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8/18-8/21 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2016 15:42:54 GMT -5
Eighth inning, top of the order up, rested bullpen. That's a situation where all logic says to use the guy that you think is your second-best reliever. If John Farrell thinks that Junichi Tazawa is their second-best reliever, he's frankly not a very good manager.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 18, 2016 15:43:21 GMT -5
I know it's super popular here to blame literally everything on Farrell, but can someone tell me how he lost this game for us? He brought in one of our best relievers in the 8th inning and he blew it. It sucks. But it has absolutely nothing to do with John Farrell Please back up your claim that this mid-August, flamed out version of Junichi Tazawa is "one of our best relievers". He still has good peripherals this year, and good projections. He's pitched like 39 innings. Give me a break with the "overused" crap. He's a good pitcher with good peripherals and a history of pitching well. Ziegler is a righty specialist. When you're going to face Aybar and V-Mart, Taz is a fine choice to use Ziegler, who is our 2nd best reliever, also came in and blew it
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2016 15:44:46 GMT -5
Please back up your claim that this mid-August, flamed out version of Junichi Tazawa is "one of our best relievers". Ziegler giving up a hit, a walk, and then another walk to a .220 hitter is blowing it, meaningless reliever stats notwithstanding. If you assume Zieger puts up the exact same performance except he started the inning, he'd have given up zero runs (and may have even gotten out of the game sooner-- the Bogaerts play would likely have been a double play if he weren't playing in).
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 18, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Eighth inning, top of the order up, rested bullpen. That's a situation where all logic says to use the guy that you think is your second-best reliever. If John Farrell thinks that Junichi Tazawa is their second-best reliever, he's frankly not a very good manager. When facing 2 switch hitters who hit well from the left side in one inning, Tazawa is not a bad choice as our 2nd best reliever.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 18, 2016 15:45:22 GMT -5
I think that the whole "it's the players on the field" argument is taking it to the absurd. If he were playing a lineup of utility guys while Betts, Ortiz, et al rode pine, you wouldn't blame the players for not winning games. A manager's job is to properly identify the best players for given roles, and to put them in position to succeed, and help the team succeed. That's it. Farrell simply is absolutely terrible at doing that with his bullpen. His in-game management has reproducibly lost games that they should win. The team reproducibly underperformed their run differential. They reproducibly have weak records in 1-run games. Those are (game) management issues.
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2016 15:47:39 GMT -5
Please back up your claim that this mid-August, flamed out version of Junichi Tazawa is "one of our best relievers". He still has good peripherals this year, and good projections. He's pitched like 39 innings. Give me a break with the "overused" crap. He's a good pitcher with good peripherals and a history of pitching well. Ziegler is a righty specialist. When you're going to face Aybar and V-Mart, Taz is a fine choice to use Ziegler, who is our 2nd best reliever, also came in and blew it Tazawa's velo has dropped 2 mph in the last month, and plenty of us in this very thread were complaining about his warming in the bullpen before he came in. This version of Tazawa absolutely is not a very good pitcher.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Aug 18, 2016 15:48:25 GMT -5
Yeah, even revising history to show Farrell is some great manager, today he is an idiot. But we move on because he is like a crappy tenured high school teacher. The people of his town just have to suck it up and keep sending their kids to him.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 18, 2016 15:49:45 GMT -5
I think that the whole "it's the players on the field" argument is taking it to the absurd. If he were playing a lineup of utility guys while Betts, Ortiz, et al rode pine, you wouldn't blame the players for not winning games. A manager's job is to properly identify the best players for given roles, and to put them in position to succeed, and help the team succeed. That's it. Farrell simply is absolutely terrible at doing that with his bullpen. His in-game management has reproducibly lost games that they should win. The team reproducibly underperformed their run differential. They reproducibly have weak records in 1-run games. Those are (game) management issues. What reason would we have to believe that a manager can affect how a team performs relative to their run differential?
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 18, 2016 15:50:07 GMT -5
Please back up your claim that this mid-August, flamed out version of Junichi Tazawa is "one of our best relievers". He still has good peripherals this year, and good projections. He's pitched like 39 innings. Give me a break with the "overused" crap. He's a good pitcher with good peripherals and a history of pitching well. Ziegler is a righty specialist. When you're going to face Aybar and V-Mart, Taz is a fine choice to use Ziegler, who is our 2nd best reliever, also came in and blew it Taz has 9+ FIP and 5+ ERA in the second half, with a normal BABIP. He's also throwing at a lower velocity with less movement than he was at the beginning of the year, per Brooks Baseball. He's stunk.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Aug 18, 2016 15:53:11 GMT -5
Ziegler came in under ridiculous leverage and let up a soft single and walked a great hitter before one bad walk. Probably would have been a much different story had he came in right away.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 18, 2016 15:53:12 GMT -5
I think that the whole "it's the players on the field" argument is taking it to the absurd. If he were playing a lineup of utility guys while Betts, Ortiz, et al rode pine, you wouldn't blame the players for not winning games. A manager's job is to properly identify the best players for given roles, and to put them in position to succeed, and help the team succeed. That's it. Farrell simply is absolutely terrible at doing that with his bullpen. His in-game management has reproducibly lost games that they should win. The team reproducibly underperformed their run differential. They reproducibly have weak records in 1-run games. Those are (game) management issues. What reason would we have to believe that a manager can affect how a team performs relative to their run differential? Because he puts the worst pitchers in the game at the most crucial time. Pitch Tazawa and Abad in 16-2 games instead. The only way to make this team Farrell-proof is to have 7 identically good relief pitchers so he can't make any bad choices. Although he'd probably overuse certain ones anyway making them less effective.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 18, 2016 15:54:04 GMT -5
Tazawa/Zeigler should be able to get three outs without completely blowing the game like that. Tazawa came in with a situation (a clean inning) that produces on average 0.49 runs. He then gave up a ran and left with a situation that produces on average 1.84 runs. Ziegler came in to said situation and gave up 2 runs. For those counting along at home, that's 2.35 runs below average for Tazawa and 0.16 runs below average for Ziegler. So yeah, splitting the blame 50-50 seems completely appropriate. EDIT: you could also say Ziegler was 0.84 runs better than average and 1 run charged to Bogaerts...
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 18, 2016 15:55:14 GMT -5
Yeah, Farrell doesn't know how to manage a bullpen well, but you can't ignore that these guys have just sucked at their job of getting batters out. Tazawa/Zeigler should be able to get three outs without completely blowing the game like that. You can't just ignore JF ruining Taz by clearly burning him out due to rampant overuse earlier in the season. Exactly. There seems to be a group that is either playing Devil's advocate or just being contrarians but the reason the pen is spent is because... Farrell spent them earlier in the season. Its not rocket science folks.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 18, 2016 15:56:15 GMT -5
Farrell being Farrell.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 18, 2016 16:04:03 GMT -5
Someone get on the horn to Pap smear.
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Post by Coreno on Aug 18, 2016 16:05:59 GMT -5
Lyons just earned my respect on the post-game show, completely calling out JF bullpen usage
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 18, 2016 16:08:18 GMT -5
I can't defend the manager for using Taz, so I'll focus on the good things that happened. Clay going 6 with only 1 run, and Sandy {I have no clue how he's doing it) going deep from the DH spot. Baseball is amazing.
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Post by malynn19 on Aug 18, 2016 16:16:52 GMT -5
This team is so damn aggravating. Their bullpen has emerged as the #1 culprit (or #2 behind Farrell) as why the Red Sox don't win as often as they should. If they'd knock off this BS, they'd be in first place by a few games. Instead they can never quite catch up because they give games away. At this point could Papelbon be any worse? (OF COURSE, HE CAN!! - but I'm willing to risk it!). I have to think if it was a slam dunk for Papelbon to want to come back, he'd be here already? I think Papelbon winds up with the Cubs, but we'll see. The bullpen would be way better if Ziegler and Kimbrel shared the closer role based on matchups and use Ross as the 3rd best reliever instead of the 6th best one. This is not going to happen, ever. No one shares the closer role, or has a closer by committee. We lost this game cause JF brought in Tazawa, forgetting that Miggy (who owns Taz) was coming up. Ziegler should have been the right choice and should be the 8th man always.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 18, 2016 16:36:20 GMT -5
I think that the whole "it's the players on the field" argument is taking it to the absurd. If he were playing a lineup of utility guys while Betts, Ortiz, et al rode pine, you wouldn't blame the players for not winning games. A manager's job is to properly identify the best players for given roles, and to put them in position to succeed, and help the team succeed. That's it. Farrell simply is absolutely terrible at doing that with his bullpen. His in-game management has reproducibly lost games that they should win. The team reproducibly underperformed their run differential. They reproducibly have weak records in 1-run games. Those are (game) management issues. What reason would we have to believe that a manager can affect how a team performs relative to their run differential? I'm genuinely having a hard time believing that this is a real question. But I'll answer anyway. Run differential can be used (originally Bill James's "Pythagorean" calculation, since modified to increase accuracy) to predict expected W-L record. It's been developed and tested empirically, and is quite accurate. Statistically speaking, there's a possible distribution of playing much worse to much better than the expected record. A normal distribution would predict that the highest-liklihood outcome is playing to, or within a couple games of, the expected record. Over the course of several years, random variation should bring the results closer and closer to the mean and median value. The more consistently that it falls on one side or the other (and the further from that "expected" point), the higher the liklihood that the distribution is NOT normal, and is subject to influence by an external variable. As you look over more seasons, the possibility of these variables decreases: player injuries, roster construction, etc, are different year to year. The remaining constant is the manager. If a team repeatedly underperforms what is predicted by chance based strictly on on-field performance (run differential), there's a reason for it. The Sox were 3 wins under in 2013, 1 under in 2014, 3 under last year, and are 3 under this year. Compare with, say, Terry Francona, whose Sox teams fluctuated around the mean, but who came out slightly ahead: m.bbref.com/m?p=XXteamsXXBOSXX
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Post by bluechip on Aug 18, 2016 16:39:21 GMT -5
Ziegler giving up a hit, a walk, and then another walk to a .220 hitter is blowing it, meaningless reliever stats notwithstanding. If you assume Zieger puts up the exact same performance except he started the inning, he'd have given up zero runs (and may have even gotten out of the game sooner-- the Bogaerts play would likely have been a double play if he weren't playing in). You cannot assume that though. Because sequencing chosen by Zeigler and the decisions by batters would have been different. all we can say is the Zeigler did not perform to the necessary level today. Was Tazawa terrible? Yes. Was Zeilger put in a tough spot? Yes. Did Zeigler pitch well? No.
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Post by p23w on Aug 18, 2016 16:42:26 GMT -5
You can't just ignore JF ruining Taz by clearly burning him out due to rampant overuse earlier in the season. Exactly. There seems to be a group that is either playing Devil's advocate or just being contrarians but the reason the pen is spent is because... Farrell spent them earlier in the season. Its not rocket science folks. Tazawa is on a pace to pitch less innings and make fewer appearances than any time in the last 4 years. The claims that he has been burned out is either totally bogus, or Junichi just cannot go the distance of a full season (without special care). So long as he is on the roster he needs to shoulder his load. If he can't throw 60 innings or make 60 appearances in 162 games he probably needs to be replaced. When he is good, he is very very good, but all to often he is horrid.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 18, 2016 16:44:46 GMT -5
If you assume Zieger puts up the exact same performance except he started the inning, he'd have given up zero runs (and may have even gotten out of the game sooner-- the Bogaerts play would likely have been a double play if he weren't playing in). You cannot assume that though. Because sequencing chosen by Zeigler and the decisions by batters would have been different. all we can say is the Zeigler did not perform to the necessary level today. Was Tazawa terrible? Yes. Was Zeilger put in a tough spot? Yes. Did Zeigler pitch well? No. I'd assume that most pitchers do better coming into a clean inning than to come into the mess he did where he had very little room for error.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 18, 2016 16:45:14 GMT -5
Taz is smoked from the manager this year. I feel bad for him. The Sox announcer said Zeigler had better numbers than Taz did. What does Farrell see in Taz lately? I feel bad but realy you had this game taken on a lame ass lineup. Buch did a good job by the way Wright couldn't pitch his start because of another decision by the Manager.
Why couldn't the umpire toss Farrell instead of Butterfield?
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Post by station13 on Aug 18, 2016 16:58:54 GMT -5
Exactly. There seems to be a group that is either playing Devil's advocate or just being contrarians but the reason the pen is spent is because... Farrell spent them earlier in the season. Its not rocket science folks. Tazawa is on a pace to pitch less innings and make fewer appearances than any time in the last 4 years. The claims that he has been burned out is either totally bogus, or Junichi just cannot go the distance of a full season (without special care). So long as he is on the roster he needs to shoulder his load. If he can't throw 60 innings or make 60 appearances in 162 games he probably needs to be replaced. When he is good, he is very very good, but all to often he is horrid. He has only pitch as a fulltime reliever since 2012, but in that time he has rack up 4th all time in Red Sox appearances. That was a partial arm for Boston 2012 and 2015 season. He appears cook.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 18, 2016 17:02:23 GMT -5
Because he puts the worst pitchers in the game at the most crucial time. Pitch Tazawa and Abad in 16-2 games instead.The only way to make this team Farrell-proof is to have 7 identically good relief pitchers so he can't make any bad choices. Although he'd probably overuse certain ones anyway making them less effective. I love this rationale. And I am sorry to pick on you here, because I know jmei was writing this regarding Barnes, and there have been many more posts like this. But I would ask, is there anyone here who could tell me the next 16-2 is going to come up? Or can someone tell me how many 3-1 games are going to occur over the next 5 days. The whole point is that JF has to make real time decisions, with only past usage as a barometer of workload. I hate losing this game, but the bullpen problems have been addressed by DD, multiple times through the offseason and year. The unit has collapsed, in part, because of the starting pitching woes throughout the year. Maybe JF made a mistake here, I don't know, but you just can't marginalize a reliever and pitch the same ones every game, or you'll risk overusing the good ones, as many think JF has done with Tazawa.
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