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possible Red Sox and Braves blockbuster
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Post by jayhawk on Jul 2, 2016 8:29:38 GMT -5
Yes, but buying low implies the Sox would be paying less than they would for an ace pitcher. Offering Benintendi, Moncada and additional pieces is exactly what it would cost to get a true ace like Sale and Fernandez. By definition then that's not buying low, that's paying market rate. When you factor in the risk of Teheran not, in fact, being an ace-quality pitcher in the AL you go from market rate to overpaying very quickly. I don't have any information about what the price is for Sale or Fernandez, but if I hear anything I'll let you know. It isn't plausible to say that the price would be the same as it is for Teheran, since nobody else is bidding the price up for Teheran. Other teams would be bidding like crazy for Sale and Fernandez if they were made available, and the bidding war would start with actual MLB players, not prospects only. Think Bogie, Betts, Bradley maybe. Prospect only deals are relatively rare for a reason, not many teams are willing to assume that much risk. I don't think it's fair to assume the process for trading for Teheran would be that much different than the process of trading for Sale or Fernandez. If we play it out logically, then I agree... there may be less bidders and the price may be lower for Teheran but I see that as a function of Teheran being a less attractive trade target. The lower price doesn't mean the Sox would be buying low... it just means they're paying less for a lesser player. I can think of very few players where this package would constitute a low-cost acquisition: Moncada plus Brian Johnson or Michael Kopech or Travis Shaw, plus Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 2, 2016 10:13:55 GMT -5
If Tehran becomes Pedro Martinez and if the Red Sox believe he will and if all of the prospects bust and if the Red Sox believe they will all bust, it's a no-brainer to trade the entire farm system for Tehran. That's the summary.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 12:09:22 GMT -5
I don't have any information about what the price is for Sale or Fernandez, but if I hear anything I'll let you know. It isn't plausible to say that the price would be the same as it is for Teheran, since nobody else is bidding the price up for Teheran. Other teams would be bidding like crazy for Sale and Fernandez if they were made available, and the bidding war would start with actual MLB players, not prospects only. Think Bogie, Betts, Bradley maybe. Prospect only deals are relatively rare for a reason, not many teams are willing to assume that much risk. I don't think it's fair to assume the process for trading for Teheran would be that much different than the process of trading for Sale or Fernandez. If we play it out logically, then I agree... there may be less bidders and the price may be lower for Teheran but I see that as a function of Teheran being a less attractive trade target. The lower price doesn't mean the Sox would be buying low... it just means they're paying less for a lesser player. I can think of very few players where this package would constitute a low-cost acquisition: Moncada plus Brian Johnson or Michael Kopech or Travis Shaw, plus Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. To reduce the transaction time of the deal, teams may agree to use the notion of excess or surplus value in the contract. NOTE: this does not account for how the deal later turns out, but just simply how the deal looks at the time of the trade. Teheran has a very high excess value on his contract, even as a #2 he is +107 Million. Thus the Braves should expect more in a deal. If a bidding war started, and Teheran was valued at more than $120 million, a deal should look something like: Red Sox: Blake Swihart plus Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi. Astros: Preston Tucker plus Alex Bregman and AJ Reed. Dodgers: Joc Peterson plus Jose De Leon and Austin Barnes. Yankees: Gary Sanchez plus Aaron Judge and Domingo Acevedo. Cubs: Javier Baez plus Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Rangers: Nomar Mazara plus Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson. Diamondbacks: Jean Segura plus Braden Shipley and Socrites Britto. Pirates: Sterling Marte plus Josh Bell and Austin Meadows. Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout. Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado. Interesting side note: You'll see people ask on this forum, what would it take to get Mike Trout? Using excess value as an arbiter, as teams typically do, it would take Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi .... or Teheran (assuming he continues to play up). Just to spell it out a little, if the Sox trade for Teheran, and he continues to play up, then they could trade his excess value for that of Trout or Machado.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 12:23:31 GMT -5
If Tehran becomes Pedro Martinez and if the Red Sox believe he will and if all of the prospects bust and if the Red Sox believe they will all bust, it's a no-brainer to trade the entire farm system for Tehran. That's the summary. loveyou dude. Yo funny as Sh$$!
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 2, 2016 12:43:41 GMT -5
I don't think it's fair to assume the process for trading for Teheran would be that much different than the process of trading for Sale or Fernandez. If we play it out logically, then I agree... there may be less bidders and the price may be lower for Teheran but I see that as a function of Teheran being a less attractive trade target. The lower price doesn't mean the Sox would be buying low... it just means they're paying less for a lesser player. I can think of very few players where this package would constitute a low-cost acquisition: Moncada plus Brian Johnson or Michael Kopech or Travis Shaw, plus Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. To reduce the transaction time of the deal, teams may agree to use the notion of excess or surplus value in the contract. NOTE: this does not account for how the deal later turns out, but just simply how the deal looks at the time of the trade. Teheran has a very high excess value on his contract, even as a #2 he is +107 Million. Thus the Braves should expect more in a deal. If a bidding war started, and Teheran was valued at more than $120 million, a deal should look something like: Red Sox: Blake Swihart plus Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi. Astros: Preston Tucker plus Alex Bregman and AJ Reed. Dodgers: Joc Peterson plus Jose De Leon and Austin Barnes. Yankees: Gary Sanchez plus Aaron Judge and Domingo Acevedo. Cubs: Javier Baez plus Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Rangers: Nomar Mazara plus Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson. Diamondbacks: Jean Segura plus Braden Shipley and Socrites Britto. Pirates: Sterling Marte plus Josh Bell and Austin Meadows. Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout. Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado. Interesting side note: You'll see people ask on this forum, what would it take to get Mike Trout? Using excess value as an arbiter, as teams typically do, it would take Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi .... or Teheran (assuming he continues to play up). Just to spell it out a little, if the Sox trade for Teheran, and he continues to play up, then they could trade his excess value for that of Trout or Machado. LMAO, so Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Domingo Acevedo = Mike Trout or Manny Machado or Teheran. I wouldn't trade Moncada for all 3 Yankee prospects, lol.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 12:54:44 GMT -5
To reduce the transaction time of the deal, teams may agree to use the notion of excess or surplus value in the contract. NOTE: this does not account for how the deal later turns out, but just simply how the deal looks at the time of the trade. Teheran has a very high excess value on his contract, even as a #2 he is +107 Million. Thus the Braves should expect more in a deal. If a bidding war started, and Teheran was valued at more than $120 million, a deal should look something like: Red Sox: Blake Swihart plus Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi. Astros: Preston Tucker plus Alex Bregman and AJ Reed. Dodgers: Joc Peterson plus Jose De Leon and Austin Barnes. Yankees: Gary Sanchez plus Aaron Judge and Domingo Acevedo. Cubs: Javier Baez plus Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Rangers: Nomar Mazara plus Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson. Diamondbacks: Jean Segura plus Braden Shipley and Socrites Britto. Pirates: Sterling Marte plus Josh Bell and Austin Meadows. Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout. Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado. Interesting side note: You'll see people ask on this forum, what would it take to get Mike Trout? Using excess value as an arbiter, as teams typically do, it would take Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi .... or Teheran (assuming he continues to play up). Just to spell it out a little, if the Sox trade for Teheran, and he continues to play up, then they could trade his excess value for that of Trout or Machado. LMAO, so Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Domingo Acevedo = Mike Trout or Manny Machado or Teheran. I wouldn't trade Moncada for all 3 Yankee prospects, lol. This method uses excess or surplus value in the contract only as an arbiter of "fairness". Whether the team actually does the trade will depend on other factors, like positional need and competitive cycles. For example, the Braves might trade Teheran now because he is actually hurting them by being too good at a time when they need to tank, and two years of excess value is being wasted. If the Sox need excess value at a certain crucial position now, to make a run at the World Series, they should (rationally) be willing to trade prospects to acquire it, understanding that they can always flip the asset they acquire later if their needs change.
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Post by rafael on Jul 2, 2016 13:09:39 GMT -5
No, Teheran is not as valuable as Trout and will never be. Your arguments in this thread weren't good in the beginning and right now they are flat out insane.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 13:14:17 GMT -5
No, Teheran is not as valuable as Trout and will never be. Your arguments in this thread weren't good in the beginning and right now they are flat out insane. Excess value in a contract is very different from "good." If a player is a massive superstar being paid for every bit of his value, then the player (or the player's contract) has an excess value of 0. That doesn't mean the player is any less good.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 2, 2016 13:42:31 GMT -5
No, Teheran is not as valuable as Trout and will never be. Your arguments in this thread weren't good in the beginning and right now they are flat out insane. Excess value in a contract is very different from "good." If a player is a massive superstar being paid for every bit of his value, then the player (or the player's contract) has an excess value of 0. That doesn't mean the player is any less good. Trout might make a lot more than Teheran, but he also a lot better player. Trout still has way more excess value than Teheran. Show me some numbers to back up your claim my friend.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 15:10:01 GMT -5
Excess value in a contract is very different from "good." If a player is a massive superstar being paid for every bit of his value, then the player (or the player's contract) has an excess value of 0. That doesn't mean the player is any less good. Trout might make a lot more than Teheran, but he also a lot better player. Trout still has way more excess value than Teheran. Show me some numbers to back up your claim my friend. Yeah, to be a little more precise, if Trout is a +8 WAR player for the remaining 4.5 years, and he's owed $130 M for 4.5 years, then I think he might have an excess value of $86M, at $6M per WAR. But obviously, there's room to play with those numbers. Trout might be worth 9 WAR per year, or a WAR might be 7M, and so on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 2, 2016 19:55:15 GMT -5
Trout might make a lot more than Teheran, but he also a lot better player. Trout still has way more excess value than Teheran. Show me some numbers to back up your claim my friend. Yeah, to be a little more precise, if Trout is a +8 WAR player for the remaining 4.5 years, and he's owed $130 M for 4.5 years, then I think he might have an excess value of $86M, at $6M per WAR. But obviously, there's room to play with those numbers. Trout might be worth 9 WAR per year, or a WAR might be 7M, and so on. So you project Trout's WARs to go down from his current levels and for Teheran to average a lot more than he has, makes perfect sense, not! You get Trout's younger than Teheran right? Also current price of WAR is like 8 million, maybe slightly more. 6 million is from like two years ago. You don't play with numbers you use same tools to project both players WAR going forward and current price of WAR and get your results.
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Post by rafael on Jul 2, 2016 20:34:53 GMT -5
No, Teheran is not as valuable as Trout and will never be. Your arguments in this thread weren't good in the beginning and right now they are flat out insane. Excess value in a contract is very different from "good." If a player is a massive superstar being paid for every bit of his value, then the player (or the player's contract) has an excess value of 0. That doesn't mean the player is any less good. I know what you meant by excess value. What I was saying was that the excess value you calculated for Teheran is completely wrong. You assume he will be an ace going forward when he isn't even pitching like an ace right now. He is just being lucky. Expect heavy regression to the mean going forward. You seem to understand about advanced stats but you blatantly ignore them when it doesn't fit your line of thinking. Poster after poster showed why dealing multiple top prospects would be a disaster in the long-term and you still haven't conceded any point in this thread.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 21:18:42 GMT -5
Yeah, to be a little more precise, if Trout is a +8 WAR player for the remaining 4.5 years, and he's owed $130 M for 4.5 years, then I think he might have an excess value of $86M, at $6M per WAR. But obviously, there's room to play with those numbers. Trout might be worth 9 WAR per year, or a WAR might be 7M, and so on. So you project Trout's WARs to go down from his current levels and for Teheran to average a lot more than he has, makes perfect sense, not! You get Trout's younger than Teheran right? Also current price of WAR is like 8 million, maybe slightly more. 6 million is from like two years ago. You don't play with numbers you use same tools to project both players WAR going forward and current price of WAR and get your results. Where do you see the current price of WAR in arbitration is 8M? I tried to look around but I don't see a recent source that says 8M in arbitration. It's arbitration WAR that the teams would use. As I say, I just plugged some numbers and you can play with the numbers yourself to change the two variables as you see it. You could be right that the teams would give Trout credit for 9 WAR (his current level). I don't pretend to know. I don't have a dog in this hunt. I'm just trying to be helpful if I can be especially because you asked.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 2, 2016 21:23:02 GMT -5
Excess value in a contract is very different from "good." If a player is a massive superstar being paid for every bit of his value, then the player (or the player's contract) has an excess value of 0. That doesn't mean the player is any less good. I know what you meant by excess value. What I was saying was that the excess value you calculated for Teheran is completely wrong. You assume he will be an ace going forward when he isn't even pitching like an ace right now. He is just being lucky. Expect heavy regression to the mean going forward. You seem to understand about advanced stats but you blatantly ignore them when it doesn't fit your line of thinking. Poster after poster showed why dealing multiple top prospects would be a disaster in the long-term and you still haven't conceded any point in this thread. The assumption is that, if the Sox pull the trigger and take the offer that the Braves extended, then this is what they must be thinking. It has nothing whatsoever to do with me, or my opinions. I don't have a dog in this hunt. Personally, I'll miss Benny as much or more than anyone if he's gone. I'm just telling a story about the technical process of how teams negotiate using the arbiter of excess value, and efficiently arrive at a deal-point, for better or worse.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Jul 7, 2016 19:07:36 GMT -5
To be honest Shaw may be more valuable than Teheran in my opinion. He didn't have the top prospect pedigree like Teheran, but he's better by WAR standards and has more control.
Not only that, but I don't want Teheran. His 90 mph heat and lackluster stuff wouldn't play out to be anything but a back of rotation starter. If Shaw ends up having a 4 WAR season, he's going to have a ton of trade value with 1.5 seasons of great ball under his belt.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 7, 2016 19:16:21 GMT -5
Aaron Hill looks too good against righties to platoon. 2016 vs L as R OPS: .725 wRC+: 97 2016 vs R as R OPS: .803 wRC+: 112 Travis Shaw was one of the players the Braves offered to take for Teheran. By implication (I don't know this), the Sox may have put Travis Shaw on the list of players that were available. Hmm... coincidence? We'll see. Why is it so hard to believe they're trying to beef up the bench? They haven't been shy about their need for a RH hitting backup IF who could play 3b. Farrell said as much. They are not winning a playoff series without upgrading the SP. Hill is a much better player than your average bench player and could easily become your regular 3B. Flexibility yes. To make another deal. Shaw and a lower level system arm with a good upside could be a starting point to land a legit upper rotation arm. Holt and a lower rated Prospect for a veteran arm. With any luck maybe an arm for HRam with Shaw moving to 1B
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Post by trotfan on Jul 7, 2016 19:44:11 GMT -5
To be honest Shaw may be more valuable than Teheran in my opinion. He didn't have the top prospect pedigree like Teheran, but he's better by WAR standards and has more control. Not only that, but I don't want Teheran. His 90 mph heat and lackluster stuff wouldn't play out to be anything but a back of rotation starter. If Shaw ends up having a 4 WAR season, he's going to have a ton of trade value with 1.5 seasons of great ball under his belt. Have you seen him pitch? I'm just asking because he looked pretty good against the Cubs and that 90 mph sure jumped to 95 at will ...do you remember Pedro's late life and rise on his heater ? Go look at this kids tape it's impressive what he does ...The only thing I'm worried about with this kid is his shoulder ....tons of torque and lots of moving parts .
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Jul 7, 2016 19:55:24 GMT -5
To be honest Shaw may be more valuable than Teheran in my opinion. He didn't have the top prospect pedigree like Teheran, but he's better by WAR standards and has more control. Not only that, but I don't want Teheran. His 90 mph heat and lackluster stuff wouldn't play out to be anything but a back of rotation starter. If Shaw ends up having a 4 WAR season, he's going to have a ton of trade value with 1.5 seasons of great ball under his belt. Have you seen him pitch? I'm just asking because he looked pretty good against the Cubs and that 90 mph sure jumped to 95 at will ...do you remember Pedro's late life and rise on his heater ? Go look at this kids tape it's impressive what he does ...The only thing I'm worried about with this kid is his shoulder ....tons of torque and lots of moving parts . 90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable.
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Post by trotfan on Jul 7, 2016 20:07:55 GMT -5
Have you seen him pitch? I'm just asking because he looked pretty good against the Cubs and that 90 mph sure jumped to 95 at will ...do you remember Pedro's late life and rise on his heater ? Go look at this kids tape it's impressive what he does ...The only thing I'm worried about with this kid is his shoulder ....tons of torque and lots of moving parts . 90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. I don't agree and either does Dave ....the guys not Porch he's a legitimate top of the rotation guy ...with a Price ,Tehran ,Wright playoff rotation that seems pretty legit ...The guys an All star
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 7, 2016 20:36:50 GMT -5
Have you seen him pitch? I'm just asking because he looked pretty good against the Cubs and that 90 mph sure jumped to 95 at will ...do you remember Pedro's late life and rise on his heater ? Go look at this kids tape it's impressive what he does ...The only thing I'm worried about with this kid is his shoulder ....tons of torque and lots of moving parts . 90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. This year, he's been striking out a ton of righties (30%K, 27% K-BB). Since reducing his use of the sinker, he's also been death on lefties this year (.173 BABIP). T his year, Teheran is one of the top 15 or so pitchers. At 25 he is also one of the youngest, and has 5.5 years remaining on his contract (for $38M). The Sox have a deal in place for Teheran (or at least last week, had a deal) where one of their options is Moncada/ Shaw/Devers. Coincidence? We'll see....
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 7, 2016 20:41:28 GMT -5
90.9 mph average. If his stuff was that impressive he'd probably be able to strike more people out. He's a solid pitcher, just nothing remarkable. This year, he's been striking out a ton of righties (30%K, 27% K-BB, 2.84 xFIP). Since reducing his use of the sinker, he's also been death on lefties this year (.173 BABIP). T his year, Teheran is one of the top 15 or so pitchers. At 25 he is also one of the youngest, and has 5.5 years remaining on his contract (for $38M). The Sox have a deal in place for Teheran (or at least last week, had a deal) where one of their options is Moncada/ Shaw/Devers. Coincidence? We'll see.... And how do you know they have/had this deal in place? Because I'm calling bullshizzle
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 7, 2016 20:44:56 GMT -5
This year, he's been striking out a ton of righties (30%K, 27% K-BB, 2.84 xFIP). Since reducing his use of the sinker, he's also been death on lefties this year (.173 BABIP). T his year, Teheran is one of the top 15 or so pitchers. At 25 he is also one of the youngest, and has 5.5 years remaining on his contract (for $38M). The Sox have a deal in place for Teheran (or at least last week, had a deal) where one of their options is Moncada/ Shaw/Devers. Coincidence? We'll see.... And how do you know they have/had this deal in place? Because I'm calling bullshizzle I suggested that one of the SoxProspects writers could ask the Sox to confirm, as a scoop. You might get a no comment, but you won't get a denial.
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Post by dridiot on Jul 7, 2016 20:52:47 GMT -5
And how do you know they have/had this deal in place? Because I'm calling bullshizzle I suggested that one of the SoxProspects writers could ask the Sox to confirm, as a scoop. You might get a no comment, but you won't get a denial. To be fair, if it were me, I wouldn't be staking even a little bit of my reputation on what some guy on an internet forum said.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 7, 2016 20:58:03 GMT -5
And how do you know they have/had this deal in place? Because I'm calling bullshizzle I suggested that one of the SoxProspects writers could ask the Sox to confirm, as a scoop. You might get a no comment, but you won't get a denial. You stated they have or had a deal. How do you know this? Don't tell me you asked Soxprospects to ask but they may get a no comment. That's not an answer. As far as I can tell you're just making stuff up. You've been pushing for this deal for Tehran, and now resorting to making up trade proposals as facts.
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Post by trotfan on Jul 7, 2016 20:58:58 GMT -5
Daves kind of an open book on Trades he also gets what he wants ...I would be shocked if Tehran wasn't in tow with a teammate in the bull very soon .
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