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9/27-9/29 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by dcsoxfan on Sept 28, 2016 21:50:16 GMT -5
The press will be celebrating Teflon Dave for winning the AL East, but when you think of the hit to the farm system for two players, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, who combined for 2 WAR, and one of whom likely won't pitch next year . . . The team wins are about 95% Theo and Ben anyways. I don't get why Dave should get any credit. I agree, but you know he will.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 28, 2016 21:56:56 GMT -5
Kimbrel's performance tonight is like the placekicker who comes in at the end of the game to win it with a 20-yard field goal -- and shanks it.
The thing is, you can't demote Kimbrel, because if you do, you know he'd completely implode. In the playoffs, he either has to be your closer, or kept off the roster.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2016 21:57:54 GMT -5
so what to do as an encore to that? Last four games are going to be odd. Getting the offense back in gear, and providing some key days off, I suspect. So weird to be happy and pissed off at the same time!
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Post by templeusox on Sept 28, 2016 21:58:35 GMT -5
so what to do as an encore to that? Last four games are going to be odd. Getting the offense back in gear, and providing some key days off, I suspect. So weird to be happy and pissed off at the same time! Something something Moncada
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Sept 28, 2016 22:01:24 GMT -5
so what to do as an encore to that? Last four games are going to be odd. Getting the offense back in gear, and providing some key days off, I suspect. So weird to be happy and pissed off at the same time! They'll need to win a couple of games. You don't want to go into the post season winning 1 or none of your last 6 games.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2016 22:05:16 GMT -5
I don't know what everyone's complaining about. We get to feel smart for knowing what a bad move the Kimbrel trade was and the Red Sox clinched the division!
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Post by Coreno on Sept 28, 2016 22:09:59 GMT -5
The Kimbrel narrative is pretty lazy right now. He pitched terrible tonight, but he had been lights out for the last month and a half. Hopefully just a terrible off night that he can forget about.
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Post by scarr0214 on Sept 28, 2016 22:10:35 GMT -5
Yes Kimbrel struggled but this is not the time to lose faith. He is still the best option we have regardless of what other guys have shown lately. Without Kimbrel at his best our odds of winning go down significantly.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2016 22:11:18 GMT -5
What an interesting period this franchise is in.
2011 - epic collapse 2012 - Valentine era - say no more! last! 2013 - Boston Strong - WC Champs 2014 - collapse to last 2015 - revisit last (but younger and more fun to watch) 2016 - worst/worst to first.
Can't say it's not fun...and predictable!
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Sept 28, 2016 22:11:52 GMT -5
The Kimbrel narrative is pretty lazy right now. He pitched terrible tonight, but he had been lights out for the last month and a half. Hopefully just a terrible off night that he can forget about. If there's a night he can forget about, it should be a little easier with this one. Clinching and a celebration should take the sting off.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 28, 2016 22:11:58 GMT -5
Koji is a party animal! LOL
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Post by kman22 on Sept 28, 2016 22:22:40 GMT -5
Of course the Rangers came from behind to win over the Brewers. 1.5 back for the AL #1 seed
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Post by templeusox on Sept 28, 2016 22:25:02 GMT -5
Of course the Rangers came from behind to win over the Brewers. 1.5 back for the AL #1 seed That's a good thing. You want the #2 seed.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 28, 2016 22:25:29 GMT -5
Of course the Rangers came from behind to win over the Brewers. 1.5 back for the AL #1 seed Good. I'd rather face the Indians than the WC winner.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Sept 28, 2016 22:27:42 GMT -5
Of course the Rangers came from behind to win over the Brewers. 1.5 back for the AL #1 seed That's a good thing. You want the #2 seed. Agreed. I don't want to have to play Toronto the last three of the year and then play them again to start the post season. And, the Sox played well on the road this year if they end up facing Texas' home field advantage.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 28, 2016 22:30:25 GMT -5
This is bizarre. The only thing I can think of is that he got all amped up to close out the division clincher and then got out to the mound and found out they already clinched and nothing matters. Idk man, just really strange. No. I think there is real cause for concern regarding Kimbrel's continued loss of control. He's not the elite closer he was from 2012 through 2014. Since his last horrible "cant find the plate" outing, Aug. 9th, he had walked 4 batters.
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Post by bigpupp on Sept 28, 2016 22:30:36 GMT -5
Don't miss the forest guys. Division Champs!
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 28, 2016 22:40:01 GMT -5
Teixeira hitting 205 and swinging like a rusty gate? Really?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2016 22:41:30 GMT -5
No. I think there is real cause for concern regarding Kimbrel's continued loss of control. He's not the elite closer he was from 2012 through 2014. Since his last horrible "cant find the plate" outing, Aug. 9th, he had walked 4 batters. His FIP/xFIP are 2.77/3.26. He is what he is - a good closer, not a great one. It's what he's been for two seasons now.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2016 22:54:47 GMT -5
So heading into the tail end of the season and heading for the playoffs...
In a good place - Porcello, ERod, Buccholz, Uehara, Ziegler, Ross....Pedey, Mookie, Brock and (before tonight) Benentendi (10 players)
Middling - some dipping, some rising - Price, Kimbrell, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, Scott, Tazawa....Hanley, Xander, Chris Young, JBJ, Papi, Hill (13)
Needing to pick things up or destined to be left off the playoff roster - Abad (leave him off!), Leon, Shaw (get with the program!) (3)
Of the middle category, I've love to see Xander figure out his swing/the strike zone a bit more, perhaps JBJ as well. And clearly, Sandy and Shaw are not in a great place
But - when we get beyond last night and tonight's losses, I think the team is in good shape for a long run.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 28, 2016 22:57:46 GMT -5
Long Day....fell asleep....wake up. Division Champs!! Congrats to the guys for a heckuva season. Now, that is out of the way, let's hope for some more good play and a little good luck in the playoffs.
Not gonna comment on a lot of these posts that can's see the forest for the trees regarding Kimbrel and tonight's victory.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2016 23:19:25 GMT -5
I don't think it's a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. I think it's more a case of imagining what's up ahead in that forest. The Sox have the best team in the league but it's not that hard to imagine seeing the season sabotaged by a Kimbrel implosion or whatever.
Kimbrel had a chance to make the victory seem like a real celebration, something he had a chance to do in Atlanta his rookie year and he blew that game, too. I just hope that when something is really on the line and you can't back in, that he doesn't get over-amped and totally lose control like that.
It's frustrating that we catch glimpses of how dominating Kimbrel can look like - and when he shows those glimpses I totally get why the Sox were willing to send Margot San Diego's way, but then he has those total meltdowns where he can't throw a strike to save his life. I hope that doesn't come in the post-season.
When the Red Sox have won the Series they had three lockdown closers who didn't beat themselves. Foulke, Papelbon, and Uehara dominated those post-seasons. The Sox need the same out of Kimbrel and seeing what we saw tonight is very worrisome to say the least.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2016 23:35:07 GMT -5
This is NOT Kelly's fault. Ok maybe about 10%. It's Kimbrel. The Run Expectancy with the bases full and 0 outs, with MLB's 2016 level of offense, is 2.32 runs. So it's 83% Kimbrel (3.32 / 4). If you use Win Probability, Kimbrel was -.163 wins per 1.0 of leverage and Kelly was -.071. That's 70% Kimbrel, a version that reflects that Kelly gave up 68% of the ultimately deciding run.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2016 23:44:10 GMT -5
That's a good thing. You want the #2 seed. Agreed. I don't want to have to play Toronto the last three of the year and then play them again to start the post season. And, the Sox played well on the road this year if they end up facing Texas' home field advantage. Coming into tonight, after adjusting for schedule, the Jays had a .585 expected Win% based on BaseRuns, and the Indians .566. Even if you toss in 10% Karma, where the Indians are +2.3 wins and the Jays -1.4, the edge is .584 to .568. So the Jays have been better over the course of the year. When you add in the Indians' rotation mess, there's zero question that they're a much easier opponent. Including 10% Karma, Jays have a .584 to .514 edge on the Rangers. The O's are .544. There's a solid chance that if we beat the Indians, we have home field in the ALCS. Meanwhile, who wins tomorrow's O's / Jays game likely determines who pitches for the Jays in the W/C game: probably Sanchez if they win, probably Liriano if they lose.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 28, 2016 23:47:18 GMT -5
Ugh, that was awful. Let's focus on the positives here shall we: Buchholz pitched very well and it bodes well for the post-season. Kimbrel sucked, but he's had a very inconsistent year all along, so let's hope this gets his bad game out of the way. The Jays also lost a game where they had a lead in the 9th so at least we're not alone tonight. Kelly got 2 big outs with the bases jacked and no outs, of course the HR happened and it was awful but dude was ice cold otherwise. The fact that the Yankees got the payback for that Hanley game is bad, but we can get a bigger payback and officially eliminate these motherf**kers tomorrow in their house with Hank Owens on the mound for the added insult. And the Red Sox have been streaky all year, so let them get their losing out of their systems before the post-season when the games matter again.
Major shoutout to my man John Farrell for becoming the first Red Sox manager since Joe Morgan to win 2 AL East titles. I know a lot of you deeply dislike him and will try to tell me that the team won despite of him, but save it. Dude's awesome and win or lose the team is always in the game and always have a big fight. Very happy to see him beat that awful disease and come back and just deliver.
I'm really hoping we get a World Series against the Giants, that would be a terrific way for David to retire, beating the one team with as many WS titles as he has this century.
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