked him (both like him now). It reminds me of Fowler, who had horrible defensive stats, but really passed the eye test. The Cubs changed his position of and his stats totally took off. maybe JBJ made an inefficient change this offseason. It'd be interesting to look at some game film and see where he's positioned.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,828
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Post by nomar on May 4, 2016 12:52:16 GMT -5
It isn't a big sample size, with us barely above 20 games in. However, it is a bit concerning that they're both heavily against him. It isn't like Shaw, where UZR hated him but DRS liked him (both like him now). It reminds me of Fowler, who had horrible defensive stats, but really passed the eye test. The Cubs changed his position of and his stats totally took off. maybe JBJ made an inefficient change this offseason. It'd be interesting to look at some game film and see where he's positioned. Yeah I know I wish I had a recorded game from last year and time to go through it. Something is off there though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2016 12:54:07 GMT -5
DRS and UZR have hated JBJ so far. Wonder if he's positioning himself differently this year. Something to keep an eye on. Are these meaningful at all at this point? When I did my big analysis of OF DRS numbers, one of the conclusions I reached was that folks have underestimated the amount of real variation and overestimated the required sample size before the numbers can be taken at face value without regression. In order to get the best Y2Y correlations, Plays Made needs no further regression to the mean after 1200 innings, or less than a full season. So the reason why you can't accurately judge a fielder until he's had 3 seasons is due to real Y2Y variation. (Arm and Good Fielding Plays took 2160 and 1600 innings, respectively.) The answer is that the numbers certainly indicate that JBJ has played surprisingly badly, but that has as little predictive power as Hanley's slow offensive start. As someone noted, he hasn't had a lot of chances to make great plays, and given that, a few uncharacteristic mistakes can give you a low DRS in a small sample.
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Post by deepjohn on May 4, 2016 14:25:06 GMT -5
This is Buchholz's 6th start of the season, and in his previous bad Aprils he's turned it around in his 7th (2011), 8th (2015), and 10th starts (2012; plus 2014 where he went through May getting hammered and went on the DL, and was OK but not great after his return). Folks should expect mediocre inconsistency tonight, not panic if that happens, and be very pleasantly surprised if he's sharp. Looking a bit deeper, in 2011 and 2012 he had no good games during his struggles -- max games scores of 50 and 51, respectively. In 2014 his 10 games before his DL stint had games score of 65 (start 6), plus 54, 53, and 52 in starts 2 through 5. Last year was different. He was great in his first and 4th starts, 79 and 71, but otherwise quite bad. This year he had a 62 in his 3rd start. The empirical rule of thumb is that he's whenever he's had back-to-back games with 58 or better game scores in April or May, that has meant he's turned back into himself. Of course that's also true in 2010 and 2013 when he started strongly, so it's essentially always been true (he never did it in 2014 until August). And he's had just 4 starts of 58 or better in the 37 bad-April starts to date. Those were false hopes (in starts 1, 3, 4, and 6), and they actually outnumber the turned-it-around starts in 7, 8, and 10. If he has a good start tonight, I think it's a coin toss as to whether it's a turning point or a tease. (Obviously, if you were doing this analysis for the team you'd be looking at much deeper numbers than game score, but I actually doubt the conclusion would be any different -- he has to get at least 10 starts before you go to a plan B.) Meanwhile, Kelly is about to start his rehab. He would be ready at about the time you might decide to give Clay a phantom DL stint if he's still struggling. eric, I sure hope you're right (again), and there is some mechanical flaw that Clay can fix. I just did a quick look at kwERA for the first 120 or so batters faced in April for years 2010 through 2015, and compared the year end results. I picked 120 batters faced in April because the stat "stabilizes" by now. Also because the idea was, is Clay Buchholz a slow starter in April? Batters faced in April April Year End Results ADD: May Onward TBF BB SO K%-BB% kwERA ERA FIP xFIP ERA FIP xFIP 2016 124 13 19 4.84% 4.82 2015 116 8 33 21.55% 2.81 3.26 2.68 3.3 2.55 2.69 3.42 2014 122 6 19 10.66% 4.12 5.34 4.01 4.04 5.10 3.92 4.07 2013 144 13 39 18.06% 3.23 1.74 2.78 3.41 2.04 3.01 3.63 2012 140 15 16 0.71% 5.31 4.56 4.65 4.43 3.82 4.25 4.26 2011 128 16 15 -0.78% 5.49 3.48 4.34 4.28 2.59 3.26 3.592010 106 9 22 12.26% 3.93 2.33 3.61 4.07 2.36 3.73 4.11 I used the Tom Tango formula for kwERA. (K%-BB%) Multiply it by 12. Subtract if from 5.4. www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/lego/I did not include GB% which also "stabilizes" by now and looks worse this year than it ever has been. TL/DR: the year end results look to be correlated to the kwERA in April, and this year's kwERA in April might predict that Buchholz will be a bit better than average, maybe a #4, but not a #2 or #3 pitcher. Conclusion: Rodriquez and Owens could outpitch him. I wonder how Clay would do out of the bullpen?
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 4, 2016 14:26:32 GMT -5
... Anyway, looks like Hanley's XBH-less streak is over. The dude just about put a hole in the left field wall in Fenway with a shot that would easily have gone out of a dozen ballparks. We should stop looking at where he ends up (no surprise it was first base given the carom) and look at the hit itself. He's also had multiple liners that found their way into gloves which is nothing more than random luck. He's fine.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2016 14:57:53 GMT -5
This is Buchholz's 6th start of the season, and in his previous bad Aprils he's turned it around in his 7th (2011), 8th (2015), and 10th starts (2012; plus 2014 where he went through May getting hammered and went on the DL, and was OK but not great after his return). Folks should expect mediocre inconsistency tonight, not panic if that happens, and be very pleasantly surprised if he's sharp. Looking a bit deeper, in 2011 and 2012 he had no good games during his struggles -- max games scores of 50 and 51, respectively. In 2014 his 10 games before his DL stint had games score of 65 (start 6), plus 54, 53, and 52 in starts 2 through 5. Last year was different. He was great in his first and 4th starts, 79 and 71, but otherwise quite bad. This year he had a 62 in his 3rd start. The empirical rule of thumb is that he's whenever he's had back-to-back games with 58 or better game scores in April or May, that has meant he's turned back into himself. Of course that's also true in 2010 and 2013 when he started strongly, so it's essentially always been true (he never did it in 2014 until August). And he's had just 4 starts of 58 or better in the 37 bad-April starts to date. Those were false hopes (in starts 1, 3, 4, and 6), and they actually outnumber the turned-it-around starts in 7, 8, and 10. If he has a good start tonight, I think it's a coin toss as to whether it's a turning point or a tease. (Obviously, if you were doing this analysis for the team you'd be looking at much deeper numbers than game score, but I actually doubt the conclusion would be any different -- he has to get at least 10 starts before you go to a plan B.) Meanwhile, Kelly is about to start his rehab. He would be ready at about the time you might decide to give Clay a phantom DL stint if he's still struggling. eric, I sure hope you're right (again), and there is some mechanical flaw that Clay can fix. I just did a quick look at kwERA for the first 120 or so batters faced in April for years 2010 through 2015, and compared the year end results. I picked 120 batters faced in April because the stat "stabilizes" by now. Also because the idea was, is Clay Buchholz a slow starter in April? Batters faced in April April Year End Results TBF BB SO K%-BB% kwERA ERA FIP xFIP 2016 124 13 19 4.84% 4.82 2015 116 8 33 21.55% 2.81 3.26 2.68 3.3 2014 122 6 19 10.66% 4.12 5.34 4.01 4.04 2013 144 13 39 18.06% 3.23 1.74 2.78 3.41 2012 140 15 16 0.71% 5.31 4.56 4.65 4.43 2011 128 16 15 -0.78% 5.49 3.48 4.34 4.28 2010 106 9 22 12.26% 3.93 2.33 3.61 4.07 I used the Tom Tango formula for kwERA. (K%-BB%) Multiply it by 12. Subtract if from 5.4. www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/lego/I did not include GB% which also "stabilizes" by now and looks worse this year than it ever has been. TL/DR: the year end results look to be correlated to the kwERA in April, and this year's kwERA in April might predict that Buchholz will be a bit better than average, maybe a #4, but not a #2 or #3 pitcher. Conclusion: Rodriquez and Owens could outpitch him. I wonder how Clay would do out of the bullpen? 1) You can't look at year-end averages as the dependent variable. After this bad start, he may well end up with weak #3 starter stats ( 3 / 4 borderline is average) if he gets hurt in July and never pitches after that. But that would be because he was a #1 from mid-May to the injury. That's what happened in 2011. You have to use May onward instead of full-year. 2) Clay is one of the handful of SPs for whom numbers that remove hardness of contact are least useful. He has a legitimate ability to limit hard contact, which seems to be independent of his ability to command the strike zone. You can divide his career into what seem to be empirically derived distinct stretches and plot xFIP- versus Hard% for each stretch, and almost all of the stretches fall on one of two trendlines. The main trendline passes through xFIP- = 100 at a .275 Hard% (MLB average is about .300), and the other trendline at about .340. In 2011, he had his best success by limiting K-BB; he got hit quite a bit harder when he maximized that, then dialed it back a bit (nibbled more) and had his BABIP plummet, with the net trade-off quite positive. So I don't think KwERA works at all as the sole measure of his Aprils.
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Post by deepjohn on May 4, 2016 15:14:37 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on May 4, 2016 15:37:36 GMT -5
Just saw this on Twitter, didn't bother to check, but great small sample theater:
Red Sox are 0-7 when Chris Young starts.
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Post by deepjohn on May 4, 2016 15:39:15 GMT -5
Just saw this on Twitter, didn't bother to check, but great small sample theater: Red Sox are 0-7 when Chris Young starts. Call up Benintendi! That will fix it! (that's going to be my fix for everything, until they actually do call him up.)
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Post by hanleyramirez22 on May 4, 2016 15:50:33 GMT -5
Hey guys new to the sight long time sox fan the names stew. Let's go sox!
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