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possible Red Sox and Braves blockbuster
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 7, 2016 21:01:08 GMT -5
Daves kind of an open book on Trades he also gets what he wants ...I would be shocked if Tehran wasn't in tow with a teammate in the bull very soon . How does the first part equate to the 2nd part?
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 7, 2016 21:02:13 GMT -5
90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. I don't agree and either does Dave ....the guys not Porch he's a legitimate top of the rotation guy ...with a Price ,Tehran ,Wright playoff rotation that seems pretty legit ...The guys an All star Well all I'm going to say is that you're 100% wrong by saying he's a TOR guy and every GM in baseball would agree.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 7, 2016 21:03:45 GMT -5
I suggested that one of the SoxProspects writers could ask the Sox to confirm, as a scoop. You might get a no comment, but you won't get a denial. You stated they have or had a deal. How do you know this? Don't tell me you asked Soxprospects to ask but they may get a no comment. That's not an answer. As far as I can tell you're just making stuff up. You've been pushing for this deal for Tehran, and now resorting to making up trade proposals as facts. I think it goes without saying that team sources can't be named? Teams don't like leaks and someone might be chastised or worse. But it's on the record, and if the Sox pull the trigger, you'll be able to see it's accurate. I put more info on the other options in the trade in a post that jmei moved to the trade proposal subforum.
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Post by libertine on Jul 7, 2016 21:10:08 GMT -5
This thread is developing a sports talk radio vibe...
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 7, 2016 21:12:14 GMT -5
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Jul 7, 2016 21:18:36 GMT -5
You stated they have or had a deal. How do you know this? Don't tell me you asked Soxprospects to ask but they may get a no comment. That's not an answer. As far as I can tell you're just making stuff up. You've been pushing for this deal for Tehran, and now resorting to making up trade proposals as facts. I think it goes without saying that team sources can't be named? Teams don't like leaks and someone might be chastised or worse. But it's on the record, and if the Sox pull the trigger, you'll be able to see it's accurate. I put more info on the other options in the trade in a post that jmei moved to the trade proposal subforum. DJ- I'm not sure what you're saying: 1) The Braves have offered Tehran and asked for the three you mentioned or 2) The Sox have made this offer. If it's the first, who cares? They can ask for whomever they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen. If it's the second, why haven't the Braves taken it? If I were in the Braves front office, it'd literally take me a few seconds to agree to that. The fact that you say "if the Sox pull the trigger" suggests it's the first. Am I missing something?
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 7, 2016 21:25:08 GMT -5
What would "on the record mean" in this context?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 7, 2016 21:25:58 GMT -5
This thread is developing a sports talk radio vibe... I think that's what happens when there isn't a game going on and a gamethread to absorb a lot of the posts and spill out into other threads.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 7, 2016 21:27:16 GMT -5
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 7, 2016 21:31:05 GMT -5
I think it goes without saying that team sources can't be named? Teams don't like leaks and someone might be chastised or worse. But it's on the record, and if the Sox pull the trigger, you'll be able to see it's accurate. I put more info on the other options in the trade in a post that jmei moved to the trade proposal subforum. DJ- I'm not sure what you're saying: 1) The Braves have offered Tehran and asked for the three you mentioned or 2) The Sox have made this offer. If it's the first, who cares? They can ask for whomever they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen. If it's the second, why haven't the Braves taken it? If I were in the Braves front office, it'd literally take me a few seconds to agree to that. The fact that you say "if the Sox pull the trigger" suggests it's the first. Am I missing something? This is what the Braves proposed, after having the discussion with DDo. Basically, teams may use an excess value estimate as a way of getting to a dealpoint quickly, after having removed options that are dealbreakers. Here, I would guess DDo opened the conversation with, DDo: We want to do a prospects-only deal for Teheran plus bullpen. Can we make that work? Coppy (GM for Braves): yes, if we can get $107M in excess value back (for Teheran). Is Shaw a deal-breaker? DDo: we might be able to make Shaw available. And so on. If other teams are calling on Teheran, they are probably being asked for MLB players, not prospects. Braves would like to be a winning team next year, when they open their new stadium.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 7, 2016 21:39:28 GMT -5
90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. I don't agree and either does Dave ....the guys not Porch he's a legitimate top of the rotation guy ...with a Price ,Tehran ,Wright playoff rotation that seems pretty legit ...The guys an All star No, he's not. He's a good #3, some years maybe an OK 2. In Fenway, as an extreme flyball pitcher, he would likely struggle. He's also got a career ERA over 5 against AL teams. Scott Cooper was an All-Star, too.
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Jul 7, 2016 21:39:34 GMT -5
DJ- I'm not sure what you're saying: 1) The Braves have offered Tehran and asked for the three you mentioned or 2) The Sox have made this offer. If it's the first, who cares? They can ask for whomever they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen. If it's the second, why haven't the Braves taken it? If I were in the Braves front office, it'd literally take me a few seconds to agree to that. The fact that you say "if the Sox pull the trigger" suggests it's the first. Am I missing something? This is what the Braves proposed, after having the discussion with DDo. Basically, teams may use an excess value estimate as a way of getting to a dealpoint quickly, after having removed options that are dealbreakers. Here, I would guess DDo opened the conversation with, DDo: We want to do a prospects-only deal for Teheran plus bullpen. Can we make that work? Coppy (GM for Braves): yes, if we can get $107M in excess value back (for Teheran). Is Shaw a deal-breaker? DDo: we might be able to make Shaw available. And so on. If other teams are calling on Teheran, they are probably being asked for MLB players, not prospects. Braves would like to be a winning team next year, when they open their new stadium. Ahh, gotcha! Thanks for clearing that up for me.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 7, 2016 21:45:35 GMT -5
90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. This year, he's been striking out a ton of righties (30%K, 27% K-BB). Since reducing his use of the sinker, he's also been death on lefties this year (.173 BABIP). T his year, Teheran is one of the top 15 or so pitchers. At 25 he is also one of the youngest, and has 5.5 years remaining on his contract (for $38M). The Sox have a deal in place for Teheran (or at least last week, had a deal) where one of their options is Moncada/ Shaw/Devers. Coincidence? We'll see.... That would be an absolutely horrendous trade. Teheran's not remotely worth Moncada, and really probably isn't worth Devers.
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Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2016 22:06:20 GMT -5
To be fair, Teheran's signed thought 2019 for a total of $28m guaranteed, with a team option for 2020 for $11m (that's 4.5 years of team control, by the way, not 5.5). If you think he's a three win player, at a $/WAR of $8m, that's $56m in excess value without the option and close to $70m with the option. That's a pretty valuable asset-- certainly worth Devers, and probably worth Moncada (though not much more than that).
Of course, a three win projection requires you to assume that Teheran's FIP-beating skills are sustainable and that he makes a reasonably smooth transition to the AL. Those assumptions are certainly contestable.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 7, 2016 22:54:19 GMT -5
To be fair, Teheran's signed thought 2019 for a total of $28m guaranteed, with a team option for 2020 for $11m (that's 4.5 years of team control, by the way, not 5.5). If you think he's a three win player, at a $/WAR of $8m, that's $56m in excess value without the option and close to $70m with the option. That's a pretty valuable asset-- certainly worth Devers, and probably worth Moncada (though not much more than that). Of course, a three win projection requires you to assume that Teheran's FIP-beating skills are sustainable and that he makes a reasonably smooth transition to the AL. Those assumptions are certainly contestable. Yes, pretty close to what I heard. If the Braves are saying they want $107M in excess value, then that would place Teheran in the top 30 of pitchers at 4 WAR/$8M per WAR ( plus minus the $38M left on the 4.5 year contract+option). So using PointofPittsburgh numbers just for simplicity and round numbers, Moncada might be be around 48M, Devers around $38M and the third player around $21M.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 0:23:23 GMT -5
To be fair, Teheran's signed thought 2019 for a total of $28m guaranteed, with a team option for 2020 for $11m (that's 4.5 years of team control, by the way, not 5.5). If you think he's a three win player, at a $/WAR of $8m, that's $56m in excess value without the option and close to $70m with the option. That's a pretty valuable asset-- certainly worth Devers, and probably worth Moncada (though not much more than that). Of course, a three win projection requires you to assume that Teheran's FIP-beating skills are sustainable and that he makes a reasonably smooth transition to the AL. Those assumptions are certainly contestable. Except the calculus isn't that simple. For one, they have $63M invested in Moncada, meaning that if he isn't the source of recouping that investment, whoever he's traded for has to be. Secondly, that presumes that a viable alternative can't be obtained/developed who makes up some of that difference. And losing Devers and Moncada means the team will be required to sign players to fill their spots, presumably at third/first/DH and third/OF. It also affects their depth at the corner INF and OF positions, meaning utility players need to be signed/traded for to fill those spots. And I've already addressed my concerns regarding Teheran's pitching style, how sustainable his BABIP (pop-up) skill is, and what an extreme flyball pitcher would experience in Fenway (using deepjohn's overlay, an increase in OPS against of about 50 points, which is to say nothing of the MUCH better hitting in the AL East versus the NL East, which has three of the weakest offenses in baseball). I think Teheran's an OK pitcher, but his performance this year is dependent on terrible opponents and BABIP and strand luck. Moncada alone is probably less than a year away, and with his skillset is probably worth 1-2 WAR his first year, and 2-3 for the next two. If say that's a fair (low) median projection. That's 5-8 WAR of excess value in his first three years ($38-$62M) on a conservative estimate. Both prospects are position players, too, meaning a much lower injury risk. And Teheran's career ERA against the AL is over 5. Beyond that, Moncada has given every indication of being a future superstar. There are some guys you just don't bet against, particularly when your team has been very good at developing position players.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 0:34:44 GMT -5
To be fair, Teheran's signed thought 2019 for a total of $28m guaranteed, with a team option for 2020 for $11m (that's 4.5 years of team control, by the way, not 5.5). If you think he's a three win player, at a $/WAR of $8m, that's $56m in excess value without the option and close to $70m with the option. That's a pretty valuable asset-- certainly worth Devers, and probably worth Moncada (though not much more than that). Of course, a three win projection requires you to assume that Teheran's FIP-beating skills are sustainable and that he makes a reasonably smooth transition to the AL. Those assumptions are certainly contestable. Yes, pretty close to what I heard. If the Braves are saying they want $107M in excess value, then that would place Teheran in the top 30 of pitchers at 4 WAR/$8M per WAR ( plus minus the $38M left on the 4.5 year contract+option). So using PointofPittsburgh numbers just for simplicity and round numbers, Moncada might be be around 48M, Devers around $38M and the third player around $21M. And that requires one to believe that, playing half of his games in Fenway, and almost 70% in parks that are poor matches for his style (including Camden, Rogers, and the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium), he's going to be a 4-WAR pitcher. I think that's *highly* unlikely. I think he's more likely to Shelby Miller than that. Maybe 2-3.5 WAR/yr, depending on the year. It's easy enough to find a 2-WAR pitcher without giving up the farm. Get Hellickson or Jimmy Nelson, or Tyler Chatwood, and save your best prospects.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 8, 2016 1:34:49 GMT -5
Yes, pretty close to what I heard. If the Braves are saying they want $107M in excess value, then that would place Teheran in the top 30 of pitchers at 4 WAR/$8M per WAR ( plus minus the $38M left on the 4.5 year contract+option). So using PointofPittsburgh numbers just for simplicity and round numbers, Moncada might be be around 48M, Devers around $38M and the third player around $21M. And that requires one to believe that, playing half of his games in Fenway, and almost 70% in parks that are poor matches for his style (including Camden, Rogers, and the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium), he's going to be a 4-WAR pitcher. I think that's *highly* unlikely. I think he's more likely to Shelby Miller than that. Maybe 2-3.5 WAR/yr, depending on the year. It's easy enough to find a 2-WAR pitcher without giving up the farm. Get Hellickson or Jimmy Nelson, or Tyler Chatwood, and save your best prospects. Well, the idea is that Teheran is worth $107M in excess value to the Braves. So the Sox need to give them $107M in excess value back (or not do the trade). The excess value analysis is not very complicated, which is why it helps to get deals done quickly. Maybe too quickly, if you would prefer that there be no deal at all.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2016 8:32:31 GMT -5
DJ- I'm not sure what you're saying: 1) The Braves have offered Tehran and asked for the three you mentioned or 2) The Sox have made this offer. If it's the first, who cares? They can ask for whomever they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen. If it's the second, why haven't the Braves taken it? If I were in the Braves front office, it'd literally take me a few seconds to agree to that. The fact that you say "if the Sox pull the trigger" suggests it's the first. Am I missing something? This is what the Braves proposed, after having the discussion with DDo. Basically, teams may use an excess value estimate as a way of getting to a dealpoint quickly, after having removed options that are dealbreakers. Here, I would guess DDo opened the conversation with, DDo: We want to do a prospects-only deal for Teheran plus bullpen. Can we make that work? Coppy (GM for Braves): yes, if we can get $107M in excess value back (for Teheran). Is Shaw a deal-breaker? DDo: we might be able to make Shaw available. And so on. If other teams are calling on Teheran, they are probably being asked for MLB players, not prospects. Braves would like to be a winning team next year, when they open their new stadium. So they have a "deal in place" yet it hasn't happened. Which says to me that there is no deal in place.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2016 8:44:47 GMT -5
I don't believe there is a deal in place.
What deepjohn likely means is that the teams have discussed general parameters for a deal and BOS understands what ATL wants in order to get a deal done. Then, if BOS wants to do the deal, they can go back to ATL at any time in the future and close a deal quickly.
Teams do this all the time, and many times no trade is made.
In this case, we know that Frank Wren has scouted Teheran and other ATL players, and he has likely advised Dombrowski of the merits of trading for Teheran. Beyond that, I am not prepared to sign off on deepjohn's analysis of the situation or of the alleged "ask" by ATL.
According to Jon Heyman, Teheran has been told by ATL management that he's not being traded.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2016 8:51:34 GMT -5
I don't believe there is a deal in place. What deepjohn likely means is that the teams have discussed general parameters for a deal and BOS understands what ATL wants in order to get a deal done. Then, if BOS wants to do the deal, they can go back to ATL at any time in the future and close a deal quickly. Teams do this all the time, and many times no trade is made. In this case, we know that Frank Wren has scouted Teheran and other ATL players, and he has likely advised Dombrowski of the merits of trading for Teheran. Beyond that, I am not prepared to sign off on deepjohn's analysis of the situation or of the alleged "ask" by ATL. According to Jon Heyman, Teheran has been told by ATL management that he's not being traded. Well yeah, Boston knows what it would take and they haven't accepted because it's probably absurd. If it wasn't absurd, they probably would have actually agreed to it.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 8:53:13 GMT -5
And that requires one to believe that, playing half of his games in Fenway, and almost 70% in parks that are poor matches for his style (including Camden, Rogers, and the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium), he's going to be a 4-WAR pitcher. I think that's *highly* unlikely. I think he's more likely to Shelby Miller than that. Maybe 2-3.5 WAR/yr, depending on the year. It's easy enough to find a 2-WAR pitcher without giving up the farm. Get Hellickson or Jimmy Nelson, or Tyler Chatwood, and save your best prospects. Well, the idea is that Teheran is worth $107M in excess value to the Braves. So the Sox need to give them $107M in excess value back (or not do the trade). The excess value analysis is not very complicated, which is why it helps to get deals done quickly. Maybe too quickly, if you would prefer that there be no deal at all. Right, I'm saying that the calculation that says Teheran is worth $107M in excess value to the Braves, over the next 4.5 years, is awfully optimistic. It presupposes a lot of things, including the continued sheer incompetence of the offenses of the Mets and Phillies. It presumes no injuries, no down years, and no regression of Teheran's pop-up skill. Now, those might all happen. But him producing that performance in Fenway? That's just ridiculous. There are a litany of clear obstacles to that that I've already mentioned.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 8:58:12 GMT -5
Basically, I think Teheran is worth a lot more to the Braves than he would be to the Sox, by nature of their ballparks/divisions and his pitching style.
Which is why I hope they had a good chuckle at the Braves' ask, and walked out the door with no intention of ever revisiting that conversation again.
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Post by jdb on Jul 8, 2016 9:04:24 GMT -5
Teherans contract makes him valuable but I agree with the crowd that he wouldn't be near the pitcher in the AL as he is now which is still a solid 2-3 only. Smaller parks, deeper lineups and not being able to strike out the pitcher twice a game would put him more of a 3-4 in the AL in my mind. Deepjohn can talk value all he wants but nobody besides him thinks that value would carry over to the AL. The big chips would be off the table for me and I'd have a hard time adding a smaller secondary piece with Shaw to get Teheran. Shaw has an extra year of control and actually has a higher FWar this year.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 9:27:37 GMT -5
Teherans contract makes him valuable but I agree with the crowd that he wouldn't be near the pitcher in the AL as he is now which is still a solid 2-3 only. Smaller parks, deeper lineups and not being able to strike out the pitcher twice a game would put him more of a 3-4 in the AL in my mind. Deepjohn can talk value all he wants but nobody besides him thinks that value would carry over to the AL. The big chips would be off the table for me and I'd have a hard time adding a smaller secondary piece with Shaw to get Teheran. Shaw has an extra year of control and actually has a higher FWar this year. Exactly. Not to mention, he's more or less a known commodity against division competition, he's suited for Fenway in every way that Teheran isn't, and he carries lower injury risk as a position player.
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