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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 15:44:39 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 15:56:26 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 6, 2016 16:09:14 GMT -5
You can also see here, that batters slug highest in exactly the region of the zone that, looking at his pitch%, he avoids. He's not getting calls, nor is he locating his pitches well enough to get them. To clarify what I wrote earlier, he mentioned after last night's game that he wasn't hitting his spots though he felt the pitches were good ones. He's interesting in that he refuses to put the ball into the fat part of the plate unless he feels he's ready to do that, but he's not good enough to nibble those edges - yet. He's stubborn about this, completely unwilling to give in to hitters even as he builds a walk-driven conga-line around the bases.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2016 16:13:24 GMT -5
You can also see here, that batters slug highest in exactly the region of the zone that, looking at his pitch%, he avoids. He's not getting calls, nor is he locating his pitches well enough to get them. To clarify what I wrote earlier, he mentioned after last night's game that he wasn't hitting his spots though he felt the pitches were good ones. He's interesting in that he refuses to put the ball into the fat part of the plate unless he feels he's ready to do that, but he's not good enough to nibble those edges - yet. He's stubborn about this, completely unwilling to give in to hitters even as he builds a walk-driven conga-line around the bases. That's probably the right approach. Almost no mlb pitcher has ever been successful throwing pitches right down the middle. That only works for knuckleball pitchers.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 16:15:04 GMT -5
Owens has pitched few enough innings this season that smoothed heatmaps are slightly misleading (buckets with zero pitches in them create issues when combined with smoothing). If you include his 2015 innings, it's a fairly typical zone% with lots of pitches in the middle of the zone and a fairly typical called strike heatmap. ADD: alternatively, if you turn off smoothing, you won't see much of a pattern.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,335
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Post by radiohix on May 6, 2016 16:24:19 GMT -5
To clarify what I wrote earlier, he mentioned after last night's game that he wasn't hitting his spots though he felt the pitches were good ones. He's interesting in that he refuses to put the ball into the fat part of the plate unless he feels he's ready to do that, but he's not good enough to nibble those edges - yet. He's stubborn about this, completely unwilling to give in to hitters even as he builds a walk-driven conga-line around the bases. That's probably the right approach. Almost no mlb pitcher has ever been successful throwing pitches right down the middle. That only works for knuckleball pitchers. His command/control are so bad that aiming for the fat part of the plate is maybe the solution to his problems
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 17:26:46 GMT -5
Owens has pitched few enough innings this season that smoothed heatmaps are slightly misleading (buckets with zero pitches in them create issues when combined with smoothing). If you include his 2015 innings, it's a fairly typical zone% with lots of pitches in the middle of the zone and a fairly typical called strike heatmap. ADD: alternatively, if you turn off smoothing, you won't see much of a pattern. Yeah, the SSS issue this year is very relevant. I agree re: the 2015 data, with the caveat that I think he's probably being encouraged to pitch to certain areas, and/or adjusting his approach, which won't show up until more data are available. I didn't turn off smoothing, so that's a valid point, for sure. And while I also can't argue with the control data you related, I do think it's important to differentiate between a pitcher who is truly "wild", like Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan were early in their careers, and pitchers who rack up walks due to poor command at the edges of the zone (early-career Lee or Glavine, Lester in his first year, Matsuzaka, etc.). I think Owens's pattern in the minors is telling--poor control in Greenvile, then much better walk rates until he hit AAA, then an improvement there before struggling again in MLB. I think that there is a cohort of pitchers whose weaknesses (especially lack of FB "stuff" and/or command) predispose them to nibbling when faced with superior hitters, and it takes them some time to adjust their approach/refine their command, to be able to both avoid getting shelled while still getting the ball over the plate. I'm of the mind that not all "wildness" problems are the same, and that Owens's issue may be that he's trying to work the edges without the requisite control/command to do so, compounded by getting squeezed by umpires. It's certainly evident that the strike zone is demonstrably smaller this year, especially at the bottom of the zone, where a changeup pitcher like Owens needs to work.
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