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How do you improve the Red Sox
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 9:36:03 GMT -5
Out of their non-Price/Wright/Porcello starting pitchers, they've gotten 145.1 IP of 7.38 ERA baseball. That is impossibly, unsustainably bad. If they merely upgrade those two spots to a run-of-the-mill-bad 5.00 ERA, that's an extra 3+ wins, and they'd be a game and a half back.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2016 9:36:27 GMT -5
btw, I wonder where all the people went who were ripping on a few of us about a month ago who were calling for some significant changes and their retort was basically: "What's wrong with you!? This is a first place team with a historic offense!" This can go on all year, every year. There's no point. Teams have good streaks and bad streaks. Agreed but my big concern was the runs allowed and that "hot" offenses almost always cool down.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2016 9:37:26 GMT -5
Out of their non-Price/Wright/Porcello starting pitchers, they've gotten 145.1 IP of 7.38 ERA baseball. That is impossibly, unsustainably bad. If they merely upgrade those two spots to a run-of-the-mill-bad 5.00 ERA, that's an extra 3+ wins, and they'd be a game and a half back. How does this contracts with 2014 & 15 with regard to their 4/5 pitchers?
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 9:47:28 GMT -5
Out of their non-Price/Wright/Porcello starting pitchers, they've gotten 145.1 IP of 7.38 ERA baseball. That is impossibly, unsustainably bad. If they merely upgrade those two spots to a run-of-the-mill-bad 5.00 ERA, that's an extra 3+ wins, and they'd be a game and a half back. How does this contracts with 2014 & 15 with regard to their 4/5 pitchers? They did not have a single starting pitcher in either 2014 or 2015 with an ERA as bad as the collective ERA of their fourth and fifth starters this year. Justin Masterson, who is as bad a starting pitcher as exists in recent memory, had a 6.14 ERA last year. ADD: league-wide, there has not been a qualified starting pitcher with an ERA that high this century, and probably never (I got tired of clicking through pages). Again: impossibly bad.
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Post by thursty on Jun 28, 2016 10:08:33 GMT -5
How does this contracts with 2014 & 15 with regard to their 4/5 pitchers? They did not have a single starting pitcher in either 2014 or 2015 with an ERA as bad as the collective ERA of their fourth and fifth starters this year. Justin Masterson, who is as bad a starting pitcher as exists in recent memory, had a 6.14 ERA last year. ADD: league-wide, there has not been a qualified starting pitcher with an ERA that high this century, and probably never (I got tired of clicking through pages). Again: impossibly bad. But there's an obvious selection bias there; such a terrible performance is possible if you keep rolling out the same culprits.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 10:12:00 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 28, 2016 10:16:04 GMT -5
Is James Shields still available?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 28, 2016 10:21:01 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? Is that really the relevant question? You just pointed out that it is historically bad. The question is do you want to keep running them out there or do you find alternate's outside the system? The internal options have been vetted (except Wilkerson), if we are looking for improvement, it most likely will have to come in the form of a trade.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 10:30:16 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? Is that really the relevant question? You just pointed out that it is historically bad. The question is do you want to keep running them out there or do you find alternate's outside the system? The internal options have been vetted (except Wilkerson), if we are looking for improvement, it most likely will have to come in the form of a trade. It's certainly a relevant question. Do you think those pitchers will continue to be that bad? Almost certainly not. As always, it's a question of (a) how good are your internal options going forward and (b) how much does it cost to upgrade those internal options via trade, and is the trade cost worth the upgrade.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 28, 2016 10:39:04 GMT -5
Buchholz is pretty much broken. His fastball is awful. I think he should be DL'd. I don't think this is his true talent level, but things won't just get better by continuing to throw him out there. We'll lose more than we have to by following that strategy.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 28, 2016 10:43:24 GMT -5
Is that really the relevant question? You just pointed out that it is historically bad. The question is do you want to keep running them out there or do you find alternate's outside the system? The internal options have been vetted (except Wilkerson), if we are looking for improvement, it most likely will have to come in the form of a trade. It's certainly a relevant question. Do you think those pitchers will continue to be that bad? Almost certainly not. As always, it's a question of (a) how good are your internal options going forward and (b) how much does it cost to upgrade those internal options via trade, and is the trade cost worth the upgrade. Exactly. But your true talent question was purposely farcical. There comes a point where expecting the internal options to change/regress becomes a redundant excercise, particularly when you include a pitcher's confidence as a variable. If your interest is winning this year, I believe the options outside the system needs to be more vigorously explored...as DD has already referenced has been done.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 28, 2016 10:49:48 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? No. But why, for the last three years, do the Red Sox pitchers seem to enter these death spirals that they never get out of until they are hurt or demoted or shut down? The pitchers aren't this bad individually, but when such a diverse group of pitchers underperform both their peripherals and their scouting profiles for such a long time then it seems to me that something else isn't working. EDIT: And you know that I'm not a type to come out screaming that the sky is falling. I think the Red Sox would likely make the playoffs with minor upgrades to the pitching staff. But it just seems to me to be more than luck that so many pitchers the last couple of years have been so much worse than their projections without any physical/injury issues.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 28, 2016 11:00:50 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? No, I think Erod can bounce back. Put probably not before the Sox have to decide if they are buyers or sellers this year. I think Clay B is about what he's shown so far, about a 6 era guy who won't miss enough bats to go more than 5 most starts.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 28, 2016 11:07:25 GMT -5
If anything, I think it will make them more desperate. They're not "punting" their third straight season willingly. If so they are risking punting the next 5. The Red Sox have a top-three payroll, five outstanding prospects, and two of the best half-dozen under-25 players in baseball... but deciding not to punt and trade... I dunno, Junichi Tazawa?... will lead to them missing out on a five year window of competitiveness. Come on guys. EDIT: Right now the Red Sox have a .539 winning percentage, which works out to about an 87-win team. What's wonderful is that, unlike most 87-win teams, the Red Sox have these huge, awful, gaping holes on their roster. That may seem like a bad thing - and if not addressed, it obviously is. But most 87-win teams are pretty good top to bottom, and have to rely on incremental improvements to claw forward toward 90. The ability to improve on, say, a 1.5 WAR position to a 2.5 WAR is tough, because the availability of 2.5 WAR players is pretty limited. But the Red Sox can improve simply by getting replacement-level performance from the fourth and fifth starters, and getting a 2+ WAR pitcher would be a huge upgrade.
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Post by bnich on Jun 28, 2016 11:11:39 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? No, but at the same time sending the same guys out there that have failed and now sport these unbelievably high ERA's has to weigh on the team and line up when they do take the mound. It didn't just happen once, it's happened all season. I'd imagine the offense already feels they're in a hole when those pitchers take the mound.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 28, 2016 11:35:06 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? With our 4 & 5 slots doing so poorly, I (may be wrong here) sense that it is going to affect Price, Steven & Rick. It puts so much more pressure on them knowing they have to go 7 or 8 innings due to the BP being maxed out. Look at the last time through the rotation. It works like our offense when they are constantly down early. It could have been just the Texas thing. We'll see how Rick does tonight, because, again he is going to be asked to deep.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2016 12:13:16 GMT -5
This can go on all year, every year. There's no point. Teams have good streaks and bad streaks. Agreed but my big concern was the runs allowed and that "hot" offenses almost always cool down. And cold pitchers almost always get better.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 13:35:53 GMT -5
It's certainly a relevant question. Do you think those pitchers will continue to be that bad? Almost certainly not. As always, it's a question of (a) how good are your internal options going forward and (b) how much does it cost to upgrade those internal options via trade, and is the trade cost worth the upgrade. Exactly. But your true talent question was purposely farcical. There comes a point where expecting the internal options to change/regress becomes a redundant excercise, particularly when you include a pitcher's confidence as a variable. If your interest is winning this year, I believe the options outside the system needs to be more vigorously explored...as DD has already referenced has been done. With the possible exception of Rodriguez, who looks to be having pitch tipping issues again, I don't think we're at that point yet. I certainly think Buchholz is likely to pitch better going forward than he has so far, and the same is likely true of Owens and Kelly. Even Rodriguez is fixable. Considering that they're not going to make a trade immediately, that's cause for (slight) optimism.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 13:43:27 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? No. But why, for the last three years, do the Red Sox pitchers seem to enter these death spirals that they never get out of until they are hurt or demoted or shut down? The pitchers aren't this bad individually, but when such a diverse group of pitchers underperform both their peripherals and their scouting profiles for such a long time then it seems to me that something else isn't working. EDIT: And you know that I'm not a type to come out screaming that the sky is falling. I think the Red Sox would likely make the playoffs with minor upgrades to the pitching staff. But it just seems to me to be more than luck that so many pitchers the last couple of years have been so much worse than their projections without any physical/injury issues. Plenty of Red Sox pitchers have come out of bad stretches in recent history (whether with the aid of a demotion/injury or otherwise). Price this year, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez last year, Buchholz and (post-trade) Peavy in 2014. I'm not saying they shouldn't look into trades. I'm saying that whether they do so or not, their back-end pitching is unlikely to continue to be as bad as it has been so far. This team is still very likely to be a playoff contender through the fall, and the panic and overreaction is unwarranted.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2016 14:01:05 GMT -5
Well someone better step up soon or DD is going to acquire a starter and most people are going to hate the cost.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 28, 2016 14:04:04 GMT -5
I have a couple of questions for anyone.
1) what is your opinion of Carl Willis and the job he is doing? 2) has anyone heard anything about the health or time table for Brian Johnson?
I usually don't think too much about individual coaches, but what is happening to the members of our rotation so far is quite unbelievable. Until this season, Jim Hickey the pitching coach of the Rays has been consistently turning out one solid contributor after another.
Even looking at David Price, there seems to be something missing. Is it their routines? Is it their pitch selection? Is it their catchers?
I have never seen David Price look like this. That by itself is really worrisome. What changed? When you look at the whole staff, few pitchers have exceeded expectation and most have failed to be close! Yes Steven Wright has pitched well. Do any of you believe Willis had a lot to do with that? I think Hembree has shown solid improvement. Who else? OK, how about in AAA? Anyone making a positive jump? The answer is actually they have regressed. Willis does not have much to do with Owens, Johnson, etc. other than in Spring Training, but is the point(s) getting across?
Maybe Willis is not a problem. Maybe Farrell is not the problem. Maybe our staff is over-rated heading into this season.
Take Buchholz (please!), we have seen him screwed up before.....but never to this extent. He is totally healthy! Maybe that's the problem. And one last thing, our so-called "pitching guru" needs to start earning his money also. Where is that guy?
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Post by thursty on Jun 28, 2016 14:06:33 GMT -5
I'm curious what Hazen and the rest of the holdovers will do if DD does some Teheran for Benintendi+ trade. Having had their advice (which so far has proven sage) ignored in the infamous rocking-chair closer trade, how could they in good conscience stay on?
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 28, 2016 14:14:03 GMT -5
Well someone better step up soon or DD is going to acquire a starter and most people are going to hate the cost. I think this is right on. DD is not going to keep forfeiting 2 out of 5 starts. He will make a move that most here will hate.
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Post by deepjohn on Jun 28, 2016 14:20:04 GMT -5
Do you think any of the starting pitchers they have run out there this year are true-talent 7.38 ERA pitchers? No. But why, for the last three years, do the Red Sox pitchers seem to enter these death spirals that they never get out of until they are hurt or demoted or shut down? The pitchers aren't this bad individually, but when such a diverse group of pitchers underperform both their peripherals and their scouting profiles for such a long time then it seems to me that something else isn't working. EDIT: And you know that I'm not a type to come out screaming that the sky is falling. I think the Red Sox would likely make the playoffs with minor upgrades to the pitching staff. But it just seems to me to be more than luck that so many pitchers the last couple of years have been so much worse than their projections without any physical/injury issues. Whether the pitchers are, or aren't, showing true talent simply has very little to do with the issue, because the short-term measure of value looking backward is clearly not predictive of a pitcher's expected performance going forward. The real issue is that, because they performed the way they did (and it could be for many so far unknown reasons), now there is a reasonably good chance that they will perform in the second half of the year about the same as they performed in the first. No, there isn't enough data to calculate the chance with confidence, but we can be sure that there is a chance, and pretty sure that there is even a cause (that we may never know). Telling yourself a lie about non-predictive backward-looking measures of value is really just a head-in-the-sand approach, a kind of "hindsight is 20/20" view that you can afford to take when you don't have your job (or anything else) on the line if you're wrong. The Sox situation is simple: 1) Trade for Teheran (the only substantial upgrade available) from among Moncada/Benny/Swihart (the only cost-controlled MLB-ready talent the Braves need, assuming the three B's and Shaw are off-limits). 2) Take the chance that the same pitching failures continue to happen when you don't have any good basis to predict they won't, or any explanation of how to fix the cause. Or 3) Take Bill James' idea and go to a threee man starting rotation.
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Post by thursty on Jun 28, 2016 14:24:28 GMT -5
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