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possible Red Sox and Braves blockbuster
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 14:27:38 GMT -5
The fact that Cameron and Longenhagen and others don't think Teheran can sustain his first-half ERA doesn't mean they aren't "objective" (even with the scare quotes). In fact, as national baseball analysts, they're almost certainly more objective than some random forum poster who has spent the past three weeks trying to convince the posters of SoxProspects.com that Julio Teheran is an ace. Haha! Beat me to it.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 12, 2016 14:31:26 GMT -5
You guys are clear (clearer than I am). Teheran's not an ace. DDo won't be stupid enough to trade for him as such.
Now, let's see how the story plays out ...
Personally, I desperately hope you're right, and DDo does not trade Top 5 for him.* I love myself my fav prospects. Already have my Benny Baseball gear!
But I just like to tell the story from all sides. I dunno, it just seems more interesting.
*If he trades Kopech for Teheran, jmei sets my profile pic to troll!
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 12, 2016 14:54:47 GMT -5
Regardless, even if this wholly fanciful and entirely fabricated (and I do get the impression at this point that it's trolling) idea of a bidding war does, by virtue of some bizarre three-shutout post--All Star performance, happen, I doubt DD is dumb enough to get suckered into it. The point of the bidding war was to suggest that if the Sox had acquired the Teheran asset (oops, there are those "if's" again), and if his ace status then became undeniable (oops, dang it again), the Sox would at that point have an extremely valuable asset. And if they flipped that asset (ok, note to self, find another word that means the same as "if"), could be the beneficiaries of the bidding war.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 16:03:56 GMT -5
And if Teheran turns into Buchholz version 2016 because he starts getting nervous about throwing strikes because every mistake starts getting hit off or over the Green Monster?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 20:42:40 GMT -5
Regardless, even if this wholly fanciful and entirely fabricated (and I do get the impression at this point that it's trolling) idea of a bidding war does, by virtue of some bizarre three-shutout post--All Star performance, happen, I doubt DD is dumb enough to get suckered into it. The point of the bidding war was to suggest that if the Sox had acquired the Teheran asset (oops, there are those "if's" again), and if his ace status then became undeniable (oops, dang it again), the Sox would at that point have an extremely valuable asset. And if they flipped that asset (ok, note to self, find another word that means the same as "if"), could be the beneficiaries of the bidding war. Unlikely to outrageous hypotheticals are detracting from, rather than adding to, the conversation. My sense is that talking about them is only fun for you. It's not about you using "if," it's about using it in reference to the pitching equivalent of alchemy.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 20:44:06 GMT -5
And if Teheran turns into Buchholz version 2016 because he starts getting nervous about throwing strikes because every mistake starts getting hit off or over the Green Monster? Hopefully we're all laughing because he's doing it as a member of the visiting Orioles or Blue Jays.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 20:46:04 GMT -5
And if Teheran turns into Buchholz version 2016 because he starts getting nervous about throwing strikes because every mistake starts getting hit off or over the Green Monster? Hopefully we're all laughing because he's doing it as a member of the visiting Orioles or Blue Jays. unfortunately, I think this scenario is happening a lot recently for Red Sox pitchers.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 21:29:59 GMT -5
Hopefully we're all laughing because he's doing it as a member of the visiting Orioles or Blue Jays. unfortunately, I think this scenario is happening a lot recently for Red Sox pitchers. Well, their 1-2-3 is probably in the top 5 in baseball, or at least is likely to be at the end of the season. That's a 12-14 WAR top 3 if Price pitches to his peripherals in the second half, and Wright and Porcello stay steady. Porcello's actually just coming off of a stretch of not-so-good-but-not-so-bad-you-throw-stuff-at-the-TV, so he may be a second-half low-3 FIP guy. The 4/5 are the killers. But a 7.3 ERA for what amounts to a full season from those spots is just ridiculous. It's not reflective of true talent level. It's historically bad. I just don't see it continuing. So even if they don't trade for *anyone*, I think they'll be better in the second half. Personally, I'd still like to see them get Gray, Paxton, Walker...some guy to plug into the 4/5 spot who has TOR potential. I'm less enamored of the sort of mid-level guys like Pomeranz (who I actually like a bit), or Teheran (who I really don't). At that cost, I think it's best to go 1/2-year relatively cheap rental and be done with it.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 1:16:44 GMT -5
The point of the bidding war was to suggest that if the Sox had acquired the Teheran asset (oops, there are those "if's" again), and if his ace status then became undeniable (oops, dang it again), the Sox would at that point have an extremely valuable asset. And if they flipped that asset (ok, note to self, find another word that means the same as "if"), could be the beneficiaries of the bidding war. Unlikely to outrageous hypotheticals are detracting from, rather than adding to, the conversation. My sense is that talking about them is only fun for you. It's not about you using "if," it's about using it in reference to the pitching equivalent of alchemy. I hope it's so obvious it goes without saying that if the Sox trade for Teheran on the belief that he is an ace, and they're right and he does become an ace, and likely wins a game or two in the World Series, then Teheran's stock would take a meteoric rise. It's a little like trading for Kimbrel after the down year he had last year, learning that he had a knee weakness, having it surgically repaired, and then having Kimbrel return to the epic form he has had in most of his appearances this year, when the knee wasn't bothering him. Unlikely? if you say so. But outrageous? Coming back from 3-0 in the playoffs when behind in the 9th inning of game 4 with Rivera pitching. That's outrageous.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 13, 2016 11:47:02 GMT -5
My only concern is while we're seeing if any of our guys step up, Balt &/or Toronto grabs Hill or even Teheran & goes all in this year. For all 3 teams, a decent SP may put us/them over the top.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 13, 2016 11:56:45 GMT -5
My only concern is while we're seeing if any of our guys step up, Balt &/or Toronto grabs Hill or even Teheran & goes all in this year. For all 3 teams, a decent SP may put us/them over the top. Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 12:31:56 GMT -5
The fact that Cameron and Longenhagen and others don't think Teheran can sustain his first-half ERA doesn't mean they aren't "objective" (even with the scare quotes). In fact, as national baseball analysts, they're almost certainly more objective than some random forum poster who has spent the past three weeks trying to convince the posters of SoxProspects.com that Julio Teheran is an ace. Haha! Beat me to it. My point is, that to be objective, whenever you have a pitcher who is radically outperforming his projection, you should look at it, with fresh eyes, to see if it might be real. ericmvan does this all the time. He's brilliant at it. There could be many unobserved variables, including player psychology or proprioception mechanics, that make the new data more predictive than the old. I think you knew this, and were just distracted by ad hominen beatings against random forum posters. I imagine the beatings do improve morale. So let the beatings continue until morale improves!
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 12:36:15 GMT -5
My only concern is while we're seeing if any of our guys step up, Balt &/or Toronto grabs Hill or even Teheran & goes all in this year. For all 3 teams, a decent SP may put us/them over the top. Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace?
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2016 12:48:25 GMT -5
Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? Oh my lord this is exhausting. Are you Teheran's agent? Man this thread makes me wish the deadline would pass so I don't have to hear about Pedro Koufax Teheran for awhile. Why is this so difficult? He's having a very good year. He has stranded a ton of runners. Kind of what Buchholz did in 2013. The BABIP against him is really low. Doesn't mean that there isn't some skill there, but it's not like he's some extreme ground ball pitcher routinely piling up the easy ground balls to 2b. He has struggled mightily against the big lineups of the AL East and is likely a #2/#3 type who certainly isn't worth giving up any of the top four or five prospects for. It is very fair to question how effective he would be pitching half his games at Fenway and pitching a lot of games against the Jays, Orioles, and Yankees. What I don't understand deepjohn is the incessant need to keep touting him as the ace the Sox need for like 100 plus posts. I get it. You think he's an ace, and you are very much in the minority here. That's fine - it's not like this is a poll or anything that matters - you don't have to agree with the majority point of view (I go against it myself sometimes), but I swear - next thing I know every time he even throws a called strike or gets a batter to swing and miss, we'll be able to count on getting another post from you extolling his virtues. The most likely scenario is that Teheran stays put. The Dbacks are out of contention so they won't be able to be dumb enough to go after him the way they did for Shelby Miller. Nobody else is stupid enough to pay the ridiculous price that Atlanta has put out there for Teheran, so this will wind up being a lot to do about absolutely nothing.
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Post by soxhuskies on Jul 13, 2016 12:52:37 GMT -5
My only concern is while we're seeing if any of our guys step up, Balt &/or Toronto grabs Hill or even Teheran & goes all in this year. For all 3 teams, a decent SP may put us/them over the top. Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to The Sox have a better system by far but that does not mean they would be willing to give up comparable talent that Baltimore or Toronto may be inclined to trade. I took a look at the most recent BA top 100 to see where TOR & BAL's top guys were: 84. Sean-Reid Foley Blue Jays - RHP 85. Chance Sisco Orioles - C 86. Anthony Alford Blue Jays - OF 90. Conner Greene Blue Jays - RHP 93. Michael Kopech Red Sox - RHP So their top prospects are comparable to our 5th best. Would you be willing to give up Kopech for Hill? Build a package around Kopech for Teheran? I don't know if I would. The point being, while the Sox have a clear prospect advantage over division rivals because of Moncada/Benintendi/Devers/Espinonza that does not necessarily mean they can outbid the Orioles or Blue Jays. Given the past few years and current talent I think the Blue Jays would currently have the advantage of adding a TOR arm compared to the Red Sox or O's.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 13, 2016 12:53:50 GMT -5
Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? Pitching a clean inning in the all star game does not all of a sudden make somebody an ace. To even suggest that it does is ridiculous in my mind. A real ace would have struck out the side on 9 pitches!
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 13, 2016 14:05:32 GMT -5
Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? When I saw that perfect inning by Pedro Koufax Terheran (I like that name) I quickly thought of this:
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 14:31:32 GMT -5
My point is, that to be objective, whenever you have a pitcher who is radically outperforming his projection, you should look at it, with fresh eyes, to see if it might be real. ericmvan does this all the time. He's brilliant at it. There could be many unobserved variables, including player psychology or proprioception mechanics, that make the new data more predictive than the old. I think you knew this, and were just distracted by ad hominen beatings against random forum posters. I imagine the beatings do improve morale. So let the beatings continue until morale improves! If you can find an ad hominem attack that I've perpetrated, I'd be shocked. That's not how I roll. I know plenty of intelligent people who believe stupid things. They're not one in the same. However, I will certainly comment on what I see as a stupid belief or behavior. That said, it's very easy to see if the sort of leap in performance you refer to is "real" or not. And it's in the data. New velocity, location, pitch mix, etc. You talk about proprioception...I'm presuming you're referring to a sudden ability to spin a curve exceptionally, or make a minor delivery tweak (James Paxton dropped his arm slot, slightly changing his landing, and gained 3 mph...'course that shows up as improved velocity...), or something of the "feel" nature. Teheran, on the other hand, 1) had a BABIP near .200. That's just not sustainable for one season, let alone several. 2) his strand rate was well over 80%. Also unsustainable. 3) He pitches in the worst offensive division in baseball. So there you have it, three outstanding explanations, that when combined, tell one very clearly why Teheran's numbers look(ed) so good, but he was pretty much the same pitcher. I chafe at the lack of skepticism, or reflection on data. It's not as egregious as saying Sandy Leon is a breakout offensive star, but it's not all that different, either.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 14:35:27 GMT -5
Yea but the concerns on Teheran apply to every other AL East team except Tampa Bay, and they're not in the race. As regards Hill, I think he's a much better trade target with a likely lower ask, and we should be able to put together a more appealing package than either Toronto or Baltimore because I think we have a better farm system, or at least we seemed to be widely considered to Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? Why are you trolling? Seriously, just stop. One inning?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 14:43:01 GMT -5
Unlikely to outrageous hypotheticals are detracting from, rather than adding to, the conversation. My sense is that talking about them is only fun for you. It's not about you using "if," it's about using it in reference to the pitching equivalent of alchemy. I hope it's so obvious it goes without saying that if the Sox trade for Teheran on the belief that he is an ace, and they're right and he does become an ace, and likely wins a game or two in the World Series, then Teheran's stock would take a meteoric rise. It's a little like trading for Kimbrel after the down year he had last year, learning that he had a knee weakness, having it surgically repaired, and then having Kimbrel return to the epic form he has had in most of his appearances this year, when the knee wasn't bothering him. Unlikely? if you say so. But outrageous? Coming back from 3-0 in the playoffs when behind in the 9th inning of game 4 with Rivera pitching. That's outrageous. Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? Oh my lord this is exhausting. Are you Teheran's agent? Man this thread makes me wish the deadline would pass so I don't have to hear about Pedro Koufax Teheran for awhile. Why is this so difficult? He's having a very good year. He has stranded a ton of runners. Kind of what Buchholz did in 2013. The BABIP against him is really low. Doesn't mean that there isn't some skill there, but it's not like he's some extreme ground ball pitcher routinely piling up the easy ground balls to 2b. He has struggled mightily against the big lineups of the AL East and is likely a #2/#3 type who certainly isn't worth giving up any of the top four or five prospects for. It is very fair to question how effective he would be pitching half his games at Fenway and pitching a lot of games against the Jays, Orioles, and Yankees. What I don't understand deepjohn is the incessant need to keep touting him as the ace the Sox need for like 100 plus posts. I get it. You think he's an ace, and you are very much in the minority here. That's fine - it's not like this is a poll or anything that matters - you don't have to agree with the majority point of view (I go against it myself sometimes), but I swear - next thing I know every time he even throws a called strike or gets a batter to swing and miss, we'll be able to count on getting another post from you extolling his virtues. The most likely scenario is that Teheran stays put. The Dbacks are out of contention so they won't be able to be dumb enough to go after him the way they did for Shelby Miller. Nobody else is stupid enough to pay the ridiculous price that Atlanta has put out there for Teheran, so this will wind up being a lot to do about absolutely nothing. Yeah, the incessant posts on every minor detail (except, you know, those two recent shellings) is just incredibly juvenile. It's like a buddy I have who's bipolar. When he got manic, he would want attention, and he'd just sit there, poking me in the arm and repeating my nickname over and over until he got a response. He could do it for hours.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 14:44:48 GMT -5
Well, girls and guys, can we do a quick poll about Teheran's perfect inning in the All Star game? 12 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs. He was ahead 1-2 on all three, and got an Encarnacion pop-up, a Lindor short fly, and then Machado flied out to the warning track. Ace? or no ace? When I saw that perfect inning by Pedro Koufax Terheran (I like that name) I quickly thought of this: Thanks. I needed that.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 14:57:21 GMT -5
My point is, that to be objective, whenever you have a pitcher who is radically outperforming his projection, you should look at it, with fresh eyes, to see if it might be real. ericmvan does this all the time. He's brilliant at it. There could be many unobserved variables, including player psychology or proprioception mechanics, that make the new data more predictive than the old. I think you knew this, and were just distracted by ad hominen beatings against random forum posters. I imagine the beatings do improve morale. So let the beatings continue until morale improves! If you can find an ad hominem attack that I've perpetrated, I'd be shocked. That's not how I roll. I know plenty of intelligent people who believe stupid things. They're not one in the same. However, I will certainly comment on what I see as a stupid belief or behavior. That said, it's very easy to see if the sort of leap in performance you refer to is "real" or not. And it's in the data. New velocity, location, pitch mix, etc. You talk about proprioception...I'm presuming you're referring to a sudden ability to spin a curve exceptionally, or make a minor delivery tweak (James Paxton dropped his arm slot, slightly changing his landing, and gained 3 mph...'course that shows up as improved velocity...), or something of the "feel" nature. Teheran, on the other hand, 1) had a BABIP near .200. That's just not sustainable for one season, let alone several. 2) his strand rate was well over 80%. Also unsustainable. 3) He pitches in the worst offensive division in baseball. So there you have it, three outstanding explanations, that when combined, tell one very clearly why Teheran's numbers look(ed) so good, but he was pretty much the same pitcher. I chafe at the lack of skepticism, or reflection on data. It's not as egregious as saying Sandy Leon is a breakout offensive star, but it's not all that different, either. Teheran has been an undisputed ace against righties (30%Ks/27% K-BB). That's not up for debate. I actually ignore any disagreement about it. It isn't worth the time to respond to. The problem was, last year, that he was being lit up by lefties. But this year he's getting lefties out with mostly popups and short flyballs. What's so great about popups and short flyballs? Those are actually more likely to be outs than ground balls are, which is why his BABIP is so low. Also, his strand rate is good because runners can't score on popups and short flyballs. Why so much better against lefties this year? He found the command of his changeup, which let him reduce the use of his 2 seam sinker, and sets up his 4 seam fastball. An analogy here is Clay Buchholz, who can be two completely different pitchers against lefties, depending on whether he can command his wipeout changeup as he did last year, when he was an ace. Or whether he can't, as he hasn't so far this year, leading to disaster. If Buch could get the command of his changeup back, then he would again become the ace he was last year. That would be the same as trading for Teheran, but without giving up anything in return. So let's go Buch, before Aug. 1!
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 15:00:55 GMT -5
If you can find an ad hominem attack that I've perpetrated, I'd be shocked. That's not how I roll. I know plenty of intelligent people who believe stupid things. They're not one in the same. However, I will certainly comment on what I see as a stupid belief or behavior. That said, it's very easy to see if the sort of leap in performance you refer to is "real" or not. And it's in the data. New velocity, location, pitch mix, etc. You talk about proprioception...I'm presuming you're referring to a sudden ability to spin a curve exceptionally, or make a minor delivery tweak (James Paxton dropped his arm slot, slightly changing his landing, and gained 3 mph...'course that shows up as improved velocity...), or something of the "feel" nature. Teheran, on the other hand, 1) had a BABIP near .200. That's just not sustainable for one season, let alone several. 2) his strand rate was well over 80%. Also unsustainable. 3) He pitches in the worst offensive division in baseball. So there you have it, three outstanding explanations, that when combined, tell one very clearly why Teheran's numbers look(ed) so good, but he was pretty much the same pitcher. I chafe at the lack of skepticism, or reflection on data. It's not as egregious as saying Sandy Leon is a breakout offensive star, but it's not all that different, either. Teheran has been an undisputed ace against righties (30%Ks/27% K-BB). That's not up for debate. I actually ignore any disagreement about it. It isn't worth the time to respond to. The problem was, last year, that he was being lit up by lefties. But this year he's getting lefties out with mostly popups and short flyballs. What's so great about popups and short flyballs? Those are actually more likely to be outs than ground balls are, which is why his BABIP is so low. Also, his strand rate is low because runners can't score on popups and short flyballs. Why so much better against lefties this year? He found the command of his changeup, which let him reduce the use of his 2 seam sinker, and sets up his 4 seam fastball. An analogy here is Clay Buchholz, who can be two completely different pitchers against lefties, depending on whether he can command his wipeout changeup as he did last year, when he was an ace. Or whether he can't, as he hasn't so far this year, leading to disaster. If Buch could get his changeup back, then he would again become the ace he was last year. That would be the same as trading for Teheran, but without giving up anything in return. So let's go Buch, before Aug. 1! Well, we can at least agree that a Buchholz Renaissance is about the best thing that could happen between now and midnight of the 31st.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2016 15:08:39 GMT -5
Teheran's splits vs. LHB this season:
.200 BABIP, 7.6% K-BB%, 5.51 xFIP, 6.4% IFFB%, 48.1% FB%
Yeah, he's really turned it around. That screams true talent .200 BABIP pitcher.
Also keep in mind that Fenway forces pitchers to pitch differently so it could be even worse than that. And a lot of short flyballs are doubles.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 15:39:16 GMT -5
Teheran's splits vs. LHB this season: .200 BABIP, 7.6% K-BB%, 5.51 xFIP, 6.4% IFFB%, 48.1% FB% Yeah, he's really turned it around. That screams true talent .200 BABIP pitcher. Also keep in mind that Fenway forces pitchers to pitch differently so it could be even worse than that. And a lot of short flyballs are doubles. The explanation is that it's command against lefties that's the difference. Teheran against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.73 BB% 11.1% 2016: WHIP 1.07 BB% 8.5% Buchholz against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.03 BB% 3.2% 2016: WHIP 2.04 BB% 14.6%
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